7-23-13
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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN
Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Montreal Alouettes opened the 2013 CFL season with high hopes and +400 odds of winning their first Grey Cup since 2010. Things haven’t gone as planned for the Als, who head into Week 5’s encounter with the Edmonton Eskimos at 1-3 SU on the year and set as 5-point favorites. Montreal’s offense is at the bottom of the CFL barrel, averaging just 275.2 yards per game – most noticeably the rushing attack which has stammered for an average of 67 yards.
The Als have some serious tinkering to do on their bye week, which so happens to follow this Thursday’s home game. New head coach Dan Hawkins is feeling the pressure and a break would allow him to re-think his game plan - or career path. His players are also feeling the crunch and could be miles away – mentally - from Percival Molson Memorial Stadium with some vacation around the corner.
Letdown spot
Don’t give the Baltimore Ravens any extra motivation. You never know what could happen. Last year, Ray Lewis’ swan song carried the club to a Super Bowl. Now, everybody and their dog are banking on a Baltimore downgrade in 2013. But the club can prove them wrong with a strong showing versus the Broncos – this year’s Super Bowl fave – in the Week 1 opener.
Win or lose that Thursday Night Football matchup, the Ravens are ripe for a letdown at home hosting the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. Early odds have Baltimore set as a 7.5-point favorite coming off an emotional season opener, on a night when it will celebrate its Super Bowl title. The Ravens were 3.5-point chalk in both meetings with Cleveland last year, covering in each game.
Schedule spot
The mish-mash MLB interleague schedule marches on with random matchups each week. Over bettors are licking their chops with the upcoming AL-versus-NL battle between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies – the top two over teams in the majors. Combined, the Tigers and Phillies are 105-88-3 over/under as of Monday, topping the total in more than 54 percent of their games.
Philadelphia comes to the Motor City for three games, starting Friday. The teams haven’t met in interleague play since 2007, when they played over the number in two of three games at Philadelphia. So far in 2013, Detroit has gone 6-3 over/under versus NL foes while Philadelphia is 7-10 over/under in interleague play. -
Tuesday's National League betting cheat sheet and tips
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's National League games:
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (OFF, OFF) (Game 1)
Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Greg Reynolds will make his first start since 2011 as a member of the Colorado Rockies.
Cold batting stat: Reds slugger Joey Votto has just two homers in 20 career games at San Fran's AT&T Park.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The Reds are 4-12 in their last 16 opening games of a double-header.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-105, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Since winning his first four starts, Pirates starter Gerrit Cole has lost his last three heading into Tuesday.
Cold batting stat: Pirates slugger Pedro Alvarez was 0-for-8 with three strikeouts this season against Washington heading into Monday's game.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The Pirates are 11-4 in their last 15 Tuesday games.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+120, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Braves SP Kris Medlen is 1-0 in two starts versus the Mets this season. He has 16 strikeouts in 13 innings against the Mets - the most K's against any team he's pitched against this season.
Cold batting stat: The Braves roster hits a collective .136 (22 at-bats) against Mets starter Carlos Torres.
Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Braves are 9-1 in Medlen's last 10 Tuesday starts.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-129, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Tyson Ross is slated to start for the Padres. He has not started since April 17 but limited the Dodgers to one run in 4 2/3 innings of work in that last outing.
Cold batting stat: Milwaukee's Ryan Braun was handed a season-ending suspension Monday.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: The Padres are 3-14 in their last 17 games versus a right-handed starter.
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (-182, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his three starts in July.
Cold batting stat: Prior to Monday's game, the Cardinals were one of just four NL teams that Phils slugger Domonic Brown had not homered against this season.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 11 mph.
Key betting note: The Cardinals are 4-0 in SP Shelby Miller's last four home starts versus a team with a losing record.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-139, 9.5)
Hot pitching stat: Marlins starter Jose Fernandez boasts an ERA of 1.80 and 19 strikeouts in 20 innings in July.
Cold batting stat: Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton is just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts versus Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: The Marlins are 4-0 in Fernandez's last four starts versus a team with a losing record.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF, OFF)
Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Travis Wood is tied with the Cards' Adam Wainwright and Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw for the NL lead in quality starts with 17.
Hot batting stat: Prior to Monday's game, the Cubbies had swatted 20 dingers in July.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-100s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 10 mph.
Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 19-2 in SP Patrick Corbin's last 21 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (OFF, OFF) (Game 2)
Cold pitching stat: The Giants have lost seven of Barry Zito's last eight starts. Zito owns a 7.50 ERA in three July starts.
Hot batting stat: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips is 8-for-20 (.400) with three doubles and six walks in his career versus Zito.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: Giants are 5-2 in their last seven second games of a double-header.
NOTE: The second game of the Reds/Giants double header is the result of the July 4 game that was postponed due to rain. The Reds will bat last in Game 2 but, for statistical purposes, the Giants are the home team for both games.
* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com
** Odds, probable pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 9:00 p.m. ET.Comment
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Tuesday's American League betting cheat sheet and tips
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday's American League games:
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-152, 9.5)
Cold pitching stat: Sox starter Jon Lester owns a 6.35 ERA while suffering consecutive losses in his previous two starts.
Hot batting stat: Sox DH David Ortiz is 9-for-22 (.409) lifetime versus Rays starter Roberto Hernandez.
Weather: There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for gametime. Temperatures will be in the high-70s and wind will blow out to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Hernandez's last four road starts.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-165, 9.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rangers starter Alexi Ogando will make his first start since June 5. The Rangers had won his last four starts prior to being placed on the DL.
Cold batting stat: Rangers slugger Adrian Beltre is 3-for-18 (.167) with six strikeouts in his career versus Yanks scheduled-starter Phil Hughes.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 11 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 9-1-1 in Ogando's last 11 starts overall.
Oakland A's at Houston Astros (+154, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: While not factoring in the decisions himself, the A's have lost SP Jarrod Parker's last four starts overall.
Cold batting stat: This will be the first time the 'Stros face Parker and the first time the A's face Houston starter Jarred Cosart.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: The Athletics are 7-3 in Parker's last 10 starts versus the American League West.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+116, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Tigers starter Rick Porcello is fresh off a victory over the Pale Hose on July 10. He held the Sox to three runs on seven hits over six innings.
Cold batting stat: Sox SS Alexei Ramirez is 5-for-33 (.152) in his career versus Porcello.
Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph.
Key betting note: The White Sox are 1-6 in SP Hector Santiago's last seven home starts.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-105, 9)
Cold pitching stat: O's starter Jason Hammel was roughed up his last time out. Hammel surrendered 10 hits and six earned runs en route to a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays on July 13.
Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Adam Jones has six hits - including one homer and five RBIs - in 16 at-bats in his career versus Royals starter Bruce Chen.
Weather: There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.
Key betting note: The Orioles are 0-4 in Hammel's last four starts versus a team with a losing record.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-171, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Tommy Hanson will get the nod for the Angles and it will be his first start since coming off the DL. In his last outing, he gave up seven ER and six hits in two innings of work against the Seattle Mariners on June 20.
Cold batting stat: Twins OF Josh Willingham is 1-for-12 (.083) in his career versus Hanson.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Angels score an average of 4.09 runs per game and give up 3.64 runs per game when wind blows out to right field.
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (+102, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Zach McAllister is slated to start for Cleveland. He limited the Mariners to two runs on six hits in 7 1/3 innings of work as the Indians triumphed 5-4 on May 18.
Cold batting stat: In that same game, Kyle Seager and Michael Morse both finished 0-for-4 against the combination of McAllister and the Tribe pen.
Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the high-70s. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Mariners are 1-4 in SP Erasmo Ramirez's last five home starts.
Interleague
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (-110, 9.5)
Hot pitching stat: Dodgers starter Chris Capuano has not given up an earned run in three of his previous five starts.
Hot batting stat: Collectively, the Blue Jays roster has hit .296 versus Capuano.
Weather: The roof may be closed in Toronto due to a 30 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the low-70s and wind will blow in from left field at 15 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 5-0 in Capuano's last five interleague starts.
* Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com
** Odds, probable pitchers, stats and weather forecast as of 8:30 p.m. ET.Comment
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Torres allowed one run in five IP in his only '13 start.
-- Pettibone is 2-0, 2.79 in his last five starts.
-- Chacin is 6-1, 1.94 in his last seven starts. Fernandez is 1-1, 1.80 in his last four outings.
-- Arizona is 17-2 when Corbin starts (2-0, 1.23 last two). Wood is 1-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.
-- Cingrani is 1-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
-- Capuano is 2-1, 3.00 in his last four starts.
-- BChen blanked Indians for six innings in his first '13 start.
-- Ogando was 2-0, 2.38 in his last four starts before going on DL; June 5 was his last start.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts. Santiago is 0-0, 2.29 in his last three starts (Sox bullpen lost all three).
-- Parker is 4-0, 2.58 in his last nine starts. Cosart blanked Rays for eight innings in winning his first MLB start.
Cold pitchers
-- Lordan is 0-2, 4.57 in his four starts this season. Cole is 0-3, 4.15 in his last three starts.
-- Medlen is 3-3, 6.11 in his last six starts.
-- Hand is 0-1, 3.07 in three starts (total of 14.2 IP). Ross is 0-1, 4.50 in his three starts this season, last of which was April 17.
-- Miller is 1-2, 6.87 in his last four starts.
-- First '13 start for Reynolds (10-2, 2.54 in 18 AAA starts); he is 5-8, 7.47 in 16 career big league starts, all for Colorado ('08, '11). Giants lost Zito's last four starts (0-2, 7.10). Surkamp was 2-2, 5.74 in six starts in '11; he is 2-0, 4.79 in four AAA starts this season.
-- Redmond has a 5.00 RA in two starts, but Toronto won both, scoring total of 15 runs in the two games.
-- Lester is 0-2, 6.35 in his last couple starts. Hernandez is 2-4, 4.89 in his last six starts, but won last two (2-0, 4.50).
-- Hughes is 1-5, 4.17 in his last six starts.
-- Hammel is 0-4, 5.59 in his last eight starts.
-- Hanson is 1-2, 7.66 in his last five starts, last of which was June 20. Gibson is 1-2, 8.27 in his last three starts.
-- McAllister is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts. Ramirez allowed seven runs in 4.2 IP in his first '13 start.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Cole 2-7; Jordan 1-4
-- Medlen 8-19 (5 of last 6); Torres 0-1
-- Ross 2-3; Hand 1-3
-- Pettibone 3-16; Miller 5-18 (0 of last 5)
-- Fernandez 4-18; Chacin 2-18
-- Wood 2-19; Corbin 4-19
-- Reynolds 0-0, Cingrani 1-10; Surkamp 0-0, Zito 8-19
-- Capuano 2-10; Redmond 0-2
-- Hernandez 7-18; Lester 6-20
-- Hughes 5-18 (1 of last 11); Ogando 1-10
-- Hammel 6-19; Chen 0-1
-- Parker 6-19; Cosart 0-1
-- Porcello 3-17 (0 of last 6); Santiago 2-12
-- Gibson 1-4; Hanson 4-9
-- McAllister 4-11; Ramirez 1-1
Totals
-- Nine of last twelve Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Atlanta games.
-- 11 of last 12 Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 12 Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Diamondback games.
-- Four of last five Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Texas games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Baltimore road games.
-- Last ten Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven White Sox games went over the total.
-- Last six Angel games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Seattle games went over the total; nine of last eleven Cleveland games stayed under total.
Hot teams
-- Pirates won nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Mets won seven of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers won five of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won three of their last four games.
-- Rockies are 5-0 in game following their last five losses.
-- Cubs are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
-- Reds won five of their last seven games.
-- Dodgers won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Rays won 18 of their last 20 games.
-- Orioles won eight of their last nine games.
-- Tigers won 11 of their last 17 games.
-- Angels won four of their last six home games. Minnesota won five of its last six games overall.
-- Mariners won their last seven games, scoring 46 runs.
Cold teams
-- Nationals lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Braves lost three of their last five games.
-- Padres lost 16 of their last 20 games.
-- Phillies are 3-5 in their last eight road games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Giants lost 19 of their last 27 games.
-- Blue Jays lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Red Sox are 5-7 in their last twelve games.
-- Bronx lost seven of its last eleven games. Rangers lost seven of last nine.
-- Royals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- White Sox lost 15 of their last 22 games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six road games.
Umpires
-- Pitt-Wsh-- Over is 14-5-1 in last twenty Timmons games.
-- Atl-NY-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Schrieber games.
-- SD-Mil-- Underdogs won six of last ten Reynolds games.
-- Mia-Col-- Favorites won seven of last nine Davis games.
-- Chi-Az-- Underdogs won six of last ten Demuth games.
-- Cin-SF-- Over is 9-5-1 in last fifteen Hallion games.
-- LA-Tor-- Seven of last nine Everitt games went over total.
-- TB-Bos-- Eight of last nine Randazzo games stayed under.
-- NY-Tex-- Eight of last nine Danley games stayed under total.
-- Blt-KC-- Favorites won nine of last twelve Scott games.
-- A's-Hst-- Favorites won seven of last eight Hudson games.
-- Det-Chi-- Underdogs won four of last five Conroy games.
-- Min-LA-- Nine of last twelve TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Cle-Sea-- Ten of last twelve Johnson games stayed under.Comment
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Baseball Crusher
Baltimore Orioles -109 over KC Royals
(System Record: 53-6, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 53-57-1
Soccer Crusher
ASA Arapiraca + Bragantino UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 431-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 431-368-57Comment
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Today's MLB Picks
Tampa Bay at Boston
The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's loss and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 0-5 in Roberto Hernandez' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Boston is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JULY 23
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.753; Washington (Jordan) 14.736
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); UnderGame 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 16.149; NY Mets (Torres) 14.716
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); OverGame 955-956: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.118; Milwaukee (Hand) 13.929
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); OverGame 957-958: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.407; St. Louis (Miller) 16.831
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); UnderGame 959-960: Miami at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 15.925; Colorado (Chacin) 14.819
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+135); OverGame 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.341; Arizona (Corbin) 14.821
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); UnderGame 963-964: Cincinnati at San Francisco (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 16.428; San Francisco (Surkamp) 13.104
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 965-966: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.344; Boston (Lester) 16.892
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); OverGame 967-968: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.267; Texas (Ogando) 15.758
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); UnderGame 969-970: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 16.056; Kansas City (Chen) 14.064
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); OverGame 971-972: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.981; Houston (Cosart) 13.586
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-170); UnderGame 973-974: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.189; White Sox (Santiago) 16.056
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); OverGame 975-976: Minnesota at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 14.114; LA Angels (Hanson) 15.819
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); UnderGame 977-978: Cleveland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 16.295; Seattle (Ramirez) 15.145
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); OverGame 979-980: LA Dodgers at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.884; Toronto (Redmond) 14.173
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); OverGame 981-982: San Francisco at Cincinnati (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.224; Cincinnati (Reynolds) 15.399
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AComment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
New York at Indiana
The Fever look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games when playing against a team with a losing SU record. Indiana is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, JULY 23
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 651-652: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 104.118; Indiana 118.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 135
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); UnderComment

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