8-21-13

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Cleveland Insider

MLB
2* Rockies/Phillies over 7.5 (-120) 240/200
1* Blue Jays/Yankees over 9 (-110) 110/100
1* White Sox/Royals over 8 (-110) 110/100
1* Indians/Angels over 8 (E) 100/100
1* Angels +1.5 (-135) 135/100

WNBA
1* Indiana Fever -5.5 (buy 3 points) 200/100

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

LA DODGERS/MIAMI UNDER 7

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Bob Balfe

MLB
TAMPA RAYS +110
(Hellickson/Chen)

Let's keep it right here again. Tampa is on a roll and the O's are fading fast. Hellickson has won his last few against this Baltimore team and what has changed overnight? The Orioles just can't win close games and until they show us they are out of that slump why not continue to line our pockets with winners? Take the Rays.

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bookiemonsters
134-85 run

10-2-1 run last 13 plays

pod angels game over 8

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9xSports

(MLB) 7:05PM TAMPA BAY RAYS+116

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Bookieshunter

2* Atletico Madrid +1 over Barcelona (Spain Super Cup Soccer)
1* Astros ml

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Bookieshunter

2* det/minn under

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Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 21, 2013





Boston @ SAN FRANCISCO
Boston/SAN FRANCISCO over 8 +104

He’s baaaaaaaaaaack. In his most recent start on July 30, Barry Zito allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings, pushing his ERA above 5.00 and effectively knocking him out of the rotation. That was his fifth disaster start in his previous six. Nearly half of his 21 starts have been disasters and when they weren’t, it was luck driven. With his control creeping towards a sick level and batters having their way (.843 OPS against), this is a last ditch effort by the Giants to get the most out of the 20 million they have to pay him this season. That laughing you hear is Barry Zito collecting his pay-check because after this season, you will never see him again. The best news, however, is that this is a day game at AT&T Park where hard hit balls have a much better chance of leaving the yard than they do in night games. Since the All-Star break and covering 13 innings, Zito has a BAA of .328, an ERA of 9.00 and he’s been taken yard four times in those 13 innings. You might even see a few white towels in the Giants’ dugout before this one even starts. Against the Red Sox, Zito’s chances of success are about the same as Dick Van Dyke’s chances of appearing in the Broadway show version of Mary Poppins.
It’s been a turn-around season for the Red Sox. A season after finishing in the AL East cellar, they’re in a pennant race and one contributor is 25-year-old Felix Doubront, who has become a mainstay in the rotation but there are huge concerns regarding him. Doubront’s 3.95 ERA is much better than last year but xERA shows the skills are about the same. He’s maintained some of the strikeout rate improvement he posted in 2012, but control is still a concern. Doubront’s velocity has also declined. While he averaged 92.8 mph in 2011/12, he’s down to 90.5 this year. He’s also not getting batters to swing at balls off the plate. In 2012, he got swings on 31% of his pitches outside the strike zone, this year, it’s 24%. Doubront has also been roughed up in his past two starts, allowing a combined 14 hits and nine earned runs over eight innings. The Red Sox figure to put up a crooked number in an inning or two against Zito. The Giants could do the same to Doubront.

Our Pick
Boston/SAN FRANCISCO over 8 +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)






Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +103 over N.Y. YANKEES (1st 5 INN)

Jays manager John Gibbons can’t be trusted to manage a game correctly and that’s one of the reasons we’re playing this game in the first five innings. We also get a huge edge on the hill here and that’s another reason. Lastly, the Jays have lost 11 of 12 to the Yanks, including eight in a row and that’s the third reason. Back to Gibbons for a second.
Nursing a one-run lead in the sixth inning of a one-run lead in the first game of the DH yesterday, starter Esmil Rogers gave up a leadoff single to Alex Rodriguez and was replaced by left-hander Brett Cecil. The all-star reliever struck out Curtis Granderson and was replaced by Neil Wagner as Mark Reynolds was announced. Three batters later, light-hitting catcher Chris Stewart turned on a fastball and drove a three-run homer to left off Wagner, giving the Yanks the lead. Gibbons said of Cecil’s one-batter appearance. “He’s worked an awful lot this year. That’s what I want to do this last month and a half, save him for his sake.” Seriously Johnny boy? Save him for what? Cecil has worked a lousy 58.1 innings the entire year!! In terms of workload, he has not logged fewer than 143 innings in any season since 2008. He has thrown shutout ball in eight of his last nine appearances. Right-handers have batted .212 while lefties are batting .190. The next three Yankees vs. Cecil? Reynolds, 1-for-7 with three strikeouts; Nix, 2-for-10 with two strikeouts and Stewart at 0-for-3. It’s actually mind-boggling that a major-league manager would make that move. Naturally, the Jays went on to lose that game and the night cap.
Ok, with that out of the way, we can now turn our attentions back to this five-inning wager that not even John Gibbons can screw up. Adam Warren is a mop-up man. He’s has not started a game the entire year but the Yanks have lost an incredible 16 of the 17 games he’s appeared in. They usually bring him in when they are down five runs early in the game to close out an inning or in the eighth or ninth when they are losing by a wide margin. Warren's only other start was his lone major league appearance before this year and it was a disaster. He gave up six runs and eight hits in 2.1 innings of a 14-7 loss to the Chicago White Sox on June 29, 2012. He last pitched in Saturday's 6-1 defeat at Boston, giving up a run and three hits with three walks in two innings. Over his last 14 innings, Warren has walked 10 batters and has a 1.88 WHIP.
R.A. Dickey is in top form, especially on the road in which he has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his past five road starts. Dickey against Warren in the first five innings taking back a price is a no-brainer. Period.

Our Pick
Toronto +103 (1st 5 INN) (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)





Seattle @ OAKLAND
Seattle +120 over OAKLAND

Every time the A’s lose as a big favorite it feels like an opportunity lost because we’ve been maintaining for weeks that this team is not even an average one. The A’s have recently lost as 2½-1 favorites to the Astros, not once but twice. As a -152 favorite against the Indians on the weekend, they lost 7-1 and last night, as -195 chalk, they blew a 4-0 first inning lead and lost 7-4. The A’s are fade material because they are overvalued daily and because they have an offense that is capable of being shut down by any major league pitcher. Oakland is not as big a favorite here but they’re still overvalued with A.J. Griffin going. Griffin was the winning pitcher on Friday against Cleveland but in five innings he walked five and struck out three. The Indians left 13 runners on base that day but failed to cash in on numerous opportunities and that’s been the story against Griffin the entire season. Griffin has a pathetic 22%/55% groundball/fly-ball rate over his last five starts and a 31%/50% rate for the year. His xERA of 4.96 is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.76, suggesting that luck has played a major role in his 10 wins. Of his 25 starts this season, only 12 of them have been of the pure quality variety. A.J. Griffin is as beatable as almost any pitcher in the league and these Mariners have plenty of deep threats to knock some of those many fly-balls that Griffin serves up right out of the park.
No doubt the Mariners have an edge on the mound here with Hisashi Iwakuma. In 171 innings this season, Iwakuma has struck out 146 while issuing just 31 walks. Iwakuma has looked like an ace since joining this rotation last season. His skills have been ace-like too. His 10.9% swinging strike rate supports his strikeout rate uptick. Digging deeper, Iwakuma's success has come due to his sinker. It's a pitch that batters hit .302 against in 2012. They have managed only a .128 BA against it in 2013. Overall, Iwakuma is 11-6 with a skill supported 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s coming off a seven-inning, four-hit gem in Texas and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. Current A’s are batting just .212 against him in 113 combined AB’s and no matter how you break it down we get a price on the better offense with the better pitcher going. That works.

Our Pick
Seattle +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)





Pittsburgh @ SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh -128 over SAN DIEGO

The Pirates have thrived in this park over the past two days and they figure to keep it going here against a Padre team that is awful against right-handers at home and that has lost 10 of their past 14 games. San Diego has been outscored 11-2 in the first two games of this series and now they have to face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that is coming on strong. Gerrit Cole is getting progressively better with each passing start. His post-All-Star break skills have been great with 27 K’s and just 20 hits allowed in 30 innings to go along with a solid 50% groundball rate. Cole's 96 mph fastball is the third-best in the NL behind only Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi. Since being called up, Cole has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts. This guy is a gem that knows how to win and he has a great chance to thrive again here.
Quality pitchers don’t get traded in the heat of a pennant race in August but that’s precisely what happened with Ian Kennedy. He went from the contending D-Backs to the Padres and that alone says enough. In his last start, Kennedy was tagged for three jacks in 4.2 innings against the Mets. In his two home starts at Petco since being dealt, Kennedy has lasted a combined 10.1 innings against the aforementioned Mets and the Yankees. Kennedy continues to get hurt by the long ball and that’s no surprise when you consider his fly-ball bias profile. Overall, Kennedy is 4-9 with a 5.12 ERA. Since joining the Padres his ERA is 4.42 but at home it’s 5.13. He also comes in with an unacceptable 1.41 WHIP on the year and a 1.45 WHIP with his new team. It appears as though Ian Kennedy was not comfortable in Arizona’s Chase Field and nothing has changed at San Diego’s Petco Park. In fact, it’s got worse and these Pirates figure to take advantage.

Our Pick
Pittsburgh -128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.56)





Chicago @ KANSAS CITY
Chicago +150 over KANSAS CITY

Since winning both games of a DH in Detroit, the Royals have dropped three straight. They’ve also lost six of eight including the opener of this series last night in which they were shutout by John Danks. Jeremy Guthrie should never be a -160 favorite over anyone. Guthrie is coming off back-to-back games against Detroit and Boston in which he surrendered a combined nine runs but he also gave up 23 hits over 13 innings and pitched with runners on in just about every inning. Those are stressful innings that take a toll and this guy has been so inconsistent his entire career that he just can’t be trusted spotting a tag like this one. Guthrie has just 88 K’s in 160.2 innings. His line-drive rate is up to 26% over his past five starts and his HR/F is up to an alarming 13%. No question, Guthrie is capable of a good outing but he’s just as capable of a poor one and the White Sox are suddenly playing their best ball of the season.
The South Side has won four in a row and 10 of their past 15 games. Over that span they are fourth in the majors in team batting average, just behind the Yankees, Tigers and Dodgers. Andre Rienzo makes his fifth start of the year with three of his first four starts being of the pure quality variety. The tall and thin righty comes at hitters with a four-pitch mix featuring a fastball in the low 90s, a solid average cutter and curveball, and a below-average change-up. Aside from his lively fastball, Rienzo’s best pitch is his curve which serves as his strikeout pitch. In the past, he has shown signs of erratic command and control but for the most part he locates well and pitches around the zone. His lean build has raised many questions about his durability over a full season, promoting a possible move to the pen, but with three average or better pitches, a team would be hard-pressed to force the issue without letting him test the waters at this level and so far he has passed. Rienzo’s arsenal has shown dominance at times, striking out over nine batters a game on average. He also comes in with an elite 51% groundball rate and elite line-drive rate of 14%. That line-drive rate suggests batters are having a difficult time squaring up against Rienzo and the best news is that the Royals have never seen him before. The price here on the South Side is not only appealing, it’s a definite overlay that has a good chance to cash.

Our Pick
Chicago +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

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Big Al

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL HIGH ROLLER!
Phillies -163

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TMC Sports Advisors

Pittsburgh -125

Detroit -1.5 -125

Dodgers -170

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New England Sports Sydicate

7-1 last 8

1* Pittsburgh -122

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Scott Spreitzer

3* Chicago Cubs

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Joe Gavazzi

3* Cleveland (-140)
(J. Masterson -R vs J. Williams -R)

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Jimmy the Gent

7* total lock - HOUSTON/TEXAS - OVER 8.5 -115

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Al Demarco

10 dime Dodgers