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Today's Free Picks for Aug 23, 2013
TAMPA BAY vs N.Y. Yankees
TAMPA BAY -108 over N.Y. Yankees
Give the Yankees credit for an outstanding run of late including a just completed four-game sweep of the Blue Jays. Since being swept by the White Sox upon A-Rod’s return, New York has won 10 of 14 games but seven of those 10 wins came against two reeling and banged up clubs, the Angels and Blue Jays. That run and the all the attention surrounding the Yanks has once again made them an overvalued proposition. Things get much more difficult on the road here for A-Rod and the Yanks where New York is two games under .500 this season. Hiroki Kuroda is having an outstanding season but he was whacked in his last start against the Red Sox in Boston and these Rays have also hit him hard. In fact, current Rays have a .304 batting average and an eye-opening .904 OPS against Kuroda in 92 AB’s. At the Trop, Kuroda has made two starts and has allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs in 11.2 frames for an ERA of 6.17. Kuroda has a career batting average against at this venue of .333.
The Rays are 41-23 at home. That’s close to a 65% winning percentage at the Trop, yet they are priced here as a team that wins about half of its home games. That’s value. Chris Archer is a hard thrower with swing-and-miss stuff that finally reined in his control. Archer’s overall skills mark his progress. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, Archer is gaining more confidence with each passing start. What really sticks out in Archer’s profile is a 16% line-drive rate and that suggests that hitters are having a difficult time squaring up on him. Lastly, current Yanks have just nine hits combined (.180) in 50 AB’s versus Archer, making him and the Rays a rock solid choice spotting less than a dime.
Our Pick
TAMPA BAY -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Washington @ KANSAS CITY
Washington -104 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals have gone from contenders to pretenders by losing five in a row and eight of their past 10 games. This untimely run of poor results has K.C. sitting 9½-games back of the Tigers in the Central Division and 7 games back in the Wild Card race. With a chance to make up some ground with three games at home against the Marlins and White Sox, who were a combined 39-83 on the road this season before coming into Kaufman Stadium, the Royals proceeded to lose five of those six games. Reeling and in a demoralized state of mind, the Royals are a solid fade here with Bruce Chen trying to stop the bleeding. Chen's 5.09 xERA on a 2.20 ERA is the red flag here. An 84% strand rate has kept the base-runners who contributed to his 1.46 WHIP as a starter from scoring. While Chen maintained a decent strikeout rate as a reliever this year, that rate has dropped dramatically as a starter. Chen has just nine K’s over his past 19 frames and just three K’s in 12 innings in two of his past three starts. Bruce Chen couldn’t crack this rotation to start the year. He’s been moving from starter to reliever and back for years. Since 1998, when he first broke into the big leagues, Chen has pitched for Atlanta, Philly, the Mets, Cincinnati, Boston, Houston, Texas, Baltimore and finally K.C. They all can't be wrong. His ERA this season is a complete mirage. He has a disturbing fly-ball/groundball rate of 27%/54% and an even more disturbing rate of 23%/61% since being asked to start.
The Nationals have won three in a row and scored 20 runs over that span. Gio Gonzalez had a horrible 5.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in July, primarily due to one awful start. His base skills in July were actually great with 35 K’s in 28 innings and a 58% groundball rate. Gonzalez was done in by an unlucky 42% hit rate and 19% hr/f in July. That hit rate was the highest of any starter in MLB that month. In three August starts, his hit rate has normalized and Gonzalez has allowed just four earned runs in 18 innings. He also struck out 16 batters while inducing 58% groundballs. Chen favored over Gonzalez might have had some merit a month ago but it has no merit right now considering the way that K.C. has fallen. Truth be told, Chen favored or at a pick’em over Gonzalez right now is bordering on ludicrous.
Our Pick
Washington -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND
Minnesota +149 over CLEVELAND
The Indians return home from a nine-game trip with the last six games on the West Coast in Oakland and L.A. Cleveland won six of those nine games but luck played a huge role in the majority of those games, as the Tribe could have easily lost four of those six wins. Over its past 15 games, Cleveland is batting .219, which is the worst mark in the AL over that stretch. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to struggle with his consistency and control, two factors that make him a poor play in this matchup. Over his past five starts, Jimenez has an ugly 1.88 and 25% of his starts this season have been pure disasters outings. Between decreased velocity and the inability to avoid free passes, Jimenez is a huge risk spotting a price like the one here.
The spoiler role is one that every team in every sport loves to play. The Twins just took two of three in Detroit and will welcome the opportunity to make life miserable for the Tribe. Sam Deduno is the definition of "mixed bag". Walks have always been a problem for Deduno, but he's made strides in managing the strike zone so far, cutting his control nearly in half from his career numbers. That’s a positive sign. He keeps the ball on the ground thanks to a sinking fastball with decent velocity (90-91 mph), which somewhat mitigates the need to rack up Ks. Deduno’s groundball rate is outstanding at 59% for the year. Stranger things have happened than a 30-year-old suddenly seeing the light (see: Dickey, R.A), and while his strikeout rate still needs work, his heavy GB tilt has made him fairly disaster averse (45%/18% quality start/disaster start). Sam Deduno is becoming very interesting and as a rather large dog against Jimenez and the cold bats of the Tribe, he and the Twinkies offer up some strong value here.
Our Pick
Minnesota +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 23, 2013
TAMPA BAY vs N.Y. YankeesTAMPA BAY -108 over N.Y. Yankees
Give the Yankees credit for an outstanding run of late including a just completed four-game sweep of the Blue Jays. Since being swept by the White Sox upon A-Rod’s return, New York has won 10 of 14 games but seven of those 10 wins came against two reeling and banged up clubs, the Angels and Blue Jays. That run and the all the attention surrounding the Yanks has once again made them an overvalued proposition. Things get much more difficult on the road here for A-Rod and the Yanks where New York is two games under .500 this season. Hiroki Kuroda is having an outstanding season but he was whacked in his last start against the Red Sox in Boston and these Rays have also hit him hard. In fact, current Rays have a .304 batting average and an eye-opening .904 OPS against Kuroda in 92 AB’s. At the Trop, Kuroda has made two starts and has allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs in 11.2 frames for an ERA of 6.17. Kuroda has a career batting average against at this venue of .333.
The Rays are 41-23 at home. That’s close to a 65% winning percentage at the Trop, yet they are priced here as a team that wins about half of its home games. That’s value. Chris Archer is a hard thrower with swing-and-miss stuff that finally reined in his control. Archer’s overall skills mark his progress. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, Archer is gaining more confidence with each passing start. What really sticks out in Archer’s profile is a 16% line-drive rate and that suggests that hitters are having a difficult time squaring up on him. Lastly, current Yanks have just nine hits combined (.180) in 50 AB’s versus Archer, making him and the Rays a rock solid choice spotting less than a dime.
Our Pick
TAMPA BAY -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Washington @ KANSAS CITYWashington -104 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals have gone from contenders to pretenders by losing five in a row and eight of their past 10 games. This untimely run of poor results has K.C. sitting 9½-games back of the Tigers in the Central Division and 7 games back in the Wild Card race. With a chance to make up some ground with three games at home against the Marlins and White Sox, who were a combined 39-83 on the road this season before coming into Kaufman Stadium, the Royals proceeded to lose five of those six games. Reeling and in a demoralized state of mind, the Royals are a solid fade here with Bruce Chen trying to stop the bleeding. Chen's 5.09 xERA on a 2.20 ERA is the red flag here. An 84% strand rate has kept the base-runners who contributed to his 1.46 WHIP as a starter from scoring. While Chen maintained a decent strikeout rate as a reliever this year, that rate has dropped dramatically as a starter. Chen has just nine K’s over his past 19 frames and just three K’s in 12 innings in two of his past three starts. Bruce Chen couldn’t crack this rotation to start the year. He’s been moving from starter to reliever and back for years. Since 1998, when he first broke into the big leagues, Chen has pitched for Atlanta, Philly, the Mets, Cincinnati, Boston, Houston, Texas, Baltimore and finally K.C. They all can't be wrong. His ERA this season is a complete mirage. He has a disturbing fly-ball/groundball rate of 27%/54% and an even more disturbing rate of 23%/61% since being asked to start.
The Nationals have won three in a row and scored 20 runs over that span. Gio Gonzalez had a horrible 5.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in July, primarily due to one awful start. His base skills in July were actually great with 35 K’s in 28 innings and a 58% groundball rate. Gonzalez was done in by an unlucky 42% hit rate and 19% hr/f in July. That hit rate was the highest of any starter in MLB that month. In three August starts, his hit rate has normalized and Gonzalez has allowed just four earned runs in 18 innings. He also struck out 16 batters while inducing 58% groundballs. Chen favored over Gonzalez might have had some merit a month ago but it has no merit right now considering the way that K.C. has fallen. Truth be told, Chen favored or at a pick’em over Gonzalez right now is bordering on ludicrous.
Our Pick
Washington -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
Minnesota @ CLEVELANDMinnesota +149 over CLEVELAND
The Indians return home from a nine-game trip with the last six games on the West Coast in Oakland and L.A. Cleveland won six of those nine games but luck played a huge role in the majority of those games, as the Tribe could have easily lost four of those six wins. Over its past 15 games, Cleveland is batting .219, which is the worst mark in the AL over that stretch. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to struggle with his consistency and control, two factors that make him a poor play in this matchup. Over his past five starts, Jimenez has an ugly 1.88 and 25% of his starts this season have been pure disasters outings. Between decreased velocity and the inability to avoid free passes, Jimenez is a huge risk spotting a price like the one here.
The spoiler role is one that every team in every sport loves to play. The Twins just took two of three in Detroit and will welcome the opportunity to make life miserable for the Tribe. Sam Deduno is the definition of "mixed bag". Walks have always been a problem for Deduno, but he's made strides in managing the strike zone so far, cutting his control nearly in half from his career numbers. That’s a positive sign. He keeps the ball on the ground thanks to a sinking fastball with decent velocity (90-91 mph), which somewhat mitigates the need to rack up Ks. Deduno’s groundball rate is outstanding at 59% for the year. Stranger things have happened than a 30-year-old suddenly seeing the light (see: Dickey, R.A), and while his strikeout rate still needs work, his heavy GB tilt has made him fairly disaster averse (45%/18% quality start/disaster start). Sam Deduno is becoming very interesting and as a rather large dog against Jimenez and the cold bats of the Tribe, he and the Twinkies offer up some strong value here.
Our Pick
Minnesota +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)
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