7-24-13

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MLB Top 5: Best left-handed money pitchers in baseball
By DOC'S SPORTS

Here’s a look at the year-to-date moneyline returns for the Top 5 left-handers in the majors through Monday's games according to Covers.com's money pitchers rankings.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (11-1, +14.45 units)

He’s not only the top left-handed pitcher this season when it comes to his team’s return on the moneyline, but he is the No.1 pitcher overall with a +14.45 units return through his first 19 starts. Corbin boasts an 11-1 win/loss mark and an overall ERA of 2.35. The Diamondbacks have gone an impressive 17-2 in those 19 starts and have also been profitable on the total as well recently with six of his last eight starts staying under the closing number.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (14-3, +10.41 units)

The Rays boast a team record of 16-4 in Moore’s first 19 starts this year. His personal record is 14-3, and he has now won his last six starts after the Rays posted a 3-0 win over Boston Monday. This followed a rough patch in mid June in which Moore lost three consecutive starts that cost -4.00 units on the moneyline. However, he has appeared to have regained that winning form in his last few outings. The total has stayed under in four of his last five starts.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers (8-3, +7.60 units)

The South Korean lefty is 8-3 in 19 starts with the Dodgers going 13-6 over the same stretch of games. He has just two wins in his last eight starts along with a loss and five no-decisions, but the Dodgers won six of those games. The total has gone over in six of his last seven outings after Los Angeles outscored its opponents 48-30 during this run, including a 14-5 win over Toronto Monday.

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (9-5, +5.97 units)

De La Rosa is coming off a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs this past Friday, but his team lost 3-1 as a -150 home favorite to drop his total return on the year. He has made a total of 20 starts this season, and the Rockies have gone 13-7 in those games. De La Rosa is 9-5 on the year and 3-2 in his last 10 starts. Colorado has gone 6-4 in those 10 games with a +1.08 return on the money line.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (4-5, +5.10 units)

Much of Keuchel’s profits have to do with the high moneylines the Astros routinely attract as the worst team in baseball. He has made 13 starts this season. And while he has a personal record of 4-5, his team is 6-7 in those games. That is quite an accomplishment when you consider that Houston is 33-65 and down almost 10 units on the year.

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Rangers acquire SP Matt Garza, futures odds jump

The Texas Rangers bolstered their starting rotation by acquiring starter Matt Garza from the Chicago Cubs Monday.

Garza provides some depth to Texas’ starting rotation, and some oddsmakers have shuffled the Rangers’ futures. According to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, no adjustments were made to Texas’ World Series, league or divisional odds since acquiring Garza. However, at Bet365.com, Texas went from +1,200 to +1,000 to win the World Series and from +600 to +500 to take the AL Pennant.

"Great pitching pickup if he pitches as he can," Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers. "Gives the starting rotation a real boost, but they are still in a tough race for the division or Wild Card. Garza could prove the difference with the extra wins you would expect him to get."

The Rangers dealt three prospects to the Cubs for the right-hander. Garza is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA on the year and has been red hot in recent outings, going 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last six starts.

The Rangers are expected to debut their new prize pitcher against the New York Yankees Wednesday. Garza is 1-4 all-time with a career 4.48 ERA versus New York.

Texas has just three wins in its past 10 games spanning the All-Star break, heading into Tuesday, and are second in the AL West at 55-44, losing -1.18 units for bettors on the year.

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WNBA games playing 'under' the total 60 percent of the time

The WNBA is the summer’s forgotten sport, but a handful of total bettors are having a season to remember strictly by wagering on the ‘under’ in women’s basketball action.

WNBA games are playing under the total 60.22 percent of the time, heading into Tuesday’s schedule, with July’s contests posting a 14-23 over/under record (62 percent under), including a 0-6 over/under mark this past weekend. Heading into July, the WNBA had produced a 24-35-2 over/under mark.

Only two teams have leaned toward the ‘over’ this season, the Washington Mystics (9-8-0 O/U) and Tulsa Shock (10-8-1 O/U). The biggest breadwinners for ‘under’ bettors have been the Indiana Fever (3-11-1 O/U) and Seattle Storm (5-11 O/U). Both teams rank at the bottom of the WNBA in scoring, averaging 69.3 and 68.9 points respectively.

Teams are averaging 76.38 points per game this season compared to 77.53 points in 2012.

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RBC Canadian Open: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

We follow up an exciting Open Championship with the RBC Canadian Open this week from Oakville, Ontario.

This is always one of the more difficult tournaments on tour to breakdown because of the constant venue changes. The Canadian Open has been around for over a century and in that span, 37 different courses have played host. This year it returns to Glen Abbey Golf Club for the 26th time.

Glen Abbey is a Par-72, 7,253-yard track that is considered one of the easier courses of the rotation. It has not hosted the Canadian Open since 2009 when Nathan Green won in a playoff over Retief Goosen after scores of -18.

The year before, Glen Abbey also hosted and it was Chez Reavie that took home the championship with a minus-17, three shots clear of Billy Mayfair. Those results show that players can go low here so we will see plenty of pin hunting this week.

This is the seventh consecutive year that the RBC Canadian Open has followed the Open Championship and that is certainly a tough draw. As with any event following a major, the field is lacking in star power as only four players from the Top 10 of the FedEx Cup Standings are teeing it up this week.

That makes for a pretty wide open tournament and it heightened by the fact that not many players in the field have stepped foot on this track before.

Brandt Snedeker (+1,200) is the favorite this week following his third straight Top 20 at Muirfield last week. After a blazing start to the season with four Top 5s in his first five starts, he has cooled off with none over his last 10 starts, but he brings experience to the table this week. He finished T5 at Glen Abbey in 2009, posting the best score in the field over the final three days after opening with a 73.

Grinding it out at the Open Championship makes it tough on some to keep focused the following week but Luke Donald (+2,000) doesn’t have to worry about that. He missed the cut by four shots at Muirfield so he has some added rest for this week. He is having a solid season with three Top 10s and has finished 25th or better in eight of 10 starts. His score of 10-under was good for a T24 here back in 2009.

It’s hard to look past Canadian Graeme DeLaet (+2,500). He is coming off a subpar showing at the Open Championship but prior to that, he posted seven straight Top-30 finishes including three Top 10s. His best finish is a solo third at the Travelers and, while he finished T46 here back in 2009, I consider that pretty solid as that was his only PGA Tour start that year. He will be the partisan favorite this week.

Billy Horschel (+3,000) has missed only two cuts this season and both were at majors (if you count the PLAYERS), so he will be around for the weekend here. Overall, he has seven Top 10s and, while none have come in his last three starts, he could be poised to better playing leading up to the playoffs. This is his first start at Glenn Abbey, but it should fit him well as he is second on tour with 302 birdies.

For a long shot, we will go with Jerry Kelly (+6,000). After a slow start, he has just one missed cut in his last nine starts and he is coming off a T4 in his last even at the John Deere Classic. That was his second Top 5 of the season, his other being a solo fifth at the RBC Heritage. He played at Glen Abbey in 2004, 2008 and 2009 and he was solid with a T5, T37 and a T5 respectively.

Recommended tournament win fivepack at The RBC Canadian Open (all for one unit)

Brandt Snedeker (+1,200)
Luke Donald (+2,000)
Graeme DeLaet (+2,500)
Billy Horschel (+3,000)
Jerry Kelly (+6,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 28 events: -45.4 Units

Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge - 5 Units
Farmer Insurance Open +3.5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open +19 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am -5 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship +25.66 units
The Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Tampa Bay Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -1.5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -8 Units
RBC Heritage +27 Units
Zurich Classic of New Orleans -5 Units
The Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 Units
U.S. Open -6 Units
Travelers Championship -5 Units
AT&T National -5 Units
Greenbrier Classic -5 Units
John Deere Classic -5 Units
Open Championship -5 Units

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Cappers Access

Royals +110
Dodgers -110

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Red Sox Tuesday and likes the A’s on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1395 sirignanos.

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Study Says Bettors Shouldn't Overthink it When Picking Winners
by Jon Campbell

A series of studies from the Korea University Business School have revealed findings that may make some bettors want to re-think how they handicap.

The research shows the devil can be in the details when trying to pick winners in MLB and soccer and bettors tend to be more successful when taking a "big picture" approach.

Researchers examined one billion bets placed between 2008-2010 through Korea's largest sports-betting company, Sports ToTo. Researchers split each of the three studies into two groups: Half were asked to pick the outright winner and the other half were asked to pick a specific score.

"The pattern of performance across the three studies was remarkably consistent," says an article from Scientific American. "Participants who made general win/lose predictions were reliably better at projecting the winners of the sporting events than those who made specific score predictions."

The article went on to say:

"Even experts were reliably better in predicting winners when making general bets than when making specific bets. It seems that even in cases where greater knowledge may offer an advantage, the act of focusing on that knowledge can disrupt decision making."

Those making the general bets relied on global assessments like overall impressions of the team, performance in past seasons, etc. The more specific group dug more deeply into the statistics.

In a nutshell the data from this huge study says you should use your gut instincts when placing a wager.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Liriano is 4-1, 2.45 in his last five starts.
-- Hudson is 3-0, 3.80 in his last three starts.
-- Lohse is 3-1, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Lannan is 2-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. Westbrook is 2-1, 2.66 in his last three outings.
-- Leake is 2-0, 3.21 in his last couple starts.
-- de la Rosa is 2-1, 2.55 in his last six starts. Turner is 2-2, 2.64 in his last five.
-- Gaudin is 2-0, 0.77 in his last four starts.

-- Nolasco is 1-1, 3.12 in three starts for the Dodgers.

-- Griffin is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 1.64 in his last five starts. Pelfrey is 1-1, 2.55 in his last three.
-- Saunders is 4-0, 2.08 in his last four starts. Kazmir is 2-0, 2.92 in his last six.
-- Price is 3-1, 1.97 since coming off the DL. Doubront is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Garza was 5-0, 1.92 in his last five starts for the Cubs.
-- WChen is 3-0, 1.46 in his last four starts. Santana is 3-1, 3.45 in his last nine.
-- Sanchez is 2-2, 3.33 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Strasburg is 1-1, 7.80 in his last three starts.
-- Hefner gave up eight runs in two IP Friday, after being 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts before the break.
-- O'Sullivan allowed two runs in five IP in losing his first '13 start.
-- Kennedy is 0-3, 6.50 in his last three starts. Samardzija is 1-2, 7.50 in his last three.

-- Rogers is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.

-- Norris allowed 13 runs in 10.2 IP in losing his last two starts.
-- Pettitte is 2-4, 6.02 in his last seven starts.
-- Danks is 0-2, 4.87 in his last three starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Liriano 2-13; Strasburg 5-19 (1 of last 13)
-- Hudson 4-19; Hefner 8-19
-- O'Sullivan 0-1; Lohse 7-20
-- Lannan 3-9; Westbrook 6-19
-- Turner 1-9; de la Rosa 4-20
-- Samardzija 6-20; Kennedy 8-19
-- Leake 4-19; Gaudin 2-7

-- Nolasco 6-20; Rogers 2-9

-- Griffin 1-19; Norris 6-20
-- Pelfrey 6-17; Weaver 2-12
-- Kazmir 4-17; Saunders 5-19
-- Price 5-13; Doubront 4-17
-- Pettitte 7-17 (4 of last 4); Garza 0-11
-- WChen 2-10; Santana 8-20
-- Sanchez 4-16; Danks 4-11

Totals
-- 10 of last 13 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Six of Mets' last eight games stayed under the total.
-- 12 of last 13 Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Eight of the last eleven Philly games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Diamondback games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games.

-- Ten of last fourteen Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Texas games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Baltimore road games.
-- 10 of last 11 Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last twelve White Sox games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Angel games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 12 Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 10 of their last 14 road games.
-- Mets won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Padres won three of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games.
-- Miami is 5-4 in its last nine games, allowing three runs in last two games.
-- Cubs are 8-6 in their last fourteen games.
-- Reds won six of their last nine games.

-- Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games.

-- Rays won 18 of their last 21 games.
-- Orioles won eight of their last ten games.
-- Tigers won 12 of their last 18 games.
-- Minnesota won six of its last seven games.
-- Mariners won their last eight games, scoring 50 runs.

Cold teams
-- Nationals lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Braves lost four of their last six games.
-- Brewers are 0-2 since Braun got suspended, scoring five runs.
-- Phillies are 3-6 in their last nine road games.
-- Colorado lost six of its last nine home games.
-- Arizona lost four of its last six games.
-- Giants lost 20 of their last 29 games.

-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine games.

-- Red Sox are 6-7 in their last thirteen games.
-- Bronx lost eight of its last twelve games. Rangers lost seven of last ten.
-- Royals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 13 games. Oakland lost four of last six on road.
-- White Sox lost 16 of their last 23 games.
-- Angels lost their last three games, allowing 20 runs.
-- Indians lost six of their last seven road games.

Umpires
-- Pitt-Wsh-- Last three Estabrook games stayed under total.
-- Atl-NY-- Underdogs won six of last seven Fairchild games.
-- SD-Mil-- Four of last fivew Hirschbeck games went over.
-- Phil-StL-- Favorites won seven of last nine Holbrook games.
-- Mia-Col-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Iassogna games.
-- Chi-Az-- Eight of last nine Hernandez games went over total.
-- Cin-SF-- 10 of last 13 Guccione games went over the total.

-- LA-Tor-- Favorites won all three Little games.

-- TB-Bos-- Last four Vanover games stayed under the total.
-- NY-Tex-- Favorites won 11 of last 15 Barksdale games.
-- Blt-KC-- 14 of last 18 Miller games stayed under the total.
-- A's-Hst-- Nine of last thirteen Baker games stayed under total.
-- Det-Chi-- Last seven Darling games stayed under the total.
-- Min-LA-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Muchinski games.
-- Cle-Sea-- Favorites won seven of last eight Culbreth games.

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bookiemonsters
118-74 run

26-17 run last 43 plays

pod astros under 8.5

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Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at San Francisco

The Reds look to bounce back from last night's loss in the nightcap and build on their 7-1 record in Mike Leake's last 8 road starts. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 24 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 16.084; Washington (Strasburg) 14.405 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under

Game 903-904: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.879; NY Mets (Hefner) 14.487 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (O'Sullivan) 13.920; Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.427 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 15.984; St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.655 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+160); Under

Game 959-960: Miami at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 14.136; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.608 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Over

Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.571; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.490 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+120); Under

Game 913-914: Cincinnati at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.056; San Francisco (Gaudin) 13.476 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 915-916: Oakland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 14.302; Houston (Norris) 15.265 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Over

Game 917-918: Minnesota at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.670; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.263 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-250); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-250); Under

Game 919-920: Cleveland at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.740; Seattle (Saunders) 14.800 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Over

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.670; Boston (Doubront) 16.565 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Under

Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.466; Texas (Garza) 15.860 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); Over

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.657; Kansas City (Santana) 14.463 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

Game 927-928: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.507; White Sox (Danks) 14.737 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over

Game 929-930: LA Dodgers at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 16.713; Toronto (Rogers) 14.344 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Chicago at Washington

The Sky look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Chicago is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 24 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Chicago at Washington (11:30 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.866; Washington 109.390 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 157 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 154 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 106.470; Minnesota 122.861 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 16 1/2; 164 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 11; 169 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-11); Under

Game 605-606: Connecticut at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 104.034; Atlanta 111.564 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 146 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 151 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9 1/2); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1068-799 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Dodgers Pick

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Tigers -145

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Baltimore/Kansas City Under 9