Tweet
sPORSWAGERS MLB
Today's Free Picks for Aug 29, 2013
L.A. Angels @ TAMPA BAY
L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103
1:10 PM EST. Jason Vargas missed almost two months of action after undergoing surgery on a blood clot. He has made three starts since his return and was whacked in the first two back against the Yanks and Astros, not exactly the cream of the crop. Vargas was solid in his last start but that was at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field in Seattle at a time the Mariners were struggling at the plate. Vargas has made no noticeable skills gains. He's been the same mediocre pitcher four years running and he now faces a Rays’ squad that his second in the majors with a .279 team batting average against southpaws. In eight road starts, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 47.1 IP and his chances for success here are slim.
The fact that Jake Odorizzi is a -152 favorite here strongly suggests that the oddsmakers expect the Rays to score some runs because Odorizzi is surely going to give up something. Odorizzi has made four appearances this season with three of those coming as a starter. He’s allowed 22 hits and 12 runs in 18 innings. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher and that has resulted in three balls leaving the yard and plenty more coming damn close. Odorizzi has a BAA of .297, a WHIP of 1.44 and while he has upside to be sure, he’s not major-league ready yet. He is often guilty of overthrowing and elevating his heater and has been completely inefficient with gunning for Ks as opposed to pitching to contact. He was called up in May to fill-in for David Price and he’s doing the same here, as Price’s start has been pushed back a day. We’re not asking for anything crooked here. Both these offenses are more than capable of putting up some runs while both these pitchers have at least a 50% chance each of blowing up.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
Cleveland @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1½ +156 over Cleveland
The Indians offense has checked out a month early. Cleveland has scored twice so far in this series and over their past 15 games they are hitting a putrid .214. Over that aforementioned 15-game stretch, Cleveland has faced a bevy of very mediocre pitchers that include, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, A.J. Griffin, Liam Hendricks, Nathan Eovaldi and Sam Deduno to name a few. Struggling to hit the ball, the Tribe will now face a pitcher in Atlanta that they have a combined nine AB’s against in their careers. Kris Medlen is shaping himself up for another strong finish. His post-All-Star break skills have been elite with eight K’s per nine innings and just 1.4 walks per 9 IP. Since the break, Medlen also has a 51% groundball rate and everything is his skill set is trending in the right direction. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Medlen has walked just five batters while striking out 24. He has an xERA of 2.96 since the break with a miniscule 25% fly-ball rate.
Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the rare starters whose skills are much better against opposite-sided batters. Check out his stats and skills vs. LH bats: 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.8/3.4 K/BB per 9 IP, 40% groundball rate. His control falls apart against righties: 4.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and seven walks per nine innings. Atlanta is loaded with right-handed batters and that spells trouble for Jimenez. Jimenez is coming off a 10 K performance against the Twins but trust us when we tell you it was not a thing of beauty. He escaped many jams that day and need 114 pitches to get through six innings. He was constantly behind in the count. Those 114 pitches he threw tied a season high. The last time Jimenez threw 114 pitches, he was whacked for eight hits five innings in his subsequent start while walking three. Cleveland has dropped three of Jimenez’s last four games by scores of 10-0 to Miami, 7-2 to the Angels and 5-1 to the Twinkies. Why should we believe this one to be any different?
Our Pick
ATLANTA -1½ +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 29, 2013
L.A. Angels @ TAMPA BAYL.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103
1:10 PM EST. Jason Vargas missed almost two months of action after undergoing surgery on a blood clot. He has made three starts since his return and was whacked in the first two back against the Yanks and Astros, not exactly the cream of the crop. Vargas was solid in his last start but that was at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field in Seattle at a time the Mariners were struggling at the plate. Vargas has made no noticeable skills gains. He's been the same mediocre pitcher four years running and he now faces a Rays’ squad that his second in the majors with a .279 team batting average against southpaws. In eight road starts, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 47.1 IP and his chances for success here are slim.
The fact that Jake Odorizzi is a -152 favorite here strongly suggests that the oddsmakers expect the Rays to score some runs because Odorizzi is surely going to give up something. Odorizzi has made four appearances this season with three of those coming as a starter. He’s allowed 22 hits and 12 runs in 18 innings. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher and that has resulted in three balls leaving the yard and plenty more coming damn close. Odorizzi has a BAA of .297, a WHIP of 1.44 and while he has upside to be sure, he’s not major-league ready yet. He is often guilty of overthrowing and elevating his heater and has been completely inefficient with gunning for Ks as opposed to pitching to contact. He was called up in May to fill-in for David Price and he’s doing the same here, as Price’s start has been pushed back a day. We’re not asking for anything crooked here. Both these offenses are more than capable of putting up some runs while both these pitchers have at least a 50% chance each of blowing up.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY over 8½ +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)
Cleveland @ ATLANTAATLANTA -1½ +156 over Cleveland
The Indians offense has checked out a month early. Cleveland has scored twice so far in this series and over their past 15 games they are hitting a putrid .214. Over that aforementioned 15-game stretch, Cleveland has faced a bevy of very mediocre pitchers that include, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, A.J. Griffin, Liam Hendricks, Nathan Eovaldi and Sam Deduno to name a few. Struggling to hit the ball, the Tribe will now face a pitcher in Atlanta that they have a combined nine AB’s against in their careers. Kris Medlen is shaping himself up for another strong finish. His post-All-Star break skills have been elite with eight K’s per nine innings and just 1.4 walks per 9 IP. Since the break, Medlen also has a 51% groundball rate and everything is his skill set is trending in the right direction. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Medlen has walked just five batters while striking out 24. He has an xERA of 2.96 since the break with a miniscule 25% fly-ball rate.
Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the rare starters whose skills are much better against opposite-sided batters. Check out his stats and skills vs. LH bats: 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.8/3.4 K/BB per 9 IP, 40% groundball rate. His control falls apart against righties: 4.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and seven walks per nine innings. Atlanta is loaded with right-handed batters and that spells trouble for Jimenez. Jimenez is coming off a 10 K performance against the Twins but trust us when we tell you it was not a thing of beauty. He escaped many jams that day and need 114 pitches to get through six innings. He was constantly behind in the count. Those 114 pitches he threw tied a season high. The last time Jimenez threw 114 pitches, he was whacked for eight hits five innings in his subsequent start while walking three. Cleveland has dropped three of Jimenez’s last four games by scores of 10-0 to Miami, 7-2 to the Angels and 5-1 to the Twinkies. Why should we believe this one to be any different?
Our Pick
ATLANTA -1½ +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
UNLV @ MINNESOTA
Comment