8-24-13

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1082-817 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner SAT over 8 Blue Jays/Houst

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Red Sox / Dodgers under 7

Pirates/Giants over 6.5

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Chicago at Atlanta

The Dream look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record. Atlanta is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Indiana at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 107.815; Minnesota 119.323 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 152 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 147 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10); Over

Game 603-604: Chicago at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.207; Atlanta 116.300 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 149 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 155 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

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Cappers Access

Bills -1
Titans -3
Padres -120

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA CHICAGO at ATLANTA

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game
194-118 since 1997. ( 62.2% 64.2 units )
19-12 this year. ( 61.3% 5.8 units )

WNBA CHICAGO at ATLANTA

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) playing on back-to-back days
249-92 since 1997. ( 73.0% 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA CHICAGO at ATLANTA

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after 1 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season
424-274 since 1997. ( 60.7% 122.6 units )
15-18 this year. ( 45.5% -4.8 units )

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DHayes2

1* Dolphins -3

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB DIAMOND DOMINATOR

Money Line: Philadelphia-105

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ANDRE GOMES

English Premier League

Everton vs West Bromwich Albion (3:00PM BST - 10:00AM EST)
Everton was the team in Round 1 that had the highest ball possession in a game with 67% and that happened on a road game for them! That might look weird for a non-top team like Everton, but that's the philosophy of their new Head Coach Roberto Martinez. They created a lot of chances on build up plays against Norwich, but they struggled in being effective in those. They scored two goals, but they should have score even more! This playing style will be especially important for them on their home games like today's, where their opponents will adapt a defensive style and so, Everton will need to know how to play high on the field. They know how to play like that, so they shouldn't have problems in putting a lot of pressure on WBA today.

WBA was outclassed at home against Southampton in Round 1. They were a huge surprise at the start of the past season, as they were 3rd in the league table after 13 games, but then they won just one game of their last ten! Their offensive dynamic has been terrible and it only got worse with Nicolas Anelka deciding to abandon soccer out of nowhere. Without him, WBA lost their "best striker". By the way, Centre Back Sylvain Distin is also doubtful for today. I don't believe WBA will be able to put problems on Everton's defense today, which is their weakest area. With WBA lacking firepower without Anelka, Everton will take advantage of their much superior class over WBA to get an easy today on their home opener.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Everton (-0.75) @ -143

West Ham United @ Newcastle United
Newcastle had a terrible preseason that included two draws against two Portuguese teams (Paços Ferreira and Sporting Braga). They were also completely outclassed by Manchester City last Monday on Round 1, but that wasn't a big surprise given the quality of City. However, it's important to note that Steven Taylor was sent off in that game and so, he will be suspended for today's game. Besides that, their best center midfielder Yohan Cabaye will be out of today's game as well. The books are giving them a 42% chance of winning today, but I think that's too much given their current form.

West Ham is coming from a solid win against Cardiff in Round 1. They are a team made to play in counter moves with fast transitions to the offense. They had that attitude at home against Cardiff, where they had just 44% of ball possession, but where they would try to steal the ball as soon as possible and use fast transitions. This was how they shot the ball 18 times during the game! I expect the same attitude from West Ham today. Newcastle will try to assume the game, as they will be playing at home and West Ham will love that. Newcastle struggled on defense against Manchester City, especially on both sides, and even though Joe Cole isn't as dangerous as Jesus Navas, he is coming from an excellent performance against Cardiff and he will be a constant threat to Newcastle today. Therefore, I see good value on West Ham today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on West Ham United (+0.25) @ -109

Sunderland @ Southampton
If there was a team that didn't deserve to lose in Round 1 and a team that won but with a lot of luck, then we are talking about Sunderland and Southampton respectively. Sunderland created several chances against Fulham and they had 21 shots during the game! They showed good offensive dynamic with Jozy Altidore and the playmaker Emanuele Giaccherini, but they just couldn't shoot the ball on target. They eventually allowed a goal on the only shot on target that Fulham had and it was on a corner back, a set piece. For today's game, Craig Gardner and David Vaughan return from suspensions to boost what was looking like a rather thin squad last week. The former should play at right-back ahead of Ondrej Celustka.

The opposite happened with Southampton on Round 1. They won their game with a late penalty scored by Rickie Lambert at WBA. They spent a lot of money on the offseason, especially with the acquisitions of Pablo Osvaldo and Victor Wanyama. This is why they are overrated right now. The integration of the new players takes time and Southampton doesn't deserve to have a 60% chance of winning today's game. Therefore, I see excellent value on Sunderland today on the handicap and so, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Sunderland (+1) @ -118

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PAUL LEINER

100* Dodgers -125

50* Mariners -130

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Saturday's Betting Notes

August 24, 2013

Preseason Trends

-- Road teams are 3-1 in Week 3
-- Favorites are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in Week 3
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in Week 3

Quick Hitters

-- Eight teams will be looking for their first preseason win on Saturday and there are two matchups that pit winless clubs against one another – Kansas City at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at Tennessee.
-- Five teams remain undefeated (2-0) in the preseason. Buffalo and Washington are two of those and they will square off in a late- afternoon battle from D.C. at 4:30 p.m. ET.
-- Three teams in action on Saturday, Tampa Bay (69), Jacksonville (64) and San Diego (64) have all struggled on the defensive side.
-- Philadelphia is the only road favorite listed on Saturday.
-- All totals are listed above 40 except the Giants-Jets matchup, which is hovering between 38 and 39 points.
-- Arizona has only surrendered seven points in the preseason.

Who’s the Boss?

Our friend “The SportsBoss” broke down QB rotations at the start of the preseason and listed seven units that he believed to have a distinct advantage in the exhibitions. Through two weeks of exhibition games, those teams were 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS.

Arizona (2-0)
Baltimore (2-1)
Carolina (2-1)
Cincinnati (2-0)
Cleveland (2-0)
New Orleans (2-0)
Washington (2-0)

The record dropped this week automatically with Carolina beating Baltimore 34-27 on Thursday. Even though you have five more possible winners with this angle in Week 3, you might want to tread lightly since starters are expected to receive more minutes in the dress rehearsals. However, Week 4 might present value with the seven teams above.

Week 3 Coaching Angles

New York Giants - Tom Coughlin is 2-7 ATS in his last nine dress rehearsals.
Cincinnati Bengals – Marvin Lewis is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 dress rehearsals.

Preseason Betting Trends from Tony Stoffo

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. The Chiefs are 0-2 this season with Reid in control.

Expert Thoughts

Below is analysis on a handful of games that you would find in our pro football products on VegasInsider.com.

Washington vs. Buffalo – Joe Nelson

The Bills have faced some tough luck with rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel getting injured last week and likely to miss the remainder of the preseason, essentially handing the starting job to Kevin Kolb despite his marginal track record. This is a critical game for Kolb to impress as Manuel and rookie Jeff Tuel have provided most of the offensive success so far this preseason for the Bills. Buffalo is playing up-tempo on offense which will be hard for Washington to adjust to on a short week after playing Monday night. Coach Marrone was very upset after the Week 2 game despite a win as penalties were in the forefront. Look for a crisper performance all around this week from Buffalo. Mike Shanahan is known for a strong historical mark in preseason games, 2-0 this season after Monday’s 24-13 win over Pittsburgh. The short week will have a big impact on Washington as starters are only expected to clock about 20 plays in this game before going to deeper reserves and fighting out position battles. Coach Marrone and the Bills are 2-0 in the preseason and the defense has been aggressive, something that is rare in the preseason NFL. Buffalo is mixing looks with a both 3-4 and 4-3 packages and it has been effective at confusing teams through two weeks. The secondary has also been a bright spot for the Bills on defense. With Shanahan and his preseason track record, going 52-30 S/U in preseason games, this line is inflated even with key players likely to see limited time with the awkward scheduling for the Redskins.

Indianapolis vs. Cleveland – Jimmy Boyd

The Browns have had some solid matchup advantages in the first two games on the preseason schedule. They faced the first string defense from the Rams for just one quarter. In Week 2 they faced a Lions team that has one of the worst defensive secondaries in the league. The Colts are certainly not a defensive powerhouse, but they will be the toughest challenge the Browns have faced, and Indianapolis has the luxury of playing in front of their home crowd. Cleveland's defense is also in for a challenge when they face off against Andrew Luck and his wealth of solid receivers. The Colts have been keeping the starters on the field longer as we progress through the preseason schedule.

Tennessee vs. Atlanta – Pat Hawkins

The Falcons have excelled over the last several years in Week 3 of the preseason. They take this game seriously and keep the starters in for all of the first half. They have gone 8-0 ATS in the "dress rehearsal" game in the last eight years, look for the trend to continue as the Falcons have plenty of fire power on offense to extend a nice size lead.

Dallas vs. Cincinnati – Bruce Marshall

Even in preseason, the old "better team getting the points" theory has a lot of substance. Here is another case; having watched Dallas in all three games, I have been completely unimpressed, especially the offense which has put almost nothing together. Dolphin game very fluky, a loss to the lowly Raiders and outplayed worse than the score indicated by Arizona does not bode well. Perhaps Romo's recovery from the back issues have slowed the progress of the offense throughout summer, but execution has been spotty at best, and not sold on the Kiffin defense, which has faced a couple of sloppy foes and has yet to get severely tested. The best unit on the field is the Cincy defense, with the first string roughing up both Atlanta and Tennessee, and I really like the Bengals' QB rotation after Dalton goes out in the 3rd Q, as both Josh Johnson (especially Johnson) and John Skelton have moved the team. Cowboys 1-5 vs. line last six preseason game threes and just 4-7 vs. spread in exhibitions for Garrett since 2011.

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CHRIS JORDAN

400 Giants -2

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River City Sharps

3 UNITS Pittsburgh Pirates -130

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BOB BALFE

WASHINGTON REDSKINS +1

The Bills have not been to the playoffs in a while, but EJ Manuel will change all of that. This guy could be rookie of the year, but he is out for the rest of the preseason. Buffalo has to be very careful and cannot afford another injury at the QB position. I think the Redskins have better backups and should win this game today. Take Washington.

11-1 Preseason.

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Today's MLB Picks

Washington at Kansas City

The Nationals look to follow up last night's series-opening 11-10 win and build on their 7-0 record in Jordan Zimmermann's last 7 starts in Game 2 of a series. Washington is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 24 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Arizona at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.597; Philadelphia (Martin) 14.652 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.382; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.676 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-200); Under

Game 955-956: Colorado at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Manship) 14.403; Miami (Fernandez) 15.967 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Miami (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-200); Under

Game 957-958: Atlanta at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.243; St. Louis (Miller) 15.189 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 13.188; San Diego (Stults) 14.616 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.388; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.702 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Over

Game 963-964: Oakland at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.171; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.512 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.613; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.726 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.202; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.782 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Wang) 13.659; Houston (Peacock) 14.940 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 971-972: Texas at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 17.445; White Sox (Santiago) 15.807 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.219; Seattle (Ramirez) 14.394 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over

Game 975-976: Detroit at NY Mets (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.227; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.879 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 6 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under

Game 977-978: Boston at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.784; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.251 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 979-980: Washington at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.669; Kansas City (Davis) 15.231 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

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Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) San Diego Padres ML -122

3* (NFL) Indianapolis Colts -2.5
3* (NFL) New Orleans Saints +2.5