8-13-13

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Cleveland Insider

MLB
5* Rays ML (-200) 1000/500
3.5* Pirates/Cardinals under 7.5 (-120) 420/350
2* Phillies/Braves over 8.5 (-115) 230/200
1* Pirates +1.5 (-130) 130/100

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The Philly Godfather

• MLB [1911] 1H NY METS -105 100: -105
• MLB [929] BAL ORIOLES -109 100: -109

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Boston at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto +111 (moneyline) at Bovada

Everything has been going the way of the Boston Red Sox this season, but lately things have changed. Boston is a mediocre 5-5 over their last 10 games, and just 1-3 in their last four. Ryan Dempster was expected to strengthen the rotation, but at 6-8 with a 4.67 ERA, he has been a huge disappointment. His last two outings vs. soft hitting Seattle and Houston does not bode well, as he allowed 12 runs in 12 innings against them. Toronto will go with Todd Redmond, who has pitched admirably at the Roger's Center where his ERA is 2.75, and he has more strikeouts than innings pitched. Boston has struggled opening a series, where they have now dropped six of their last seven. Make the play on Toronto.

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals - ROYALS TO WIN (-133)
Listed Pitchers: Fernandez vs Chen
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.50 units)

Not much changed with Miami since I left for Costa Rica as they've continued to lose - dropping 8 of their last 9 games overall including a 6-2 loss in Kansas City last night. The Marlins are just 44-73 on the season and a terrible 18-41 on the road. The Royals have continued to play well winning 5 of their last 6 games to improve to 62-54 on the season and 33-26 at home. Miami will send their best starting pitcher to the mound in Jose Fernandez who is 8-5 with a 2.58 ERA, .193 OBA and 1.04 WHIP. In his last outing he went 5 innings allowing 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks. He has a 1.39 ERA at home, but on the road he is just 3-5 with a 3.94 ERA. The Royals counter with lefty Bruce Chen who is 5-0 on the season with a 1.79 ERA in 24 appearances. As a starter he is 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA, .147 OBA and 0.63 WHIP over his 5 recent starts. His last time out he went 7.2 innings allowing 5 hits and 0 earned runs. Take note that the Marlins are 29th in the Majors hitting just .225 against lefties. So far in August the Royals are 2nd in the Majors with a .300 team batting average (while the Marlins are 26th at .223). Miami is just 18-50 in their last 68 road games dating back to last year, 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs a left handed starter, and 0-7 in Fernandez' last 7 road starts vs a team with a winning record. The Royals are 19-7 in their last 26 games overall , 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 11-4 in Chen's last 15 home starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. Take the Royals here tonight.

2 UNIT = New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers - DODGERS TO WIN (-122)
Listed Pitchers: Harvey vs Ryu
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.65 units)

The Dodgers won the first of this series last night by a score of 4-2, which was their 6th straight victory. They are 68-50 on the season and 35-25 at home. They are also an incredible 40-12 in their last 52 games overall. The Mets had won 5 of 6 before losing last night, but they are still just 54-62 on the season and 29-30 on the road. New York will send their ace Matt Harvey to the mound who is 9-3 on the season with a 2.09 ERA, .190 OBA and 0.86 WHIP. His numbers aren't AS great on the road (although still very solid) with a 5-1 record and 2.44 ERA. He faced the Dodgers at home when they weren't played as well and he went 6 innings allowing 4 hits and 3 earned runs. Los Angeles will counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu who is 11-3 with a 2.99 ERA, .252 OBA and 1.25 WHIP. At home Ryu is a very stellar 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA, and in 4 starts since the All Star break he is 4-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The Dodgers are hitting a Majors best .302 as a team in August after also leading the Majors with a .289 team BA in July. In comparison the Mets are just 19th in the Majors hitting .244 as a team in August. New York is also 20th in the Majors vs lefties batting .243 as a team. Take note that the Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games as a favorite between -110 to -150, 16-5 in their last 21 home games overall, 7-0 in Ryu's last 7 starts as a favorite, and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings with the Mets. Right now you have to take a look at the Dodgers every night and I think tonight we have some value with Ryu pitching at home at a good price.

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Kelso

15 Baltimore

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Roxxy

Chicago/Los Angeles over

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Sports Cash System

free picks:

Detroit Tigers -184 over the Chicago White Sox (MLB Baseball)

Kansas City Royals -138 over the Miami Marlins (MLB Baseball)

New York Mets / Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 6 (Total Runs Scored in Game) (MLB Baseball)

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TKWins

Sport League Competitor Selection Odds Units Game Date / GameTime
VIP FULL ACCESS MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL Sfo Giants Bumgarner -l V/s WAS NATIONALS G GONZALEZ-L Under Total u6½EV 4 13 Aug 2013 / 7:05 pm

VIP FULL ACCESS MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL Mia Marlins J Fernandz-r V/s KC ROYALS B CHEN -L Under Total u6½+105 3 13 Aug 2013 / 8:10 pm

VIP FULL ACCESS MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL Ny Mets M Harvey -r V/s LA DODGERS H RYU -L Under Total u6-115 5 13 Aug 2013 / 10:10 pm

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CHRIS JORDAN

600 Rockies

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Mitch Wilson

Dog of the day: Pirates

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Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 13, 2013






Houston @ OAKLAND
Houston +249 over OAKLAND

There’s an old term used in boxing called a throwaway bet and it refers to a perceived mismatch in the ring in which the dog is taking back a huge price and public gives the underdog no shot to pull the upset. This has that ring to it but those that know this game well know that this is not throwing away money. No, this is a huge, huge overlay that must be played. If Bartolo Colon and the A’s win like expected, so be it but the Astros have at least a 40% chance of winning this game and maybe even a much higher chance than that. The Astros have lost Jordan Lyles last eight starts but over that span Lyles faced the Cubbies in Chicago with the winds blowing out, the L.A. Angels, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle (in the midst of the M’s 9-game winning streak), Toronto, Baltimore and Boston. That’s a difficult stretch of games and now Lyles takes a huge step down in class when facing the feeble offense of the A’s. And it’s not like this kid can’t pitch. Prior to facing that group of offensive powers, Lyles posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in June, along with an elite 55% groundball rate. His fastball velocity by year continues to be on an uptick: 89.8, 91.8, 92.2 mph. Lyles has legit command and his 3.91 xERA is supported by his skills. At age 22, he remains on a nice growth curve.
Colon is enjoying an excellent season results-wise but his skills do not back up the results. In three starts against the Astros this season, Colon has been solid twice on paper and poor once, yet all of those starts came before July 1. Since then, his skills have really declined. In his last seven starts, Colon has a 4.94 xERA with few strikeouts and more walks than we’re used to seeing out of him. Colon is a pitcher to steer clear of going forward, as his 14-4 record and sub 3.00 ERA has greatly inflated his price tag. Pitchers like Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey, and Clayton Kershaw deserve to be in the price range against the Astros but Bartolo Colon does not. In fact, Colon is a nothing pitcher that has survived on pure luck in much the same way Barry Zito did for about a 1½-seasons for the Giants (Zito is now mopping up in the pen). Huge overlay.


Our Pick
Houston +249 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.98)





Milwaukee @ TEXAS
Milwaukee/TEXAS over 9 +105

The Brewers come in here swinging some pretty hot bats right now. They just completed three games in Seattle where they scored 10 times in two of those games and faced King Felix in the other. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in four of its past eight games in Washington, San Fran and Seattle and those are difficult hitting parks. The Brew Crew now get to face a struggling pitcher in an extreme hitters park. Alexi Ogando has made four starts since coming off the DL on July 23. In those starts covering just 19 frames, Ogando has walked nine batters while striking out just eight. He also has an alarming 33%/49% groundball/fly-ball split, not to mention a 1.55 WHIP over that stretch. The Brewers are almost a sure bet to score at least three times and probably more and the Rangers are likely to take care of the rest.
Marco Estrada just came off the DL to face the Giants in San Fran and while he pitched well, he was on a short leash and was pulled after just 76 pitches. Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 20%/60%, which is the highest fly-ball rate in the majors among starters that have thrown at least 50 innings this season. That does not bode well at this park. As a result of that extreme fly-ball profile, Estrada has allowed 14 jacks in 74 innings. Estrada made 12 pre-injury starts, with a 37%/25% quality start/disaster start split, which further highlights his implosion tendencies. Estrada comes in with a .264 BAA and a 4.96 ERA with just six quality starts in 13 attempts. He’s been whacked by just about every strong hitting team he’s faced this season and his chances for success here are slim at best. This one has slugfest written all over it.

Our Pick
Milwaukee/TEXAS over 9 +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)





Baltimore @ ARIZONA
Baltimore/ARIZONA over 9 +109

These two combined for 19 hits and 13 runs last night and they combined to score in 10 of the 18 half innings. They figure to do even better here. One of the stalwarts on the surprising 2012 Orioles was Miguel Gonzalez who went 9-4 in their second-half playoff drive. After missing 2008 and 2009 with arm issues, Gonzalez worked his way up the minor league ladder in the Boston system before coming over to Baltimore. His second half this season is not going as well. Gonzalez has posted a disturbing 1.71 WHIP over his last four starts and has been tagged for seven runs over 9.2 innings in his last two starts against the Astros and Padres. Houston knocked him out in the fourth inning after tagging him for nine hits in 3.2 frames. Gonzalez is suffering from a serious skills decline. His groundball rate has decreased to a measly 30% over his last six starts and his fly-ball rate has increased to 41%. That leaves a 29% line-drive rate and no pitcher in the league can survive with a line-drive rate that high. Chase Field is a haven for line-drives and that spells big trouble for Miguel Gonzalez.
Randall Delgado is in just as much trouble as Gonzalez. Delgado has a line-drive rate of 30% over his last four starts. He has been taken yard three times in his last two starts and in the last three games that he started the final scores were 9-8, 7-6 and 10-0 with the D-Backs winning all three. Delgado has greatly benefitted from some serious run support. Delgado has walked just 12 batters in 65 innings this season but that’s uncharacteristic because he could not throw strikes consistently at the minor league level and has walked 68 batters in his 192 major league innings. It’s only a matter of time before that ugly trait shows up again. Delgado is not durable, he gets rattled easily, he has a .290 BAA and allows an equal amount of fly-balls as he does groundouts (35%/35% GB/FB). Two pitchers that are both implosions waiting to happen go at it here and it’s going to be very difficult to keep this one under the posted total.

Our Pick
Baltimore/ARIZONA over 9 +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

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Dr. Ed Meyer MLB Money Line Tue, 08/13/13 - 7:10 PM

double-dime bet - 903 PHI (+225) vs 904 ATL

MTi's FORECAST: Philadelphia 3 ATLANTA 2

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Bob Balfe

KANSAS CITY ROYALS -140
(Chen/Fernandez)

The Marlins are a very bad baseball team. We all know this. This team can only win games in which they hold their opponents to a run or two. Its just so hard to bank on that every single night if you back them. The Royals are the hottest team in baseball playing the worst team. If they lose tonight then so be it. We are playing the odds. That is what this business is all about. Take the Royals.

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The Winners Circle

TUESDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play Tampa Bay -200 over Seattle MLB TOP PLAY

Tampa Bay has won 39 of the last 55 games when playing as a favorite
of -175 to -250 and they have also won 37 of the last 64 games when
playing in the month of August. Tampa Bay has won 50 of the last 89
games vs. AL West Division Opponents and they have won 23 of the last
32 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games.


5* Play Texas -190 over Milwaukee MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Atlanta -200 over Philadelphia MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Detroit -180 over Chicago White Sox MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Oakland -250 over Houston MLB TOP PLAY

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Dave Essler | MLB RunLine Tue, 08/13/13 - 7:10 PM
double-dime bet 917 SEA 1.5 (-120) SportsInteraction vs 918 TAM


Dave Essler | MLB Total Tue, 08/13/13 - 7:05 PM
triple-dime bet 913 ANA / 914 NYY Over 8.5 5dimes