8-14-13

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MLB Top 3: Hot 'under' pitchers on the mound Wednesday

Looking play some totals? Wednesday's Major League Baseball action features a trio of pitchers that have trended toward scorelines finishing under the total.

Here is a look at three pitchers to consider if you're looking to play totals.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (7-5, 2.87 ERA)

The 'under' is 9-1 in Weaver's previous 10 trips to the mound and 13-3 on the season overall. The righty had a stellar July as he posted an ERA of 1.32 and his August isn't so bad either. He's 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA for the month.

The Angels continue a four-game series with the Yankees Wednesday.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (6-11, 4.18)

It hasn't been the best season for the former two-time Cy Young award winner, but he's put in performances that harken back to better days recently. Over his last three starts, in which the 'under' is 3-0, the righty has an ERA of 1.23. Perhaps he's turning his season around.

The Giants are in Washington to face the Nationals Wednesday.

Dillon Gee New York Mets (8-8, 3.82 ERA)

The Mets righty has been putting in some fine performances if you haven't noticed. The under is 5-0 in his previous five start and Gee owns an ERA of 1.53 over that stretch. Over those five games, Gee has allowed zero earned runs twice and one earned run twice.

The Mets finish up their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday.

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Dave Essler MLB Wednesday/Thursday Thoughts

Reds-Cubs: Rusin's only home start was against the at-the-time red hot Dodgers, and he gave up a few. I love the fac that he doesn't walk many, but I hate the fact that he's not a groundball pitcher and we're in a bandbox. Arroyo, aka Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, has been good against bad teams lately and bad against good teams lately. Yes, the Cubs are a bad team. The Reds used to own LHP, but not so much this season, and in 38 games against lefties only 14 have gone over. I suppose the trend would be under, again, and if that's the case and the Cubs are big enough dogs, the Cubs ML might be viable here. The Reds have been winning, but against bad teams.

San Diego-Colorado: Really wanted to take Stults on Tuesday, and still might, but I just have these visions of how really poorly the Padres played in the field in that 14-2 loss. It was terrible. But, in day game with perhaps starters resting, and the Padres against a lefty, there's an immediate need to back Cashner here. De La Rosa beat the Padres in San Diego about a month ago, so perhaps they get him back. My only concern, again, is no Quentin and no Maybin, so probably under here, too.

San Francisco-Washington: After Timmy's one-hitter against the Brewers, the tendency is for people to want to back him again, also given that Zimmerman has had his mis-steps. But, Lincecum on the road has been a different animal, and the Giants pen on the road is also a different animal. Since the break Zimmerman has been terrible, except the one game against the same Brewers that made Timmy look good. With that in mind I lean over here and don't expect a pitchers' duel. But, there's supposed to be a reasonable cross-wind. We'll see.

Phillies-Atlanta: It's just real tough to even think about backing Lannan right now after he was crushed by Washington, and the game before only lasted four innings against these Braves. However, that could motivate him to at least keep the Phillies in the game. The Phillies hit Beachy pretty hard in his second start back last week as well, and I just can't put too much stock in that shutout of the Fish. Slight lean to the over here, and perhaps the Phillies RL if they don't trash their bullpen on Tuesday, and especially if somehow Atlanta does.

Pittsburgh-St. Louis: Welp, because Liriano got shelled by the Rockies, he may be pretty affordable here against a Cardinals team that is now 12-18 against left handed starters. Miller is certainly not someone I'd want to unload on after he had to leave the last game in the first inning. Cardinals pen cannot be trusted, but the Pirates w/o Grilli are simply struggling back there, too. Liriano beat the Cardinal badly about a month ago, and what surprised me is that that was the first time most Cardinals had seen him. With that in mind, I lean over here, and probably, well, I dunno. The Pirates.

Mets-Dodgers: We do typically like to back the Mets against LHP more so than not, and Gee has had two good starts against two decent teams, albeit at home. On the road, he has been simply terrible. Then again, any Dodgers that HAVE seen him are out. Capuano either gives up five runs or no runs, but what really concerns me is that he doesn't ever seem to pitch late into the game. Since both bullpens have been excellent and this IS a big park, it's probably a low scoring game, which would also give some value to the Mets RL.

Cleveland-Minnesota: I will be glad when this series is over, simply because these have been two of the toughest teams for me to read this season. Carrasco's second stint in the Bigs this year started well, as he one-hit the Angels, but I want to attribute that to the fact that the Angels weren't hitting anything then more than him being better. Gibson threw a ton of pitches in only five innings last time out, but the Twins do have the better bullpen. This could be a higher scoring game, but then again get-away games tend not to be, so by default I lean to the Twins, because we like the Indians better against lefties.

Tigers-White Sox: IMO Porcello is the most likely Tigers pitcher to get shelled at any given time, and he shutout Chicago last time he faced them, and beat them the game before that. However, most all of his starts lately have come against light hitting teams. Not that the White Sox are a heavy hitting team, but the CAN hit at TIMES, just like Danks CAN pitch at times. His season-long WHIP of 1.17 can't be ignored here, IMO, but, the Tigers collectively have hit him more than hard enough for me to not be able to take the White Sox here. Day game w/people probably resting, but because the Tigers still need all the wins they can get, I'd have to take them.

Angels-Yankees: I suppose the tendency here would be to take the under and the Yankees, especially after Nova's three straight freak-show starts, one against the Tigers. Weaver had his moments in the sun about a month ago, so at only -115, if the Yankees get their pen straightened out on Tuesday, that may be a cheap price on the home team.

Boston-Toronto: Well, without even looking I do know that Toronto has simply been miserable against lefties this season, and we know about Johnson. However, he has had an extra couple of days rest, and if I were the Blue Jays those rest days would have been spent with a shrink, not simulated games. Lester has been much better away from Fenway and has almost always owned Toronto. Since both Victorino and Drew tore up Johnson when he was in the NL with the Fish, I really can't make a case for the home dog here, unless something remarkable happens in the next 26 hours.

Seattle-Tampa Bay: Some might gladly lay the -270 here and I do think it's that high for a reason. For one, the Mariners suck against lefties, and two, even though we like Tampa Bay better against lefties, this is Aaron Harang who has regressed well beyond the mean, not to mention he sucks on the road. I can see some scenarios where this game goes over, but in most of them the Rays get most of the runs. If Price is even close to sharp, there's no reason they shouldn't win. Might use them in a parlay, but even at that price the books are making it not really all that worthwhile.

Houston-Oakland: I actually like Cosart quite a bit, but, he already pitched against the A's which is a downside here. However, as a groundball pitcher, and now in a huge park, I simply can't see him getting lit up. Parker might be showing some signs of late-season fatigue, and after all he is only 24. If there's nothing out of the ordinary in Tueday's Colon -300 game, I can make a clear case for the Houston RL and the under.

Miami-Kansas City: This one should scare the Royals a bit. Santana a flyball pitcher in a day game where the ball carries better against a free-swinging team that has SOME power. Boston just lit him up so perhaps this is the start of what I thought might happen to Ervin in the summer in Kauffman. It looks from the numbers that the 22 year old Turner might also starting to wear down a bit, and I'd love to find a way to take Miami here. Their pen is an obvious issue, adn KC does fare much better against RHP's, but, the value clearly does not lie with the Royals at -200. Fish RL in a day game, which tend to be lower scoring, perhaps.

Baltimore-Arizona: Tillmans' got a season-long WHIP of 1.29, which is below his career numbers, and he's also thrown six straight 100+ pitch games, most of them actually 110+ pitches. Tough for me to get behind that with the blown lead on Monday night, Tuesday pending. Since the Orioles are under .50 against left handed starters, and Corbin has only really been torched once (although he's yet another youngster that's pitched a lot) there is little doubt that at -130 at home that's probably the only play I could make.

Milwaukee-Texas: Well, I am not laying -200 or more, so that's off the table for me and most of my clients know that. However, case in point is that the Brewers know all about Garza from those years as a division rival with the Cubs. Simply with that knowledge alone, regardless of what Thornburg is or isn't, I could only take Milwaukee here, at least the RL. I might even make the case the Brewers can win this game, because the only team that's hit Thornburg was the Padres, and that was when they'd just seen him the week before.

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The Factsman

MLB Wednesday Video Pick

OVER 7 -120 - Pittsburgh vs St. Louis Cards
(F. Liriano -L vs S. Miller -R)

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MLB Report

August 14

Hot pitchers
-- Arroyo is 2-1, 1.69 in his last three road starts. Rusin is 1-1, 2.00 in his last three starts overall.
-- de la Rosa is 2-1, 1.17 in his last four home starts. Cashner is 3-1, 4.88 in his last four starts overall.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 1.23 in his last three starts.
-- Beachy is 1-0, 2.51 in his last two starts.
-- Gee is 2-1, 1.78 in his last five starts. Capuano is 1-0, 3.12 in his last three home starts.

-- Santana is 3-0, 3.38 in his last five starts.
-- Thornburg allowed one run in 12 IP in his first two '13 starts. Garza is 2-1, 3.68 in four starts for the Rangers.
-- Orioles won last five Tillman starts (4-0, 3.15). Corbin is 3-2, 2.21 in his last six starts.

-- Weaver is 4-0, 1.49 in his last five starts. Nova is 3-2, 1.60 in his last six.
-- Price is 2-0, 1.11 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 4-0, 2.33 in his last six starts.
-- Cosart is 1-0, 1.64 in five starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-3, 5.76 in his last five starts.
-- Lannan is 1-2, 8.41 in his last four starts.
-- Liriano allowed ten runs in 2.1 IP in last start at Denver, after going 3-0 in his previous three starts, with a 0.42 RA. Miller is 1-1, 5.06 in his last three.

-- Turner is 0-3, 4.45 in his last five starts.

-- Rogers is 0-3, 16.05 in his last three starts. Lester is 1-3, 3.91 in his last four road starts.
-- Harang is 0-2, 11.25 in his last three starts.
-- Danks is 0-4, 4.86 in his last seven starts.
-- Gibson is 0-1, 7.90 in his last three starts. Carrasco is 0-4, 9.42 in six starts, last of which was July 6.
-- Parker has a 5.82 RA in his last three starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- Arroyo 4-23; Rusin 1-5
-- Cashner 7-19; de la Rosa 4-24 (0 of last 6)
-- Lincecum 9-23 (1 of last 6); Zimmerman 4-23
-- Lannan 4-13 (1 of last 8); Beachy 2-3
-- Liriano 4-17; Miller 5-21
-- Gee 4-23 (0 of last 8); Capuano 2-14 (0 of last 5)

-- Turner 3-13; Santana 10-24
-- Tillman 4-23 (1 of last 12); Corbin 5-23
-- Thornburg 0-2; Garza 1-16

-- Carrasco 2-6; Gibson 2-8
-- Porcello 4-21 (1 of last 10); Danks 6-15
-- Weaver 3-16 (0 of last 5); Nova 4-11
-- Lester 8-24; Rogers 5-13 (3 of last 3)
-- Harang 8-19 (4 of last 7); Price 5-17 (0 of last 4)
-- Cosart 2-5; Parker 8-23

Totals
-- Under is 8-2-1 in San Francisco's last eleven games.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Cincinnati road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Pittsburgh games.
-- Four of last five Colorado games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen Dodger games.

-- Last three Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Miami games.
-- Four of last six Arizona games went over the total.

-- Nine of last twelve Angel games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Toronto games.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Five of last seven Houston games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Washington won its last four games, scoring 27 runs.
-- Braves won 16 of their last 18 games.
-- Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.
-- Colorado won six of its last eight home games.
-- Dodgers are 39-8 in their last 47 games.

-- Rangers won 13 of their last 15 games. Milwaukee won five of their last seven.
-- Kansas City won 17 of its last 21 games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of their last seven games.

-- Bronx Bombers won four of their last five games.
-- Mariners won last three road games, scoring 16 runs.
-- Minnesota won eight of its last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Giants lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Phillies lost 18 of their last 22 games.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last eleven home games.
-- Pirates lost their last four games, scoring ten runs. St Louis lost four of its last six games.
-- Padres lost six of their last nine games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last twelve road games.

-- Marlins lost eight of their last ten games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.

-- Toronto lost five of its last six games. Red Sox lost three of their last five.
-- Angels lost 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Rays lost last six games, outscored 40-22.
-- White Sox lost 13 of their last 19 games. Detroit lost four of their last five.
-- Indians lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Oakland is 3-5 in last eight games. Astros lost 24 of their last 30 games.

Umpires
-- Cin-ChC-- Six of last nine Culbreth games went over the total.
-- SD-Col-- Last three Bucknor games stayed under the total.
-- SF-Wsh-- Last eight Estabrook games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-Atl-- Nine of last eleven Darling games stayed under total.
-- Pitt-StL-- Last four Wendelstedt games went over the total.
-- NYM-LAD-- Last five Cooper games stayed under the total.

-- Mia-KC-- Nine of last twelve LBarrett games stayed under the total.
-- Blt-Az-- Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven Barry games.
-- Mil-Tex-- Six of last nine Davidson games stayed under the total.

-- Cle-Min-- Five of last seven Fletcher games stayed under the total.
-- Det-ChW-- Favorites won five of last seven Reyburn games.
-- LAA-NYY-- Six of last eight Vanover games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Cuzzi games.
-- Sea-TB-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bell games.
-- Hst-A's-- 11 of last 13 Hernandez games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

The Pirates look to bounce back from last night's 4-3 loss and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-6 in its last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.185; Cubs (Rusin) 14.842 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); N/A

Game 953-954: San Diego at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 14.314; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.784 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Under

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.856; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.939 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 14.005; Atlanta (Beachy) 16.200 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-230); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-230); Over

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.173; St. Louis (Miller) 14.082 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under

Game 961-962: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.714; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 17.421 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Over

Game 963-964: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carrasco) 15.997; Minnesota (Gibson) 15.103 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over

Game 965-966: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.591; White Sox (Danks) 16.477 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Under

Game 967-968: LA Angels at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.459; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.575 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Under

Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.977; Toronto (Rogers) 15.326 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Harang) 13.835; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.302 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-270); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-270); Under

Game 973-974: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 15.710; Oakland (Parker) 14.877 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-240); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+200); Over

Game 975-976: Miami at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.294; Kansas City (Santana) 16.240 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-200); Under

Game 977-978: Baltimore at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.963; Arizona (Corbin) 13.892 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over

Game 979-980: Milwaukee at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Thornburg) 15.038; Texas (Garza) 16.529 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-230); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees Tuesday.

Wednesday it's the Royals.The deficit 1325 sirignanos.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1077-811 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED: Rockies -155

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Brewers +1.5 +105

TBay -1.5 -135

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Connecticut

The Dream look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is coming off a 74-63 loss to Washington and is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games following a SU defeat. Atlanta is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Atlanta at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.461; Connecticut 105.654 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 145 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 150 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Indiana at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.438; Phoenix 111.495 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 145 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates +118 over St. Louis Cards
(System Record: 65-7, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 65-66-1

Soccer Crusher
Criciuma + Nautico UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 440-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 440-377-59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA ATLANTA at CONNECTICUT

Play On - Favorites (ATLANTA) cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread
44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% 25.3 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% 4.7 units )

WNBA INDIANA at PHOENIX

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) in a game involving two average defensive teams (40.5-43.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games
228-81 since 1997. ( 73.8% 0.0 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% 0.0 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at CONNECTICUT

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 1.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB MILWAUKEE at TEXAS

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MILWAUKEE) after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games
77-16 since 1997. ( 82.8% 42.2 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% -3.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at ARIZONA

BALTIMORE is 68-45 (+35.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.9)

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Wagerline Investments

MLB

10* Colorado Rockies -145

10* Arizona Diamondbacks -125

10* Los Angeles Angels +105

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River City Sharps

2 UNITS Kansas City Royals -1.5 +105 ( 2:10 PM)