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Steve Golf Picks
Bridgestone Invitational
4* Tiger Woods: 45-1
Laird: 125-1
Kuchar: 25-1
Day: 30-1
Head to Head
Day over Schwartzel @+105 -
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO
The PGA Tour is doing double duty this week, the second time this season that a regular tour event and a WGC event are taking place the same week.
This week, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational takes center stage with all but two players in the Top 50 in the OWGR competing from the Firestone Country Club South Course in Akron, Ohio. The Reno-Tahoe has to deal with that along with preceding the PGA Championship.
We focus on the Bridgestone for betting purposes as we have a field that has not been seen on many occasions this season because of its strength. In total, 72 players are in the limited field and, as is the normal case in these invitational tournaments, there’s no cut and the winner’s purse is $1.4 million while the minimum payout is $35,000. So there is a lot on the line.
The South Course at Firestone seems almost unfair to amateurs. It’s a Par 70 but measures 7,400 yards making it the longest Par-70 course of all non-majors. Surprisingly, the bombers off the tee don’t have a huge edge. The real way to score is hitting greens in regulation as the greens can be very receptive and can lead to good birdie chances. Firestone South ranked 16th out of 49 courses in difficulty last season.
Tiger Woods (+400) is the overwhelming favorite this week and for good reason. He’s won here seven times throughout his career, although his last victory came in 2009. He’s coming in with plenty of confidence with four wins but a Sunday meltdown at the Open Championship is his most recent action. Still, he’s tough to look past and even at short odds, we will add him as a hedge bet.
Matt Kuchar (+2,000) is coming off another strong finish as he placed T2 in Canada last week. The last time he finished second, which was at Colonial, he came back the very next week at the Memorial and won it. He has won twice this season to go along with five other Top 10s. Firestone is a place he likes, finishing T8, T19 and T9 the last three years.
The limited starts for Steve Stricker (+2,500) have not hurt his performance. He has four Top 10s in seven medal play events. He has finished outside the Top 20 only once and he’s coming off a T10 at the John Deere Classic in his last start. He leads the tour in greens hit, even though it’s unofficial because of his lack of rounds. He followed up a T9 in 2010 and a solo 14th in 2011 with a T2 at Firestone last year.
Henrik Stenson (+3,000) is getting the best odds from the Top 15, in my opinion. He’s playing his best golf of the season with two Top 5s in his last five PGA Tour starts, including a solo second at Muirfield. Prior to that was a T3 at the Scottish Open and his statistics fit the bill at Firestone. He’s first in driving accuracy at 71 percent and second in greens hit, also at 71 percent.
Bubba Watson (+4,000) is getting some solid odds despite having a rather disappointing season. He has three Top 10s with a solo fourth and a T4 being his best finishes, but he has been consistent with only two missed cuts in 15 medal play events. His length could be an advantage based on weather and his recent form at Firestone has been solid with a T19, T21 and T22 the last three years.
For a long shot this week, we turn to Angel Cabrera (+5,000). He was in the hunt at Muirfield until a double bogey on 16 Saturday turned the corner and he went 5-over in his last 21 holes. Still, it was a T11 finish which was his third straight Top 15. His solo second at the Masters is still his best finish of the season and he has had success at Firestone with three Top-5 finishes.
Recommended tournament win six pack at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (all for one unit)
Tiger Woods (+400)
Matt Kuchar (+2,000)
Steve Stricker (+2,500)
Henrik Stenson (+3,000)
Bubba Watson (+4,000)
Angel Cabrera (+5,000)Comment
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Capping the calendar: August's best and worst MLB pitchers
By MARC LAWRENCE
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a 2-to-1 or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of August.
On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in August team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts.
To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each August over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…
GOOD AUGUST PITCHERS
Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals • 13-5
Since being placed back in the starting rotation, Chen has been a valuable commodity for Kansas City and continued to throw extremely well, producing a 2.09 ERA. If the Royals are really going to make a run at the wildcard, Chen will have to match his previous August numbers.
Yovanni Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers • 12-4
Though just 27 years old, the radar gun does not lie and the Milwaukee right-hander has lost three to four MPH off his fastball accounting for career-worst ERA (4.91). It doesn’t help playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, but this is his own doing, with opposing right-hand hitters ripping a robust .286 against his tosses. Can he turn it around this month like in the past?
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies • 12-5
On July 21, Halladay threw off a mound for the first time since having corrective surgery on his throwing shoulder. Reports have his range of motion much improved, but at this juncture his return this month is questionable.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners • 12-5
It is just remarkable. Year after year, King Felix keeps putting up phenomenal numbers, despite pitching for a mediocre Seattle club. This season has been no different and Hernandez has not lost a game since May 25 and history tells us he will not drop many this month either.
Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres • 13-5
After winning 36 games the last two years, it hasn’t been a good year for the former-Arizona right-hander with only three victories. This season he’s giving up over a hit an inning and he’s on pace to surrender a career-high in walks if he generates enough innings. The Diamondbacks traded him to San Diego on July 31 to upgrade their depleted bullpen.
Roy Oswalt, Colorado Rockies • 9-3
Suffered an injury on July 22 and has been doing rehab work since. He could come back this month, but at 0-4 with 7.64 ERA with the Rockies, there’s no reason to rush Oswalt back, who’s a shell of his Astros days.
C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees • 11-5
Sabathia turned 33 years old last month and has lost three to four MPH on his fastball. At 95-plus you can miss spots and still get out big league hitters. However, with decreased movement and throwing in the low 90s, C.C.’s ERA could be headed for the worst of his stellar career. Still thought of as a big-game pitcher, Sabathia has to rebound or the Yankees have no shot at the playoffs.
Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals • 13-4
Though his record doesn’t show it, the change of scenery helped Santana and the 30-year-old Kansas City pitcher has been hovering around three with his ERA all year. Santana continues to pound the strike zone and he’s conceded only 31 walks in 21 starts.The Royals were playing good baseball at the end of July and if the Dominican dandy stays true to form, K.C. might be playing meaningful games all month long.
Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers • 11-5
There have been Scherzer critics, pointing to his gaudy record of 15-1 being a byproduct of run support and very favorable pitching matchups. While there might be a speck of truth in this argument, ask opposing hitters what they think, batting .197 against him. And he’s second in punch-outs in the American League.
James Shields, Kansas City Royals • 13-4
The Royals righty is beginning to command his pitches better and is working later into games, as was his custom with Tampa Bay. If Shields can continue to throw well and match his road ERA (2.50), he and Santana form a nice 1-2 combo at the top of the Kansas City rotation.
BAD AUGUST PITCHERS
A. J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates • 4-11
At this time, Burnett only has 25 percent of the total wins he had in 2012, yet his ERA is a half a run lower, suggesting the lack of run support. If Burnett can keep throwing strikes with his cut fastball and sweeping curveball, the runs should come. Missing a few starts in June should help be fresher in the later stages of the season.
Kevin Corriea, Minnesota Twins • 4-9
The Minnesota right-hander has done his part to be a part of the worst starting pitching staff in baseball and has a 5.27 ERA in his last 10 outings. A combined 80 hits and walks over 54.2 innings will lead to a bloated ERA. No reason to believe soft-tossing Corriea will improve his stock with the Twins.
Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles Angels • 3-7
His record might say 4-2, but Hanson has been another bust for Los Angeles. To this point, he’s only made 11 starts after being counted on as the fourth or fifth man in the Angels rotation with an ERA over five. Hanson’s 11-4 rookie campaign of 2009 seems a long time ago.
Roberto Hernandez, Tampa Bay Rays • 4-10
Even positive skipper Joe Maddon is finding it challenging to say upbeat about this pitcher. The Rays have a plethora of outstanding starting pitchers and more are on the way. Simply speaking, by whatever name, Hernandez and his 4.71 ERA is not getting it done.
Tim Hernandez, San Francisco Giants • 5-11
Though Lincecum has generally thrown better this year compared to last, chances are this will be the third straight year he will finish with a record below .500. San Francisco will have to make a decision about the undersized state of Washington native, who will likely never again reach 220 or more strikeouts, which he did from 2008 to 2011. Strictly a 50/50 proposition these days.
Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves • 5-10
After a quick start with the Braves, Maholm has settled into career pattern of being ordinary ball chucker. His only saving grace is being on Atlanta, which can hit home runs in bunches. Right-handed batters are hitting .301 against his deliveries in 2013.
Ross Ohlendorf, Washington Nationals • 2-9
Starting the season at Triple-A Syracuse, Ohlendorf was advanced to the Washington roster in June and has pitched mostly in relief except for a couple a good spot starts for the Nationals. The more he starts, the more the righty will be exposed.
Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners • 5-11
At this juncture of his career, Saunders is a back of the rotation hurler who can eat up innings. This year, his splits are incredible and probably should be used accordingly. The lefty has a 3.62 ERA at Safeco Field, compared to a 5.53 ERA in away games. And the time of day Saunders pitches have day and night results, literally. His ERA is 3.80 after dark and an unsettling 6.58 during the day.Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Reds on Wednesday and likes the White Sox on Thursday.
The deficit is 1283 sirignanos.Comment
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Harvey is 1-0, 1.64 in his last three starts.
-- Pirates won six of last seven Morton starts (3-1, 4.78). Kelly is 1-1, 2.70 in four starts this season.
-- Cain is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Teheran is 0-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
-- Rusin is 1-0, 1.46 in his last couple starts.
-- Darvish is 2-2, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 2-0, 1.27 in his last three starts.
-- Shields is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 0.90 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Koehler ia 1-1, 5.14 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 0-2, 3.60 in his last three starts.
-- Bettis is 3-4, 3.71 in 12 AAA starts; this is his MLB debut.
-- Spruill is 4-3, 3.24 in 12 AAA starts this year; he's allowed one run in 4.1 IP in bigs- this is his first MLB start.,
-- Sale is 1-8, 3.45 in his last ten starts; White Sox were blanked in three of his last five starts.
-- Diamond is 0-3, 5.81 in his last six starts.
-- Former Astro Norris is 0-2, 8.47 in his last three starts. Lyles is 0-3, 9.40 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 6.66 RA in his last five starts.
-- Johnson is 0-4, 8.27 in his last six starts. Richards is 0-2, 6.11 in last three.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Harvey 4-21; Koehler 5-12
-- Kelly 0-4; Morton 2-8
-- Cain 7-21; Hamels 4-22
-- Bettis 0-0; Teheran 7-20
-- Nolasco 6-21; Rusin 1-3
-- Spruill 0-0; Darvish 6-19 (1 of last 9)
-- Sale 6-20 (0 of last 5); Masterson 3-22
-- Shields 9-21; Diamond 6-19
-- Lyles 5-16; Norris 7-21
-- Hernandez 3-22; Dempster 7-20
-- Johnson 3-14; Richards 0-5
Totals
-- 13 of last 15 Marlin games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten St Louis games stayed under total.
-- Last four Philly games went over the total.
-- Last six Colorado games went over the total.
-- Last five Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Texas games.
-- Eight of last twelve Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Baltimore games.
-- Six of last nine Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Angel home games stayed under total.
Hot teams
-- Marlins are 6-4 in their last ten home games.
-- Pirates won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Braves won six of their last seven games.
-- Dodgers won 27 of their last 34 games.
-- Rangers won four of their last five home games.
-- Indians won their last seven games, scoring 44 runs.
-- Kansas City won its last eight games, allowing 15 runs.
-- Boston won 15 of its last 21 games at Fenway Park.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven games.
Cold teams
-- Mets lost four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals lost their last seven games, scoring ten runs.
-- Giants lost nine of last ten games; Phillies lost eight of last ten.
-- Rockies lost four of their last five games.
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Arizona lost 13 of its last 18 road games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 18 games; Baltimore lost six of last eight.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games.
-- Angels lost nine of their last eleven games.Comment
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Today's MLB Picks
Seattle at Boston
The Mariners look to build on their 5-2 record in Felix Hernandez' last 7 starts against the Red Sox. Seattle is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 1
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 901-902: NY Mets at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 15.982; Miami (Koehler) 14.494
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-165); UnderGame 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.421; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.368
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); OverGame 905-906: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 13.660; Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.041
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); UnderGame 907-908: Colorado at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Bettis) 13.677; Atlanta (Teheran) 17.140
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-220); OverGame 909-910: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 16.076; Cubs (Rusin) 14.306
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); N/AGame 911-912: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.904; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.975
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); UnderGame 913-914: Kansas City at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.433; Minnesota (Diamond) 16.195
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); UnderGame 915-916: Houston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 13.578; Baltimore (Norris) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-260); OverGame 917-918: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.116; Boston (Dempster) 15.152
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); UnderGame 919-920: Toronto at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Johnson) 14.459; LA Angels (Richards) 15.856
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); OverGame 921-922: Arizona at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Spruill) 14.035; Texas (Darvish) 15.537
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-220); UnderComment
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Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners +102 over Boston Red Sox
(System Record: 56-6, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 56-62-1
Soccer Crusher
Montevideo Wanderers + Libertad OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 435-15, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 435-371-57Comment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
Indiana at Connecticut
The Fever look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 Thursday games. Indiana is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 1
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 651-652: Indiana at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.764; Connecticut 107.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 137
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1 1/2); UnderGame 653-654: Phoenix at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 109.394; Seattle 112.154
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2); OverComment
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Joe Wiz
Free Play Thursday Houston/Baltimore Under 9 1/2Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 1073-802 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !
Free winner THURS: Royals w/ ShieldsComment
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Gamblers Data
Free Play Thursday
Indians -145Comment
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Cappers Access
Royals(RL) -1.5(+105)
Mariners -110Comment
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bookiemonsters
121-79 run
29-22 run last 51 plays
pod cardinals under 8Comment
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River City Sharps
2 UNITS San Francisco Giants +111Comment
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