7-23-13

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Danny B
Toronto

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Goodfella

2* Rays +1.5 (-160)

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Philly GodFather

Red Sox
Nats

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Joe Gavazzi MLB (12-4 2H, 8-1 L2 DAYS)

July 23, 2013

MLB

Tampa Bay (Hernandez) at Boston (Lester) (-135) 7:10PM

3% Tampa Bay (+125)

A 4-1 pay for play night boosts the record to 12-4 since the All Star break, and 8-1 L2 nights. Only three pay for play games today, but they are all good ones, featuring your Underdog of the Day, your Run Line game of the day, and a winner out of a situation that is 21-5 and 8-0. Roll with us every night. As a free winner on ESPN2 tonight, a strong selection in the WNBA game between NY and Indiana is included at the end of every MLB game today.

This game is for first place in the AL East, the best division in baseball. The Rays recent run is 45-23, and as you well know, we have been riding them virtually every night in their recent 18-2 blitz in which they’ve outscored the opposition 97-44. In those 20 games, the starters have a 2.11 ERA and have authored 17 quality starts. The weak link in the rotation has been tonight’s starter, Hernandez. Yet in each of his last 3 starts, he has worked 6 IP, allowing three runs. In 8 recent starts vs Boston, Hernandez has a decent 3.66 ERA. The Red Sox have done little wrong as the Rays have tracked them down. Despite last night’s 3-0 defeat (a 2 hitter by Moore), the Red Sox remain on runs of 35-18, including 20-7 on this field. This mound is where Lester has been his best this season, as the Red Sox have won all seven of his home starts, in which he has posted a 2.96 ERA. But after a hot start, the rubber band has snapped for Lester, as in his last 11 starts, he is 2-6 with a 6.27 ERA. That includes allowing 8 runs in 11 1/3 IP of his last 2 starts.

Pittsburgh (Cole) at Washington (Jordan) (-115) 7:05PM
3% Pittsburgh (+105)

Major events may soon impact each of these two teams. The Nats just fired hitting coach Ekstein, in wake of their 3.7 RPG and .240 BA. That has been in part responsible for their recent records of 2-9 and 0-4 in which they have averaged 2.6 RPG. For the Pirates, the loss of closer, Grilli, to what is first diagnosed as a strained forearm, may disrupt the chemistry of the league’s best bull pen. And the Bucs have their own hitting problems, going 0-10 with RISP to drop their YTD average to .222 with RISP. Nonetheless, we will again back the Pirates (58-39) against Washington (48-51) as your dog of the day. In 7 starts, Cole has a 3.89 ERA. Yet he has been most consistent and clutch, allowing three or less earned runs in each start. Let’s back him against Jordon who in four starts is 0-2 with a 3.32 ERA and Washington offense which is even less potent than that of the Pirates of late.

Philadelphia (Pettibone) at St Louis (Miller) (-210, -1 ½ runs, -110) 8:15PM
4% St Louis (-210, -1 ½ runs, -110)

Cards enter tonight with a 1 ½ game lead over the Pirates, at 59-37, the only team in MLB playing greater than .600 ball. Unlike Pittsburgh however, clutch hitting has been instrumental in that record. For the season, the Cards have a .338 BA with RISP, best in MLB. Miller has been outstanding this season, with a 2.92 ERA. But his outings have been even better from this mound, where the Cards have won 7/9 and Miller has a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 whip. That compares favorably to the outings on the road for Pettibone, who has a road ERA of 5.64 with 1.58 whip. Run line players take note, 46/59 St Louis wins this season have been by two or more runs, including 23/29 on this field. Consider part of your wager on the run line.

LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-105) at Toronto (Redmond) 7:05PM
4% LA Dodgers (-105)

Following their 11-0 June streak, Toronto enters tonight on negative runs of 7-17 and 0-5. Replacement starter Redmond would not appear to be the answer, as in a pair of starts he has allowed five runs in just 9 IP. Now that the Dodgers have tracked down Arizona and ascended to first place, I may be a bit hesitant about backing them as consistently as we have in their 21-5 run, including 8 straight road wins. But until that streak ends, I will continue to look their way. After some inconsistent outings, Capuano pitched a return to form game, allowing no runs in 6 1/3 IP with 8 Ks in a 6-1 CO victory. And it is clear that he has pitched his best baseball on the road where in five starts he has a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 whip.

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS--Billy Joe Hershey
NY Mets
Chi WhiteSox
Oakland A's

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Sports Handicapper King

royals
dodgers

Freeloader reds game 1.

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Bob Balfe

MLB
BOSTON RED SOX -140
(Lester/Hernandez)

Tampa has been straight crushing teams, but they are only average on the road and Lester for Boston is great at home. Again, just like last night Vegas sets lines to get people to jump on the sides they want. I think this is line is high for a reason and it actually is a good line considering all the facts Boston has been struggling to hit the ball, but we know they can hit the ball unlike other teams that struggle to put up runs. Look for the Red Sox to get back on track tonight. Take Boston.

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STAT Picks

Today's MLB PICKS

MLB (totals)

pirates/nationals (7:05 pm)
under 8.5

dodgers/jays (7:07 pm)
under 9.5

yankees/rangers (8:05 pm)
under 9

athletics/astros (8:10 pm)
under 8

marlins/rockies (8:40 pm)
under 9

WNBA (totals)

liberty/fever
over 138

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had Np on Monday.

For Tuesday "Mr Chalk" is going with the "Chalkest" game on the board the Diamondbacks -$185/Cubs.

"Mr Chalk" is 63-35 +$1207 for the 2013 MLB Season.

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Betting Line Moves 42% last 210 releases

Arizona -165

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Bookieshunter

26-9 run

2* Rays
2* Dodgers

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Playersbet

3 units: LA Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Dodgers are finally showing us what this team is about. This pick is purely based off the fact that we have 2 teams going in the opposite direction. The Dodgers are finally healthy and playing up to there full expectations. LA has won 21 out of 26 games overall, which includes a 13-3 record on the road in their last 16 road games. Toronto has been plagued by the injury bug all year and haven't showed much fight. Tonight the Blue Jays are handing the ball to Tood Redmond who is better known for being a career minor leaguer. Tonight he is asked to stop the Dodgers and we just don't see this happening. This game should be over early. The Dodgers are now 7-0 in there last 7 road games and 6-0 as the underdog. Toronto looks to avoid there sixth straight loss and there 18th in 25 games. We do not see this happening and we expect the Dodgers to come out swinging and scoring often.

InterLegaue Game Of The Week: LA Dodgers -106

Bonus Play: 2 units Yankees/Texas under 9.5

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Kelso 100 Tex 100 TB

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bookiemonsters

117-74 run

25-17 run last 42 plays

pod cardinals under 8.5

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9xSports

(MLB) 7:05PM Washington Nationals-113