8-31-13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, AUGUST 31 Time Posted: 2:00 p.m. EST (8/23)

Game 155-156: Massachusetts at Wisconsin (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 59.820; Wisconsin 101.858 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 42; 56 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 45; 53 Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+45); Over

Game 157-158: Central Michigan at Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 75.475; Michigan 103.334 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 28; 57 Vegas Line: Michigan by 31 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+31 1/2); Over

Game 159-160: Buffalo at Ohio State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 69.033; Ohio State 107.807 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 39; 52 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 36; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-36); Under

Game 161-162: Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 87.401; North Carolina State 90.011 Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 2 1/2; 67 Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 14; 62 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+14); Over

Game 163-164: Florida International at Maryland (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 63.357; Maryland 86.608 Dunkel Line: Maryland by 23; 44 Vegas Line: Maryland by 20; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-20); Under

Game 165-166: Northern Illinois at Iowa (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 88.871; Iowa 93.896 Dunkel Line: Iowa by 5; 48 Vegas Line: Iowa by 3; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-3); Under

Game 167-168: Temple at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 83.736; Notre Dame 108.089 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 24 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 30; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Temple (+30); Over

Game 169-170: BYU at Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BYU 92.020; Virginia 94.373 Dunkel Line: Virginia by 2 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: BYU by 3 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 171-172: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 117.625; Virginia Tech 87.834 Dunkel Line: Alabama by 30; 42 Vegas Line: Alabama by 19; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-19); Under

Game 173-174: UAB at Troy (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UAB 76.811; Troy 59.941 Dunkel Line: Troy by 3; 69 Vegas Line: Troy by 5 1/2; 63 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UAB (+5 1/2); Over

Game 175-176: Purdue at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 79.188; Cincinnati 95.647 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10; 50 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-10); Under

Game 177-178: Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.119; Western Kentucky 76.975 Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 7; 60 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+4 1/2); Over

Game 179-180: Miami (OH) at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 67.603; Marshall 87.455 Dunkel Line: Marshall by 20; 64 Vegas Line: Marshall by 17 1/2; 69 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-17 1/2); Under

Game 181-182: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 91.055; Oklahoma State 109.048 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 18; 56 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 12 1/2; 60 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-12 1/2); Under

Game 183-184: UL-Monroe at Oklahoma (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 70.886; Oklahoma 109.678 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 39; 64 Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 23; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-23); Over

Game 185-186: Texas State at Southern Mississippi (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 62.557; Southern Mississippi 71.963 Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 9 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7 1/2; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-7 1/2); Under

Game 187-188: New Mexico State at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.485; Texas 97.309 Dunkel Line: Texas by 40; 60 Vegas Line: Texas by 42; 57 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+42); Over

Game 189-190: Rice at Texas A&M (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rice 84.354; Texas A&M 121.031 Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 36 1/2; 66 Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 26 1/2; 71 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-26 1/2); Under

Game 191-192: Toledo at Florida (12:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 82.912; Florida 100.309 Dunkel Line: Florida by 17 1/2; 59 Vegas Line: Florida by 24; 56 Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+24); Over

Game 193-194: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 85.803; Arkansas 89.504 Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 3 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Arkansas by 11; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+11); Over

Game 195-196: Washington State at Auburn (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 77.054; Auburn 94.109 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 17; 54 Vegas Line: Auburn by 14; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-14); Under

Game 197-198: Idaho at North Texas (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 56.179; North Texas 74.687 Dunkel Line: North Texas by 18 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: North Texas by 14 1/2; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-14 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Penn State vs. Syracuse (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 98.095; Syracuse 89.033 Dunkel Line: Penn State by 9; 54 Vegas Line: Penn State by 7; 51 Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-7); Over

Game 201-202: Wyoming at Nebraska (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 75.015; Nebraska 106.012 Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 31; 61 Vegas Line: Nebraska by 28; 66 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-28); Under

Game 203-204: TX-San Antonio at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 68.040; New Mexico 68.133 Dunkel Line: Even; 58 Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+3); Over

Game 205-206: Georgia at Clemson (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 104.800; Clemson 105.763 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1; 76 Vegas Line: Georgia by 2; 72 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+2); Over

Game 207-208: LSU vs. TCU (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LSU 106.932; TCU 99.914 Dunkel Line: LSU by 7; 47 Vegas Line: LSU by 4; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LSU (-4); Under

Game 209-210: Boise State at Washington (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 97.295; Washington 96.349 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 1; 57 Vegas Line: Washington by 4; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+4); Over

Game 211-212: Nevada at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 79.826; UCLA 109.534 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 29 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: UCLA by 19 1/2; 66 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-19 1/2); Under

Game 213.214: Northwestern at California (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 94.781; California 90.947 Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 4; 64 Vegas Line: Northwestern by 6; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: California (+6); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (8/26)

Game 329-330: Southern Illinois at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 57.207; Illinois 81.192 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 24 Vegas Line: Illinois by 21 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-21 1/2)

Game 331-332: Elon at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Elon 56.571; Georgia Tech 100.027 Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 43 1/2 Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 46 Dunkel Pick: Elon (+46)

Game 333-334: Villanova at Boston College (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 73.185; Boston College 80.714 Dunkel Line: Boston College by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston College by 17 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+17 1/2)

Game 335-336: William & Mary at West Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 60.534; West Virginia 95.501 Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 35 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 32 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-32)

Game 337-338: Murray State at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 54.419; Missouri 95.248 Dunkel Line: Missouri by 41 Vegas Line: Missouri by 38 Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-38)

Game 339-340: Colgate at Air Force (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 59.660; Air Force 74.970 Dunkel Line: Air Force by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Air Force by 27 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colgate (+27 1/2)

Game 341-342: NC Central at Duke (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC Central 51.394; Duke 81.795 Dunkel Line: Duke by 30 1/2 Vegas Line: Duke by 33 Dunkel Pick: NC Central (+33)

Game 343-344: Nicholls State at Oregon (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 37.187; Oregon 121.060 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 84 Vegas Line: Oregon by 59 Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-59)

Game 345-346: Eastern Washington at Oregon State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: East Washington 78.722; Oregon State 103.180 Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 24 1/2 Vegas Line: Oregon State by 27 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+27)

Game 347-348: Howard at Eastern Michigan (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Howard 47.198; Eastern Michigan 70.399 Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 23 Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 17 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-17)

Game 349-350: McNeese State at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 60.827; South Florida 83.683 Dunkel Line: South Florida by 23 Vegas Line: South Florida by 20 1/2 Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-20 1/2)

Game 351-352: Old Dominion at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 73.433; East Carolina 80.177 Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: East Carolina by 15 Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+15)

Game 353-354: AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: AR-Pine Bluff 53.545; Arkansas State 96.248 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 42 1/2 Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 24 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-24)

Game 355-356: Austin Peay at Tennessee (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 45.182; Tennessee 89.997 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 45 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+50 1/2)

Game 357-358: Wofford at Baylor (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 75.954; Baylor 115.245 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 39 1/2 Vegas Line: Baylor by 28 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-28)

Game 359-360: Northern Iowa at Iowa State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 78.810; Iowa State 86.348 Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+9 1/2)

Game 361-362: Eastern Illinois at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 58.037; San Diego State 90.925 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 33 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 14 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-14 1/2)

OTHER GAMES: Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (8/26)

Albany at Duquesne (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Albany 54.090; Duquesne 51.819 Dunkel Line: Albany by 2 1/2

Georgetown at Wagner (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 46.842; Wagner 66.737 Dunkel Line: Wagner by 20

UC Davis at South Dakota (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 65.103; South Dakota 57.894 Dunkel Line: UC Davis by 7

Holy Cross at Bryant (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Holy Cross 59.008; Bryant 51.186 Dunkel Line: Holy Cross by 8

Central Connecticut State at James Madison (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Connecticut State 38.793; James Madison 73.258 Dunkel Line: James Madison by 34 1/2

VMI at Richmond (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: VMI 37.380; Richmond 75.442 Dunkel Line: Richmond by 38

Savannah State at Georgia Southern (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 25.341; Georgia Southern 85.616 Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 60 1/2

Jacksonville State at Alabama State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 65.452; Alabama State 56.849 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 8 1/2

Furman at Gardner-Webb (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Furman 53.849; Gardner-Webb 42.049 Dunkel Line: Furman by 12

Sacred Heart at Marist (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 39.254; Marist 41.586 Dunkel Line: Marist by 2 1/2

Maine at Norfolk State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Maine 72.177; Norfolk State 50.783 Dunkel Line: Maine by 21 1/2

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 66.949; South Carolina State 49.668 Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 17 1/2

Charleston Southern at The Citadel (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charleston Southern 47.746; The Citadel 69.466 Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 21 1/2

Butler at South Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Butler 38.260; South Dakota State 81.023 Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 43

Alabama A&M at Grambling State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama A&M 42.904; Grambling State 34.209 Dunkel Line: Alabama A&M by 8 1/2

San Diego at Cal Poly (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 53.755; Cal Poly 79.213 Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 25 1/2

Prairie View A&M at Texas Southern (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 46.370; Texas Southern 26.468 Dunkel Line: Prairie View A&M by 20

Stephen F. Austin at Weber State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 56.500; Weber State 62.744 Dunkel Line: Weber State by 6

Appalachian State at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 71.248; Montana 69.012 Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 2

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NCAAF Opening Line Report: Manziel worth at least 10 points

Calling this an “Opening Line Report” is a bit misleading in Week 1 of the college football schedule. Many of these spreads have been taking action for some time now.

But, for the sake of argument and for those who haven’t looked at a NCAAF spread since the BCS title game, we break down a few of the “opening lines” for the kickoff to the college season and get the low down on the odds from Las Vegas linesmaker Peter Korner.

Week 1 is the toughest set of odds to cook up, according to Korner, due to the fact oddsmakers have very little to go on for the 2013 season. Spreads and totals are based more on last year’s success, returning starters and coaches’ game plans.

“We really have no idea,” Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tell Covers. “We put out our numbers, everyone else puts out theirs and we go from there. Week 1 and 2 are the toughest because we don’t have much to go on to gauge these teams.”

Rice Owls at Texas A&M Aggies (-27, N/A)

As of this writing, I imagine Johnny Manziel in a musty interrogation room with a searing light in his face, getting grilled by the NCAA fuzz. Oddsmakers - at least the ones hanging lines on this Week 1 opener - expect the Heisman winner to be on the field Saturday.

Korner sent out Texas A&M at -28 and most books followed suit with similar numbers. The Aggies are acting like Manziel will be taking snaps but if for some reason Autograph Gate turns “Johnny Football” into “Johnny Sideline”, Korner predicts this spread could swing as many as 10 points in the other direction.

“I expect him to be penalized in some way,” he says. “If he is out, I think he’s worth at least 10 points. He’s the team’s leading passer and rusher. That’s huge. It’s a big drop off and we’ve never really seen the guys in behind him. Texas A&M would still be a big favorite, though.”

USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors (+21.5, 53.5)

Opening the season in Hawaii is more an extension of summer vacation than Week 1 of the schedule. The Trojans, for the first time in a long time, aren’t among the BCS favorites and some people may be selling Southern Cal short.

Korner sent out a suggested line of USC -23 for this Thursday night “Degenerate Special” (11 p.m. ET kickoff) and books trimmed that spread as low as -21.5. The Trojans will be without RB Silas Redd, who won’t make the trip due to a bum knee, but Korner thinks there is plenty of firepower on the USC depth chart.

“They should win big with their bench on the field,” Korner says of Southern Cal. “There will be plenty of scoring. We had the total much higher at 58.”

Southern Cal and Hawaii have played four times since 2003, topping the number in the first three meetings before staying under the 62-point total with a 49-10 USC win last season.

Georgia Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers (+2, 72)

This SEC-versus-ACC showdown is the crown jewel of the Saturday slate, pitting the No. 5 Bulldogs against the No. 8 Tigers.

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers submitted spreads of either Clemson -1 or Pick’em, eventually sending out the home side as a slight fave. The betting public is buying up the SEC representative, moving this spread to UGA -2.

“The spread isn’t going to matter in this game,” says Korner. “Whether it’s Clemson -1 or Georgia, I don’t think it will come into play. Whoever wins will cover. Georgia is the better team and would be a favorite on a neutral field but I’m not going to make them the favorite just because they’re from the SEC. 'SEC Bias', I don’t know what that means.

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Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Week 1 odds: +4.5 vs. Kentucky

An intriguing matchup not only pits instate competitors against each other but also head coaches with new jobs: Western Kentucky’s Bobby Petrino vs. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops. Western Kentucky went to a bowl game for the first time last year and Willie Taggart promptly bolted for South Florida.

Enter Petrino, who will implement his pass-happy offense under a new starting quarterback Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers’ feature running back, though, is the same. Senior Antonio Andrews rushed 304 times for 1,684 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.

Western Kentucky, which beat host Kentucky 32-31 in overtime last September, is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against the SEC and 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference dates. Petrino is 8-0 in season openers as a college head coach.

Total team: Troy Trojans

Week 1 odds: 63 vs. UAB

The over was 4-0 in Troy’s last four home games of 2012 and 6-1 in the team’s last seven contests overall. Looking back long term, the Trojans have gone over the total 21 times in their last 28 non-conference games. They host UAB Saturday and it looks like another non-conference date that should go over the total of 63.

Corey Robinson, already the most accomplished quarterback in Troy history with at 3,000 passing yards in each of his first three seasons, is back for his senior campaign. On the other side of the ball, Troy allowed 30.5 points and 443.6 yards per game last year. Its defensive unit returns only four starters, which may be a good thing in the long run, but not for Week 1 of the season. The Trojans beat the Blazers 39-29 in 2012 and another shootout can be expected.

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Dave Essler

3* N Illinois +3.5
2* La Monroe +23.5
2*Texas San Antonio +3.5
2* Texas State +7.5

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NCAAF

Week 1

Saturday's games
Top 13 games
Louisiana Tech had great year LY, going 9-3 then getting snubbed for bowl, but they lost 15 starters and HC Dykes from LY, so now Skip Holtz takes over program that covered six of last seven tries as home dog, nine of last 12 non-league games. Holtz’ teams are 20-9 vs spread in last 29 games as road dog at UCF/ECU. NC State is 9-4 as home favorite since ’10, but 3-7 in last ten non-ACC games; they’ve got new coach, new QB and six new starters on both sides of ball.

Iowa outgained Northern Illinois 268-201 in narrow 18-17 (-9) win LY, Hawkeyes’ 4th straight series win (other three by 10+); since ’06, Iowa is 16-20 as a home favorite- they’re 15-18 in last 33 non-league games, 3-6 in last nine. NIU has new coach and seven new starters on defense, but also senior QB (14 starts) and all five starters back on OL; they covered eight of last 11 tries as road dog, are 14-17 in last 31 non-MAC games. Iowa has new QB with three starters back on OL.

BYU has new QB, only 44 returning starts on OL; they lost seven starters on defense, but are 14-8 vs spread in last 22 road games, 15-13 in last 28 as a road favorite. Virginia has 16 starters back, including four (three seniors) on OL but a new QB; they’re 3-9 in last dozen games as home dog (2-6 with London), 1-7-1 in last nine non-league games. Teams haven’t met since 2000, when they split pair of close, high-scoring games, with road team winning both.

Extremely young Virginia Tech team; 27 of 71 players on travelling squad are playing first college game here, vs Alabama squad that covered seven of last eight games on neutral field and is 16-11 in last 27 non-SEC games. Tide lost three starters on OL (only 39 starts back) but have senior QB (27 starts) and seven starters back on defense. Tech has senior QB (also 27 starts); they covered only one of last four as a dog and since ’06 are 10-19-3 vs spread out of conference. Bama (-6.5) beat Tech 34-24 in opening game here four years ago.

Troy won three of last four games with UAB; Blazers lost last two visits here, 24-24/27-14. Three of last eight series games were decided by one point, with average total in last three, 60.7. UAB is 8-7 as road dog since ’10, 7-5 in last 12 non-league games; they’ve got four starters back on defense, a soph QB (8 starts) and a date at LSU next. Troy lost four starters off its OL but has senior QB (36 starts); Trojans covered only twice in last dozen tries as a home favorite.

Cincinnati has whole OL (83 starts) back from LY with three senior starters and two QBs who have started games; they’re 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 8-4 in last 12 non-league games. Purdue has eight starters back on defense and three starters back on OL (52 career starts) but only two other offensive starters back- their QB has only six career starts. Since 2006, Boilers are 15-12 as road underdogs. Both teams here have new head coaches.

Former Louisville/Arkansas coach Petrino is new HC at Western Kentucky, which has four senior starters on OL but junior QB with only one career start; Hilltoppers were amazing 16-5 vs spread as underdog under Taggart (now at USF)- they beat Kentucky 32-31 LY, despite being outgained by 50 yards- they had three previous losses vs UK, all by 10+ points. Petrino is 14-10 vs spread in last 24 games as underdog. New coach for Kentucky, which covered four of last five as road favorite and is since ’07 is 15-10 vs spread out of SEC.

Since 2008, Mississippi State is 4-13 vs spread as a road underdog, covering once in last eight tries; they’re 8-13 in last 21 non-SEC games. Bulldogs have senior QB (17 starts and all five starters back on OL (108 career starts), which gives them edge here, over Oklahoma State team that is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 non-league games; they’ve got a senior QB with only five career starts and three starters back on OL (38 career starts). Teams haven’t met since ’99; figure Houston site helps OSU, which recruits Texas more than Miss State.

Syracuse has new coach, new QB, three soph starters on OL; since ’08, they’re 19-28-1 as road dogs, but 13-7-1 in last 21 non-league games. Syracuse lost 28-7/55-13 in last two games vs Penn State (‘08/’09) happier times for Lions. PSU also has new QB but has 8 starters back on offense, three on OL; they were 6-1 as favorite LY, are 11-3 as road favorites since 2008. You figure crowd in NJ would be split, but Orange played USC here LY and game drew poorly, so PSU should have crowd edge.

Clemson has senior QB (27 starts) and four starters back on OL (64 starts); they’re 24-4 SU at home under Swinney, but since ’08 are 0-3 as home underdogs. Tigers-Georgia are old rivals playing for first time in decade; Dawgs have nine starters back on offense, with whole OL back and senior QB (41 starts) but only three back on defense-- 10 of 22 kids on Georgia’s defensive 2-deep depth chart are playing first college game (8 true frosh), bad news vs Clemson offense. Since ’09, Georgia is 7-3 as a road favorite; they’re 9-10 in last 19 non-SEC games.

LSU/TCU both have senior QBs, though Pachall (17 starts) missed LY for Horned Frogs and Mettenberger now has NFL coach (Cameron) as tutor; TCU has nine starters back on defense- they’re 12-7-1 in last 20 games as underdog, but are just 3-11-1 in last 15 non-league games. LSU is 23-31 vs spread in last 54 games as a favorite, 9-14 in last 23 non-SEC games. 7-5-1 on neutral fields under Miles. LSU lost seven starters on defense and two on OL. Each team has only one senior starter on OL. Dallas site is very close to TCU, but LSU fans travel very well.

Boise State (-5) nipped Washington 28-26 in Vegas Bowl LY, even though Huskies outgained them by 40 yards on chilly day in desert. Broncos have senior QB (13 starts) and five senior starters on OL (only two returning starters, 52 starts); they’re 3-1 as road dog under Peterson, 18-7 vs spread out of conference. U-Dub is 7-5 as home favorite under Sarkisian, 8-7 out of conference; they’ve got four returning starters (all juniors) on OL and senior QB (26 starts). Hard to give Peterson points, given his (84-8 career mark as Boise coach).

Northwestern has 8 starters back on offense with senior QB (20 starts) but only two starters back on OL (40 starts); since ’08, Wildcats are 3-7-1 as road favorites, but they’re 9-5-1 in last 15 games out of conference. Cal has new coach, new QB, three new starters on OL; since ’04 they’re 2-8 vs spread as home underdogs, 14-17 in last 31 non-league games. Wildcats lost seven starters on defense- they won wild opener 42-41 at Syracuse LY. Dykes worked wonders at Louisiana Tech, but this is just his first game at Cal.

Other Games
I’m going to give you some notes on every games, except ones with point spreads of 30+ points-- those are a waste of time.

-- Maryland is 3-0 vs FIU, with average score 27-16; Panthers are 7-5 as road dog since ’10, 13-11 in last 24 non-league games. Terps are 2-5 as home favorite under Edsall.
– Miami OH lost last four visits to Marshall by average score of 38-27; Red Hawks are 4-7 as road dogs under Treadwell (8-13 since ’09). Marshall is 5-9 in last 15 games as a home favorite.
– Oklahoma chose younger QB over runner Bell; they’re 25-15-1 as home favorites (9-9 in last 18) but have Big X rival West Virginia up next. ULM has terrific senior QB (36 starts), four starters back on OL; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a road underdog.
– Southern Miss is on third HC in three years after going 0-12 LY; since ’05, they’re 18-21 as home favorites. Texas State has four starters back on OL for former Bama coach Franchione, who is 3-4 as road dog at TSU

– Rice has senior QB (22 starts) and all five starters back on OL (86 starts); they were 4-0 as road dogs LY. Since ’09, Texas A&M is 13-9 as home favorite- Manziel is suspended for first half of this game. No iidea how Aggies will respond to the circus surrounding him.
– Toledo has senior QB (14 starts), four starters back on OL (78 starts); they’re 9-3 in last 12 games as road dogs. Florida plays Miami next; they’ve got junior QB (12 starts) and 104 returning starts on OLK- they’re 11-13 in last 24 games as a home favorite.
– Malzahn’s first Auburn team has highly-touted JC QB making debut here; they’re 17-22 as home favorite since ’05, 14-22 out of SEC and are very thin on defense. Washington State has junior QB, four starters back on OL in Leach’s second year there- Coogs are 16-12 vs spread in last 28 games as an underdog.
– Since 2005, North Texas is 4-11 as a favorite, but they’re 3-1 as a home favorite under McCarney. Idaho is 12-10 as a road dog, 13-8 in last 21 non-league games.

– Wyoming covered 15 of last 19 tries as road dogs, but Nebraska has four senior starters on OL and senior QB (38 starts). Huskers are 17-16 as home favorite under Pelini; they pounded Cowboys 38-14 (-21) LY.
– New Mexico was 3-0 as favorite under Davie LY; he has four starters (107 starts) back from OL but has young QB (4 starts). UTSA covered five of its six road games LY; they’ve got four junior starters on OL (83 career starts).
– New coach for Nevada, which has junior QB (20 starts); they’re 9-7 in last 16 games as road dogs. UCLA has soph QB (14 starts), four starters back on OL but no seniors—they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorite, but 19-11 in last 30 non-league games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

Virginia +3

So Mississippi -7

New Mexico -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

2 Units Kentucky -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

Early Bird Play - North Texas -14½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index
Week 1 Scores/Predictions

Saturday, August 31, 2013

FBS Non-Conference
Villanova at BOSTON COLLEGE, 12:00 pm ET BOSTON COLLEGE 21.7, Villanova 19.3
Purdue at CINCINNATI, 12:00 pm ET CINCINNATI 37.5, Purdue 20.7
Elon at GEORGIA TECH, 12:00 pm ET GEORGIA TECH 48.9, Elon 7.2
Southern Illinois at ILLINOIS, 12:00 pm ET Southern Illinois 20.1, ILLINOIS 15.2
Buffalo at OHIO STATE, 12:00 pm ET OHIO STATE 41.7, Buffalo 6.7
William & Mary at WEST VIRGINIA, 12:00 pm ET WEST VIRGINIA 45.7, William & Mary 18.9
Massachusetts at WISCONSIN, 12:00 pm ET WISCONSIN 49.0, Massachusetts 2.5
Toledo at FLORIDA, 12:21 pm ET FLORIDA 37.0, Toledo 12.8
Fiu at MARYLAND, 12:30 pm ET MARYLAND 29.5, Fiu 20.6
Louisiana Tech at NC STATE, 12:30 pm ET NC STATE 46.1, Louisiana Tech 40.8
Rice at TEXAS A&M, 1:00 pm ET TEXAS A&M 52.6, Rice 18.1
Colgate at AIR FORCE, 3:00 pm ET Colgate 35.3, AIR FORCE 33.2
Northern Illinois at IOWA, 3:30 pm ET Northern Illinois 30.0, IOWA 17.9
Central Michigan at MICHIGAN, 3:30 pm ET MICHIGAN 41.8, Central Michigan 13.3
Temple at NOTRE DAME, 3:30 pm ET NOTRE DAME 38.9, Temple 4.5
Mississippi State at OKLAHOMA STATE, 3:30 pm ET Oklahoma State 45.4, Mississippi State 27.9
Syracuse at PENN STATE, 3:30 pm ET Syracuse 26.4, Penn State 23.5
Byu at VIRGINIA, 3:30 pm ET Byu 25.7, VIRGINIA 13.7
Louisiana-Lafayette at ARKANSAS, 4:00 pm ET ARKANSAS 34.7, Louisiana-Lafayette 26.6
North Carolina Central at DUKE, 4:00 pm ET DUKE 48.1, North Carolina Central 17.1
Nicholls State at OREGON, 4:00 pm ET OREGON 84.4, Nicholls State 0.0
Virginia Tech at ALABAMA, 5:30 pm ET Alabama 35.8, Virginia Tech 4.2
Howard at EASTERN MICHIGAN, 6:00 pm ET EASTERN MICHIGAN 35.5, Howard 23.7
Eastern Washington at OREGON STATE, 6:00 pm ET OREGON STATE 43.5, Eastern Washington 26.9
Austin Peay at TENNESSEE, 6:00 pm ET TENNESSEE 59.3, Austin Peay 14.9
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at ARKANSAS STATE, 7:00 pm ET ARKANSAS STATE 40.3, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 8.8
Washington State at AUBURN, 7:00 pm ET AUBURN 27.6, Washington State 23.8
Old Dominion at EAST CAROLINA, 7:00 pm ET Old Dominion 48.9, EAST CAROLINA 43.4
Miami (Ohio) at MARSHALL, 7:00 pm ET MARSHALL 46.5, Miami (Ohio) 36.1
Murray State at MISSOURI, 7:00 pm ET MISSOURI 54.5, Murray State 28.6
Idaho at NORTH TEXAS, 7:00 pm ET NORTH TEXAS 32.9, Idaho 23.0
Ulm at OKLAHOMA, 7:00 pm ET OKLAHOMA 50.9, Ulm 17.8
McNeese State at SOUTH FLORIDA, 7:00 pm ET SOUTH FLORIDA 25.7, McNeese State 15.3
Texas State at SOUTHERN MISS, 7:00 pm ET Texas State 36.7, SOUTHERN MISS 31.7
Uab at TROY, 7:00 pm ET TROY 42.6, Uab 31.4
Kentucky at WESTERN KENTUCKY, 7:00 pm ET Western Kentucky 23.2, Kentucky 21.0
Wofford at BAYLOR, 7:30 pm ET BAYLOR 46.6, Wofford 18.0
Georgia at CLEMSON, 8:00 pm ET Georgia 34.5, CLEMSON 31.6
Northern Iowa at IOWA STATE, 8:00 pm ET IOWA STATE 27.6, Northern Iowa 17.8
Wyoming at NEBRASKA, 8:00 pm ET NEBRASKA 44.2, Wyoming 21.1
Utsa at NEW MEXICO, 8:00 pm ET NEW MEXICO 29.5, Utsa 29.5
Eastern Illinois at SAN DIEGO STATE, 8:00 pm ET SAN DIEGO STATE 46.5, Eastern Illinois 17.2
New Mexico State at TEXAS, 8:00 pm ET TEXAS 56.5, New Mexico State 7.7
Lsu at TCU, 9:00 pm ET Lsu 24.0, Tcu 17.7
Nevada at UCLA, 10:00 pm ET UCLA 49.1, Nevada 29.4
Boise State at WASHINGTON, 10:00 pm ET WASHINGTON 24.3, Boise State 23.4
Northwestern at CALIFORNIA, 10:30 pm ET Northwestern 38.1, CALIFORNIA 18.7

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Alabama A&M at GRAMBLING, 7:00 pm ET Alabama A&M 26.5, GRAMBLING 17.5
Prairie View A&M at TEXAS SOUTHERN, 8:00 pm ET Prairie View A&M 36.3, TEXAS SOUTHERN 20.7

FCS Non-Conference
Campbell at CHARLOTTE, 12:00 pm ET CHARLOTTE 48.4, Campbell 6.8
Albany at DUQUESNE, 12:10 pm ET Albany 33.0, DUQUESNE 20.9
Georgetown at WAGNER, 1:00 pm ET WAGNER 22.8, Georgetown 7.3
Holy Cross at BRYANT, 3:00 pm ET Holy Cross 24.6, BRYANT 23.6
UC Davis at SOUTH DAKOTA, 3:00 pm ET UC Davis 26.8, SOUTH DAKOTA 22.1
Jacksonville State at ALABAMA STATE, 6:00 pm ET Jacksonville State 29.6, ALABAMA STATE 27.0
Furman at GARDNER-WEBB, 6:00 pm ET Furman 35.5, GARDNER-WEBB 18.7
Savannah State at GEORGIA SOUTHERN, 6:00 pm ET GEORGIA SOUTHERN 61.3, Savannah State 0.0
Central Connecticut State at JAMES MADISON, 6:00 pm ET JAMES MADISON 42.6, Central Connecticut State 16.6
Sacred Heart at MARIST, 6:00 pm ET MARIST 17.9, Sacred Heart 15.4
Maine at NORFOLK STATE, 6:00 pm ET Maine 32.8, NORFOLK STATE 3.3
Vmi at RICHMOND, 6:00 pm ET RICHMOND 44.3, Vmi 0.0
Coastal Carolina at SOUTH CAROLINA STATE, 6:00 pm ET Coastal Carolina 35.0, SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 18.9
Charleston Southern at THE CITADEL, 6:00 pm ET THE CITADEL 34.8, Charleston Southern 15.3
Houston Baptist at SAM HOUSTON STATE, 7:00 pm ET SAM HOUSTON STATE 58.4, Houston Baptist 2.1
Butler at SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, 7:00 pm ET SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 35.9, Butler 3.8
San Diego at CAL POLY, 7:05 pm ET CAL POLY 33.6, San Diego 19.3
Stephen F. Austin at WEBER STATE, 8:00 pm ET WEBER STATE 33.5, Stephen F. Austin 31.7
Appalachian State at MONTANA, 9:00 pm ET Appalachian State 31.9, MONTANA 30.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks/Kevin

CFB Week 1
UL Lafayette @ Arkansas - [193] UL LAFAYETTE +10.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NorthCoast

Power Plays Newsletter

4* #159 Buffalo
4* #168 Notre Dame
4* #172 Va Tech
2* #177 Kentucky
2* #180 Marshall
3* #182 Ok.St
3* #184 OU
4* #186 Southern Miss
3* #188 Texas
4* #191 Toledo
4* #194 Arkansas
4.5* #198 North Texas
4.5* #210 Washington
4* #214 California

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST

POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER

4* Florida State

3* Washington U

3* Utah U

2* Florida Atlantic

2* S.M.U.

2* Ohio State/Buffalo - (Under)

Underdog Play Of The Week --- Toledo

Technical Play Of The Week --- U.C.L.A.

Revenge Play Of The Week --- Utah U

Situational Play Of The Week --- C.Michigan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

2* Alabama
2* Buffalo
2* N Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

10* Enforcer - Washington Huskies