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Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Jul 30, 2013
N.Y. Mets @ MIAMI
N.Y. Mets +111 over MIAMI
The lone chip of the 2011 Carlos Beltran trade to the Giants, Zack Wheeler was brought up out of necessity last month. While a bit wild, he generated optimism with 6 innings of shutout ball in his debut. It's been up and down for the 23-year-old since then. Mirroring concerns about his game at Triple-A, Wheeler has been a little erratic with his control and prone to surrendering HR’s but the Marlins are not a home-run hitting team (last in the majors with just 62) and this is not a home-run hitting park. Wheeler displayed a strong strikeout rate while keeping the ball down at the minor league level and he’s getting progressively tougher after each start. More importantly, the Mets win when he starts. New York has won Wheeler’s last four starts and overall, they’re 5-2 in his starts. Wheeler has an ace-level ceiling and he and the Mets are certainly worth a wager taking back a price.
Nathan Eovaldi is attempting to re-live 2012’s September magic. Eovaldi appeared on several breakout lists for 2013, largely on his September performance in 2012. However, a spring training shoulder injury shut him down and since his recall in June, the early results have been mixed. In just seven starts, Eovaldi’s results have been better than his skills. His 3.54 ERA looks pretty on the surface, but a 24% hit rate is keeping it out of the 4.50 range, where it belongs. Eovaldi's strikeout rate is still below what one would expect for someone pumping a 96.9 mph four-seamer (as he’s done in 2013) and his control has gone a bit worse, leaving his command at a barely acceptable level. Overall, though, it’s still a raw package. It’s difficult to teach that velocity and he’s still green at 23 years old. But without the swings and misses, the fastball is pretty much an empty skill. Look for your 2013 second half, poor-team sleeper elsewhere.
Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)
Washington @ DETROIT
Washington +126 over DETROIT
Anibal Sanchez made a five-inning, solid return to the rotation on July 6. Two of his three games since then have also been of the pure-quality variety. Sanchez has posted the best strikeout rate of his career season-to-date with 119 K’s (33 walks) in 104 innings. That said, Sanchez does have one red-flag in his profile this year and it’s a significant one. His line-drive rate is 26% overall and 29% over his past five starts. That’s a high percentage that could result in some not so pretty stat lines. However, this has nothing to do with fading Sanchez and everything to do with taking back a tag on Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals.
Washington has nothing but talent on its roster but outside of the Blue Jays they have been this year’s biggest disappointment. However, they’ve won three in a row and they’re in second place now with a long way to go. Don’t be surprised to see a serious push from the Nats in the final two months. Then there’s Stephen Strasburg with just five wins in 20 starts. How can that be? Strasburg has allowed just 94 hits in 123.1 innings for a BAA of just .211 to go along with an elite 1.07 WHIP. He also has 127 K’s in his 123 frames, a 51% groundball rate and an elite level line-drive rate of just 17%. Over his last two starts, Strasburg has 18 K’s and 1 walk in 15 frames and the Nats are 0-2 in those games and 1-5 in his last six games. Strasburg is firmly among the game's best with a 2.85 ERA and a sick xERA over his last four starts of 1.55. He won’t win a Cy Young award this year but you would be hard pressed to find a single pitcher in baseball with better under the surface stats than Strasburg and few with better surface stats minus the W/L record. Anytime we’re offered a price on an elite profile like the one here, we’re quick to accept it and we absolutely make no exception here. If justice prevails, Strasburg may not lose another game for a while.
Our Pick
Washington +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)
San Fran @ PHILADELPHIA
San Fran/PHILADELPHIA over 9 +100
It’s the same old story regarding John Lannan. He’s always waiting in the wings and he always makes his way into the rotation at some point due to inevitable injuries to other starters. This year is no different, as Lannan has started just 10 games and comes in with a 4.13 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The ERA is somewhat respectable but the WHIP is not. His xERA of 5.36 over his last five starts reminds us that this is still John Lannan, a pitcher that has never had prolonged success, has a low strikeout rate of 31 K’s in 57 frames and sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 58 starts over the past two years. Current Giants have 28 hits in 74 career AB’s against Lannan for a BA of .374 and that’s because he’s never been able to get righties out consistently. The Giants may go off for a crooked number here and if they do, this one goes over early. If they don’t, that’s still ok because Lannan’s mound opponent is Barry Zito and he has almost no shot of throwing a good game.
Zito is in the rotation only because the Giants are playing him 20 million this season and they’ll keep sending him out there until his arm falls off. If he was making a normal salary, he would be nowhere near a pitching mound. After a lucky first month, Zito has progressively gone from bad to worse in May, June and July. On the road, Zito is 0-6 with an ERA of 9.39 after allowing 69 hits and 37 earned runs in 33.2 innings for a BAA of .426. The big-two overall metrics that wrap up the individual items - xERA and pure quality starts - are again far below desired levels. Zito’s xERA, in fact, is the worse of any pitcher in the big leagues since 2007. These are two frustrated teams and one or both of them is going to put up something crooked here.
Our Pick
SF/PHI Over 9 +100Comment
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Sportswagers CFL
Today's Free Picks for Jul 30, 2013
B.C. Lions -6½ @ TORONTO
B.C. Lions -6½ -110 over TORONTO
The favorites continue to take the money this season. They went 4-0 last week and they’re off to a 3-0 start this week. Overall, the chalk is 15-4 this season and they are 5-0 on the road. What that suggests is that there is little parity in this league right now and the Argonauts without Ricky Ray have little hope of changing that. With Ray, the Argos are just 2-2 with a win over Winnipeg and a fluke win in the season opener against Hamilton. Combined, the Tiger-Cats and Bombers are 2-8. With starting quarterback Ricky Ray sidelined by injury, the Argonauts are placing their offense in the hands of a second-year backup who was never offered a scholarship by a school outside his home state of Ohio. Zach Collaros showed flickers of promise at the University of Cincinnati, but not enough to spark serious interest from the NFL. The Argos saw something in him, signed him, and left him to learn the game from deep on the depth chart last season. No question, Collaros will be jazzed up and he’s definitely more mobile than Ray. However, the Argos are not deep in talented receivers and Toronto will also be playing without running back Chad Kackert, the reigning Grey Cup MVP. In Week 2, the Lions held Toronto’s healthy roster to 16 points. The Argos will be hard-pressed to match that mark here.
The Lions have won three straight, they boast one of the stingiest defenses in the league and although they are 3-1, they have not come close to playing their best football yet. B.C. has a strong running game and Travis Lulay is close to 1000 yards passing already. Defensively, B.C. is first in the league in yards allowed at 288.0 per game and they remain the only CFL team that is allowing fewer than 300 yards per game. The disparity between these two defenses is astounding, with the Argos allowing a massive 418 yards per game. The Lions always play well against Toronto with six straight wins and 16 wins in the past 17 games. This one might be the worst beating of them all. The chalk rolls on.
Our Pick
B.C. Lions -6½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)Comment
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The Philly Godfather
My Moves
- MLB [913] CIN REDS -150 [Action] 100: -150
Comment
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Bob Balfe
MLB
TEXAS RANGERS -140
(Holland/Wilson)
The Angels are on a losing streak and last night had a win snatched from them because of a pathetic bullpen. This team can't hit left handers and after a blown game like yesterday its tough to bounce back. Take TexasComment
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Bryan Leonard MLB ML - Tuesday, Jul 30 2013 8:05PM
TEXAS (-131) vs LA ANGELS double-dime betComment
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Cincinnati at San Diego (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati -150 (moneyline) at BetOnline
The Reds let one slip away last night, as they took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th, but watched the Padres plate a pair of runs for the walk-off win. Mat Latos takes the mound tonight for the Reds, and brings with him a 10-3 mark backed by a 3.39 ERA. That trumps the numbers produced this season by Edinson Valquez who enters at a disappointing 8-8 with a hefty 5.70 ERA. The Reds have now seen each of their last two games result in a loss when their opponents staged a walk-off win in each game. Teams over the past 10 seasons that have faced that fate are strong when coming back at 21-11 with a healthy 15.3% ROI when playing as a road favorite. I think the Reds come to play tonight, as they are 37-15 in Latos' last 52 starts. Play on Cincinnati.Comment
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Teddy Covers
20* Braves over 8Comment
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Cleveland Insider
Early MLB
3* Cardinals +1.5 (-175) 525/300
2* Cardinals/Pirates under 7 (-110) 220/200Comment
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PAUL LEINER
500* Marlins -120
100* Phillies -125
50* Royals -125Comment
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HANDICAPPINGKINGS
JIMMY
MLB
1* Philadelphia Phillies -136
1* Tampa Bay Rays -154
CFL
1* British Columbia Lions -6 -110
MARC
MLB
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians
1* UNDER 7.5 -110
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
1* UNDER 8.5 -110
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
1* UNDER 8 -120
PJ (Tennis)
2* Yanina Wickmayer -108
1* Stefanie Voegele +125
1* Alex Bogomolov Jr -110Comment
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Joe Gavazzi
Kansas City (Santana) (-125) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) 8:10 ET
5* Kansas City (Santana) (-125)
Whether it is actually possible for the Royals to track down both Cleveland and Detroit, whom they trail by 7 games, is a matter of conjecture. What is more important is that the Royals believe they can after a 6 game winning streak has pulled them even at 51-51. Only time will tell as we have seen 2 other teams (Philly and CWS) flounder badly after reaching .500. Yet this pitching matchup should work. In his return from injury season, I acknowledge that Pelfrey has pitched his best recently. But his YTD numbers remain at 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Those numbers are even worse from this mound. And in a pair of starts vs. KC this season, Pelfrey has a 9.72 ERA. Far prefer Santana who has been reborn since coming to the Heartland from the left coast. YTD numbers show Santana with a 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 107/30 KBB. In his last 4 starts against Minnesota, Santana is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Let’s try the Royals to break through the .500 barrier.Comment
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MIKE LINEBACK
2* Oakland A's Team Over 4 -120 | 10:05p ET
Coming right back with the A's to score some more runs tonight. They have scored 28 runs (7 rpg) in their last 4 games combined. Meanwhile, Toronto have given up 4+ runs in 14 of their L17 games & 5+ runs in 6 of their L8 games overall.Comment
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'Under Bettors Happy to see Marlins vs. Martinez Melee
The Miami Marlins’ terrible 2013 season got even uglier this past weekend when hitting coach Tino Martinez quit after an altercation with players during batting practice.
But it’s not like the Marlins can get any worse at the plate without the former Yankee great tinkering with their swings. Miami is dead last in just about every hitting statistic, including runs per game (3.20), batting average (.232) and home runs (62).
Those stinky stats have led to a 40-64 record heading into Tuesday and have cost Miami backers – if they really exist - -7.28 units on the year. Total bettors, however, are more than happy to see the Marlins offense continue to implode and Martinez walk away.
Miami is 43-54-7 over/under (fourth-best under in NL), most notably 19-30-3 over/under on the road (60.5 percent under). Since Martinez walked, the Marlins are 1-1 over/under, losing 6-5 to the New York Mets and topping the 7-run total Monday.
According to FoxSports Ken Rosenthal, Martinez got in a confrontation after three players refused to pick up balls during batting practice, including second baseman Derek Dietrich, who Martinez said he grabbed by the jersey. Martinez officially resigned Sunday after the press caught wind of the BP dust-up.
“Do you realize I’m out of baseball basically because a couple of players didn't pick up balls in the cage when I asked them to?,” he told FoxSports. “As a coach, when I asked them to pick up the balls, why didn’t they just say, ‘Absolutely, no problem, I’ll do it right now.’ ”
Miami is a -137 home favorite hosting New York Tuesday. The total is set at 7.5 runs.Comment
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Sports Handicapper King
Mets
Freeloader on TexasComment
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