7-17-13

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MLB Top 4: Best over/under bets after the break
By JASON LOGAN

Betting totals in the second half of the MLB schedule can be tricky. The summer heat can turn deep flys into home runs while playoff contenders sharpen their staff down the stretch, keeping runs at a minimum.

These four clubs, however, have proved to be profitable for the over or the under after the All-Star break over the past five seasons:

Records from 2008-2012.

Best post-break over bets

Minnesota Twins (185-157-24 over/under)

The Twins have leaned toward the over since opening the doors to Target Field back in 2010, owning a 113-99-12 over/under mark in those three full seasons. Minnesota is 41-49-2 over/under at the break, with a 23-21 O/U mark at home.

San Diego Padres (184-163-10 over/under)

San Diego’s pitching woes have been a blessing to over bettors the past two seasons. The Padres went 40-27-3 over/under after the break in 2011 and 42-32-1 over/under in the post-ASG schedule last summer. San Diego continues to cough up runs – ranked 25th in ERA – and is currently the top over bet in the National League at the break.

Best post-break under bets

Tampa Bay Rays (157-192-13 over/under)

The Rays have topped the American League in unders after the break the past two seasons, going a collective 59-82-7 over/under. Tampa Bay is accustomed to being in playoff contention down the stretch and its pitching staff has kept opponents in check. The Rays enter the break with a 46-43-7 over/under mark this season.

Philadelphia Phillies (160-188-13 over/under)

The Phillies’ talented staff gets a lot of the glory for Philadelphia’s under success, but the truth is that the bats haven’t been that great in recent seasons. The Phillies went 30-42-3 over/under last summer, hitting .246 and averaging 4.2 runs while boasting a collective 3.37 ERA – fifth best in the majors after the break.

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British Open Championship betting action report
By JASON LOGAN

Golf bettors are tuning up for the third major tournament of the PGA Tour season, The British Open Championship, which calls Muirfield Golf Links in East Lothian, Scotland home this week.

We talked with Aron Black of UK sportsbook Bet365.com, about the betting action on not only outright winner odds but also the various props and specials available for the British Open.

Favorites

Tiger Woods heads into the Open Championship as the betting favorite, as he does with most major tournaments. Woods opened at +700 and has been moved to +900, nursing an elbow injury and riding a major drought since winning the 2008 U.S. Open.

“In his prime, he was regularly around +300 to +350 to win the British Open, so 9-to-1 will look like a great price for some,” says Black, who told Covers the tempting price tag and Top-7 Each Way odds has more money on Tiger than normal.

Phil Mickelson is also drawing his share of the money. Mickelson won the Scottish Open last week and watched his odds bounce from as high as 25-to-1 to as low as 15-to-1. Bet365.com is currently deal Mickelson at +1,800.

“Always a popular bet for any major, and given the course conditions and forecast of a lot of sunshine, Phil is the most popular bet for the outright win,” says Black.

Other players drawing notable action is U.S. Open champ Justin Rose (+1,800), Jason Day (+3,300), and defending champion Ernie Els, who also won the last Open Championship at Muirfield in 2002.

“Defending champs are usually popular bets and when they are players with quality and experience like Els, it’s no surprise he is a popular bet,” says Black.

One favorite not drawing as expected is Rory McIlroy, who was as high as +800 in the early Open Championship odds. Not only is McIlroy not bringing in outright winner money at +2,800 but bettors don’t even expect him to place among the Top 7 in the Each Way market.

“He hasn’t shown much this year and obviously there is a lot of talk as to whether the reasons are the new clubs or his high-profile relationship with Caroline Wozniacki,” says Black. “But this might be the stage to fix that after recent testing at Nike’s London base with his driver, which according to him went very well.”

Popular long shots

The last 19 major tournaments have been won by 18 different golfers, which means there could be plenty of value with some lesser-name talents this week.

According to Black, Branden Grace (+6,600) is winning over long-shot bettors after finishing second to Mickelson at the Scottish Open last weekend.

“He’s one of the up-and-coming European Golfers,” Black says of Grace. “Given his performance last week, it’s no surprise to see him getting support, but he’s got a lot of quality and experience players ahead of him in the book to contend with.”

Nicolas Colsaerts (+6,600 to +6,000), Bill Haas (+8,500) and Martin Laird (+10,000) are other long shots drawing some surprise action.

“(Laird) has a win under his belt at the Texas Open, and obviously has more familiarity with the likes of Muirfield than most, being from Scotland,” says Black. “Add to that his overall experience with links courses. He had a strong joint fifth finish last week at the Scottish Open, being tipped by golf tipsters over here for a place finish.”

Props and matchups

As mentioned above, golf bettors aren’t too high on McIlroy (-110) and are playing against him in his matchup with Lee Westwood (-110). Mickelson (-125) is getting the lion’s share of the love in his head-to-head odds with Ernie Els (+105).

“The money in this matchup is all about the ‘Thrill’,” says Black. “We haven’t seen much support for Els. Most think that even though he’s the defending champ, he’s not going to finish ahead of Phil according to the punters.”

The prop for “Winner from...”, which allows bettors to pick where the Open Championship winner calls home, is attracting solid action (Europe +120, USA +150, Rest of World +300). Most years, Europe draws the bulk of the money for the British Open. But the nice weather in the forecast has more action siding with an American winner.

“A lot of tipsters over here are making noises about the U.S. golfers being the ones to back, so it’s not a surprise to see that a lot of punters taking the U.S. golfers as a group,” says Black.

The Hole-In-One prop is another popular play, with Muirfield presenting a sorter track than most major venues. “Yes” there will be a Hole-In-One is currently set at +110 and taking more than “No” which is priced at -138.

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British Open Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

Golf betting hits the third major of the season with the 142nd edition of The Open Championship taking place from Muirfield Golf Links in East Lothian, Scotland.

This is the 16th time Muirfield has hosted The Open Championship with the last coming in 1992. That year it was won by Ernie Els, who won in a four-hole playoff (still the playoff format) over Thomas Levet, Stuart Appleby and Steve Elkington. Els is also is the defending champion after defeating Adam Scott by one shot at Royal Lytham & St. Annes last year.

Muirfield is a Par-71, 7,192-yard track that has a very unique setup with one nine-hole layout situated inside another. The outside nine runs one way with the inside nine going the opposite direction which makes navigating the wind that much more difficult. Even though it is called a links course, it is not a traditional one. The holes are long but the fairways are firm, so hitting the ball low and straight will provide some opportunities to score. Hitting the ball offline will get you in trouble though.

Wind and rain are the norm when it comes to The Open Championship and that is certainly the case at Muirfield, where the weather off the Scottish coast can be brutal. That was evidenced back in 2002 when Saturday was played in some of the worst weather possible and scores averaged 74.6 - over four shots more than any of the other three days. This year though, the forecast is pretty tame with light winds and high temperatures. But Mother Nature can always take a turn.

While the thought is that the majors are dominated by the world's best players, it has hardly been the case. Of the last 19 majors, there have been 18 different winners with Rory McIlroy being the only two-time major champion.

Not since 2008 has there been a repeat major winner. Padraig Harrington is the last player to do so, winning The Open Championship and PGA Championship back-to-back. It will be up to Justin Rose this week to break that streak after capturing his first major at the U.S. Open last month.

American players had won three straight majors after Webb Simpson's victory at the 2012 U.S. Open but are zero for their last four. Since 1995 at St. Andrews, Americans have won 11 of the 18 Open Championships. However, recent history is not on their side as Stewart Cink is the lone American to win The Open Championship over the last six years in a playoff over Tom Watson at Turnberry in 2009.

As mentioned, the defending champion is Els (+2,800) who also was the winner the last time Muirfield hosted The Open Championship. Those two victories have a lot of people excited for Ernie to win again and he is getting solid odds to go along with that. However, it is difficult to repeat. Els could be in the mix over the weekend, there are better options out there.

Is favorite Tiger Woods (+700) one of those options? Personally I don't think so, especially at this price. His major drought is well documented and, while he is going to win another one at some point, this isn't the one. He has been playing great this year no doubt and he has three Open Championship wins but his injured elbow is a concern no matter how healthy he says it is.

Jason Day (+2,500) is my top pick this week despite his lackluster record here. His first Open Championship resulted in a T60 in 2010 and he then finished T30 the next year before not competing in 2012. His majors record since then has been spectacular with a third at the Masters and a T2 at the U.S. Open. He played his practice round at Muirfield Monday with no woods in his bag, which is the way to win.

Lee Westwood (+2,800) continues to disappoint when it comes to majors and not being able to secure one. He has 15 Top 10s in major tournaments for his career including nine Top 5s and seven Top 3. There are not many players that have been closer without winning and he is very due. At The Open Championship, he has three Top-4 finishes, including a solo second in 2010.

Only one player has finished in the Top 15 in the last three Open Championships and that is Dustin Johnson (+4,000). His T14 in 2010 was followed up with a T2 in 2011 and a T9 last year, so he clearly has played well on the other side of the pond. He’s known for being a bomber but he is a great player in the wind and the different gusts and directions could benefit him more than anyone.

Nicolas Colsaerts (+5,000) has made only two Open Championship appearances but one of those came last year when he finished T7. He is the longest hitter on tour and keeping those big hits straight will put him in contention. He has just three Top 10s this year but one of those came at the U.S. Open. He has not lived up to the hype since his play at the Ryder Cup but this could be his breakout.

Thorbjorn Olesen (+10,000) will be a big long-shot play this week but contains incredible value. He won in Europe last year at the Sicilian Open and since then, he has six other Top-6 finishes, including three this year. His PGA Tour record is not great but his T6 at the Masters can’t be discounted. After missing the cut in his inaugural Open Championship in 2011, he finished T9 last year.

Recommended tournament win five pack at The Open Championship (all for one unit)

Jason Day (+2,500)
Lee Westwood (+2,800)
Dustin Johnson (+4,000)
Nicolas Colsaerts (+5,000)
Thorbjorn Olesen (+10,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 27 events: -40.4 Units

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British Open prop betting: Books expect a hole-in-one

The 142nd Open Championship tees off at Muirfield Thursday. While Tiger Woods is the outright fave to win his fourth Claret Jug, sportsbooks are starting to release odds on various prop bets to spice up your betting for the third major of the PGA calendar.

Here is a small sampling of some of the props on the menu.

Below are prop bets courtesy of William Hill.

Margin of victory

Playoff +240
1 shot +250
2 shots +350
2 shots +450
4 shots or more +333

The margin of victory in the 2012 Open was one stroke. The last time the Open was held at Muirfield (2002), it had to be decided by a four-man playoff as Ernie Els, Thomas Levet, Stuart Appleby and Steve Elkington all finished at -6.

Playoff to decide the winner?

Yes -333
No +240

In the last 10 Open Championships, there have been a total of three playoffs to decide the winner (2009, 2007, 2004). At Muirfield in 2002, the Championship was decided by a four-man playoff.

Wire-to-wire winner

No -1600
Yes +700

There have been four wire-to-wire winners in the history of the British Open. The last man to win the Open after leading all four rounds was Gary Player in 1974.

Winning nationality

United States +150
Great Britain and Ireland +250
Mainland Europe +450
South Africa +800
Australia/New Zealand +1000
Japan/Korea/Thailand +2000
Rest of the World +3300

* An American has won five of the last 10 Opens with the last U.S. victory occurring in 2009 (Cink).
* The last major (US Open) was won by a Brit (Justin Rose).
* The last time someone from mainland Europe won the British Open was in 1988 (Seve Ballesteros, Spain).
* A South African won last year (Els) and two of the last three years.
* An Australian has not won the Open since Greg Norman in 1993.

Top Spanish player

Sergio Garcia -188
Miguel Angel Jimenez +650
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano +700
Alvaro Quiros +800
Rafael Cabrera-Bello +1000
Eduardo Da La Riva +2000

Sergio has been the top Spanish player at five of the last 10 Open Championships. He also finished as the top Spaniard the last time the Open was held at Muirfield in 20002. Miguel Angel Jimenez was the top Spanish player at the Open in 2012.

Below are prop bets courtesy of BetVictor:

Will there be a hole-in-one:

Yes -137
No +100

Anirban Lahiri aced the ninth hole of the third round at Royal Lytham & St. Annes Golf Club at the 2012 Open and Tom Watson famously scored an ace at the 2011 Open. There have been 21 aces in the past 30 years at the British Open. There were none at the 2002 Open at Muirfield.

Top Scandinavian:

Henrik Stenson +333
Thomas Bjorn +450
Peter Hanson +700
Freddie Jacobson +750
Alexander Noren +900

Noren was the top Scandinavian last year and Bjorn was top in 2011. Stenson was top in 2010 and 2008.

Below are prop bets courtesy of SportsInteraction:

Tournament Matchup - Justin Rose vs Adam Scott

Rose -116
Draw +1600
Scott -106

Rose and Scott are the current US Open and Masters champs respectively and Scott was the runner up in 2012.

Tournament Matchup - Lee Westwood vs Rory McIlroy

Westwood -111
Draw +1600
McIlroy -111

Westwood was T45 last year and missed the cut at Muirfield in 2002. His best finish was 2 in 2010. Rory was T60 last year and his best finish at The Open is T3 in 2010.

Tournament Matchup - Mickelson vs Els

Mickelson -120
Draw +1600
Els -103

Mickelson is coming off a big win at the Scottish Open this past weekend. Lefty missed the cut last year and finished T66 at Muirfield in 2002. His best finish was T2 in 2011. Els is the defending champion and also won the Open when it was held at Muirfield in 2002.

Tournament Matchup - Nicolas Colsaerts vs Padraig Harrington

Colsaerts -111
Draw +1600
Harrington -111

Colsaerts was T7 in 2012 and has three top 10 finishes so far this year. Paddy Harrington has won two Open Championships (2007, 2008) and was T39 last year. Harrington finished T5 at Muirfield in 2002.

Top English

Justin Rose +215
Lee Westwood +320
Luke Donald +320
Ian Poulter +600

Rose is certainly the hot golfer having won the U.S. Open. Luke Donald was the top English player last year and Lee Westwood was tops in 2010 and 2009.

Top South African

Ernie Els +200
Charl Schwartzel +350
Louis Oosthuizen +450
Branden Grace +650
Richard Sterne +900

Els has won the event twice (2012, 2002) and having won at Muirfield in 2002 certainly plays in his favor. Schwartzel's best ever finish at the Open was T14 in 2010. Oosthuizen won the Open in 2010 but has missed the cut twice since 2004.

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MLB Top 5: Baseball's worst bets after the All-Star break
By JASON LOGAN

Teams like the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins constantly carry a red flag for MLB bettors, especially after the All-Star break when a season’s worth of losing weighs on players and managers the most.

Surprisingly though, basement clubs like the Astros and Marlins aren’t the worst bets in baseball during the second half of the schedule. That honor goes to these five teams:

Record from 2008-2012.

Worst post-break bets

Pittsburgh Pirates (130-234, -78.30 units)

Screw the “Ides of March”. Pittsburgh backers better beware the Ides of July. The Pirates have become notorious for their post-break nose dives in recent years, including a 31-46 record and -21.45 units in 2012. Will it happen again in 2013? The Pirates enter the break as the top money winner, earning +23.50 units so far this summer.

New York Mets (156-207, -55.56 units)

Mets fans can celebrate hosting the All-Star Game this week but after that, they have very little to cheer for. New York bettors have been in the deep red following the break in each of the past five seasons. The Mets, who are already more than seven units in the hole this season, burned through -22.30 units with a 28-48 record in the second half of 2012.

Boston Red Sox (178-183, -47.87 units)

When you’re a high-profile ball club like the Red Sox, those losses cost extra. Boston did the bulk of that damage in 2012, finishing the post-break schedule at 26-50 and eating up -27.41 units – the most in the majors. The year before that, the BoSox went 35-37 and lost -17.46 units. Boston enters the second half of the season up +12.17 units – third most in baseball.

Seattle Mariners (152-209, -30.55 units)

Life in the American League West is tough. With rivals like the Rangers, Angels and Athletics usually picking up speed before the playoffs, the Mariners are left in their wake. Seattle was actually among the breadwinners after the break in 2012, pocketing +11.68 units, but thrashed their backers for -17.26 units in 2011 and -16.79 units in 2010.

Colorado Rockies (175-187, -25.01 units)

That magical second-half march in 2007 is a distant memory for Rockies bettors, whose wallets are about as thin as the air at Coors Field. Colorado went 31-46 and lost -3.76 units last summer, which are small potatoes compared to the -27.21 units the Rockies lost the two previous seasons. Colorado is in the middle of the NL West, down -4.95 units, but anything can happen in that ugly division.

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The three biggest movers in MLB futures odds

Here are three MLB teams that have significantly improved their futures consistently throughout the season:

Boston Red Sox – Opened: 30/1, Now: 8/1

Oddsmakers weren’t expecting much from the Red Sox this season after they cleaned house in 2012, but their starting pitching has come around and they're getting surprise contributions from their young players. Jose Iglesias (batting .367) and Daniel Nava (52 RBIs) are stepping up to the plate and getting the job done in Beantown.

Oakland Athletics – Opened: 25/1, Now: 9/1

The A’s are proving that last year’s Cinderella run to the postseason was no fluke. Bartolo Colon (12 wins) continues to be a force at age 40 and Josh Donaldson (61 RBIs) has been a surprise contributor on offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Opened: 60/1, Now: 14/1

The Pirates have been the best bet in baseball to this point (+23.50 units). The Pittsburgh pitching staff boasts a league-best 3.08 team ERA, While Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen pace the offense.

Here are the latest futures courtesy of the LVH SuperBook:

2013 WORLD SERIES

TIGERS 6
BRAVES 7
CARDINALS 7
RED SOX 8
A'S 9
DODGERS 10
RANGERS 12
RAYS 13
REDS 14
DIAMONDBACKS 14
PIRATES 14
NATIONALS 16
ORIOLES 20
YANKEES 25
ANGELS 30
GIANTS 30
INDIANS 30
PHILLIES 50
ROCKIES 60
BLUE JAYS 80
ROYALS 100
PADRES 200
METS 300
CUBS 300
MARINERS 500
TWINS 1000
WHITE SOX 2000
BREWERS 2000
MARLINS 5000
ASTROS 9999

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2013 ESPY Awards: Books post prop odds

The 2013 ESPY Awards hand out the hardware to the best in sports Wednesday night. SportsInteraction.com has odds on some of the biggest categories:

Best Team

US Women's Gymnastics +303
San Francisco Giants +708
Alabama Football +198
Baltimore Ravens +404
Chicago Blackhawks +404
Miami Heat +238
Oklahoma Softball+708

Best Male Athlete

Miguel Cabrera +307
Lebron James -208
Adrian Peterson +305
Michael Phelps +1000

Best Female Athlete

Gabby Douglas +202
Missy Franklin +900
Brittney Griner +200
Serena Williams +101

Best Moment

Jack Hoffman TD Run -500
Alex Morgan Game Winning Goal vs. Canada +1000
Andy Murray wins Olympic Gold +1900
Chuck Pagano Returns to Colts +253

Best Game

Bruins vs Leafs - First Round - Game 7 +698
Heat vs. Spurs - NBA Finals - Game 6 -400
Ravens vs. Broncos - AFC Divisional Playoff +203

Best NHL

Sidney Crosby -1000
The Field +508

Best Fighter

Canelo Alverez +2000
Danny Garcia +2000
Jon Jones -110
Floyd Mayweather Jr. -110
Anderson Silva +350

Best International Athlete

Usain Bolt -154
Novak Djokovic +300
Juan Manuel Marquez +1300
Lionel Messi +300
Cristiano Ronaldo +800

Best Male Action Sports Athlete

Pedro Barros +1000
Nyjah Huston -400
Mark McMorris +600
Ryan Villopoto +350

Best Female Action Sports Athlete

Leticia Bufoni +200
Kelly Clark +200
Stephanie Gilmore +150
Laia Sanz +150

Best Breakthrough Athlete

Colin Kaepernick +200
Johnny Manziel +200
Yasiel Puig +303
Mike Trout +200
Russell Wilson +673

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Los Angeles

The Dream look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games in Los Angeles. Atlanta is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 17 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Tulsa at Seattle (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 102.690; Seattle 112.790 Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 10; 141 Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 145 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Under

Game 603-604: Atlanta at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.375; Los Angeles 120.563 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 164 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10 1/2; 160 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+10 1/2); Over

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Soccer Crusher
Flamengo + ASA Arapiraca OVER 3
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 428-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 428-367-56

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Double Dragon

MATTEO MANNASERO 85 TO 1 - We go with the young Italian as our first selection. The 20 year old has already picked up four European Tour titles in his career, with one of those coming this year at the BMW PGA Championship. He currently ranks 3rd on the Race to Dubai standings and is primed to vie for his first major title this week. Matteo has been looked at as being one of the next big stars in the golf world for years now.

He does not hit the ball long at all, only averaging 274 yards off the tee, but that will not be an issue this week. Links golf is all about hitting your spots on the course and of course avoiding trouble. He is an accurate striker of the golf ball but is best known for his ability to roll the ball in from everywhere. He plays golf with extreme confidence and intelligence well beyond his years, and I feel we will witness something special out of Matteo this week.

HENRIK STENSON 45 TO 1 - The tall Swede has been playing great golf lately. Henrik enters the 142nd Open Championship on the heels of a T3 finish at the Scottish Open. Stenson struggled the first round of last weeks tournament but came back with sizzling rounds of 64 and 66. He entered the final round with a great chance at his 8th European Tour victory but unfortunately for him shot a 73. This solid play though was not out of no-where, as Stenson has eleven Top 25 finishes world wide. He also has played terrifically in both majors and The Players Championship (Masters - T18, The Players - T5, US Open - T21).

Stenson is one of the worlds most accurate golfer and he will look to use that to his advantage at Muirfield. On the PGA Tour this season Henrik ranks 8th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, hitting 69.84% of his fairways. He also ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour for Greens in Regulation, hitting just over 70%. He ranks 4th in Total Driving and 18th in Scoring Average. Stenson has played very well in three his past four Open Championships (2008 - T3, 2009 - T13, 2010 - T3) and I fully expect him to once again.

IAN POULTER 50 TO 1 - We continue to take Ian Poulter in the majors as it is impossible to overlook his ability to roll the ball in the hole. Ian is regarded as one of the world’s best putters, and will once again look to transfer his match play style energy to a stroke play event. I actually feel Poults is best suited to win The Masters, but The Open Championship is a very close second. This is also the major that Ian would most like to win, and he would be a very popular champion. Hopefully the major victory by Poult’s close friend Justin Rose will inspire him.

Poulter placed runner up in the 2008 edition of The Open Championship, with only Padraig Harrington beating him. Last season was Ian’s second best Open Championship result, when he finished T9 at Royal Lytham & St Annes. Poulter has a tendency to raise his game when it comes to the Major Championship, as he has placed in the Top 25 in four of his past six. I attribute this to his accurate play off the tee and terrific short game. He also has one of the most competitive spirits in the golf world, and I predict this will be on display at Muirfield. He has also decided to change putters to something that fits his eye better, a move that will keep the ball rolling in the hole all week for this Englishman.

MARTIN LAIRD 100 TO 1 - Our hometown selection is Martin Laird. Laird was born in Glasgow, Scotland, but has since moved to Arizona to further his career on the PGA Tour. Laird now returns to his homeland to attempt to claim The 142nd Open Championship. Martin has had zero success at The Open Championship in his career, but I feel playing on a very familiar course will help that. I also like what I saw when Martin fired a final round 63 at the Valero Texas Open to claim the title in April. Winning was one thing but it was great to see Martin play great at The Players (T5) and The US Open (T21) after that. These tournaments brought immense pressure and Martin did not let that get to him.

Martin also enters on the heels of a great finish at The Scottish Open. Last week he finished T5 firing two round of 68 and two rounds of 69. He will enter this major with great confidence and I expect his ability to hit a high fade will benefit him greatly. The course will be extremely firm this week and with winds expected to be subdued, that fade will play perfectly at Muirfield. We have seen the players with long putters win plenty of big tournaments over the last few years, hopefully Matin Laird is the next man to do it.

JORDAN SPIETH 175 TO 1 - How can we not go with this talented young guy. I said Spieth was going to win soon and he did it last week in fantastic fashion, becoming the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931. Spieth really stepped up down the stretch and showed the world what many golf experts already knew; this guy is going to be a superstar. Some people may think that this win was an anomaly, but I can assure you it was far from that. In 16 events on Tour this season he now has posted six Top 10’s. He also enters playing great before his win, having finished 6th at the AT&T National (included a 3rd round 74). He then followed that up with a T23 at the Greenbrier, a finish that should have been much better but he shot 73 in his final round after three straight rounds of 67.

Spieth sits 9th on Tour for Total Driving, something that will benefit him greatly at Muirfield. You must avoid the difficult long grass and I feel Spieth’s distance combined with accuracy will do just that. He also has a great short game as Jordan converts over 60% of his up and downs. I am sure that his ability to roll in putts from 15 to 25 feet will come in handy this week, as Spieth ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour from this distance. This could be the tournament that vaults Jordan into the worldwide spotlight, and I expect him to embrace every second of it.

RICKIE FOWLER 48 TO 1 - Rickie has been quietly playing some of the most consistently good golf on the PGA Tour over the past month. Since the Memorial tournament Fowler has had the following results ( US Open - T10, Travelers Championship - T13, AT&T National - T21). Rickie has been using a very hot putter over the past three tournaments to achieve his scoring. He ranks 18th on Tour in Total Putting and 13th for putts between 5 and 15 feet. It is also great to know that Rickie is one of the best bunker players on Tour as he ranks 3rd for sand save percentage.

Fowler missed the cut in his first two appearances at The Open but has since posted finishes of 2010 - T14, 2011 - T5, and 2012 - T31. Rickie would have had a great chance to be the only guy to compete with Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 had it not been for an opening round 79. Rickie has said that the links style golf suits his game and that he really enjoys the challenge. I like the Oklahoma State alumni to take the next step this week and win a major championship.

Head To Head 72 Hole Match-Up Picks

I said we would have a few head to heads this week and I really like two that are being offered. As a reminder, these are 1unit plays (except the one listed below as 2) and are 72 hole match ups.

2unit play** Jordan Spieth (-135) over Russell Henley - Two young players who have both picked up victories in 2013, but we have to go with Spieth here. Though Henley won at the Sony Open earlier this year, he has really struggled in the two majors and The Players. Henley has missed the cut in all three tournaments and has shot over 75 in four of his six rounds. Spieth will ride his current momentum and challenge for his first major championship this weekend.

Martin Laird (-140) over Thorbjorn Olesen - I actually had Thorbjorn as a potential contender after his T9 at last years Open Championship but he has really struggled recently. He achieved his best finish last week in his past five starts with a solo 67th. He has just two rounds in the 60’s over those five tournaments and I feel this could be a difficult week to turn things around. Take the Scott in this match up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Golf Picks British Open

MATTEO MANNASERO: 85 TO 1
HENRIK STENSON: 48 TO 1
IAN POULTER: 55 TO 1
MARTIN LAIRD: 115 TO 1
JORDAN SPIETH: 175 TO 1
RICKIE FOWLER: 48 TO 1


Head to head:

Spieth over Russell Henley: -135
Laird over Thorbjorn Olesen

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the National League in the All-Star Game Tuesday and likes Brooks Lass in the second race at Delaware ($25 win and place) Wednesday. The deficit is 1203 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo horsing around

The American way proved to be the right way in the big Citi last night for Hondo, who lowered his deficit to 545 sanfords and improved his record to 13-3-1 in the last 17 Midsummer Flaccid Classics.

Today, since there are no human contests in which to invest, Mr. Aitch will hop on some horses. Heeding the sagacious counsel of colleague Vic Cangialosi, His Aitchness will plunge at Del Mar on Scorcher in the second, Wink and Wish in the third, and One Firm Cat in the sixth. Five units to win on each.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA TULSA at SEATTLE

Play On - Home favorites (SEATTLE) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% 45.2 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% -1.4 units )

WNBA TULSA at SEATTLE

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (TULSA) off a home loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
98-28 since 1997. ( 77.8% 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA TULSA at SEATTLE

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after 1 or more consecutive unders
415-267 since 1997. ( 60.9% 121.3 units )
10-8 this year. ( 55.6% 1.2 units )