11-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
119 Illinois -2.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 120 Northwestern
Analysis: *** NCAAFB 3* "EARLY STEAM" GAME of the WEEK ***

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

igz1 sports

CFB GAME OF THE YEAR !! 11/22/08
2-0 in GoY's Underdog and Totals in CFB so far this year ! This is my Last GOY in College for the season i only have 3 in each sport. Remember when you win please come back and Donate !!
I have a huge card this saturday and these are the ones to hit now as lines are trending the wrong direction. The rest will be posted friday night .

CFB
5* NC State +11 (-110) GOY !
4* Over 65 (-110) Marshal vs Rice
4* Wake Forest -2 (-110)
4* Boisie State -6.5 (-110)
3* Mississippi +3.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

ETHAN LAW

Each week this season in the Big 12 conference there seems to be a game of huge importance, and each succeeding week the importance of said game takes on a greater importance towards deciding who will represent the Big 12 in the National Championship game. Let's be honest here, whatever team wins the ultra competitive South division of the Big 12 is almost a shoe-in for the big game. Although Missouri may have a say in preventing that from happening in the Big 12 Championship game. The game I am talking about this week is, of course, between #2 ranked Texas Tech (10-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS) and #5 ranked Oklahoma (9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS). This game was set up perfectly by the fact that both teams had a bye last week. It's almost as if the scheduling gods knew ahead of time how important this game would be, and wanted both teams rested and emotionally recharged for what should be just a fantastic game.

When comparing these teams, there is really very little to choose from as far as finding an fundamental match-up advantage either has over the other. Both are led by Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback. Oklahoma's Sophomore leader Sam Bradford has been brilliant this season completing 67.9% of his passes for 3406 yards with a gaudy 38-6 TD to interception rate. Texas Tech is led by Sr. gunslinger Graham Harrell with 4077 passing yards, 71.7% completion rate and an equally gaudy 36-5 TD to int. rate. Texas Tech uses their passing game in place of a running game often with more timing routes, while Oklahoma throws the ball downfield just a bit more, which explains Harrell's higher completion rate and Bradford's rather large advantage in yards per attempt (10.3 to 8.8). Both teams run the ball very efficiently, though Oklahoma chooses to do so more often. Oklahoma has amassed 1943 rushing yards at a 4.6 yard per carry rate, Texas Tech though ranks 11th in the Big 12 in rushing yards with only 1326, though a 5.2 yard per carry clip proves they are very capable on the ground also. The Red Raiders running game often surprises their opponents, who fall asleep defending pass after pass, because as I stated above, they more often than not use the short passing game as a pseudo running game, with short slant and timing routes. As you see, both teams have nearly unstoppable offensive attacks, though Oklahoma chooses to run more often and Texas Tech uses a relentless passing attack.

Defensively both stack up similarly also. The Sooners allow 23.6 points per game and Texas Tech 22.2. Oklahoma allows 3.2 yards per carry on the ground and Texas Tech 3.4 yards per carry. Slight edge to the Sooners there...but minimal at best. The one area where there is a tangible edge for either team though is pass defense. The Sooners have allowed just 52.7% of passes completed against them. In a pass happy conference filled with high scoring teams that may be the most impressive statistic I have seen all year. In comparison, the 2nd best completion % allowed by any other Big 12 team is Texas...57.1% allowed. Texas Tech's pass defense allows a completion rate of 62.2%. Finally we have found an advantage! In a game that features such high scoring unstoppable offenses, every incomplete pass may loom large. It may mean the difference between converting a 3rd down attempt and a punt. As they say, possession is 9 tenths of the law, and Oklahoma has a slight advantage on defense that may mean the difference in this huge game.

The whole purpose of analyzing all those aspects of both teams was to prove that there really is very little advantage here for either team statistically, except for the slight edge the Sooners have defensively, coupled with home field advantage. My next question is this then, why is Oklahoma a 7 point favorite? I fully understand they have a strong home field advantage, but these teams appear to be as equally matched as possible, and even if allowing 4 points for home field, this line seems a little off to me. Perception certainly would not dictate that Oklahoma be a full touchdown favorite over the higher ranked team here. Perception is that Tech is at least the Sooners equal. Oklahoma lost to Texas by 10 points in a game that was statistically a wash. The Red Raiders beat that same Texas team and dominated in the stats by a 579-374 yard advantage. Anyone that watched that game would admit Texas Tech was the better team that day. Anyone that watched the Sooners loss to Texas would honestly say that the better team won that day also. Again I ask, WHY ARE THE SOONERS a FULL touchdown favorites? The answer is this, in my opinion the bookmaker is simply begging for money on the underdog here. Had they set the line at 4 or 4.5 where it by all rights should be, they would have had a very evenly bet game. They do not set lines too high or low in games unless they are comfortable taking one-sided action in a game. As of this writing there is more than twice the number of bets taken on this game than any other on Saturday, and with good reason. It is the biggest game on the schedule and every bettor alive will have money bet on this game, if only just to have action on the biggest game of the year so far. They are getting the one-sided action they desire with 72% of all straight bets on Texas Tech, 70% of all parlay bets including this game on Texas Tech and an unbelievable 89% of all money line wagers coming in on the underdog. Anyone familiar with the betting patterns of "joe public" knows they are drawn almost without exception to take the favorite. That is also why most sharp bettors will always look to take the underdog first when sizing up a game. In this case, in the highest profile game of the week, they set the line "too high" because they have no qualms taking such a large handle disproportionately bet. Vegas expects the Sooners to cover. There are many trends and situations I could enumerate to back this play, the truth is none of them mean anything by themselves. When "the house" wants money on one side, you take the other. Sooners probably win by 10-20 points in a hard fought close game and a key turnover being the deciding factor. Lay the chalk.

Verdict: Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma 56
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON OKLAHOMA -7 +$105

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Red Dog Sports

NC State +11 (3 units)

These teams are less than 30 minutes apart so travel is no problem. The 4 NC schools in the ACC are 7-22 ATS facing each other in the last 29. The underdog in this rivalry is 2-8 ATS in the last 10.

NCSU has played well with Russell Wilson at QB and is 6-0 ATS in the ACC this year and the only game they lost by more than 10 was the opener at Clemson, which they covered. Wilson is a threat to run (UNC's QB is not, whether it is Yates or Sexton) and he has 12 TD passes on the year with only 1 interception.

Look for a close game with both teams in the 20's, something like 27-24. I love getting 11 points in this matchup.

NCSU +11

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

SPYLOCK

Northwestern.....5 unit

boston college
oregon st.
U conn. ......all 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Colin Cowherd 4-0 LW 35-19 YTD 65%

Utah -7
28-20

Texas Tech +7
38-36

Arizona -2.5
31-24

Penn State -13.5
36-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Tom's College Football System Play of the Week!

Season Finale Spread Beater
Over the past few weeks, I've turned you on to a couple of last home game and last road game sets that have been profitable. This week, I'm going to continue on with my late-season assault and rip apart a last game scenario that has been money-in-the-bank over the years.
This college football system deals with teams playing their last regular season game. When I first started doing research on "last game sets", I focused on teams coming off a string of straight up losses. My thought was that these schools would want to close on a high note with a victory in their last game. Honestly, I never found anything substantial with regards to straight up losses. But, I did uncover a very powerful situation that focused on teams entering off consecutive ATS blemishes. Take a look:
Play ON any college football team playing in its last regular season game provided they enter off two or more pointspread losses and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more straight up wins.
28 Year Record = 112-78-2 ATS for 58.9 percent!
Investing your hard earned money on a team that just lost to the pointspread two (or more) times in a row is tough. It's even more difficult to open up your wallet on a team like this when they are matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum off two (or more) straight up wins. The knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the team that hasn't covered. However, that's exactly what you don't want to do! On Saturday, there is one school locked into this "play on" situation: Penn State.
There are a couple of tighteners to this Season Final Spread Beater system that really make it pop. First, if our "play on" team lost to the pointspread by six points or more last, this awesome situation skyrockets to a sizzling 84-47 ATS for 64.1 percent. Thanks to a pair of non-covers including a blowout loss to the pointspread the last time out we are fortunate to get tremendous line value here. The Nittany Lions apply to this tightener.
Finally, with out 84-47 ATS in hand, this technical situation improves to an awesome 62-29 ATS provided our "play on" team is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .400 and less than .900. By eliminating the really good teams and those that are well below average, we improve this Spread Beater system to a marvelous 62-29 ATS for 68.1 percent. Penn State fits this special parameter.
Good luck with the Nittany Lions on Saturday and be sure to check back next week for some late-season NFL systems that really work! Good luck, TS.

Penn State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

igz1 sports


CFB 11/22/08 Card 2 Releases
CFB
4* Akron -2.5 (-110)
3* Over 71.5 (-110) Tulane vs Tulsa
3* BYU +7 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

bob akmens

10* temple -10.5

10* rice -9.5

20* utah -7

10* minny +6

10* hawaii -23.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

10* Asa
9-2 Lifetime
Penn State -14 1/2

Memphis
Tx Tech
AZ
BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Dave M@linsky

6-arkansas

5-nc St

4-mich St, Purdue, Pitt Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Doc Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Doc Enterprises:
5-purdue,

4-mich St, Nc St, Nd, Utah, Ms St, Nev

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFB UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 San Diego State (10)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Ethan Law
3% UTEP +17 -- syndicate play
3% STANFORD/CALIFORNIA UNDER 51
2% COLORADO STATE -2
2% SAN DIEGO STATE +10.5
2% N.C. STATE +11
2% ARIZONA -2.5
2% OKLAHOMA -7 +$105

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Teddy Covers GOY

Stanford