7-26-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo plays his Card

Hondo ended up running in place again yesterday when he hit with the Yankees, was rinsed with the Rays and missed with the Dodgers, leaving the deficit holding at 605 vuckoviches.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch has pulled an ace out of the deck — 20 units on Wainwright and the Cards to cut down Los Braves (as Carlos Danger likes to call them).

[DaKid]

Hondo

Hondo plays his Card

Hondo ended up running in place again yesterday when he hit with the Yankees, was rinsed with the Rays and missed with the Dodgers, leaving the deficit holding at 605 vuckoviches.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch has pulled an ace out of the deck — 20 units on Wainwright and the Cards to cut down Los Braves (as Carlos Danger likes to call them).

Lol at Carlos Danger

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KYLE HUNTER

MLB	Jul 26 '13 7:10p	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Take: Total 7½ un-117		in 10h
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Miami Marlins definitely have the worst offense in baseball. They recently went 37 straight innings without scoring a single run. How can we expect them to score more in this one when they are facing a pitcher as good as Jeff Locke? Locke has been as good as any rookie starting pitcher in baseball this year. He has a 2.11 ERA, and I expect him to dominate this Marlins lineup. Pittsburgh's offense isn't very good, but the Pirates have the best pitching staff in baseball. Enderson Alvarez has lots of potential, and he has pitched well lately. The under is 9-0 in Miami's last 9 games. The under is 4-0 in the Marlins' last 4 following a win. The under is 8-0 in the Marlins' last 8 games as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. Take the under.

MLB	Jul 26 '13 7:30p	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Take: St. Louis Cardinals -117		in 11h
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball. St. Louis does in with both hitting and pitching. The Cardinals have the best lineup in the National League. They are second in team ERA. Adam Wainwright is clearly their best pitcher, and he is one of the best pitchers in baseball today. He has a 2.98 ERA in his career against Atlanta. Mike Minor has been solid this year, but he has an ERA above 7 in his career against the Cardinals. The Cardinals have the much more consistent offense and the better pitcher. I like the value on the road team. Take the Cardinals.

MLB	Jul 26 '13 9:40p	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Take: Total 8½ un-105		in 13h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks have two of the weakest offenses in the National League. Arizona has been winning solely because of their pitching. Arizona has been particularly bad against lefties, and Eric Stults is an underrated left-handed starter. Randall Delgado is a talented young pitcher for Arizona, and he has pitched well so far this year. The under is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5 during game 1 of a series. The under is 7-0 in Stults' last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Stults' last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Stults' last 5 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

600* Yankees

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Jul 26, 2013





Milwaukee @ COLORADO
Milwaukee +131 over COLORADO

The Rockies just lost three of four games to the Marlins at Coors Field and scored eight times in those four contests. The Rockies have scored one run or less in eight of their past 17 games and three runs or less in 13 of their past 17. To take that even a step further, over their past 33 games, Colorado has scored three runs or less in 24 of them. That’s some pretty sick looking numbers when you consider that they play half their games at the best hitter’s park in the league. Colorado is likely to be without Carlos Gonzalez here, as he reinjured (sprained) his right middle finger in yesterday’s loss. Tyler Chatwood is 6-3 with a 2.48 ERA and that provides us with another great opportunity to sell high. His 2.48 ERA is the product of his 80% strand rate and 4% hr/f more than anything else and there are plenty more red flags in this imposters’ skill set. Chatwood has 12 walks and 13 K’s over his past 32 innings. In 76 innings this season, he has a mere 48 K’s. This is not the profile of a pitcher with a 2.48 ERA and his xERA of 4.80 assures us that regression is right around the corner.
We’re pretty sure Ryan Braun is at the cottage. This is a good opportunity for the Brewers to hit the road for the first time since Braun’s suspension and put that chaos behind them. They’ve always hit well at this park and they have their hottest pitcher going here. Wily Peralta has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball recently with a 0.87 ERA over his last six starts. Luck has no doubt played a factor (94% strand rate), but solid skills over the last month indicate some real growth here. Peralta has an elite 55% groundball rate and his strikeout rate is trending the right way. Peralta has 28 K’s over his last 34 innings and his 94.9 mph average fastball velocity is one of the game's best. He’ll now face a Rockies team that is simply not hitting anything these days and that remain one of the most beatable squads in the league. Definite overlay.

Our Pick
Milwaukee +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)





Chicago @ SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago +148 over SAN FRANCISCO

0% disasters in 32 starts, top 10 in IP again. Career-low walks, career high Ks. This is the profile of an ace in his prime and we’re talking about what Matt Cain did last season. This season is a completely different story and one has to wonder if Cain is suffering through “dead arm” syndrome. Over his last 16 innings, Cain has walked 12 batters. Cain’s xERA over his last five starts is 5.38 and his 60% strand rate is the lowest in MLB. AT&T Park suppresses runs by 20% compared to other major-league parks, yet Matt Cain has a home ERA of 5.74. This is not the guy you want to back at -160.
Edwin Jackson is not on anyone’s radar. His 5.11 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are two reasons why. That said, his base skills have been very decent. Jackson has 20 K’s and just seven walks issued over his past five starts covering 30 innings. He has an elite 54% groundball rate overall and an even more elite 60% groundball rate over his last five starts. Jackson had a lousy first half but he’s definitely rounding into the form that made him Mr. Reliability over his entire career. There remains good profit potential on Jackson and we’re on it.

Our Pick
Chicago +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)





Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
MIAMI +146 over Pittsburgh

We could see a serious letdown from the Pirates in this series. Pittsburgh is coming off two exciting and intense series in Cincinnati and Washington. All seven of those games were close and they were all played in front of big crowds. The Pirates will now conclude their 10-game road trip after the All-Star break before hosting the Cardinals in a huge series beginning on Monday. There is little atmosphere in Miami and no doubt the Pirates will feel the difference. For Pittsburgh, it’s not going to be easy to be mentally ready for this series. The Pirates will also face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez fell off the map in 2012. His poor stats (4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) were the result of unimpressive skills. What's easy to forget is that Toronto rushed him to the majors so last season was a consolidation year for him. He had only 88 IP at Double-A prior to his MLB promotion. With a 93 mph average fastball velocity and near-elite groundball tilt, Alvarez has the foundation to take a big step forward. He’s pitched four games for the Marlins and has allowed three runs or less in three of them and four runs in the other. Alvarez is coming off a seven inning, five-hit shutout in Milwaukee in which he induced 62% groundballs. He’s getting better with each start and could thrive again here.
Jeff Locke personifies the underdog Pirates this season. The 25-year-old southpaw wasn't really on the radar this spring, yet he continues to rank among NL ERA leaders, earned a spot on the All-Star roster and owns a 9-2 record. However, Locke's skill set still says he's performing way above his ability. His calling card as a prospect and 2nd round draft choice was command and control. But he's walking four batters a game and 4.8 so far in July. Locke's 83% strand rate and 22% hit rate are both on the extreme side of lucky for a pitcher with 115 IP. A 52% ground ball rate is a big reason for his success and he's benefited from a strong defense and bullpen. Locke is the fantasy baseball equivalent of some of the dot-com stocks in the late-90s. Underlying numbers told you they couldn't continue to rise, but it was hard to let go. The Pirates southpaw likewise has outperformed some of the league's blue-chip names. He's has allowed 22 fewer hits than Clayton Kershaw in two fewer starts. And he's stranding a larger percentage of base-runners than Adam Wainwright or Matt Harvey. We know this can't last, but it's been a nice ride and even a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way will be lost in his full year stats. It’s “sell high” time on Jeff Locke.

Our Pick
MIAMI +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)





Kansas City @ CHICAGO
Kansas City -118 over CHICAGO

The Royals are still in this thing. They are just seven games back and have come out of the All-Star break with two series wins over Detroit and Baltimore. K.C. has won three in a row and five of seven and they figure to carry that momentum into this series. James Shields has been a model of unheralded consistency, save one hit%/strand%- induced blip in 2010. New team, same old skills from Shields, with one glaring exception: The groundball gains he made the prior two seasons have fallen off, and he's giving up more liners than usual. A hit% increase from 29% in '12 to 32% confirms, stuff-wise, he hasn't been quite as dominant. This hasn't affected his ERA, however, thanks to a hr/f% correction and a minor strand% jump. Shields' is matching his xERA from last season. His strikeout rate loss and control bumps aren't substantial enough to invoke much concern, as Shields’ command still remains in the elite range. Shields has proven to be the perfect target for the risk-averse bettor, as his skills have remained so consistently elite over the past four seasons that, at times, he can be downright boring to analyze (a good thing, in this case). Don't sweat the skills drop, as a 78%/6% dominant start/disaster start split proves he's still money in the bank.
Lefty Jose Quintana has a respectable 3.61 ERA after 20 starts. However, only eight of his starts have been of the pure quality variety and the key to getting to him is to force him to pitch out of the stretch. With the bases empty, Quintana has posted good skills. With runners on he has been plagued by a 39% hit rate and 15% hr/f. The Royals .261 batting average against southpaws is sixth best in the league, they’re seeing the ball well and they’ve also had plenty of AB’s against Quintana. That suggests that K.C. should have its fair share of base-runners here. The South Side rarely has their fair share of base-runners.

Our Pick
Kansas City -118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.69)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers CFL

Today's Free Picks for Jul 26, 2013






Calgary @ WINNIPEG
WINNIPEG +5 +101 over Calgary

There are just too many questions marks surrounding this game to trust any bet and therefore we’ll sit it out. The identity of Calgary’s quarterback - Drew Tate or Bo Levi Mitchell — is a game-time decision based on the performance of Tate’s wonky throwing arm in the warm-up. Mitchell remains on track to start for the Stampeders, but a final decision will be made before kickoff. If Mitchell does go, and our sense is that he will, it will be his first CFL start and not many before him have had success in their first start. Calgary coach, John Hufnagel is not confirming anything but we trust that’s just a ploy to get the Bombers focus off one or the other. In other words, Hufnagel is trying to get Winnipeg to prepare for both. Given his lack of steady playing time, Mitchell is an enigma, of sorts, for the Winnipeg defense.
Winnipeg has locked in backup Justin Goltz for this game. Regular Winnipeg starter Buck Pierce didn’t seem too pleased with the decision Thursday — not that he didn’t wish Goltz well, but he said he feels healthy enough to play. Bombers head coach Tim Burke dismissed any suggestion the decision not to start him was related to anything other than his health. “If he was healthy, he’d be starting, but he’s not so he isn’t,” the coach said, suggesting that Pierce will insist he’s healthy enough to play “as long as he’s breathing.” Goltz came in last week against the Argos and finished the game for Pierce and acquitted himself pretty well, completing 13 of 15 passes for 170 yards. However, the game was out of reach at that point and so his numbers came in junk time. This is Goltz’s fourth season with the Bombers but first start. He was always No. 3 on the backup depth chart behind Alex Brink and Joey Elliott, both cut by the Bombers in the off-season, so it’s difficult to have any faith in him. This game can really go any way but we would feel very foolish if it’s a blowout and we’re on the wrong side. The home dog is 0-4 this year while the favorites are 13-4 against the number. That discrepancy will eventually even out but in this game, we can’t trust the Bombers to come up big with an unproven QB. Hold a gun to our heads and we’d take the points because a rookie making his first start at QB can’t be trusted either. To take any position in this contest is too risky and therefore we’ll pass.

NO BET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

larry ness

colorado
over in giants game
baltimore
dodgers RL
seattle RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ben burns

toronto
arizona
under dodgers game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

MLB
Kansas City (Shields) (-115) at Chicago White Sox (Quitana) 8:10 ET
4* Kansas City (Shields) (-115)

Quintana has been solid in the month of July with a 2.36 ERA in his last 4 starts. But we have long ago abandoned the White Sox whose bad defense, bad hitting and bad attitude have resulted in a recent record of 16-35. Far prefer the resurgent Royals and veteran starter Shields. Playing against solid winning teams Detroit and Baltimore, KC has a post break record of 5-2 including a 3-0 sweep of Baltimore. Shields is one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB with YTD numbers of 3.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 122/40 KBB. Shields has been even better on the road with 2.74 ERA. Ride the resurgent Royals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

NEW YORK YANKEES -110
(Sabathia/Hellickson)

Hellickson was supposed to pitch last night, but was rained out. I never like when pitchers get off their schedule. The Yankees made a great trade with the Cubs getting Soriano back which will give them a huge bat in a pretty weak line up right now. This is about time where the Yankees make their run. Take the Yankees.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

First Look with Marco D'Angelo

A's

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Bankroll Sports

2* Braves

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VIC MONTE SPORTS

Private Play DODGERS

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Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

Pirates
Under Braves
Indians

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LA Syndicate

Top Plays

Giants
Yankees
Under Angels