7-20-13

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Alouettes at Stampeders: What bettors need to know

Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 49)

Veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn looked comfortable filling in for injured Calgary Stampeders starter Drew Tate in a 22-14 victory at Montreal last week. Glenn will try to repeat that performance when the Stampeders host the Alouettes on Saturday. Glenn, who started many games last year - including the Grey Cup final - in place of the oft-injured Tate, completed 22-of-28 passes for 268 yards and got help from running back Jon Cornish, who is second in the league with 304 rushing yards.

Montreal veteran quarterback Anthony Calvillo was limited to 205 passing yards as the Alouettes’ struggles on offence continued under new coach Dan Hawkins. Calvillo is completing less than 60 percent of his passes (58.6) for the first time since 2002 and is on pace for his lowest yardage total since 2007. Montreal’s bright spot is its defence, which recorded six sacks against Calgary last week and is led by linebacker Chip Cox, who is tied for the league lead in tackles with 24.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Veteran offensive lineman Scott Flory is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn bicep, weakening the already-questionable pass protection in front of Calvillo. Flory, a nine-time CFL all-star, is joined on the sidelines by guard Andrew Woodruff, who suffered a concussion last week. Montreal safety Kyries Hebert - nicknamed “Angry Bird” in reference to the team’s logo, the popular video game and his hard, high-flying hits - is tied with Stampeders defensive lineman Charleston Hughes for second in the league with four sacks.

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): Brad Sinopoli made the transition from quarterback to receiver look easy last week, catching five passes for 81 yards in his debut, including a highlight-reel, one-handed grab in the third quarter. Sinopoli was added to the roster after Tate got hurt and was called on to start when wide receiver Maurice Price sat out with soreness in his knee. Defensive back Keon Raymond led Calgary with six tackles in his season debut after missing two games with an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Calgary.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Alouettes are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Calgary.
* Alouettes are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stampeders K Rene Paredes was named Special Teams Player of the Week after converting 5-of-5 field goal attempts in Week 3 to stretch his streak to 25 consecutive field goals. The CFL record is 30.

2. Montreal released RB Chris Jennings, who had eight carries for 29 yards in Week 1 but did not play following the return of RB Brandon Whitaker from an ACL injury.

3. The Alouettes, who have lost two straight since opening the season with a victory, have not recorded three straight regular-season losses since the end of the 2011 campaign.

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Eskimos at Lions: What bettors need to know

Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-9, 47.5)

The Edmonton Eskimos will not have to worry about rain this week. After playing the past two weeks in downpours, the Eskimos visit the BC Lions on Saturday at BC Place, which has a retractable roof. The Lions held the Eskimos to three points in wet conditions at Edmonton last week - something quarterback Mike Reilly and the rest of the Eskimos offense would like to remedy in the rematch against one of the league’s deeper defenses.

BC’s defense held strong in its first week without linebacker Adam Bighill, who is expected to miss at least one more week with an ankle injury. The Lions were especially strong defending the run in the last two weeks, surrendering 115 yards on the ground following a rough Week 1 in which they gave up 200. BC quarterback Travis Lulay appeared to enjoy the rain, rushing for 82 yards last week and tossing two touchdowns in the third quarter to continue his strong start to the season.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-2, 1-2 ATS): Reilly completed 44-of-80 passes for 492 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions in his first three games as Edmonton’s starter. While Reilly could use more help from running back Hugh Charles (177 rushing yards), his game needs to improve if he hopes to retain his first CFL starting job. Edmonton has 39-year-old quarterback Kerry Joseph (27,244 career passing yards) ready to fill in and provide veteran stability, but for a team looking to build for the future, Joseph represents a short-term solution.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): Cornerback Cord Parks is the only defender in the league with two interceptions, including one he returned 45 yards for a touchdown in Week 1. Running back Andrew Harris (292 combined yards) and wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux (206 receiving yards) are Lulay’s favorrite options on offense, while slotback Nick Moore (187 receiving yards) took the place of Geroy Simon in BC’s backfield. Slotback Shawn Gore is expected to play this week after missing a game with a concussion, adding another weapon to Lulay’s arsenal.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in BC.
* Eskimos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in BC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Edmonton LB JC Sherritt is tied for the league lead in tackles with 24. Eskimos LB Damaso Munoz is tied for fourth with 18.

2. The Lions, who won their home opener against the Toronto Argonauts in Week 2, were 8-1 at home last year.

3. Eskimos star SB Fred Stamps, who was a last-minute scratch in Week 3 with a leg injury, is questionable for Saturday.

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Jimenez goes from 150-1 to 15-1, Tiger still favorite to win British Open

Miguel Angel Jimenez is the leader after Round 2 of the British Open Championship Friday, firing an even-par 71 to move to 3-under 139 after 36 holes.

Jimenez entered the tournament at 150-1 odds to win and is now sitting at 15-1 entering the third round Saturday.

Tiger Woods remains the favorite to win, entering the Open Championship at +700 and moving to +200 after shooting a second-round 71 to sit second at 2-under par.

Here are the update outright odds and third-round matchups courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

BRITISH OPEN ODDS TO WIN (updated after second round)

TIGER WOODS 2/1
LEE WESTWOOD 6/1
HENRIK STENSON 9/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 12/1
MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ 15/1
ANGEL CABRERA 15/1
PHIL MICKELSON 15/1
ZACH JOHNSON 20/1
MARTIN LAIRD 20/1
ADAM SCOTT 20/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 20/1
IAN POULTER 30/1
JASON DAY 30/1
RYAN MOORE 40/1
WEBB SIMPSON 40/1
BUBBA WATSON 40/1
RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO 50/1
FRANCESCO MOLINARI 60/1
JORDAN SPIETH 60/1
HUNTER MAHAN 80/1
DARREN CLARKE 80/1
BRANDEN GRACE 100/1
GRAEME McDOWELL 100/1
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 125/1
BERND WIESBERGER 150/1
JAMIE DONALDSON 150/1
JUSTIN LEONARD 150/1
MARTIN KAYMER 150/1
FIELD (all others) 25/1

THIRD ROUND MATCHUPS:

SATURDAY, JULY 20, 2013

LEE WESTWOOD +175
TIGER WOODS -200

DUSTIN JOHNSON EVEN
HENRIK STENSON -120

ANGEL CABRERA -115
MARTIN LAIRD -105

RYAN MOORE -110
JORDAN SPIETH -110

WEBB SIMPSON -110
BUBBA WATSON -110

CHARL SCHWARTZEL +105
ADAM SCOTT -125

JASON DAY +105
PHIL MICKELSON -125

MATT KUCHAR -110
BRANDT SNEDEKER -110

ERNIE ELS +105
SERGIO GARCIA -125

KEEGAN BRADLEY -110
JASON DUFNER -110

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INDIAN COWBOY

CFL
3* #423. Take Montreal +7 over Calgary (Saturday @ 7:05 pm EDT) ESPN2

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Jeffrey James (7-3 Last 10)

#919 Detroit Tigers with Verlander moneyline -150 (7:10 edt)<p>

Verlander completly owns the Royals with a career record of 15-2 against them. His last
start against them was 7 scoreless innings in a no decision. Verlander has
righted his ship after a tough little stretch of 4 games without a win. Guthrie
is having a decent season but his ERA has increased .65 in his last 6 games with
only 1 win and 4 losses. The Tigers are in a tight battle for the division lead
so they will be extra motivated as well. All sighs point to the boys from the
Motor City here.

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LA Syndicate

CFL Saturday
7/20 - Regular Play Montreal/Calagary Under 49.5

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Today's CFL Picks

SATURDAY, JULY 20 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST (7/16)

Game 423-424: Montreal at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 109.531; Calgary 122.495 Dunkel Line: Calgary by 13; 48 Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 52 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-7); Under

Game 425-426: Edmonton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 106.521; BC 120.171 Dunkel Line: BC by 13 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: BC by 8 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: BC (-8 1/2); Under

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CFL

Week 4

Montreal (1-2) @ Calgary (2-1)-- Stampeders (+2) won 22-14 in Montreal last week, their fourth win in last five series games; Calgary outgained Alouettes by 118 yards despite six Montreal sacks. Five of last seven series games went over total. Road team won all three Montreal games; Als scored 11-14 points in home losses last two weeks, with both games staying under- they scored 38 in only win- they've been outscored in second half in every game so far. Calgary has been outscored 55-22 in second half of games. Six of last eight series games went over the total.

Edmonton (1-2) @ BCLions (2-1)--Hard to tell much about Eskimos, since their last two games were played in monsoons. Lions won seven of last eight games against Edmonton; under is 8-4 in last twelve series games; BC (-3.5) won 17-3 in Edmonton last week, with Edmonton getting shut out in second half. Lions allowed total of 19 points last two games, after giving up 44 at Calgary in their opener- they ran ball for 160-197 yards last couple of games. Favorites covered four of last six series games, only three of last nine played here. Eskimos had three takeaways in their win; they didn't have any in either loss.

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Betting Line Moves British Open 3rd Round Matchups

7302. K Bradley -117 over J Dufner
7303. B van Pelt -147 over F Couples
7306. E Els -117 over S Garcia
7310. P harrington over G Coetze
7312. K duke +108 over S Cink
7313. M Kuchar -133 over B Snedeker
7325. H english -110 over J Donaldson
7331. P Mickelson -140 over J Day
7342. R Moore -110 vs A Cabrera
7343. M Laird -125 over Z Johnson
7346. R C Bello -110 over M jimenez
7347. T Woods -180 over D Johnson
7350. L Westwood -130 vs h Stenson

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Favorites and live long shots to win MLB Cy Young Awards
By JASON LOGAN

The first half of the MLB schedule has given us some front runners for the 2013 Cy Young Awards, honoring the top pitchers in the American and National Leagues. There’s a lot of baseball to play this summer, and spotting an ace before they get hot can pay off big in the Cy Young futures.

We take a look at the favorites and some live long shots to earn each league’s top pitching honor.

American League Cy Young

Favorite: Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (-300)

Scherzer picked up 13 wins before suffering his first blemish of the season right before the break. The Tigers righty has a 3.19 ERA and owns the sixth-best WHIP in baseball. Last season, he posted a 2.69 ERA and an 8-2 record after the break and has been at his best in the second half of the sked, with a 3.03 ERA and a 19-12 record over the past three seasons.

Long shot: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (+2,000)

Darvish was a scratch from the All-Star Game due to injury but the Rangers’ second-year hurler got some much needed down time and will be ready to go in the second half of the slate. He boasts an 8-4 record and 3.02 ERA and leads the majors in Ks with 157 at the break. The Japanese righty struggled in the second half of 2012 but if Texas makes a push in the AL West, you can be sure he’ll be the catalyst.

National League Cy Young

Favorite: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (+200)

Wainwright was another top ace that sat out the All-star Game, instead resting up for the home stretch. The Cardinals have soared to the top of the National League on the back of their 6-foot-7 right-hander, who is 12-5 with a 2.45 ERA at the break. Wainwright, who missed all of 2011, was stellar in the post-break schedule last summer, with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Long shot: Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (+600)

The Nationals have struggled to repeat last year’s success but Zimmermann has kept their heads above water with a 12-4 record and 2.58 ERA at the break. The righty was solid in the second half of 2012, going 7-2 with a 3.38 ERA and if Washington finds its form, there is great value in Zimmermann to bring home the hardware.

Odds to win National League Cy Young

Adam Wainwright (Cardinals) +200
Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) +350
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) +400
Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals) +600
Cliff Lee (Phillies) +800
Lance Lynn (Cardinals) +900
Jason Grilli (Pirates) +1,200
Jeff Locke (Pirates) +1,200
Craig Kimbrel (Braves) +1,500
Shelby Miller (Cardinals) +1,500
Matt Harvey (Mets) +1,500
A.J. Burnett (Pirates) +4,000

Odds to win American League Cy Young

Max Scherzer (Tigers) -300
Joe Nathan (Rangers) +600
Bartolo Colon (Athletics) +800
Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) +1,000
Matt Moore (Rays) +1,200
Yu Darvish (Rangers) +2,000
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) +2,500
Mariano Rivera (Yankees) +3,000
Addison Reed (White Sox) +5,000
Justin Verlander (Tigers) +5,000
Anibal Sanchez (Tigers) +10,000

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MLB Top 3: Baseball's worst runline bets after the All-Star break
By JASON LOGAN

The marathon MLB season can start to wear on bettors after the break, which makes it a good time to mix up your wagers with something new. If you’ve been betting nothing but moneylines, try your hand at the runline – baseball’s version of the spread.

We take a look back over the past five seasons to find out which clubs have constantly fallen short of the runline after the All-Star break.

Records between 2008-2012.

Worst post-break runline bets

New York Mets (156-207 SU, 164-199 ATS)

Runline bettors are rotten in the Big Apple with the Mets falling short against the spread. New York, which is down -7.83 units on the runline this season, went a combined 96-125 ATS after the break from 2010-12. The Mets haven't finished above .500 versus the runline after the break since 2008, when they posted a 34-33 ATS mark in the second half of the slate.

Pittsburgh Pirates (130-234 SU, 167-197 ATS)

On top of being the worst post-break moneyline wager over the past five years (-78.30 units), the Pirates have burned plenty of booty on the runline as well. Pittsburgh hasn’t been too bad ATS in recent seasons but was a terrible 59-82 ATS between 2008 and 2009. The Bucs are currently up +21.00 units on the runline at the break.

Detroit Tigers (188-178 SU, 169-199 ATS)

The Tigers have been good but not good enough to cover the runline. Detroit, which is down -1.94 units on the runline heading into the second half of the sked, was the worst late-summer runline wager in 2009, going 28-47 ATS. Since then, the Tigers are 112-110 against the runline after the break. Good but not GREEEAAAT!

Other notables

Boston Red Sox (178-183 SU, 166-195 ATS)
Chicago White Sox (181-183 SU, 168-195 ATS)
Minnesota Twins (177-189 SU, 176-190 ATS)

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MLB Top 3: Baseball's best runline bets after the All-Star break
By JASON LOGAN

The marathon MLB season can start to wear on bettors after the break, which makes it a good time to mix up your wagers with something new. If you’ve been betting nothing but moneylines, try your hand at the runline – baseball’s version of the spread.

We take a look back over the past five seasons to find out which clubs have constantly covered the runline after the All-Star break.

Records between 2008-2012.

Best post-break runline bets

Baltimore Orioles (164-202 SU, 197-169 ATS)

The Orioles constantly get love on the runline from oddsmakers due to playing in the ultra-competitive AL East. Baltimore has made the most of those extra runs, covering the spread 53.8 percent of the time after the break since 2008. This year, the O’s are 54-42 against the runline for +15.86 units.

Oakland Athletics (186-175 SU, 196-165 ATS)

The A’s get a similar treatment in the AL West, where the Angels and Rangers hog the spotlight. Oakland has put together some strong second half pushes, including last summer when the club went 51-25 SU and 52-24 ATS in the latter half of the schedule. So far this season, the A’s are 51-44 against the runline for +10.20 units.

Kansas City Royals (157-206 SU, 195-167 ATS)

The Milwaukee Brewers actually have a better second-half runline record (196-163 ATS) than the Royals but K.C. provides much more value due to its losing record. Kansas City was a beast ATS in 2011, posting a 46-25 ATS mark despite winning only 34 of those 71 post-break contests. In 2012, the club went 45-33 ATS. The Royals have struggled against the runline in 2013, going 42-50 ATS for -14.24 units at the break.

Other notables:

Milwaukee Brewers (200-161 SU, 196-163 ATS)
New York Yankees (217-149 SU, 191-175 ATS)
Toronto Blue Jays (177-181 SU, 190-168 ATS)

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Handicapping MLB's best 'hitters' ballparks
By DOC'S SPORTS

The MLB All-Star break presents the perfect opportunity to study the first half of the baseball season in search of key statistics and trends that can serve as a handicapping guide for the rest of the year.

Some of the most telling stats revolve around how each of the 30 MLB ballparks held up against the hitters it faced. While there are many different factors that help make a “hitters’ park”, the proof of which ones where truly the best still lie in the numbers.

There are a number of different ways to measure ballparks in terms of whether or not they were favorable to hitters, but the top statistic is its OPS. This is a combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage that measures the ability to get on base as well as hitting for power.

Through the first half of the season the Top 5 hitters’ ballparks according to OPS were as follows:

1. Fenway Park, Boston - .772
2. Rogers Centre, Toronto - .766
3. Coors Field, Colorado - .764
4. Comerica Park, Detroit - .762
5. Miller Park, Milwaukee - .757

It’s no big surprise that Fenway tops this list as that has always been known as a hitters’ park. It also helps when the home team is ranked first in the majors in runs scored with 498 through 97 games. The Red Sox are also ranked first overall in OPS at .793.

Comerica Park’s high OPS has also aided by the hitting power of its tenant. The Tigers are ranked second in the Majors with an OPS of .785. They are the second-highest scoring team in MLB with an average of 5.08 runs per game.

The best pure hitters’ park on this list would probably be Miller Park in Milwaukee, considering that the hometown Brewers are ranked 14th in the majors in OPS at .714 and ranked 23rd in scoring with an average of 3.9 runs a game.

If you just want to rank a hitters’ park on slugging percentage alone then the Rogers Centre would move to the top of the list with a SLG of .445. The Blue Jays are ranked sixth overall in slugging percentage at .416, and their team OPS is .732. Fenway ranks second in slugging percentage at .438, and Coors Field is tied with Camden Yards in Baltimore for third with a SLG of .434.

Some people like to equate a hitters’ park with the number of home runs it has given up. Camden Yards would be at the top of this list after yielding 138 homers so far this year. This number has been greatly aided by the fact that the Orioles have accounted for 132 of these blasts through 96 games.

Another good measure of what constitutes a good hitters’ park is a team’s over/under. While this may have little to do with actual baseball statistics and is more a measure of how the oddsmakers set the line, it still provides a valuable handicapping tool for predicting future results.

The final score has gone over in 51 of Detroit’s first 94 games - 54 3 percent. This stands to reason considering that the Tigers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. A few other teams that have been profitable on the total in terms of games going over the total are not necessarily known for their hitting ability.

The total has gone over in 53.1 percent of Philadelphia and San Diego’s 96 games so far. While the Phillies could be considered a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to OPS and slugging percentage, the Padres remain one of the worst overall hitting teams in the majors.

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DAVE ESSLER

Saturday MLB Thoughts

Phillies at Mets: My inclination was to take the Mets, but Wheeler's great outing was against the Giants, the team that traded him, and his other good outing was against Atlanta who hadn't seen him and is streaky anyways. Have to lean Phillies here at first look. Although, the Mets obviously know him as well as anyone, but he was hit pretty hard by them lat month, so perhaps a measure of revenge. Coin flip and would follow money there.

Pirates-Reds: I said what I meant when I swore off betting on or against the Reds. No chance of laying -140 anyway and think the Pirates actually have a better back end. Well, I know they do. Pirates RL here.

Washington-Dodgers: We've had great success earlier in the season, but he seems to have rounded back into form. The Dodgers are under .500 against LHP and on the road, and Gio has handled them well with limited exposure. Collectively the Nationals have hit Grienke well, although Suzuki and Span have the Lions' share of the at bats. Still, I;d have to take the Nationals here.

Miami-Milwaukee: I just usually have a hard time backing Gallardo, because when he's bad he's really bad. In this case, he shut down the Fish on four hits last month, so perhaps the Fish get their revenge. I think that was also before Stanton came back and Pierre may have even been out, too. Very possible we could play the Fish RL. Have not looked at the weather, but with the roof open here there could be some runs scored.

Cardinals-Padres: I know that the Cardinals are clearly the better team, but with Volquez's capabilities here and RL cost of only +120 on the Padres, that's what I'd do. Lynn is simply not THAT dominant every time out.

Cubs-Rockies: Still trying to grasp the Cubs meltdown last Sunday night, and with Villenueva pitching that almost assuredly will bring the Chicago bullpen into play sooner rather than later. Nicasio at home is nothing to brag about (most Colorado pitchers aren't) and I'd have loved to take the over, but at 9.5 it does give me pause. No chance of laying 150, however, so maybe Cubs RL, because with a total that high it might be affordable.

Arizona-San Francisco: My instinct here tells me that it might be time to fade Cain again, especially since it's been three weeks since he threw an actual game. But, since Miley has regressed and the Giants fare well against him, I'll look at the over in that one, perhaps, but think the Giants are the right side.

Rays at Jays: How can Buerhle only be -110 at home to a flyball pitcher like Hellickson against a free swinging team in Toronto, in a day game, when the roof should be wide open. Looks like el-trapo to me. Especially when Hellickson just one-hit Toronto not long ago. Yes, he (Buerhle) was lit up by the Orioles right before the break, but the old man in much better in the Rogers Centre than not. Toronto or nothing.

Yankees-Boston: We keep waiting for the Lackey implosion at some point. The ONE thing that concerns me here is that south breeze blowing out to right field here, and clearly both lineups will be stacked with lefties, IMO. That would have concerned me if Lackey wasn't holding lefties to a .204 average. I know what Kuroda CAN do, and because of that I actually think this total might be high even for Fenway and the conditions.

Detroit at Kansas City: Totally not happening that I lay -160 on the road and I'd have said that even if Verlander weren't hit hard last time out. Guthrie can be solid and the Royals have a bullpen advantage, so Royals RL or moving on.

Cleveland at Minnesota: I don't care who has the better lineup here, I just don't think Cory Kluber is a -130 pitcher on the road. In fact, he has been terrible on the road. Minnesota or pass. At nine I can perhaps make a reasonable case for the over here, but the weather isn't overly warm and little breeze to help. We'll see what happens on Friday.

Seattle-Houston: I really wanted to take Norris on Friday, but couldn't quite get past the Mariners recent offensive output. I do like Bedard in certain situations, and this could be one of them. Iwakuma has given up 11 HR's in his last five starts, and four of those were in pitcher-friendly Seattle. Since Houston has already seen him this season, and was shut down by him, I have to think Houston and/or over here.

Baltimore-Texas: For a second I thought that was RANDY Wolf Since the Orioles haven't seen ROSS Wolf, and Ross is not a starter, hence on a pitch count, this game is totally predicated on how much bullpen each team uses on Friday. Gonzalez JUST shut down the Rangers in Baltimore right before the break, and that was essentially the first time they'd seen him. Might consider over in this one, but detest 9.5. Again, see Friday.

Oakland-LA Angels: Looks like Peggy Wilson got his groove back. HOWEVER, two of those three good starts were against weak teams, and in the win against Boston he did give up ten hits. That's enough to tell me to take the A's or pass here. But, because of the pitchers and the park, that total of only 8 might be an over play.