9-2-13

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northcoast

4 star late phone

florida state-10

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STATFOX

PLATINUM SHEET

Stat Fox Forecaster:
Florida State 28
Pittsburgh 21

• Jimbo Fisher is 21-11 UNDER as a favorite as coach of FLORIDA ST.
• FLORIDA ST is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of FLORIDA ST’S last 9 games on the road.

Game Breakdown: FSU and Pitt haven’t played in 30 years. The Noles hope new starting QB Jameis Winston can live up to his potential—he’ll be surrounded by playmakers in the receiving corps. RBs Devonta Freeman and James Wilder combined for 1,300 rushing yards and 19 TDs last year. FSU is replacing their D-line in front of an impressive back seven.

Pitt’s offense is a mess, with transfer Tom Savage under center, no experience at RB and a dicey line. The Panthers nasty D returns nine starters, and should be a strength in 2013.

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Norm Hitzges

Single Play

Florida St. -10 1/2 Pittsburgh

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Pittsburgh enters ACC on Monday vs. No. 11 FSU
By: Brian Graham

Kickoff: Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -10, Total: 49.5

Pittsburgh will make a loud entrance into the ACC when it hosts No. 11 Florida State on during Monday's Labor Day holiday.

FSU and Pitt haven’t played in 30 years with the Seminoles having lost three straight to the Panthers since beating them in 1980. Florida State believes redshirt freshman QB Jameis Winston can live up to his potential, as he’ll be surrounded by playmakers in the receiving corps. He'll also have a great ground game to rely on, as RBs Devonta Freeman and James Wilder combined for 1,300 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns last year. FSU has an impressive back seven, but is replacing its entire defensive line. Pitt’s offense is a mess, with Rutgers and Arizona reject Tom Savage replacing Tino Sunseri under center, no experience at running back and a dicey offensive line. However, the Panthers' nasty defense returns nine starters, and should be a strength in 2013. Florida State really struggled last year, both away from home (1-6 ATS) and in the favorite role (5-9 ATS), and is just 13-21 ATS (38%) in ACC play since 2009. In the past two seasons, Pittsburgh has been a strong home wager (9-5 ATS) and has also enjoyed the underdog role (8-4 ATS).

FSU tallied 39.3 PPG last season, good for 10th in the nation. Last year's QB EJ Manuel, who is now playing in the NFL, won’t be easy to replace, but some people think QB Jameis Winston (13-of-15, 205 yds, 2 TD in spring game) could eventually be even better than Manuel. FSU’s best WR Rashad Greene (741 rec. yds, 6 TD) is also a star punt returner (15.4 avg, 3rd in FBS), while WRs Kenny Shaw (532 rec. yds) and Kelvin Benjamin (495 rec. yds, 4 TD) are both very reliable. Green has been bothered by an injured finger, but he is expected to play on Monday night. The ‘Noles will remain run-heavy (206 YPG, 24th in FBS) with junior RBs Devonta Freeman (660 rush yds, 8 TD) and James Wilder Jr. (640 rush yds, 11 TD) rumbling behind an experienced offensive line. New defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt did a fantastic job coaching Alabama’s secondary, and has plenty of talent in the back seven, such as DBs Lamarcus Joyner and Terrence Brooks (51 tackles each), and LB Christian Jones (95 tackles). The Seminoles led the nation in pass defense (162 YPG), finished second in total defense (254 YPG), third in rushing defense (92 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.7 PPG). But FSU lost top CB Xavier Rhodes plus all four D-Line starters, including ACC sack leaders Bjoern Werner and Cornellius Carradine. This is not a team that forces too many turnovers, tying for 90th in FBS with a mere 1.5 takeaways per game.

Pittsburgh enters its first ACC campaign with an offense in shambles. The team's top two offensive players, QB Tino Sunseri and RB Ray Graham, both graduated. Then over the summer, highly-touted RB Rushel Shell, who this offense was supposed to revolve around, transferred to UCLA. After feeling homesick and wanting to be closer to his twin children, he asked to return to Pittsburgh, but wasn't accepted back so he landed with West Virginia. Not all is dire though, as WR Devin Street (975 rec. yds, 5 TD) is a star, and he will be catching passes from 23-year-old senior QB Tom Savage (16 TD, 10 INT at Rutgers) who hasn't played a down in almost three years. Unproven junior RB Isaac Bennett (87 carries, 4.3 YPC in career) should get the bulk of the carries. The nation’s 17th-best defense (331 YPG) is in great shape for new defensive coordinator Matt House, as nine starters return. House oversaw Pitt’s excellent secondary last year (194 pass YPG, 20th in FBS). DT Aaron Donald (18.5 TFL) is a beast, MLB Shane Gordon (6 PD) does it all, and S Jason Hendricks rarely makes mistakes (90 tackles, 6 INT).

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Double Dragon Sports

Florida State

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Z Money Sports

Florida State

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 3-2, 1.73 in his last five starts.
-- Morton is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts. Thornburg is 0-0, 1.50 in three starts this season.
-- Kershaw is 3-1, 1.21 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 2-0, 2.00 in his last six starts. Strasburg is 1-0, 2.60 in his last five.

-- White Sox won last three Quintana starts (1-0, 3.80).
-- Duffy is 2-0, 0.00 (12.2 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Masterson is 1-0, 2.13 in his last two starts. Norris is 1-0, 2.20 in his last three road starts.
-- Clemens allowed one run in six IP in his first '13 start.
-- Holland is 1-0, 2.18 in his last five starts.
-- Archer is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts. Angels won four of five Richards home starts (2-0, 3.90).

Cold pitchers
-- Matsuzaka is 0-2, 8.68 in two starts this season. Maholm is 0-3, 8.03 in his last five starts.
-- Wainwright is 2-3, 4.89 in his last seven starts.
-- Miami lost last five Alvarez starts (0-2, 5.74). Wood is 1-3, 4.42 in his last six starts.
-- Bettis is 0-3, 6.60 in six starts this season.
-- Zito is 0-4, 10.27 in his last six starts. Kennedy is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three.

-- Rogers is 0-3, 10.42 in his last five starts. McCarthy is 1-4, 5.47 in his last five starts.

-- Hughes is 0-4, 7.23 in his last five starts.
-- Lackey is 1-5, 3.93 in his last eight starts. Fister is 1-2, 5.70 in his last four.
-- Hernandez is 0-3, 10.29 in his last three starts.
-- Albers is 0-1, 7.11 in his last two starts.
-- Straily is 1-4, 5.32 in his last seven starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Matsuzaka 1-2; Maholm 6-22
-- Wainwright 8-28 (4 of last 8); Latos 9-27 (1 of last 8)
-- Morton 2-14 (0 of last 6); Thornburg 1-3
-- Alvarez 1-10; Wood 4-27
-- Zito 8-23; Kennedy 9-26 (0 of 5 with SD)
-- Kershaw 2-28 (0 of last 8); Bettis 4-6
-- Strasburg 6-26 (1 of last 8); Hamels 4-28 (0 of last 7)

-- Rogers 5-15; McCarthy 6-16

-- Quintana 9-27; Hughes 8-25 (3 of last 4)
-- Fister 6-27 (! of last 9); Lackey 10-24 (4 of last 7)
-- Hernandez 4-28 (1 of last 15); Duffy 1-3
-- Albers 1-4; Clemens 0-1
-- Norris 10-27 (3 of last 4); Masterson 5-28
-- Holland 4-27; Straily 5-22
-- Archer 3-17; Richards 2-11

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six St Louis road games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Milwaukee games.
-- Six of last eight Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight San Diego games stayed under total.
-- Last three games at Coors Field went over the total. Four of Dodgers' last five games stayed under.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Washington games.

-- 15 of last 20 Toronto games stayed under the total.

-- Nine of last thirteen White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Minnesota games, seven of last eight Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last twelve Oakland games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Angel games.

Hot teams
-- Atlanta won six of its last seven games. Mets won three of their last four.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last twelve games. Rockies won six of their last nine games.
-- Nationals won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Arizona won six of its last nine home games. Toronto won five of last seven.

-- Bronx won nine of its last fourteen games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight games; Detroit won three of last four.
-- Royals won six of their last eight games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine games; Texas won four of last six.
-- Angels won eight of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost six of their last nine games. St Louis lost three of last four.
-- Milwaukee lost six of its last seven home games. Pirates are 3-5 in their last eight games overall.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last twelve games. Cubs lost eight of last twelve.
-- San Diego lost five of its last six games. Giants are 6-8 in their last 14.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.

-- White Sox lost their last three games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven games. Houston lost six of last eight.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games. Orioles lost seven of their last nine away games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last eight games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at LA Angels

The Rays look to snap a four-game losing streak and take advantage of an Angels team that is 0-7 in its last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 14.649; Atlanta (Maholm) 16.133 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Over

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.217; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.408 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.663; Milwaukee (Thornburg) 15.711 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under

Game 907-908: Miami at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.137; Cubs (Wood) 15.534 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A

Game 909-910: San Francisco at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.389; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.784 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); Under

Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.932; Colorado (Bettis) 16.366 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Over

Game 913-914: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.100; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.132 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 5 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.909; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.581 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 917-918: Detroit at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.365; Boston (Lackey) 15.321 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under

Game 919-920: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.747; Kansas City (Duffy) 14.375 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Albers) 14.082; Houston (Clemens) 15.156 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Over

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 14.604; Cleveland (Masterson) 16.085 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.179; Oakland (Straily) 15.014 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under

Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.514; LA Angels (Richards) 15.207 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Over

Game 929-930: Toronto at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rogers) 13.957; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.374 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-150); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at Atlanta

The Sparks look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is coming off an 85-68 loss at Chicago and is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU defeat. Los Angeles is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Atlanta (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 116.541; Atlanta 112.712 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 160 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 155 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2); Over

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Today's CFL Picks

Edmonton at Calgary

The Stampeders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 September games. Calgary is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 21. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/1)

Game 235-236: Edmonton at Calgary (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 106.793; Calgary 127.646 Dunkel Line: Calgary by 21; 53 Vegas Line: Calgary by 8; 57 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8); Under

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Cappers Access

(CFB) Pittsburgh +11

(MLB) Royals +120

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1089-819(57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 7-2 run MON: College Pittsburgh + 11 1/2

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Red Sox -140

Kansas City -115

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CFL

Week 10

Edmonton (1-7) @ Calgary (6-2)—Stampeders were 4-0 vs provincial rivals LY, with three wins by 3 or less points; they’re 12-3 in last 15 series games, winning seven of last nine played here, with five of those seven wins by 23+ points. Eskimos lost last six games but covered last two, pair of losses by FG each; they’re 2-2 as road dogs this year, losing on foreign soil by 10-5-3 points, with win at Hamilton. Calgary is 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 12-11-15 points (3-0 as home favorites); dogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine series games played here. Five of six Stampeder wins this year are by 11+ points; they’re +9 in turnovers the last four weeks, with seven takeaways in last two games. Four of last five series games went over total, as did seven of eight Edmonton games this season.

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MLB

Monday, September 2

September good/bad month pitchers

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September.

On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Homer Bailey (11-5)

If Cincinnati is going to catch Pittsburgh or St. Louis in the NL Central or host the Wild Card game, they will need Bailey to close strong like he has in other September’s in the past. Bailey is at his best when he is focused and gets his arm in the right slot, which adds speed to his fastball and improves his cutter.

Joe Blanton (11-2)

Has been taken out of the starting rotation after compiling a 2-14 record and 6.12 ERA.

Trevor Cahill (12-3)

The right-hander has largely been ineffective all year (5-10, 4.39 ERA) and it is difficult to imagine he will make many positive contributions to Arizona in the final month of the season in spite of his past.

Doug Fister (10-5)

Except for a rough period in early July, Fister has been consistent, giving the Detroit offense a chance by keeping his team in games. When he’s on, Fister’s two-seam sinks, the big curveball breaks downward and the change-up fades from right-hand hitters.

Yovanni Gallardo (12-4)

Having the worst year of his career due to losing 2-3 MPH on his fastball. After four straight years of 200+ strikeouts, sitting at 114 entering this month playing on a mediocre club.

Freddy Garcia (7-3)

On August 23 was traded from Baltimore to Atlanta. Most likely mop-up duty for the Braves, if and when he sees the mound.

Gio Gonzalez (12-4)

After a 21-win season a year ago, Gonzalez has come back to career norms. If the left-hander is to finish with a flourish, he will have to do better than have a 1.94 difference in road/home ERA like he has this year.

Mark Guthrie (10-4)

Since his complete game back on August 5, Guthrie has allowed 38 hits over 24 innings and has not fooled many batters. Needs to get back on track where his pitchers were sinking consistently in the strike zone in the first part of the season.

Roy Halladay (11-4)

After missing three and half months, Halladay has started twice and seen his ERA sink to a still unsavory 7.94. At 36 with continued shoulder and arm miseries the past few years, hard to imagine he turns into the pitcher of the past, nonetheless, he knows how to throw, which gives Harry (real first name) Halladay a chance.

Jason Hammel (7-3)

Pitched August 29 in minor stint and is hoping for comeback for the DL to help Baltimore in a return to the postseason.

Derek Holland (11-5)

A dependable starter who has a 2.78 ERA in his past 10 outings and is a true four-pitch starter. Besides a low to mid 90’s fastball, Holland ruins foes' bat speed with a quality curve and changeup. Also does one of the better Harry Carry impersonations.

Phillip Hughes (8-4)

Having a miserable campaign at 4-13 and body language suggests he lacks confidence. Nothing more than a two-pitch starter and opposing hitters sit on one pitch or the other. Might need a change of scenery unless he finds magic late.

Ian Kennedy (11-4)

After a 21-4 campaign in 2011, Kennedy is under .500 since and was dealt from Arizona while they were still in the wild card race. Has been permitting about a hit an inning the past two years after being in the 0.835 range of base knocks per three outs the previous two years. He is tough to hit when commanding both sides of the plate.

Cliff Lee (11-4)

Lack of run support has caused this veteran lefty about four wins in 2013. Lee turned 35 in late August and can still dominate on occasion, just not quite as often. Could have helped a playoff contender, instead, stuck in Philly, though he likes it there.

Rick Porcello (9-4)

Porcello lacks a real “out” pitch and has to rely on his fielders to help him. Playing in Detroit assures him of run support, but for the most part, he keeps the Tigers in games and provides them an opportunity to win.

David Price (14-3)

Price has been right since coming off the DL and has a 2.45 ERA in his past 10 starts. He owns batters in the left side of the box, who are hitting .190 against his tosses. Oddly, has an ERA almost one run lower on the road than at home which explains his bulldog intensity.

Justin Verlander (12-4)

Not having a typical year, with punch-outs down and opponents hitting a slightly slower fastball with less movement. If the Tigers are near or clinch the AL Central in the latter stages of September, might not be a bad idea for manager Jim Leyland to have Verlander miss a start.

Jered Weaver (11-4)

The Angels might be playing golf in early October; nonetheless, every five days until the end of the season, they will have a chance to win with Weaver climbing the hill. Incredibly reliable.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bruce Chen (5-11)

After being very effective out of the bullpen, manager Ned Yost needed a fifth starter and returned the veteran Chen to the rotation. He pitched well for several starts, yet recently has been batted around of late and might be tiring and have similar late season results.

Jeff Francis (2-10)

Doing one-inning stints every five to seven days since being called up by Colorado at the end of July.

Luke Hochevar (4-9)

Has worked out of the Kansas City pen almost all year and might have found a niche with a 1.86 ERA for the year.

Travis Wood (3-10)

Has pitched better than 8-10 record indicates and has 3.09 ERA, which is certainly respectable. The opposition is hitting only .214 against him; however, playing on another bad Chicago Cubs squad will not help Wood’s record no matter how well he throws.