8-16-13

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369837

    #61
    Sportswagers CFL

    Today's Free Picks for Aug 16, 2013





    Hamilton @ WINNIPEG
    WINNIPEG +4 -110 over Hamilton


    Buy-low, sell high is a philosophy we use often and it certainly applies here. The Tigercats are coming off a win two weeks ago in Edmonton (they had a bye last week). They probably should’ve defeated the Argos in the season opener and had that come to pass, they would be 3-3. Hamilton also tops the league in passing with 1,842 yards. They’re coming on and it’s also worth noting that they get Andy Fantuz back this week, perhaps the best receiver in the game. Hamilton coach, Kent Austin is widely regarded as one of the best because he’s won wherever he’s been in the past. However, Austin had the talent to succeed in the past and we’re here to tell you that he’s an idiot. With a 30-29 lead in Edmonton and with 32 seconds left in the game, Hamilton had a second down and 10 at their own 50-yard line. Instead of running the ball and running the clock (Edmonton had no timeouts left), Austin goes to the air and the pass is incomplete. Clock stops and the Ti-Cats punt. As it turns out Edmonton marches down field and they miss a 48-yard FG with one second remaining. Austin got lucky that they missed because he deserved to lose that game with the most idiotic 2nd and 10 call of the year. He runs the ball and the game is over. It’s not rocket science. That’s just one example of Austin's incompetence but there have been several others. Hamilton has just one more win that than the Blue Bombers. Its two wins have come against Edmonton and Winnipeg, the latter at home by five points. The ‘Cats own the league’s worst defense. They’ve allowed a league high 31.2 points per game and a league high 135.2 rushing yards against per game. With an idiot coach and a defense that can’t stop the marching band, spotting points on the road cannot be recommended. The Blue Bombers stock has hit bottom. Their one victory this season came against the reeling Alouettes. As a result of losing so many games, Winnipeg made several changes heading into this one. President and chief executive officer Garth Buchko and general manager Joe Mack were fired last Friday, followed by a switch at starting quarterback, the signing of a new kicker and the hiring of an offensive consultant. Out on the field, head coach Tim Burke went with his offensive staff's decision to use their third starting quarterback this season, handing the reins to CFL rookie Max Hall for this game in place of Justin Goltz. However, Goltz drops to No. 3 on the depth chart and veteran ex-starter Buck Pierce is Hall's backup. Hall got into six games for the Arizona Cardinals of the NFL back in 2010 and started three, winning only his first start, 30-20 over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. He was later injured and only played in some pre-season games the following season. Last year, he was a grad assistant and helped out his alma mater Brigham Young's football team. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a guy making his first CFL start but the reports are that he’s been sharp and one can never ignore a QB that made the NFL. Additionally, Winnipeg has perhaps the best defensive line in the game. They sacked Henry Burris seven times in the last meeting and they’re likely to apply as much pressure here. Winnipeg's defense leads the CFL in sacks with 24 and it’s not like they don’t have offensive talent. These Blue Bombers are a good QB game away from being seriously dangerous. Winnipeg's defense is out on the field far too long because of so many two-and outs that the numbers against that overused defense are skewed. Winnipeg has had two weeks to prepare and every player on that team comes into this one with a positive and new-found attitude after the changes. The reports are that the practices have been intense and tonight’s intensity level will be sky-high. Winnipeg has yet to win at its new home field but these players are determined to give their passionate fan base something to cheer about. Don’t be surprised if it occurs here against this very beatable guest.

    Our Pick
    WINNIPEG +4 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369837

      #62
      Sportswagers MLB
      Today's Free Picks for Aug 16, 2013





      Cleveland @ OAKLAND
      Cleveland +117 over OAKLAND


      The Athletics have one series win over their past five series and that came in Toronto against the worst starting pitching staff, statistically, in the league. The A’s just dropped two of three to the Astros and slowly but surely they are being exposed as a very ordinary baseball team. Ordinary baseball teams aren’t usually 16 games above .500 and in first place in mid-August so there are very likely more losses than wins forthcoming for the A’s for the remainder of the year. Not only does Oakland have one of the weakest hitting lineups in the entire league but they’re starting pitching isn’t as good as advertised either. A.J. Griffin is among them. Griffin had a mediocre 4.86 ERA in July, where he was hurt by a 2.7 HR/9. That’s no shock because Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 27%/54%. Griffin pitched just 82 innings last season. He’s almost doubled that this year already and in his last start he walked six batters while striking out two. He could be suffering from fatigue and whether that’s the case or not, he and the A’s are in no way superior to Justin Masterson and the Indians. After a rough stretch against the Angels and Tigers, the Indians are back on track with three wins in four games. They scored 20 runs in those three wins and they’ve scored six runs or more in three of Masterson’s last four starts. Masterson has experienced a big strikeout rate surge from 2012 to 2013 (6.9 to 9.1 per nine IP), which is the highest increase among AL starters. Masterson’s aggregate skills are firmly among the AL's best with an elite 64% groundball rate and a 3.19 xERA. Win or lose, this is a must play because we get the better pitcher, the better offense and the team in better form too. Oh, yeah, we also get a tag.

      Our Pick
      Cleveland +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)




      Chicago @ MINNESOTA
      Chicago +113 over MINNESOTA


      When Kevin Correia is favored, you can pencil us in on the dog almost every time and we certainly make no exception here. It's as if someone unplugged Correia's good luck machine on May 1st. In five April starts, he had a 2.23 ERA on a 27% hit rate, 81% strand rate, and 5% HR/F. Since then, on a month-to-month basis, he's had a hit rate no less than 32%, strand rates twice in the 60s, and 2 months of over 20% HR/F’s. Overall the Twins have lost seven of Correia’s last nine starts and over that span Correia has a brutal 1.68 WHIP. Pitching for the Twins, Kevin Correia has to be considered one of the riskiest and least appealing favorites in the entire league. The White Sox have split their last 10 games and they just took two out of three against the Tigers before losing the opener of this series last night, 5-4. While trade rumors were swirling on the south side of Chicago, a young, unheralded starter has quietly put up solid numbers. While not matching the star power of Chris Sale or Jake Peavy (before the trade), Jose Quintana has become a mainstay in the White Sox rotation. The 24-year old Quintana has stepped up this year. His K rate has gone up. Combine that with his fine control and his command is strongly heading to an elite level. Quintana is dominating righties. While he gave up a .284/.349/.426 line against them last year, he’s limiting them to .232/.288/.370 this year. His improved dominance is seen in his 52%/14% quality start/disaster start in 21 starts. He was at 32/32 in 2012. xERA shows that Quintana’s skills come with full support and his chances of winning this one are greater than Correia’s chances.
      Our Pick
      Chicago +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)







      Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
      MILWAUKEE +119 over Cincinnati



      The Brewers ran into a lefty that was dealing it last night but the same fate does not await them here. Mike Leake has put up some sick surface stats on the road (7-1 - 1.94 ERA) but the skills do not support that, meaning some serious regression in his road stats are forthcoming. Leake has just 97 K’s in 148 frames. Aside from a low strikeout rate, we’re also seeing other warning signs in his recent form. Since the beginning of July, Leake has a 38%/25%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio. Leake posted a 48% groundball rate in April, May and June and that 10% increase strongly suggests he’s having difficulty keeping the ball down, a sure sign of fatigue. Another sign of fatigue is an increase in walks and that’s precisely what Leake is suffering through right now. He’s walked almost as many as he’s struck out over his past four games and over that span he has posted an alarming 1.53 WHIP. When Leake struggled in 2012 his line-drive rate was 25% and that’s exactly where he’s been at over his past eight starts. Leake could be in trouble against this very good hitting line-up of the Brewers. The Reds scored two runs last night. Over their past 20 games, Cinci has the worst team batting average in baseball (.211). That’s lower than the Astros, White Sox, Marlins, Cubs and Giants. The Reds will now face an under the radar pitcher that they have not had much success against. Tom Gorzelanny tossed a gem Saturday night, striking out seven batters and holding the Mariners scoreless over seven innings. Recently shifted from the bullpen to the rotation, Gorzelanny has 33 K/7 BB in his six starts, spanning 35 IP. Over 71.2 innings overall, Gorzelanny has allowed just 51 hits. He is having his best overall season, with career-best 2.51 ERA, a career-best 3.45 xERA and an outstanding 48%/16% groundball/line-drive rate. It may also surprise you to learn that the Brewers have hit more jacks than the Reds and that over their past 10 games, the Brew Crew have gone deep 11 times. Milwaukee runs into trouble when they’re facing a strikeout pitcher but that is not the case here. Definite overlay.

      Our Pick
      MILWAUKEE +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)








      Toronto @ TAMPA BAY
      Toronto +135 over TAMPA BAY


      R.A. Dickey has been awful at home this season because he can’t keep the ball in the park. However, on the road, Dickey has been as good as he was last year in his Cy Young award winning year. On the road this season, Dickey is just 5-5 but has a skills supported 3.08 ERA. The Blue Jays have won five of Dickey’s last six road starts. Over his last five starts, Dickey has struck out 30 batters in 33 innings with an elite line-drive rate of 14%. His knuckleball has also increased in velocity over that span and that could explain the much better results. More than all of that, however, is that the Rays simply can’t hit the knuckleball. Current Rays have 153 AB’s versus R.A. Dickey and they have an embarrassing 24 hits combined for a BA of .157. Dickey has already defeated the Rays twice this season and that includes a two-hit, complete game shutout at the Trop back on June 26. Over his last five starts covering just 23 frames, Jeremy Hellickson has walked 10 batters and struck out just 12. Over that same five-game span Helllickson has posted a 1.65/6.26 WHIP/ERA split. Hellickson has not made it out of the fifth inning in three straight starts and now one has to wonder about his health. Hellickson has struggled pitching with runners on base, as shown by his 59% strand rate the first time through lineups and his 35% strand rate the third time through lineups. Not only is Hellickson throwing like a pitcher with some undetected health issues, he’s also pitching with his confidence lower than it’s been in a long time. That has us confidently stepping in on this live pup.

      Our Pick
      Toronto +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369837

        #63
        Sportswagers Boxing

        Today's Free Picks for Aug 16, 2013





        Fonfara vs. Campillo
        Andrzej Fonfara +195 over Gabriel Campillo


        9 pm EST on ESPN2


        Andrej Fonfara has been on a good roll since getting stopped in two rounds by gatekeeper Derrick Findley in 2008. At that time, Fonfara was a string-bean middleweight at 6’2 but at 25 years old, he has filled out to a rugged 175. Fontara’s best win was a clear 10 round decision over faded former champ Glen Johnson. It was a good win as some thought Johnson might have had something left. Fonfara has gotten stronger over the years and is a good puncher, especially with the right hand. Gabriel Campillo is a classy southpaw with world class skills that has had some back luck. He has five losses but only two of them were legit. He was robbed against Tavoris Cloud, Beibit Shumanov and Karo Murat. He succumbed easily against the iron fists of Sergey Kovalev, who is one of the premier punchers in the game. Campillo could give Fonfara fits. Fonfara has improved but is fairly stationary and not overly speedy. Limited Tommy Karpency was troubling Fonfara before getting stopped in the 7th. Besides the Johnson win, Fonfara has feasted on modest opposition. Of course, Campillo isn’t the most durable guy in the world. He can be hurt and shaken but it appeared he wasn’t ready for Kovalev and the reports are that he’s been in serious training for this fight. Fonfara will not wreak the same type of havoc on Campillo as Kovalev did. Campillo has the better skills and is the faster guy. Fonfara is likely the better puncher and probably more durable and Fonfara has the luxury of boxing in his adopted hometown of Chicago. But Campillo has faced much tougher opposition and there is nothing Fonfara can show him that he hasn’t seen. Yes, Campillo could get robbed or even stopped. However, Campillo is very slick and is a talented fighter. If he is properly prepared, he can outbox Fonfara and outmaneuver him for the win. Nice overlay here.

        Our Pick
        Andrzej Fonfara +195 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.90)
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369837

          #64
          Hondo Friday

          Hondo ran in place yesterday as his victory with the Cards was negated by the Royals’ failure and left him with 595 brownings owed to assorted creditors.

          Tonight, Mr. Aitch will take Leake to hose down the Brewers — 20 units on the Reds.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369837

            #65
            Chance Lockwood Plays and Daily Chance Friday

            Premium Plays:

            Oakland Athletics -128 vs. Cleveland Indians

            Cincinnati Reds -130 vs. Milwaukee Brewers


            Daily Chance Plays:

            St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (4:05 pm):St Louis Cardinals -124

            Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 pm): Pittsburgh Pirates -147

            LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 pm): LA Dodgers -105

            Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles (7:05 pm): Baltimore Orioles -169

            Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (7:08 pm): Kansas City Royals -109

            San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (7:10 pm): Miami Marlins +109

            NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox (7:10 pm): New York Yankees +172

            Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 pm): Tampa Bay Rays -145

            Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (7:30 pm): Atlanta Braves -179

            Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (8:05 pm): Texas Rangers -174

            Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 pm): Cincinnati Reds -130

            Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (8:10 pm): Minnesota Twins -121

            Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's (10:05 pm): Oakland Athletics -128

            Houston Astros at LA Angels (10:05 pm): LA Angels -155

            NY Mets at San Diego Padres (10:10 pm): NY Mets +127


            Yesterdays Results:

            Premium Selections: 1-1 +.33

            Daily Chance Card: 4-4 -1.19


            Overall Records:

            Premium Selections: 13-17 -6.60

            Daily Chance Card: 148-107 +20.42
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369837

              #66
              TMC Sports Advisors

              Cincinnati -130

              Dodgers -115

              Baltimore -1.5 +105

              Atlantla -170

              Yesterday 4-1



              NFL PRESEASON (3-3)

              Bills -3.5

              Kansas City -3

              Raiders/Saints Over 42
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369837

                #67
                Norm Hitzges NFL

                Minnesota
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369837

                  #68
                  Hoopsgooroo

                  955 Dodgers -133
                  957 Giants -118
                  969 Yanks + 170
                  971 Jays +134
                  973 Mariners +158
                  961 Reds -135
                  977 Indians +117
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369837

                    #69
                    Bookieshunter

                    27-8 L11 days
                    4-1 YTD

                    2* Dodgers

                    1* Diamondbacks
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369837

                      #70
                      GoodFella

                      Friday Night Free MLB Team Total

                      TEXAS RANGERS OVER 4 RUNS
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369837

                        #71
                        RICH SPORTS

                        3* 414 Nor - UNDER 43
                        4* 416 KC - ML
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369837

                          #72
                          Greg Shaker NFL Total Fri, 08/16/13 - 8:00 PM

                          dime bet - 414 NOS / 413 OAK - OVER 42.0
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369837

                            #73
                            Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

                            Arizona Diamondbacks
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369837

                              #74
                              DHayes

                              1* Patriots -2.5
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369837

                                #75
                                River City Sharps

                                3 UNITS Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +125
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