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Today's Free Picks for Aug 03, 2013
Toronto @ L.A. ANGELS
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +128 over Toronto
The Blue Jays are 0-2 in this series and things don’t figure to get any better here with Esmil Rogers on the hill. Rogers’ is a pitcher in trouble. He’s never pitched more than in 83 innings in a season and he’s already up to 89 this year. Not only is Rogers’ durability in question, his confidence is shot after allowing 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 17 innings. Rogers has been absolutely torched in four of his last five games and he now has the daunting task of having to face a hot-hitting line-up that has gone off for 15 runs in the past two games and 27 runs in the last four. Rogers has a history of being hit hard. He was torched in 2011 and then escaped Colorado for Cleveland, where he was hit hard there as well. A rejuvenated Rogers appeared for a short while this year but he’s back to being the same stiff he was in Colorado and Cleveland. Rogers is a guy that throws way too many pitches right down Broadway and hitters are feasting off him. The Angels should do the same.
Jered Weaver is winning games again. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with an ERA of 0.42. At home this season, Weaver is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA. There’s also a good chance that Weaver will be pitching with a comfortable lead very early on and should that come to pass, this assignemnt becomes much easier. Weaver had a rough start to the year but he’s now pitching at top form. That said, this one has nothing to do with backing Weaver but everything to do with backing a sizzling offense against a laboring Esmil Rogers.
Our Pick
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)
Texas @ OAKLAND
Texas +109 over OAKLAND
We’ve been maintaining for some time now that the A’s winning pace is unsustainable with an offense that ranks in the same range as the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Cubs and Twins. Alexi Ogando walked five batters and allowed four hits in the first four innings last night but the A’s could not do much damage. They ended up losing 8-3 and did not score again after the fourth inning. Against the Blue Jays on Thursday, the A’s scored two unearned runs and lost a game in which Toronto committed four errors. Oakland has now lost three in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here against Matt Garza. In two starts since coming over from the Cubbies, Garza has allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs in 14.1 frames for an ERA of 1.88. Garza has posted an ERA in the 3’s every year since 2007 and current A’s have just 18 hits against him in 89 career AB’s for a BA of just .202. Garza and the Rangers taking back a tag against this overvalued squad holds true value.
Texas is making a move. They were six games behind Oakland in the AL West earlier this week and they are now just 2½ games back after winning its fifth straight last night. The Rangers offense has woken up with 35 runs scored over their current five-game winning streak and that’s bad news for Jarrod Parker. Over his last five starts covering 25 frames, Parker has walked 12 and struck out 14. He has an xERA of 6.45 over that span but his actual ERA of 3.99 over that stretch has him grossly overpriced here. What’s even more alarming is that Parker has a 4.81 ERA at home at perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the league and certainly in the AL. Parkers skills have been on a steady decline for weeks and he now has to face a team that is seeing beach balls right now. Keep Jarrod Parker and the A’s on your radar as fade material because there is some profit to be made in wagering against them.
Our Pick
Texas +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
N.Y. Yankees @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO/N.Y. Yankees under 7 +102
New York has won just five of its past 15 games and dropped the opener in this series last night, 7-2. The Yanks are losing games at an unfamiliar pace because of an offense that can’t produce. The Yanks have now scored three runs or fewer in nine of their past 15 games and things don’t get easier here against Tyson Ross. In two starts since being inserted into the starting rotation, Ross has allowed just five hits in 14 innings at two hitter-friendly venues in Arizona and Milwaukee. Over those 14 innings, Ross struck out 13 and walked just three. Overall, Ross has appeared in 24 games this season but just five have been as a starter and that’s the role he’s most comfortable in. In 59 total innings this year, Ross has an elite 54% groundball rate and an outstanding 14% line-drive rate. Ross’s Achilles Heel in the past was a lack of control but he’s walked just four batters over his past 17 innings. He has the stuff to succeed and it appears he’s quickly figuring things out. Ross has a great shot to continue his hot run against the light hitting Yanks.
Ivan Nova lost his starting gig after an unlucky April (44% hit-rate/63% strand rate), followed by a triceps injury and a three-week stint in Triple-A thanks to the emergence of David Phelps. Fast forward to July and Phelps winds up on the DL and Nova's strings together four strong starts in a row. Are we buying his comeback? You better believe it. Last year's strikeout rate gains for Nova appear to be no fluke, as it has actually risen and his groundball rate has come along for the ride. Factor in hr/f% correction and Nova's ERA becomes palatable again, only this time with significant room for improvement. Nova's posted an impressive 28/6 K/BB in four starts since returning to the rotation and his skills suggest continued long-term success as long as he remains there upon Phelps' return. It’s not customary for us to play under 7 but these are two pitchers that are not only under the radar but have outstanding beneath the surface stats. That makes this ticket very cashable.
Our Pick
SAN DIEGO/N.Y. Yankees under 7 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 03, 2013
Toronto @ L.A. ANGELSL.A. ANGELS -1½ +128 over Toronto
The Blue Jays are 0-2 in this series and things don’t figure to get any better here with Esmil Rogers on the hill. Rogers’ is a pitcher in trouble. He’s never pitched more than in 83 innings in a season and he’s already up to 89 this year. Not only is Rogers’ durability in question, his confidence is shot after allowing 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 17 innings. Rogers has been absolutely torched in four of his last five games and he now has the daunting task of having to face a hot-hitting line-up that has gone off for 15 runs in the past two games and 27 runs in the last four. Rogers has a history of being hit hard. He was torched in 2011 and then escaped Colorado for Cleveland, where he was hit hard there as well. A rejuvenated Rogers appeared for a short while this year but he’s back to being the same stiff he was in Colorado and Cleveland. Rogers is a guy that throws way too many pitches right down Broadway and hitters are feasting off him. The Angels should do the same.
Jered Weaver is winning games again. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with an ERA of 0.42. At home this season, Weaver is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA. There’s also a good chance that Weaver will be pitching with a comfortable lead very early on and should that come to pass, this assignemnt becomes much easier. Weaver had a rough start to the year but he’s now pitching at top form. That said, this one has nothing to do with backing Weaver but everything to do with backing a sizzling offense against a laboring Esmil Rogers.
Our Pick
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)
Texas @ OAKLANDTexas +109 over OAKLAND
We’ve been maintaining for some time now that the A’s winning pace is unsustainable with an offense that ranks in the same range as the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Cubs and Twins. Alexi Ogando walked five batters and allowed four hits in the first four innings last night but the A’s could not do much damage. They ended up losing 8-3 and did not score again after the fourth inning. Against the Blue Jays on Thursday, the A’s scored two unearned runs and lost a game in which Toronto committed four errors. Oakland has now lost three in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here against Matt Garza. In two starts since coming over from the Cubbies, Garza has allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs in 14.1 frames for an ERA of 1.88. Garza has posted an ERA in the 3’s every year since 2007 and current A’s have just 18 hits against him in 89 career AB’s for a BA of just .202. Garza and the Rangers taking back a tag against this overvalued squad holds true value.
Texas is making a move. They were six games behind Oakland in the AL West earlier this week and they are now just 2½ games back after winning its fifth straight last night. The Rangers offense has woken up with 35 runs scored over their current five-game winning streak and that’s bad news for Jarrod Parker. Over his last five starts covering 25 frames, Parker has walked 12 and struck out 14. He has an xERA of 6.45 over that span but his actual ERA of 3.99 over that stretch has him grossly overpriced here. What’s even more alarming is that Parker has a 4.81 ERA at home at perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the league and certainly in the AL. Parkers skills have been on a steady decline for weeks and he now has to face a team that is seeing beach balls right now. Keep Jarrod Parker and the A’s on your radar as fade material because there is some profit to be made in wagering against them.
Our Pick
Texas +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
N.Y. Yankees @ SAN DIEGOSAN DIEGO/N.Y. Yankees under 7 +102
New York has won just five of its past 15 games and dropped the opener in this series last night, 7-2. The Yanks are losing games at an unfamiliar pace because of an offense that can’t produce. The Yanks have now scored three runs or fewer in nine of their past 15 games and things don’t get easier here against Tyson Ross. In two starts since being inserted into the starting rotation, Ross has allowed just five hits in 14 innings at two hitter-friendly venues in Arizona and Milwaukee. Over those 14 innings, Ross struck out 13 and walked just three. Overall, Ross has appeared in 24 games this season but just five have been as a starter and that’s the role he’s most comfortable in. In 59 total innings this year, Ross has an elite 54% groundball rate and an outstanding 14% line-drive rate. Ross’s Achilles Heel in the past was a lack of control but he’s walked just four batters over his past 17 innings. He has the stuff to succeed and it appears he’s quickly figuring things out. Ross has a great shot to continue his hot run against the light hitting Yanks.
Ivan Nova lost his starting gig after an unlucky April (44% hit-rate/63% strand rate), followed by a triceps injury and a three-week stint in Triple-A thanks to the emergence of David Phelps. Fast forward to July and Phelps winds up on the DL and Nova's strings together four strong starts in a row. Are we buying his comeback? You better believe it. Last year's strikeout rate gains for Nova appear to be no fluke, as it has actually risen and his groundball rate has come along for the ride. Factor in hr/f% correction and Nova's ERA becomes palatable again, only this time with significant room for improvement. Nova's posted an impressive 28/6 K/BB in four starts since returning to the rotation and his skills suggest continued long-term success as long as he remains there upon Phelps' return. It’s not customary for us to play under 7 but these are two pitchers that are not only under the radar but have outstanding beneath the surface stats. That makes this ticket very cashable.
Our Pick
SAN DIEGO/N.Y. Yankees under 7 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
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