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Today's Free Picks for Aug 09, 2013
L.A. Angels @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -113 over L.A. Angels
The Angels have lost four in a row and they’re now 13 games out. Against lefties this season, L.A. is batting .239 and has 10 wins in 29 decisions. They face a tough one here in Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has not been taken yard in five straight games. Over that span he has a 1.72 ERA to go along with an elite WHIP of 0.89. Kazmir’s groundball rate is also trending the right way and is now up from 44% to 51% over his past 10 starts. Current Angels have just five hits in 27 AB’s against Kazmir for a BA of .185. The Indians are coming off some tough losses against the Tigers but they are still very much in this thing, as they sit just three games back in the Wild Card race.
Jered Weaver went 20-5 last season and he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts. Weaver is the reason that the Indians are such a short price here because on paper, Weaver looks like rather appealing taking back a price. Don’t believe any of it, as it is all an illusion that is about to come crashing down. Weaver is one of the rare pitchers that have been able to stave off lucky hit and strand percentages over his career and this season is no different. He comes in with a high and very lucky 82% strand rate over his past five starts. Weaver’s margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows. His FB velocity trend by season over the last four years: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.6. Weaver will have a much harder time inducing soft contact with a mid-80s fastball. He also has one of the worst groundball/fly-ball splits among AL starters at 33%/43%. Most people think that Weaver is an ace but we’re here to tell you he is not. His skills rank among the least appealing in the majors and it’s only a matter of time before we see a string of implosions from him and people will wonder why. The answers are above. Jered Weaver is not even an average pitcher anymore and he’s about to pay the price.
Our Pick
CLEVELAND -113 (Risking 2.26 units - To Win: 2.00)
Oakland @ TORONTO
TORONTO +103 over Oakland
Esmil Rogers has been struggling lately and the Blue Jays have dropped his last four starts but there are some things to like in his profile that include an increasing groundball rate that is up to 54% over his last five starts and 23 K’s over his last 27 innings. Rogers’ xERA over that time period is 4.00. However, this one is not about wagering on Esmil Rogers as much as it is about fading the overvalued A’s as road chalk.
The Blue Jays have won three of four and just scored 17 runs in a three-game series in Seattle. It would take Oakland a month to score 17 runs in Seattle. The Blue Jays have several hot hitters in a batting line-up that is vastly superior to the A’s line-up. Oakland has lost six of seven. Over that span they scored more than four runs just one time and have scored three runs or fewer in five of those. Over the past month, the A’s .199 batting average is the worst mark in the majors. Despite a 3.73 ERA over his last five starts, Jarrod Parker has actually seen his skills flounder lately with poor command and a 4.88 xERA over that time frame. Parker’s strikeout rate is declining and another problem has been that batters are squaring up his pitches when they do hit them. They have a .640 SLG % against his four-seam fastball, a .632 SLG% against his sinker, and a .478 SLG% against his slider. Those are some alarming numbers, The Rogers Center in Toronto is an extreme hitter’s park that enhances HR’s by 24% compared to other parks. Jarrod Parker’s groundball/fly-ball profile of 36%/41% is not likely to play well here. Parker is actually laboring worse than Rogers, the A’s are also laboring and Oakland is wrongly billed as the favorite here.
Our Pick
TORONTO +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 09, 2013
L.A. Angels @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -113 over L.A. Angels
The Angels have lost four in a row and they’re now 13 games out. Against lefties this season, L.A. is batting .239 and has 10 wins in 29 decisions. They face a tough one here in Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has not been taken yard in five straight games. Over that span he has a 1.72 ERA to go along with an elite WHIP of 0.89. Kazmir’s groundball rate is also trending the right way and is now up from 44% to 51% over his past 10 starts. Current Angels have just five hits in 27 AB’s against Kazmir for a BA of .185. The Indians are coming off some tough losses against the Tigers but they are still very much in this thing, as they sit just three games back in the Wild Card race.
Jered Weaver went 20-5 last season and he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts. Weaver is the reason that the Indians are such a short price here because on paper, Weaver looks like rather appealing taking back a price. Don’t believe any of it, as it is all an illusion that is about to come crashing down. Weaver is one of the rare pitchers that have been able to stave off lucky hit and strand percentages over his career and this season is no different. He comes in with a high and very lucky 82% strand rate over his past five starts. Weaver’s margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows. His FB velocity trend by season over the last four years: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.6. Weaver will have a much harder time inducing soft contact with a mid-80s fastball. He also has one of the worst groundball/fly-ball splits among AL starters at 33%/43%. Most people think that Weaver is an ace but we’re here to tell you he is not. His skills rank among the least appealing in the majors and it’s only a matter of time before we see a string of implosions from him and people will wonder why. The answers are above. Jered Weaver is not even an average pitcher anymore and he’s about to pay the price.
Our Pick
CLEVELAND -113 (Risking 2.26 units - To Win: 2.00)
Oakland @ TORONTOTORONTO +103 over Oakland
Esmil Rogers has been struggling lately and the Blue Jays have dropped his last four starts but there are some things to like in his profile that include an increasing groundball rate that is up to 54% over his last five starts and 23 K’s over his last 27 innings. Rogers’ xERA over that time period is 4.00. However, this one is not about wagering on Esmil Rogers as much as it is about fading the overvalued A’s as road chalk.
The Blue Jays have won three of four and just scored 17 runs in a three-game series in Seattle. It would take Oakland a month to score 17 runs in Seattle. The Blue Jays have several hot hitters in a batting line-up that is vastly superior to the A’s line-up. Oakland has lost six of seven. Over that span they scored more than four runs just one time and have scored three runs or fewer in five of those. Over the past month, the A’s .199 batting average is the worst mark in the majors. Despite a 3.73 ERA over his last five starts, Jarrod Parker has actually seen his skills flounder lately with poor command and a 4.88 xERA over that time frame. Parker’s strikeout rate is declining and another problem has been that batters are squaring up his pitches when they do hit them. They have a .640 SLG % against his four-seam fastball, a .632 SLG% against his sinker, and a .478 SLG% against his slider. Those are some alarming numbers, The Rogers Center in Toronto is an extreme hitter’s park that enhances HR’s by 24% compared to other parks. Jarrod Parker’s groundball/fly-ball profile of 36%/41% is not likely to play well here. Parker is actually laboring worse than Rogers, the A’s are also laboring and Oakland is wrongly billed as the favorite here.
Our Pick
TORONTO +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
N.Y. Jets @ DETROIT
Saskatchewan @ CALGARY
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