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Today's Free Picks for Aug 20, 2013
Tampa Bay @ BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay +100 over BALTIMORE
This is a good match-up for the Rays. They always seem to give the Orioles fits and it starts to get into the collective heads of the losing squad. Tampa took the opener last night and has now defeated the O’s in six of the past seven games. The scores in those Rays’ wins were 4-3, 8-0, 2-1, 3-1, 10-6 and 12-6. Back in April, Tampa Bay faced Miguel Gonzalez and got to him for six runs in 5.2 frames and they also took Gonzalez yard three times. That was early in the year when pitchers have plenty in the tank and now Gonzalez appears to be running on fumes. Gonzalez has been tagged for four bombs over his past three starts. Since the All-Star break he has made five starts and over that span covering 28 innings, Gonzalez has allowed 36 hits and 21 runs for an ERA of 5.14 and a BAA of .313. There are more signs of fatigue as well. Over his past five starts, Gonzalez has seen a significant decrease in his groundball rate from 42% to 34% and an increase in his line-drive rate from 21% to 26%. His WHIP since the break is at a troubling 1.46 and the Orioles have lost three of his last four starts. One of those losses came against Houston in which Gonzalez was knocked out in the fourth inning after allowing nine hits and nine runs (4 earned). Gonzalez is 29-years old and is in just his second year at this level. He’s battled injuries and he’s been bouncing around the minors since 2005. He threw 105 innings last season for the O’s and averaged just 69 innings per season as a minor-league reliever/starter over six seasons. He missed the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons. This season, Gonzalez is up to 129 innings already so it should come as no surprise that this guy is exhausted and hanging on for dear life. His chances for success here are slim at best.
By contrast, Alex Cobb is fresh. Cobb just spent two months on the DL and came back to throw a five-inning, three-hit gem against the Mariners in his first start back last Thursday. Prior to getting injured, Cobb had faced in succession, Colorado at Coors Field, San Diego, Toronto, the Yanks, Detroit, Boston and K.C. In three of those games in succession against Toronto, New York and Detroit, Cobb faced 84 batters and induced 45 groundballs against 17 fly-outs. He allowed one run or less in four of those starts and three runs or less in all but one. Overall, the Rays have won seven of Cobb’s last nine starts and he comes in with a 2.94 ERA in 14 starts this season, not to mention an elite groundball rate of 56%. Talk about value and you need not look any further than this game because it’s a pitching mismatch in our favor, the Rays own the Orioles and not many people are going to realize that Miguel Gonzalez is completely out of gas.
Our Pick
Tampa Bay +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY -1½ +120 over Chicago
The White Sox are scoring some runs lately and as a result of that, they’ve been winning some games but we’re not buying any of it. You see, the South Side has faced the brutal pitching staff of the Twins in seven of their past 10 games. A minor-league team could put up numbers against that staff. In between those seven games against the Twinkies, Chicago faced the Tigers for three games and they also were the first team to have a crack at the Yankees upon the return of the most hated man in America, Alex Rodriguez. With a day off yesterday to stop whatever momentum they had, the White Sox figure to get back to their losing ways here. Prior to the Yankees series, Chicago had lost 16 of 19 games and let’s not forget that they cleaned house over the past couple of weeks and own the second worst road record in baseball with 20 lousy wins in 61 games. After starting this season on the DL, John Danks made his season debut in late May. With a 2-10 record, Danks’s season mimics the season of the struggling White Sox. Danks’s 4.54 ERA is getting whacked by a high hr/f and fewer strikeouts than ever. His fastball velocity continues to slide. While it was 91.6 mph in 2010/11, it dropped to 90 mph in limited action last year and sits at 89 mph this year. Danks rarely wins. When he pitches on the road, he never wins, as his 0-6 road record with a 5-13 ERA can attest to.
The Royals faced the Chicago back at U.S. Cellular in late July and all they did was sweep the White Sox and hold them to three runs in three games. That was with Wade Davis and Bruce Chen starting in two of those games. Things get much tougher here for the White Sox in facing Ervin Santana. Kansas City rebuilt their rotation in the offseason with the big acquisition being James Shields but Santana has more than held his own. While his record is only 8-6, the rest of his numbers have been impressive. Santana’s xERA shows that there is real skills growth here. He’s walking fewer batters and his walks allowed haven’t been this low since 2008. Santana’s groundball % is also creeping up and now sits at a career high 48%. He’s also dominating lefties. While his career OPS against them is .772, he’s holding them to .603 in 2013. The 30-year-old Santana is peaking at the right time, which is often the case when a player is a free agent at the end of the year and that’s precisely Santana’s situation. Santana’s 3.19 ERA comes with full skills support and he figures to do a number on this extremely beatable guest
Our Pick
KANSAS CITY -1½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
Colorado @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA +101 over Colorado
The Rockies are a small favorite here but they are incorrectly billed as such and we’re all over it. Colorado has one of the league’s worst road records at 24-41. The Rockies have dropped three in a row and 11 of their past 13 road games. Colorado is favored here because Jorge De La Rosa comes in with a 12-6 record and a 3.22 ERA but it’s all smoke and mirrors. De La Rosa’s low ERA is a direct result of a high strand rate of 79%. Truth be told, De La Rosa has one of the worst batting averages against (.270) among all starting pitchers. With a low strikeout rate, a high line-drive rate of 29% and that high strand percentage, De La Rosa’s luck and ERA is unsustainable. He’s also had a string of soft batting line-ups recently (San Diego, Pittsburgh twice, the Cubbies, Miami and San Fran) and that, too, has helped to mask his poor skills. He’ll now face a Phillies team that is waking up and that has hit .302 against him. The Phillies snapped an ugly losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday and followed that up with a 5-4 win in the opener of this series. A couple of wins does wonders for a teams’ psyche and the Phillies figure to unleash it all here.
Tyler Cloyd began the season in the Phillies rotation but too many walks after six starts led to a 1.51 WHIP, which led to a one-way ticket back to the minors. Cloyd is a soft-tosser with a history of excellent control so his walks allowed was somewhat puzzling. He was lights-out at AAA before his call-up last season with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. In his six starts before being sent down, four of them were quality. Cloyd went down, worked on his mechanics and it has paid off. Over his past 10 starts, Cloyd has a 3.09 ERA with 11 walks versus 49 strikeouts in 64 innings. Cloyd locates his 87-90 fastball extremely well to both sides of the plate. To complement the plus command of his fastball, he mixes in a quality curveball and changeup, keeping hitters honest. While Cloyd will never overpower anyone, his ability to change speeds and command his arsenal have allowed him to succeed in the minors and throw many quality innings at this level too. He’s also been given a vote of confidence by new manager Ryne Sandberg, who has told Cloyd that he’s going to pitch every fifth day for the remainder of the year. Expect Cloyd to respond.
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 20, 2013
Tampa Bay @ BALTIMORETampa Bay +100 over BALTIMORE
This is a good match-up for the Rays. They always seem to give the Orioles fits and it starts to get into the collective heads of the losing squad. Tampa took the opener last night and has now defeated the O’s in six of the past seven games. The scores in those Rays’ wins were 4-3, 8-0, 2-1, 3-1, 10-6 and 12-6. Back in April, Tampa Bay faced Miguel Gonzalez and got to him for six runs in 5.2 frames and they also took Gonzalez yard three times. That was early in the year when pitchers have plenty in the tank and now Gonzalez appears to be running on fumes. Gonzalez has been tagged for four bombs over his past three starts. Since the All-Star break he has made five starts and over that span covering 28 innings, Gonzalez has allowed 36 hits and 21 runs for an ERA of 5.14 and a BAA of .313. There are more signs of fatigue as well. Over his past five starts, Gonzalez has seen a significant decrease in his groundball rate from 42% to 34% and an increase in his line-drive rate from 21% to 26%. His WHIP since the break is at a troubling 1.46 and the Orioles have lost three of his last four starts. One of those losses came against Houston in which Gonzalez was knocked out in the fourth inning after allowing nine hits and nine runs (4 earned). Gonzalez is 29-years old and is in just his second year at this level. He’s battled injuries and he’s been bouncing around the minors since 2005. He threw 105 innings last season for the O’s and averaged just 69 innings per season as a minor-league reliever/starter over six seasons. He missed the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons. This season, Gonzalez is up to 129 innings already so it should come as no surprise that this guy is exhausted and hanging on for dear life. His chances for success here are slim at best.
By contrast, Alex Cobb is fresh. Cobb just spent two months on the DL and came back to throw a five-inning, three-hit gem against the Mariners in his first start back last Thursday. Prior to getting injured, Cobb had faced in succession, Colorado at Coors Field, San Diego, Toronto, the Yanks, Detroit, Boston and K.C. In three of those games in succession against Toronto, New York and Detroit, Cobb faced 84 batters and induced 45 groundballs against 17 fly-outs. He allowed one run or less in four of those starts and three runs or less in all but one. Overall, the Rays have won seven of Cobb’s last nine starts and he comes in with a 2.94 ERA in 14 starts this season, not to mention an elite groundball rate of 56%. Talk about value and you need not look any further than this game because it’s a pitching mismatch in our favor, the Rays own the Orioles and not many people are going to realize that Miguel Gonzalez is completely out of gas.
Our Pick
Tampa Bay +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ KANSAS CITYKANSAS CITY -1½ +120 over Chicago
The White Sox are scoring some runs lately and as a result of that, they’ve been winning some games but we’re not buying any of it. You see, the South Side has faced the brutal pitching staff of the Twins in seven of their past 10 games. A minor-league team could put up numbers against that staff. In between those seven games against the Twinkies, Chicago faced the Tigers for three games and they also were the first team to have a crack at the Yankees upon the return of the most hated man in America, Alex Rodriguez. With a day off yesterday to stop whatever momentum they had, the White Sox figure to get back to their losing ways here. Prior to the Yankees series, Chicago had lost 16 of 19 games and let’s not forget that they cleaned house over the past couple of weeks and own the second worst road record in baseball with 20 lousy wins in 61 games. After starting this season on the DL, John Danks made his season debut in late May. With a 2-10 record, Danks’s season mimics the season of the struggling White Sox. Danks’s 4.54 ERA is getting whacked by a high hr/f and fewer strikeouts than ever. His fastball velocity continues to slide. While it was 91.6 mph in 2010/11, it dropped to 90 mph in limited action last year and sits at 89 mph this year. Danks rarely wins. When he pitches on the road, he never wins, as his 0-6 road record with a 5-13 ERA can attest to.
The Royals faced the Chicago back at U.S. Cellular in late July and all they did was sweep the White Sox and hold them to three runs in three games. That was with Wade Davis and Bruce Chen starting in two of those games. Things get much tougher here for the White Sox in facing Ervin Santana. Kansas City rebuilt their rotation in the offseason with the big acquisition being James Shields but Santana has more than held his own. While his record is only 8-6, the rest of his numbers have been impressive. Santana’s xERA shows that there is real skills growth here. He’s walking fewer batters and his walks allowed haven’t been this low since 2008. Santana’s groundball % is also creeping up and now sits at a career high 48%. He’s also dominating lefties. While his career OPS against them is .772, he’s holding them to .603 in 2013. The 30-year-old Santana is peaking at the right time, which is often the case when a player is a free agent at the end of the year and that’s precisely Santana’s situation. Santana’s 3.19 ERA comes with full skills support and he figures to do a number on this extremely beatable guest
Our Pick
KANSAS CITY -1½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
Colorado @ PHILADELPHIAPHILADELPHIA +101 over Colorado
The Rockies are a small favorite here but they are incorrectly billed as such and we’re all over it. Colorado has one of the league’s worst road records at 24-41. The Rockies have dropped three in a row and 11 of their past 13 road games. Colorado is favored here because Jorge De La Rosa comes in with a 12-6 record and a 3.22 ERA but it’s all smoke and mirrors. De La Rosa’s low ERA is a direct result of a high strand rate of 79%. Truth be told, De La Rosa has one of the worst batting averages against (.270) among all starting pitchers. With a low strikeout rate, a high line-drive rate of 29% and that high strand percentage, De La Rosa’s luck and ERA is unsustainable. He’s also had a string of soft batting line-ups recently (San Diego, Pittsburgh twice, the Cubbies, Miami and San Fran) and that, too, has helped to mask his poor skills. He’ll now face a Phillies team that is waking up and that has hit .302 against him. The Phillies snapped an ugly losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday and followed that up with a 5-4 win in the opener of this series. A couple of wins does wonders for a teams’ psyche and the Phillies figure to unleash it all here.
Tyler Cloyd began the season in the Phillies rotation but too many walks after six starts led to a 1.51 WHIP, which led to a one-way ticket back to the minors. Cloyd is a soft-tosser with a history of excellent control so his walks allowed was somewhat puzzling. He was lights-out at AAA before his call-up last season with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. In his six starts before being sent down, four of them were quality. Cloyd went down, worked on his mechanics and it has paid off. Over his past 10 starts, Cloyd has a 3.09 ERA with 11 walks versus 49 strikeouts in 64 innings. Cloyd locates his 87-90 fastball extremely well to both sides of the plate. To complement the plus command of his fastball, he mixes in a quality curveball and changeup, keeping hitters honest. While Cloyd will never overpower anyone, his ability to change speeds and command his arsenal have allowed him to succeed in the minors and throw many quality innings at this level too. He’s also been given a vote of confidence by new manager Ryne Sandberg, who has told Cloyd that he’s going to pitch every fifth day for the remainder of the year. Expect Cloyd to respond.
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
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