8-18-13

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The Sports Capper

SUNDAY BASEBALL

100* Play Detroit -185 over Kansas City (TOP MLB PLAY)
Max Scherzer has won 15 of the last 18 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 10 of the last 11 games vs. division opponents. Max Scherzer has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching as a favorite of -175 to -200 and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.74.

100* Play LA Angels -145 over Houston (TOP MLB PLAY)
Houston has lost 44 of the last 61 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and the have also lost 34 of the last 43 games when playing in the month of August. Houston has lost 17 of the last 20 games when playing on a Sunday and they have lost 28 of the last 36 day games.

50* Play San Francisco -150 over Miami (BONUS MLB PLAY)

50* Play St. Louis -150 over Chicago Cubs (BONUS MLB PLAY)

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Teddy Covers

10* Orioles over

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SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO -8 over Edmonton

How can this one go any other way? The Eskimos come into this one last in the CFL in time of possession and number of plays from scrimmage. They are also last in the CFL in points per game and things don’t figure to get better this week after the Eskimos were forced to make changes in their offensive line. The Eskimos continue to take penalties at a staggering rate and in fact, were penalized 13 times last week for 138 yards. It gets worse. With injuries to Aaron Grymes and J.C. Sherritt, two new faces for Edmonton will be tested. Bryan Williams will start at cornerback to fill in for Grymes, and Rennie Curran will take Sherritt’s spot as middle linebacker. Considering how smoothly Toronto’s offense is running this season, both players figure to run into trouble. Eskimos coach, Kavis Reed can’t decide on anything. He uses a three-headed quarterback system and we all saw what happened to the Blue Bombers when they tried a similar philosophy. All three QB’s are a mistake waiting to happen.

You think Ricky Ray isn’t excited to face his former team again. Damn right he is. Ray is playing the best football of his career. Ray hit on 34 of 38 passes in his last two games, both Toronto wins. Toronto has scored no less than 35 points in each of the last three outings. In fact, the Argos have taken care of the action on both sides of the ball during this three-game win streak, outscoring the competition by a combined 111-44 margin. The Argos are by far the class of the East. They have the two best players on the field here in Ray and Chad Owens. As Ray continues to turn the field into an operating table in the prime of his career, the reminder is present of what the Eskimos had, what might have been and how painful these get-togethers can be. The result should be another easy win for the home side.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +114 over OAKLAND

For starters, Cleveland is 18-7 against the AL West and 5-1 against the A’s this season. That number should be 6-0 after the Indians had runners on base every inning on Friday but lost 3-2. Yesterday, the Indians scored seven times and easily defeated the A’s and we expect more of the same here. Oakland can’t hit. This team is loaded with .240 hitters and they just lost Josh Reddick to an injury. Oakland’s .235 team batting average over the past 50 games is fourth worst in the majors, ahead of only the Astros, Marlins and Twins. They have won on pure luck the entire season but that unsustainable luck has run its course. The A’s have won just six of their past 16 games and in two of those six wins they scored three times in the eighth inning to pick it up. Tommy Milone is an average pitcher for a weak hitting team. Milone’s ERA on the season is 4.39. His ERA over his last five starts is 5.40. He comes in with a pedestrian 35% groundball rate and a case of gopheritis. Milone has been taken yard three times over his past two starts and 22 times this season. He’s averaged 1.5 jacks allowed per nine innings and that’s in correlation to his fly-ball bias profile. The Indians feature one of the best hitting lineups against southpaws in the league with a 23-16 record and a .265 team batting average. Cleveland has had nothing but scoring chances and base-runners over the past two days of this series and they figure to get more of the same here. The same can’t be said for the A’s.

The A’s are 26-15 at home against lefties. How can that be? Oakland is hitting .239 against southpaws, which is the second worst mark in the AL. Again, we turn to the A’s luck because a .239 team batting average does not equate to being 11 games over .500. That winning percentage is sure to even out over the remainder of the season and it likely begins here against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir missed Wednesday's start against the Twins due to dead arm syndrome, affecting the range of motion in his shoulder. The good news is that it wasn’t serious and he’s healthy again for this start. Kazmir had been on a roll before his disaster in his last outing, in which he was injured. Kazmir had four quality starts in his previous five starts, spanning 31.1 IP, allowing only six earned runs while posting 26 K/10 BB and an ERA of 2.39. Scott Kazmir’s comeback story is officially in high gear. The former Rays phenom - out of baseball one year ago - has returned to relevance with the Indians with resurgent velocity and strikeout rate. His high strikeout rate is supported by a 10.2% swinging strike rate and he’s also had a big increase in his groundball rate, which is now at a career high of 47%. Comparing Cleveland’s offense to the A’s is like comparing Aaron Rodgers to Tim Tebow. Wrong side favored.


Colorado +144 over BALTIMORE

Scott Feldman was much better suited to pitch at Wrigley Field for the Cubbies in the NL than he is pitching for the Orioles in the AL. In four of the past six years that he pitched in the American League, Feldman posted ERA’s over five. Since joining the Orioles, he’s picked up right where he left off with a 5.18 ERA over seven starts. At home it gets worse, as Feldman is 1-3 at Camden Yards with an ERA of 7.66. Feldman’s AL pedigree says it’s not likely to get any better, as he went 6 innings or fewer in 40% of his games as a member of the Texas Rangers. Arlington wasn't a factor either, as his road woes were worse. .802 OPS with base-runners is chronic (.808 career mark). Feldman’s quality start/disaster start history says avoid. It’s also worth noting that Feldman will face a hot hitting Colorado line-up.

The Rockies have scored 53 runs over their past 10 games and have hit .295 over that span. That’s second in the majors after the Dodgers. Jhoulys Chacin has quietly put together one of this year’s best season for a starting pitcher. Chacin has a 3.18 overall ERA, with a skills supported xERA of 3.49. The keys have been improvements with his slider and sinker that have both become almost unhittable. Over his last three starts, Chacin’s groundball rate was up to 62%. What’s even more impressive about Chacin is that 14 of his 23 starts this season have come at Coors Field. On the road, Chacin has been nothing short of dominant with a 1.87 ERA over nine starts. Over those nine road starts, Chacin has been taken yard one time. Over his last 37 innings, Chacin has walked four batters. Jhoulys Chacin is dealing it but has gone virtually unnoticed pitching for the Rockies. If this guy were a Dodger, he’d probably be in line for a Cy Young award because he’s been that good. He’s been as good as Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez and yet he’s in the price range of an average pitcher. That’s value at its best. Huge overlay.


MILWAUKEE +138 over Cincinnati

This line is completely out of whack. Cincinnati has lost the past two days here and they are under .500 on the road. Yesterday, the Reds were shutout and were held to five hits. Against Yovanni Gallardo yesterday, a pitcher just off the DL and having a horrible year, the Reds had three hits in 6.1 innings. That’s just one game but Cincinnati is hitting a major-league low .201 over their past 20 games and that’s even sicker when you consider that they play half their games at one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. Homer Bailey is not in great form either. He only has three wins (8 losses) in 13 road starts and these Brewers have had nothing but success against him. Current Brewers have 56 hits in 173 AB’s versus Bailey for a BA of .324. They also have an eye-opening .885 SLG % against him. Bailey looks completely legit this year but haven’t we seen this picture before? In seven years in the big leagues, Bailey has never been able to maintain consistently for an entire season. He’s been hit hard in his last two games against the light-hitting Cubs and A’s in which he was tagged for 15 hits and nine runs in 11.2 innings. Not interested at all in the Reds spotting a tag like this in Milwaukee.

The Brewers continue to play decent ball and that’s because they’re a decent team that grossly underachieved in the first 3½ months. Since July 14, Milwaukee is 17-13. Five of the eight regular players in their line-up are hitting over .290 during that stretch and overall that group is hitting .279 or better on the year. Wily Peralta enjoyed a big skill spike in July after posting some pedestrian numbers in June. Peralta’s groundball rate over the past month is at an elite 60%. He also posted a 95.1 mph average fastball velocity and a high 10.7% swinging strike rate. With top-tier raw stuff and a high groundball rate, Peralta has an extremely intriguing profile with nothing but profit potential. What makes him even more appealing here is that these Reds can’t hit him. In fact, current Cincinnati hitters have just 15 hits in 79 career AB’s against Peralta for a BA of just .190. Win or lose, this one is a must play based on the above facts.

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Betting Line Moves

Miami +150

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Saturday with the Orioles -$185/Rockies.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes two the first game is the "Chalkest" game on the board the Rangers -$280/Mariners and the Tigers -$170/Royals for $50.

"Mr Chalk" is 4-2 +$76 for the week 80-44 +$1297 for the 2013 MLB season.

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Bookieshunter

MotoGP play of the year: Marc Marquez to win Indianapolis GP

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Hondo

Hondo CCs the light

Slumping Hondo wiped out with the Yankees and Reds last night, a double-flusher that sent the runaway debt soaring to 935 javiers.

Tonight, since the skinny on Sabathia is that he’s back, there will be no Dempster-diving for Mr. Aitch — 20 units on the Bombers.

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Chance Lockwood Plays and Daily Chance Sunday

Premium Selections:

Arizona Diamondbacks +119 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies +145 vs. Baltimore Orioles

Minnesota Twins -125 vs. Chicago White Sox


Daily Chance Card:

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (1:08 pm): Kansas City +169

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (1:10 pm): San Francisco -168

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (1:35 pm): Atlanta -132

LA Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (1:35 pm): Dodgers -108

Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles (1:35 p.m. EST): Colorado +145

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 pm): Arizona +119

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (1:40 pm): Toronto +146

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (2:10 pm): Minnesota -125

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 pm): Cincinnati -150

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (2:20 pm): St Louis -166

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (3:05 pm): Texas -265

Houston Astros at LA Angels (3:35 pm): Houston +168

Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's (4:05 pm): Cleveland +116

NY Mets at San Diego Padres (4:10 pm): Mets -132

NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox (8:05 pm): Over 9 -115


Yesterdays Results:

Premium Selections: 1-1 -.23

Daily Chance Card: 4-10 -6.49


Overall Records:

Premium Selections: 15-19 -7.05

Daily Chance Card: 160-124 +14.50

[DaKid]

Any big al bud? Thanks

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Scott Landau Sunday:
ATL -135
MIL +148
HOU +175

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RAS

Sunday WNBA: 651 Wash/Atl Over 156.5

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Sports Junkie

PLAY #1

MLB: Yankees vs Boston (8:05 pm est.)

$500 MLB Play: Yankees ML +110 (Bovada) vs Boston

PLAY #2

MLB: Dodgers vs Phillies (1:35 pm est.)

$100 MLB Play: Phillies ML -103 (Bovada) vs Dodgers

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Scott Rickenbach 6* Over Easy


LA Dodgers/Philadelphia Over

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Minnesota Twins ML -125

3* (MLB) Pittsburgh Pirates ML -129
3* (MLB) Philadelphia Phillies ML +100