8-27-13

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KYLE HUNTER

MLB	Aug 27 '13 7:05p	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Take: New York Yankees -115		in 7h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Toronto Blue Jays took the first game of this series last night, but I like the New York Yankees to get back in the winning column on Tuesday. Andy Pettitte has been in good form of late. He has allowed just 5 runs total in his last three starts. The Blue Jays lineup isn't nearly as good without Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera in the lineup. J.A. Happ hasn't been very good this year, and the Yankees have hit him very well in the past. The Yankees offense is slowly getting healthy, and that should help a lot here. New York is 4-0 in their last 4 games as the favorite. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games with the total set between 9 and 10.5 runs. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. The Yankees are 4-1 in Pettitte's last 5 starts against Toronto. Take the Yankees.

MLB	Aug 27 '13 8:10p	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Take: Total 9 ov+100		in 8h
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Houston Astros will start Paul Clemens in this one. Clemens has been a reliever in his big league career, and he hasn't been a good one. He has a 6.36 ERA on the year. In Triple-A, Clemens had an ERA well above 4. This isn't a formula for success here. Jose Quintana is a mediocre left-hander, and the Astros are better against south paws than righties. The hot weather in Chicago is really helping the ball fly well here. The wind is also expected to be blowing out during this one. The over is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 road games against a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in the White Sox last 6 games with the total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Brian O'Nora's last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. In all, a 17-0 angle backs this play. Take the over.

MLB	Aug 27 '13 10:10p	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Take: Total 7 un-101		in 10h
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Texas Rangers have a very good pitching staff that is underrated by many people. Derek Holland is right near the top of my list of underrated pitchers. Holland has a 2.95 ERA on the year despite pitching in a very tough home ballpark. How has Holland done at Safeco Field against the Mariners? He has a spectacular 0.68 ERA in his career at Seattle. Hisashi Iwakuma has a WHIP of just 1.01 this year, and he has been great at home. Both of these pitchers are very good, and I see a low scoring close game all the way here. Take the under.

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Michael Tang
Totalsforyou

2* Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals (4:05pm PST)
Pick: Washington Nationals @-165

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Ultra Sports MLB

915 New York Yankees -115 List Pettitte vs. Happ
921 Baltimore +120 List Chen vs. Doubront
927 Texas -120 List Holland vs. Iwakuma

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TheMachines picks

all 10 units

bos
laa
wash

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Vegas Runner

WNBA True Steam - Seattle

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Seabass Report for Tuesday-all 50's:
Milwaukee
OVER San Francisco
Yankees

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Mitch Wilson

Dog of the day: Oakland

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Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Aug 27, 2013





Philadelphia @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS -1½ +172 over Philadelphia

Philadelphia is hitting .232 against lefties this season. On the road, that mark is even worse. The Phillies putrid .219 batting average in August is the worst in the majors and they’ll face a good lefty here in Jonathon Niese. Niese missed almost two months with a partial tear of his rotator cuff, yet he has returned in top form. All three of his starts since returning have been decent but his last two have been outstanding. In 13 innings over his past two starts, Niese has struck out 18 batters while allowing a combined two runs. Niese is healthy and he’s fresh. While other pitchers labor to the finish line after a long season with 150+ innings and 30—35 starts, Niese has only logged 96 innings and 17 starts. Niese has dominated the Phillies in the past, including one start this year when he was pitching with shoulder issues. Now feeling 100% better, chances are he dominates them again.
Kyle Kendrick threw 159 innings all of last season. He’s already thrown 160 innings this year. Only once in his seven major league seasons has Kendrick surpassed the 160 inning plateau. That came in 2010 in which Kendrick posted a 5.89 ERA in his final six starts of the season. We’re seeing the signs of fatigue now that plagued him back in 2010. Over his last five starts, Kendrick is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.93. Kendrick’s skills look like those of a back-end starter; nothing more. He has excellent control but a lack of strikeouts continues to hamper his long-term outlook. There’s not much more than meets the eye with Kendrick. Without a big strikeout pitch or plus velocity (his sinker tops out at 90 mph), there’s lots of hard contact against him. A 25% line-drive rate over his past seven starts assures us that Kendrick is hanging on by a thread. He’s in line for another blow-up and with this nice take-back on the Mets spotting 1½-runs, the risk is worth the reward, as this ticket has a very good chance of cashing.


Our Pick
N.Y. METS -1½ +172 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.44)





San Francisco @ COLORADO
San Francisco +109 over COLORADO

Yusmeiro Petit was a young pitcher on the rise a few years ago. He showed flashes with Arizona of becoming an elite command artist. He posted elite skills with them down the stretch of 2008 at the age of 23. Now at the age of 28 and spending the better part of the past eight years in the minors, Petit has overpaid his dues. He's no longer a prospect but he does bear watching because of his outstanding control and his ability to strikeout hitters. At Triple-AAA Fresno this season, Petit walked just 13 batters in 88 frames while whiffing 91. He was called up to face Cincinnati on July 23 and struck out seven in 5.1 innings and didn’t walk anyone, while allowing just two runs. If Barry Zito wasn’t being paid 20M this season, Petit would have been up long ago. The injury to Matt Cain has opened a door for him once again. Petit has been given chances before and has never been able to stick in the majors but there is no denying he has the skills to do well and has a better chance of success here than his counterpart Chad Bettis.
Bettis does not deserve to be favored over anyone. In five starts since being called up, Bettis is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA but his xERA over his five starts is 5.66. Four of his five starts have come on the road so he hasn’t felt the effects of this park yet. He will. In 24 innings, Bettis has walked 13 and struck out 13. He’s also given up 27 hits and when you combine that with the number of walks he’s issued, the result is a troublesome 1.67 WHIP. The Giants are loaded with patient hitters that can work the count and that will come into play here, as Bettis is constantly falling behind. It may also surprise you to learn that the Giants have been one the NL’s best offensive teams on the road with a .262 average, which is third in the NL behind St. Louis and the Dodgers. Also noteworthy is that the Giants have struck out 437 times on the road, which is the lowest strikeout total in the NL and second lowest in the entire league. All of this spells trouble for the Chad Bettis and his minor-league stuff. Bettis is pitching at this level only because the Rockies have little else in quality alternatives. Pencil us in.

Our Pick
San Francisco +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)





Milwaukee @ PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee +124 over PITTSBURGH

Jeff Locke is 9-4 with a 3.01 ERA, which is rather remarkable when you consider that he wasn't even in the Pirates plans this past spring. He ranks among the league leaders in ERA and he even earned a spot on the All-Star roster. What Locke’s surface stats don’t tell you is that he's performed way above his ability. Locke’s calling card as a prospect and 2nd round draft choice was command and control. But he averaged four walks a game in July and that has risen to six a game in August. Locke's 83% strand rate and 22% hit rate in the first half were both on the extreme side of lucky but those rates have normalized and the results have told the real story of his pedestrian skills. Over his last five starts, Locke has pitched to a 7.77 ERA and a WHIP of 2.36. Over his last 22 innings, he’s walked 15 batters. His underlying numbers told us he was a fluke and we’ve been passing that information over to you for weeks. Locke’s surface starts and W/L record make him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and an almost automatic fade. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are 7th in the majors against lefties with a .265 team batting average.
Milwaukee continues to play solid ball and they are without question the best 16 games under .500 team in a long time. The Brewers just completed 10 straight against the Reds and the Cardinals and they went a respectable 5-5. We can assure you that both those contenders were not sad to see the Brewers off. Prior to that, Milwaukee had won 15 of its past 27 games so this team has been playing solid for well over a month. Kyle Lohse continues to do his thing month after month and year after year. He’s 9-8 with a 3.22 ERA. He has outstanding control, a respectable 1.15 WHIP and solid numbers right across the board. When he pitches, the Brewers usually win. In fact, Milwaukee is 12-4 over Lohse’s past 16 starts. Lohse continues to give the Brewers quality innings and offers up much more value as a pooch here than Locke does as the chalk.

Our Pick
Milwaukee +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)

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Kelso 100 Mets

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Ben Burns

Detroit

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BeatYourBookie

Daily MLB Baseball Plays for Tuesday

10* Play Detroit -190 over Oakland (MLB TOP PLAY)
7:00 PM EST
Justin Verlander is 99-39 when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher
Justin Verlander is 84-54 when pitching in the 2nd half of the season


10* Play Kansas City -135 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)
8:00 PM EST
James Shields is 51-30 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
James Shields is 28-19 in road games the last three seasons