7-27-13

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

NY Yankees

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KYLE HUNTER

MLB	Jul 27 '13 1:05p	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Take: Tampa Bay Rays -111		in 6h
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays are playing better than anyone in baseball right now. Normally the Yankees are a tough matchup, but the majority of the Yankees' talent is sitting on the bench right now. Tampa has won 22 or their last 27 games overall. Chris Archer has been a great boost to the Tampa Bay rotation. He has been terrific in his last 4 starts. Ivan Nova is an inconsistent pitcher, and the Rays are hitting the ball very well right now. The Rays are 6-0 in Archer's last 6 starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a right handed starter. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 starts versus a right handed pitcher. Take Tampa Bay.

MLB	Jul 27 '13 1:05p	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Take: Total 9½ ov+106		in 6h
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Josh Johnson was a dominate starter a couple of years ago, but something just isn't right with him this season. He has an ERA of 5.50, and he has had multiple games where he can't make it past the third inning. Houston will start Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel was never very good in the minors, and he has really struggled on the road in his major league career. Toronto hits left-handed pitchers well, and I fully expect them to put up a lot of runs against Keuchel. Houston's bullpen is the worst in baseball so there will be no relief in sight if Keuchel is knocked out of the game early. Toronto scored 8 runs in a single inning last night against Houston's bullpen. Take the over.

MLB	Jul 27 '13 7:10p	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Take: Total 7½ un+100		in 12h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates have the best team ERA in all of baseball. The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. It's a nice combination for a low scoring game. Pittsburgh's offense isn't very good, and the Marlins have actually been pitching well as of late. Tom Koehler had one terrible start at home earlier this year against the Cardinals, but other than that game, he has been very solid. The Pirates lineup certainly doesn't have the same pop that the Cardinals do, and I expect Koehler to pitch well. The under is 10-0 in Miami's last 10 games overall. The under is 9-0 in the Marlins' last 9 as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in the Marlins' last 7 games against a righty. The under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts as a favorite. In all, a 31-0 angle backs this play. Take the under.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Milwaukee at Colorado (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado -120 (moneyline) at 5Dimes

The Milwaukee Brewers have played very good baseball at home over the past few years, but for the most part they have been a train wreck on the road. So far this season, they are 16-31 on the highway. They were beaten badly here last night 8-3. Since pitching three consecutive shutouts, the Brewers' staff has fallen sharply as they have allowed 30 runs in their last five games. The Rockies' pitching has allowed just 27 runs in their last 11 games, and the way they swing the bats certainly poises them to come out on top here. Milwaukee has really struggled in anticipated offensive games, as they are 3-14 in their last 17 with a total from 9 to 10.5. The Rockies have cashed in on 20 of the last 26 meetings played here, and have the edge tonight. Take the Rockies.

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The Philly Godfather

My Moves

MLB [968] NY YANKEES EV [Action] 100: EV
MLB [963] CIN REDS +119 [Action] 100: +119
MLB [952] ATL BRAVES -126 [Action] 100: -126

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BookiesHunter

31-10 run

3* Under 8.5 Rays/Yankees
3* Mariners

2* Over 56.5 Saskatchewan/Hamilton

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Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Jul 27, 2013






L.A. Angels @ OAKLAND
L.A. Angels +126 over OAKLAND

The A’s went off for six runs last night and evened up the series with a 6-4 win but it came against career stiff, Jerome Williams. When facing a half-decent pitcher, the A’s have very little chance of scoring more than three times. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer in 12 of their past 19 games. Over that stretch they scored more than three times against Wade Davis, Luis Mendoza, Jerome Williams twice, and in Houston against three Astro starters. From July 3 to July 20, Oakland was held to three runs or fewer in 10 of 12 games and their .211 batting average in July is the worst in the majors. They A’s are no better than at least three quarters of the teams in MLB but some incredible luck, extremely timely hitting and misleading record continues to have them way overpriced. Enter Tommy Milone. Milone's upside is capped, for now. A control artist in the minors, Milone's ability to maintain similar accuracy in his second MLB season has been integral to his success but it's hard to overlook a few glaring negatives in his skill set. Milone has allowed far too many fly balls and line drives, but pitching home games at O.co Coliseum (-12% RHB HR, -31% LHB HR) has worked to his benefit (3.20 home ERA/4.88 road ERA). His groundball/fly-ball split is an alarming 33%/48%. Righties continue to give him problems, as they have hit .276 against him and the Angels line-up can load up with right-handed hitters. Milone’s 1.26 WHIP is average and his xERA of 4.64 reminds us not to overpay. If you bet on him today, you’re overpaying.
Garrett Richards will be making his first start since April. Despite a 6.26 ERA in those four starts, Richards was pretty solid (18/7 K/BB) and probably didn't deserve to lose his rotation spot. Overall, Richards has been quite good this season, albeit mostly as a reliever, with an elite 57% groundball rate. Over the past month (31 days), Richards’ groundball rate was 64% and he struck out 13 batters in 13 frames while issuing just four walks. Richards has always had the potential and if he seizes this chance he could claim a more permanent rotation spot. At pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum against the weak hitting Athletics, his chances of winning are greater than the A’s with Milone going.

Our Pick
L.A. Angels +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)






Minnesota @ SEATTLE
Minnesota +131 over SEATTLE

The Twins won the opener here last night in a Felix Hernandez start and they get a much easier assignment here against Aaron Harang. Harang is coming off a 2-1 victory over the Indians and while that’s impressive, neither he nor the Mariners have won consecutive games that he’s started the entire season. Harang is hit and miss but he's playing with fire now. He’s allowed 15 bombs in just 90 innings and has a fly-ball bias profile of 38% groundballs and 44% fly-balls. Harang’s 5.06 ERA is fully supported by his xERA of 4.70. Harang is prone to the occasional blowup, rarely pitches a gem and his chances of losing remain greater than his chances of winning (5 W’s in 18 starts).
Samuel Deduno has pitched under the radar the entire season and continues to be undervalued. His strikeout total is low with just 36 in 69 innings but he’s a groundball artist with a rate of 64%, the highest mark in the majors among starters with at least 40 innings pitched. Deduno also has a 50%/13% dominant start/disaster start split and at this level, that’s an impressive stat. Deduno also has an elite 17% line-drive rate and 11% line-drive rate over his past four starts. The Mariners were hot but they’ve lost two of their last three and could not win with Felix Hernandez opposing Scott Diamond (one of the biggest mismatches on the mound this year) last night. Surely, they are much too risky (and overvalued) with Harang favored by this much over Deduno.

Our Pick
Minnesota +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)

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Betting Line Moves

West -3.5

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Sportswagers CFL

Today's Free Picks for Jul 27, 2013






Saskatchewan @ HAMILTON
Saskatchewan -3½ -106 over HAMILTON

The favorites are 14-4 this season. Road favorites are 5-0 and what that suggests is that unlike previous years, there is a big disparity in this league from the best to the worst. That brings us to this game. The Tiger-Cats were supposed to be a much better group but they’ve gotten progressively worse with each passing week. After giving the Argos a scare in Week 1, the ‘Cats were blown out by Edmonton in Week 2. Blown out by Edmonton is a sentence you’re not likely going to read again this season (although the final score was 30-20, it was 30-13 with just a couple of minutes remaining). An ugly 25-20 win over Winnipeg in Week 3 by Hamilton was followed by last week’s 37-0 debacle in Saskatchewan in a game the Riders were penalized for 100 yards. The Ti-Cats can’t move forward. They have no running game whatsoever, (Henry Burris lead the team last week with 10 rushing yards) and the passing game has not been able to compensate. Last week, Burris was benched in favor of Dan LeFevour late in the game. Hamilton is a mess and it’s somewhat unreasonable to expect them to clean things up against the league’s best team.
The Riders are a different team from 2012. They added a veteran presence during the off-season with the free-agent signings of defensive backs Dwight Anderson and Weldon Brown, linebacker Rey Williams and defensive ends John Chick and Ricky Foley. They have offensive weapons galore. Kory Sheets had 24 carries for 130 yards, last week, the fourth straight game he has surpassed 100 yards in rushing. Rob Bagg led all of the Riders receivers with five receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Weston Dressler had five receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown. The previous week, it was different players that contributed and we haven’t even mentioned Darian Durant yet, who converted 20-of-32 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns last week on a sprained foot. This week he’s healthier. It all adds up to the Riders averaging 37.8 points per game while allowing 16.8. If the Tiger-Cats come out and win this game or cover, so be it but everything tells us that is not going to happen. The Riders are the class of the league while Hamilton lacks everything, especially talent.

Our Pick
Saskatchewan -3½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Hoopsgooroo

968 Yanks +102
954 Nationals -144
972 Mariners -142
973 Red Sox +112
976 Indians +109
977 Royals +150
963 Reds +114

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Larry Ness

Yankees
dodgers
orioles

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Sports Handicapper King

Indians
Hamilton

Freeloader on tigers

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cashmyticket365

Washington Nationals

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Danny B
TEXAS ML

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Scott Landau Day Games:
LAA +137 / MIN +135

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Early Seabass Report:
50 Oakland