7-12-13

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ScLiveDogs

Friday MLB
Why we like the Mets on Friday at +120...here we have a Mets team that is playing good ball right now going 5-2 in their past 7 games while averaging 6.4 rpg and allowing just 4.1 rpg during that stretch. During the Pirates past 7 games, they have seen a 2-5 record while averaging just 3 rpg and allowing 2.9 rpg during that stretch. More importantly for this Pirates team is that they have now seen their July record slip to 3-6 and after a 17-9 June, with that being said, you have to wonder how this Pirates team will react after a day off and knowing that they are a few days away from the All-Star Break. The Mets will be pitching Jeremy Hefner who is not getting much respect this season as he has posted a 3.39 era through 101 innings of work as well as posting a 1.35 era through his last 20 innings of work where he went 2-0 in his last two starts as an underdog of +120 & +130. Hefner has not been afraid of pitching in road games either as he has a respectable 3.74 road era through 53 innings of work as well as allowing just 5 runs through his last 26 road innings on 24 Ks, 4 BBs & 2 HRs in the above average offensive ballparks of Nationals Park, Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field & Miller Park. The Pirates will be pitching Charlie Morton who is making just his 6th start of the season where he has posted a 3.37 in his previous 24 innings of work. Morton has not fared so well of late where he has posted a 4.61 era over his last 14 innings of work against the below average offensive teams of the Cubs, Brewers & Angels where he allowed 13 hits on 8 BBs, 11 Ks, & 2 HRs. An interesting trend with Morton is that his worst starts have come on 5 days of rest (Fridays start will be on 5 days of rest) where in 2013 he has made just one start on 5 days of rest where he allowed 4 runs through 6 innings on 7 hits & 2 HRs. When we look at Mortons 2012 numbers on 5 days of rest, he carried a 5.33 through 25 innings on 34 hits, 8 BBs & just 15 Ks. In Mortons career against the Mets, he is 0-2 with a 4.91 era while the Pirates are 0-4 in games that he has started against the Mets. From a bullpen standpoint, the Pirates do have the home edge with a 2.25 era but we do have to make notice that the Mets bullpen has improved greatly as of late and are not a caution bullpen at this point of the season.
Play on the Mets at +120.

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BRYAN LEONARD

2* Boston Red Sox ML
2* SF Giants ML
2* Houston +1.5

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 7.5 - Redsox/A's

50* Phillies -135

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB COLORADO at LA DODGERS

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) average hitting team (AVG =.255 to .269) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL
41-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 48.2% 36.8 units )
1-9 this year. ( 10.0% -6.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY METS at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 44-27 (+23.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

The average score was: PITTSBURGH (3.8) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA CHICAGO at CONNECTICUT

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 75 points or more
115-62 since 1997. ( 65.0% 46.8 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )

WNBA CHICAGO at CONNECTICUT

Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season, after scoring 75 points or more
197-73 since 1997. ( 73.0% 0.0 units )
6-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at SAN ANTONIO

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in July games
92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% 40.3 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

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Joe Gavazzi Friday:

MLB
Colorado (Nicasio) at LA Dodgers (Kershaw) (-240, -1 ½ runs -115) 10:10 ET

4% LA Dodgers (Kershaw) (-240, -1 ½ runs -115)

The return to the lineup of potentially big bats Fowler and Tulowitzki did little to help the struggling Rockies in a 6-1 loss Thursday night to LAD. Following a 13-4 start, the Rockies enter tonight on negative runs of 31-45 and 7-15. Their fortunes would not seem likely to improve in this pitching matchup against the hottest team in baseball who has gone 16-3 of late. The Dodgers 5 straight victories have pushed them past the .500 mark at 46-45 as they continue to surge in tracking down Arizona for the Division lead. On the mound, it is no contest. Before being sent to the Minors for a tuneup, Nicasio had a record of 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in his previous 7 starts. Those numbers may not improve against an LAD team as Nicasio has a 5.22 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Dodgers. Kershaw has a head-scratching 5-5 TRGS from this mound despite posting an ERA of 1.60, 0.92 WHIP and .195 OBA. But the Dodgers have won his last 7 starts from this mound against Colorado where he has a 1.21 ERA. In a trio of recent starts, Kershaw has gone 3-0 allowing just 3 runs in 25 IP. Run line players take note: 13/14 recent Colorado losses have come by 2 or more runs as well as 11/13 recent road losses. For the season, 20/26 LAD home wins have been by 2 or more runs. 17/19 LAD wins have been by 2 or more runs including 9 straight. Consider a portion of your wager on the run line.



Cincinnati (Arroyo) at Atlanta (Medlen) (-135) 7:30 ET

4% Atlanta (Medlen) (-135)

The home/road dichotomy of these teams and pitchers is a solid basis for this selection. After losing 6-5 to Atlanta last night, the Reds are now 21-25 away. Arroyo has been part of that problem. In 6 away starts, Arroyo is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA. In his most recent 2 starts, Arroyo is 0-2 allowing 12 runs in 9 2/3 IP. The Braves play remains outstanding on this field with a home record of 30-13 including 19-6 home following a victory. With Medlen working to a 2.83 ERA in 9 starts from this mound, the home/road dichotomy is completed. Please note that in his last 4 overall starts against Atlanta, Arroyo has a 5.91 ERA.



LA Angels (Williams) (-110) at Seattle (Saunders) 10:10 ET

3% Seattle (Saunders) EVEN

Well aware that the Angles remain on positive runs of 17-8 and 11-3. But that has been with no help from Williams. In his last 4 starts, Williams has an 8.47 ERA including allowing 12 runs in only 4 2/3 IP of his most recent 2 starts. He must be considered a pure play against for this start. Saunders is in far better current form posting a 2-0 recent record while allowing only 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 IP. In a pair of starts vs. his former employer, Saunders has a 1.93 ERA. Though his work from this mound has declined a bit in the recent past, his lifetime record, when pitching from this bump remains 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA.



Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Philadelphia (Pettibone) (-125) 7:05 ET

4% Philadelphia (Pettibone) (-125)

Break up the Pale Hose. CWS comes off a series win at Detroit in which they scored 22 runs while batting .358 for a 2-1 record the last 3 nights. That is still not going to deter us from fading them in this pitching matchup. Despite those victories, CWS remains on negative slides of 12-29 and 4-11 with one of the worst offenses in the league. That does not figure to get any better in this pitching matchup or vs. a surging Philadelphia team who has won 7/10 to pull within 1 game of .500. I have recently authored articles entitled “TRGS Home/Road Dichotomies” available at WSA Sports Picks. I have taken a look at the all-important home/road splits for MLB pitchers for the 1st half of 2013. Each of these starters are on the list for his respective work home and away. In 5 road starts, both Danks and the White Sox are 0-5 as he has twirled to 6.43 ERA with a .310 OBA. Conversely, Philadelphia is 7-1 in 8 Pettibone home starts in which he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Pitching in excellent current form, Pettibone has a 2.35 ERA in his last 4 starts. Look for him to cool off the temporary offensive surge of the White Sox.


WNBA
3% Chicago Sky -5

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS---Billy Joe Hershey
Astros+1.5
Detroit Tigers
Boston Redsox

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Hondo

Formerly sizzling Hondo had his winning streak snapped at seven last night when the Reds failed in Atlanta.
Tonight, one more time, kids — on Arroyo and the Reds to shut down the Medlen cartel in Atlanta.

Reds

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - DODGERS -1.5 [Run Line] (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Nicasio vs Kershaw
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

The Dodgers continue to roll with a 6-1 victory last night over the Rockies. That is 5 straight wins and they've scored 6+ runs in 5 straight. The Rockies got very little going offensively and they've now lost 8 of their last 11 games, and they've scored 1 or fewer runs in 5 of 7. Tonight we've got a pitching mis-match with Juan Nicasion on the mound for Colorado and ace Clayton Kershaw taking the rubber for the Dodgers. Nicasio is 4-4 on the season with a 5.31 ERA, .271 OBA and 1.46 WHIP. Even though he pitches in a hitters friendly park his ERA rises to 5.68 ERA on the road over 9 starts with opponents hitting .303 off him. In his last three starts he has lasted no more than 5.2 innings giving up 5, 2 and 6 earned runs for a 9.00 ERA. Kershaw is 8-5 on the season with a 1.89 ERA, .186 OBA and 0.90 WHIP. At home he has a microscopic 1.60 ERA, .195 OBA and 0.92 WHIP. Over his last three starts he's pitched 8+ innings allowing just 3 earned runs in total for a 1.08 ERA. The Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 overall, 21-43 in their last 64 road games dating back to last year, 3-8 in their last 11 divisvional games, and 14-37 in their last 51 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall, 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite, 7-1 in their last 8 home games, and 10-1 in their last 11 vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. They are akso 39-13 in Kershaw's last 58 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts vs the Rockies (4-1 in his last 5 vs them overall). I look for the Dodgers to continue with the hot bats and Kershaw to limit the Rockies tonight. Take the Dodgers on the run line.

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB
ST LOUIS -121 CHICAGO (4PM)

WASHINGTON -1.5 -115 MIAMI (7PM)

LA DODGERS -1.5 -120 COLORADO (10PM)

WNBA
SA -3 WASHINGTON (8PM)

MARC

MLB
TORONTO/BALTIMORE - OVER 9.5 +105 (7PM)

SF/SD - OVER 8 +105 (10PM)

CFL
CALGARY/MONTRAL - OVER 53.5 (730PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's National League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's National League games:

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (+114, NA)

Hot pitching stat: Cubbies starter Carlos Villanueva is 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 27 appearances (eight starts) against St. Louis.

Cold batting stat: St. Louis C Yadier Molina, who leads the National League with a .339 average, is 4-for-21 against Villanueva.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies. Winds will blow in from center field at seven mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Chicago.


New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-143, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Mets starter Jeremy Hefner has yielded one earned run in six of his last seven turns and did so on just two hits over seven innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start on July 7.

Hot batting stat: New York OF Marlon Byrd has collected 10 hits - three homers - during his five-game hitting streak.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures in the mid-70s and wind blowing in from left field at six mph.

Key betting stat: The Pirates are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day.


Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+168, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Nats hurler Stephen Strasburg owns a 5-2 career mark with a 2.77 ERA in 10 meetings with the Marlins.

Hot batting stat: Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 6-for-16 (.375) in his career versus Strasburg.

Weather: The roof could be closed in Miami today as there is a 50 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting stat: The under is 6-2 in Strasburg's last eight starts vs. the Marlins.


Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-138, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Bronson Arroyo has struggled away from home, going 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA and only 14 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings on the road.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati CF Shin-Soo Choo extended his hitting streak to nine games with two hits Thursday. He is hitting .405 during the streak.

Weather: There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow in from center field at five mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 6-1 in umpire Rob Drake's last seven games behind home plate.


Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-161, 8)

Hot pitching stat: DBacks starter Patrick Corbin rebounded from his lone loss of the season by scattering three hits and matching a season high with 10 strikeouts in eight sterling innings against Colorado on Sunday.

Hot batting stat: Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy belted his fourth homer in five games and has driven in seven runs during that span.

Weather: The roof may be closed in Arizona due to a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low-100s.

Key betting stat: The Brewers are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Arizona.


Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-243, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw enters Friday having worked at least eight innings in each of his last three starts - all victories - while allowing a total of three runs in that span.

Cold batting stat: Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki (rib) and CF Dexter Fowler (wrist) each went 0-for-4 Thursday after being activated from the disabled list earlier in the day.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at seven mph.

Key betting stat: The Dodgers are 7-0 in Kershaw's last seven home starts vs. the Rockies.


San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (+103, 8)

Cold pitching stat: The Giants have lost SP Chad Gaudin's last three starts.

Cold batting stat: The Giants have scored a major league-low 25 runs in July, while the Padres’ 30 runs is tied with the Colorado Rockies for the third-worst mark.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at four mph.

Key betting stat: The Padres are 0-8 in their last eight games as an underdog.


Interleague

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-123, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone owns a 3-1 mark with a 2.45 ERA at home this year. The Phillies are 7-1 in his eight home starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: The Sox exploded for 22 runs in their three-game series versus the Tigers as they took two of three from their AL Central foes.

Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow in from right field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The White Sox are 3-16 in starter John Danks' last 19 Friday starts.

* Weather, odds, probable starters as of 10:20 a.m. ET

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Friday's American League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Friday's American League games:

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-146, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Indians starter Corey Kluber snapped out of a funk in his last turn, limiting Detroit to two runs and matching a season high with 10 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings.

Cold batting stat: Indians 1B Mark Reynolds is 2-for-28 with 14 strikeouts in July.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Wind will blow in from right field at 12 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 36-15-2 in the last 53 meetings.


Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-138, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Jays starter Mark Buehrle is coming off one of his best starts of the season, as he held the Minnesota Twins to six hits in seven scoreless innings last Friday.

Cold batting stat: Jays slugger Jose Bautista is 2-for-19 with one RBI in his last five games.

Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow in from right field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The Blue Jays are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Baltimore.


Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-182, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yanks starter Hiroki Kuroda has been strong at home, logging a 5-2 record and 1.89 ERA in nine starts.

Hot batting stat: Twins 1B Justin Morneau is 3-for-3 with two homers against Kuroda.

Weather: A 50 percent chance of rain is in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s and wind will blow in from center field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The Twins are 12-39 in the last 51 meetings in New York.


Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-178, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Tigers starter Doug Fister is winless in his last four turns and has been knocked around for six earned runs in three of those outings, including the last two.

Hot batting stat: Tigers 3B Miguel Cabrera smashed his 30th home run on Thursday. He has 12 homers in 56 career games against the Rangers.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Wind will blow from left field to right field at seven mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 10-3-1 in Fister's last 14 starts versus a team with a winning record.


Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-301, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays ace David Price has been outstanding since returning from a strained left triceps, yielding one run over 16 innings in two victories.

Hot batting stat: Rays CF Desmond Jennings was 8-for-18 in the recent series versus Houston from July 1 to July 4.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting stat: The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a home favorite.


Boston Red Sox at Oakland A's (-111, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: A's starter Jarrod Parker has not lost since May 22 and has not allowed more than three runs in an outing since May 6.

Hot batting stat: Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury has hit safely in 19 straight games and is batting .413 during the streak.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: The Red Sox are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings.


Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (+107, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Halos starter Jerome Williams has been crushed in his last two starts, allowing a combined 12 runs (11 earned) in 4 2/3 innings against St. Louis and Boston.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 3B Kyle Seager has hit in 11 straight games. His homer Thursday gave the team at least one blast in its 19th straight contest, tying a club record set Sept. 11-27, 1999.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the high-60s. Wind will blow from left field to right field at six mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 4-1 in Williams' last 5 starts vs. Mariners.

* Weather, odds, probable starters as of 10:20 a.m. ET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

20* Giants

10* Mariners over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportwagers 7/12

Today's Free Picks for Jul 12, 2013





Chicago @ PHILADELPHIA
Chicago +116 over PHILADELPHIA

There’s a chance the White Sox revert back to their old ways after taking two of three in Detroit but winning is contagious and the 22 runs that the South Side scored at Comerica sure had to feel good. Chicago did some serious damage against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and if that doesn’t springboard them, nothing will. Chicago’s run heading to the All-Star break could definitely continue here with John Danks going. Danks has now thrown three straight pure quality outings and is starting to round into form since returning from the DL in late May. Over his last three starts, covering 21.1 frames, Danks has issued just three walks while striking out 16. His 3.77 xERA confirms he’s been tough so expect his ERA to inch downward as a 16% hr/f regresses. Danks gets a favorable matchup rating here against the Phillies, who are hitting just .247 against lefties this season.
Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 15 starts but his 3.84 ERA is likely heading south. Pettibone doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace (27 in 84 IP) but with just 55 K’s, he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip, either. Pettibone’s decent ERA is a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Pettibone is just 22 years old and though there’s not a lot of upside in his arm or arsenal, he has a classic innings-eater frame (6-6, 225). He’s also shown a composure on the mound that adds to the belief that he’ll have a substantial MLB career as a middle/low rotation type. However, there’s not lot of room for error in his stuff and he’s going to have several implosions every season over the course of his career. This could be one of them against a suddenly confident group of hitters.

Our Pick
Chicago +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)






N.Y. Mets @ PITTSBURGH
N.Y. Mets +127 over PITTSBURGH

No question that the Pirates are an improved team but they are not the second best team in baseball as their record suggests and there’s clear proof of that. The Pirates’ hitters are among the leaders in strikeouts and that does not correlate with being a .600 club. Pittsburgh’s .243 team batting average is comparable to the Mets, Marlins, Astros, Cubs and Mariners and we all know what those teams have in common. With a meek offense and a starting rotation that is average at best, expect the Pirates to sink faster than Ilya Kovalchuk’s popularity in New Jersey. This overachieving team is going to be a good fade and we’ll continue to play against them unless they show us something else. Charlie Morton has held his own in his five starts since returning from TJ surgery but a 1.33 WHIP and 15 runs against (9 earned) reminds us that this is still Charlie Morton. Morton has a career BAA of .289 and a career ERA of 4.98 in 497 career innings. Backing Morton and the Pirates at a price is a poor risk.
The Mets have won four in a row and five of six. In those five wins they scored 35 times and that includes 21 runs scored at San Fran in a big-time pitcher’s park. Jeremy Hefner's numbers have been some of the best in baseball lately as he's gone 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last six outings. While he obviously won't keep this up all season (90% strand rate in the last month), there's some real skill growth going on here. Hefner has a 7/30 BB/K rate over his last 37 innings to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53% and an even more impressive line-drive rate of just 14%. Hefner has been downright dominant recently at some difficult venues that include Miller Park, Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park. He’s also allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts and the Mets have won his last five in a row. Chances are they make it six here.

Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)






Minnesota @ N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +117 over Minnesota

The All-Star break can’t get here soon enough for the Twins. They lost again yesterday for the fifth straight time, they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 and they have just four wins in their past 20 games. Scott Diamond is one of the worst skilled pitchers in baseball and if he were on any other team he would be a mop-up guy or in the minors. In 88 innings, Diamond has 42 K’s and a 1.53 WHIP. Over his past five starts, he has a 1.63 WHIP and a 6.36 ERA. His groundball rate has been getting progressively worse with each passing month and it is now at a season low 32% over his past four starts. Diamond is running out of gas. He’s been tagged for six jacks over his last 16.1 innings. He’s struck out two batters or less in three of his last five starts. In his last start, he walked four Blue Jays while striking out one. Diamond has lost whatever confidence he did have and he’s probably dreading taking the hill today to face a Yankees team coming off back-to-back eight-run outbursts. The team he pitches for has also lost confidence.
The Yanks are not in bad shape. They are just six games out with this three-game set upcoming heading into the break. Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, as he continues to flourish. His skills have even taken a step up in a tough ballpark, especially in the past month in which Kuroda has posted a 2.62 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over five starts. A 50% groundball rate and a low 15% line-drive rate confirms that Kuroda is gamely fighting off his 38 years. The Yanks rarely lose when Kuroda pitches at home, as his 5-2 record and 1.89 home ERA will attest to. That said, this one is all about fading Scott Diamond.

Our Pick
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)






Toronto @ BALTIMORE
Toronto +127 over BALTIMORE

The Orioles are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rangers but they only have three wins in their past eight games and their offense is trending the wrong way. Over their past 10 games, the O’s are hitting just .220, which ranks ahead of only Houston and San Fran over that stretch. They are hitting just .248 against lefties the entire season and just .196 against southpaws over their last 10 games. Overall, the Orioles are just 7-7 at home against lefties and will face a crafty one here in Mark Buehrle. Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and outstanding command. While Buehrle struggled early in his shift to the AL East, he’s been coming on strong with an ERA of 3.00 over his past five starts to go along with an increasing 44% groundball rate, up from 38% in his first three months as a Blue Jay. Buehrle is more than capable of containing a cold hitting squad.
The main reason for this choice is wagering against Chris Tillman, whose skills are deteriorating rather quickly. Over his last 29 frames, Tillman was walked 15 batters while whiffing 19. His xERA of 5.74 over the past month is more than 1½ runs higher than his actual 3.99 ERA. Tillman has an ugly 33%/29%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball/ profile over his last five starts to go along with a brutal 1.68 WHIP. Chris Tillman is 10-3 with a 3.92 ERA and that has this below average pitcher extremely overvalued. He’s on the verge of a string of serious implosions and will remain on our radar as fade material.

Our Pick
Toronto +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportwagers CFL 7/12

Today's Free Picks for Jul 12, 2013





Calgary @ MONTREAL**
Calgary +130 over MONTREAL**

The Alouettes are 1-1 after opening the season with back-to-back games against the Blue Bombers. They should be 0-2 and it should’ve been two blowout losses. Winnipeg turned the ball over six times last week and the Als scored 11 points. In Week 1, Winnipeg turned the ball over four times, yet Montreal needed a 14-0 fourth quarter to win that one. The Als 1-1 record is a gift from heaven because this team should be 0-2 on way to their worst record in more than a decade. Anthony Calvillo was great in his day but his day has long past, as he’s now 41 years old and very few QB’s in the history of this game, be it CFL or NFL, have been able to thrive over the age of 40. The Als played a rather pedestrian offense in the first two weeks and will not be well-prepped to deal with the wrath of this Stampeders offense.
Calgary is 1-1 after an opening day blowout win over B.C and a subsequent loss to Saskatchewan. That loss to Saskatchewan was by no means an ugly one. Let’s not forget that it came the week after a hugely, emotional opening day win after the devastating floods the week before. The Als are favored here because Drew Tate will sit this one out and that actually works to our advantage in terms of the price being offered. Kevin Glenn is not Drew Tate but he’s an extremely capable back-up that went 9-5 for the Stamps last year after Tate was injured. Glenn compiled 4,220 yards in passing for 25 touchdowns and a completion rate of 66.7 per cent. He’s not going to come out cold either. Glenn played last week and has been taking first-team snaps all week in practice. Glenn knows this offense and he has various weapons to utilize. Calgary is the vastly superior team here on both offense and defense. After a disappointing Week 2 loss, expect this juggernaut of a team to rebound and rally behind Glenn. The Alouettes, meanwhile could be dregs the entire year and in no way should they be favored over this visitor. How does one take away the ball six times, score just 11 points and lose? Keep the points. Stamps outright.

Our Pick
Calgary +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)