9-2-13

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NFL line watch: Bucs fans should jump on line now

Spread To Bet Now

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New York Jets

If you're a Tampa Bay fan, you may want to jump on this line now as I believe it could climb a bit higher (note that it did open at 2.5), as the public backs the Bucs due to the QB issues surrounding the Jets.

New York's starting QB Mark Sanchez suffered a deep right shoulder bruise and has been deemed unlikely to play in the opener. That of course means that rookie Geno Smith is going to get his shot. So if Sanchez is in fact sitting, the Jets offense will be a scaled-back version with Smith under center.

With the public backing the veteran pivot, this line climbs a bit higher come gameday.

Spread To Wait On

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you're a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to game time to wager as I expect this line to climb a bit with the public jumping on the new look Chiefs (note this line opened at 3 and has since climbed to 4).

The Jags won 20-16 in Atlanta in their final warm up, coming into the regular season with some confidence and a tiny bit of momentum. Jacksonville was just 2-14 last year and needs a quick start with two "winnable" games to open the season. That said, WR Justin Blackmon will sit the first four games and the first team offense and line have yet to play together at the same time this preseason.

New Kansas City QB Alex Smith looks pretty enticing to bettors in this matchup; expect this line to creep a bit higher.

Total Watch

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (48.5)

These division opponents actually played three times in 2012. New York won 31-14 on January 1 (total stayed "under" 48). Dallas won 24-17 on October 5th (total stayed "under" 45.5). New York won 29-24 on November 28th (total went "over" 47.5). The Giants were 1-3 in the preseason, scoring 71 total points, while the Cowboys were 2-3, mustering just 78. This line is currently higher than any set in 2012. With each team's offense struggling coming into the 2013 campaign, and with a recent history of playing to tighter, lower-scoring affairs, this number is likely to drop a bit. Get down now if you like the "under", or wait if you're going to play the "over".

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College football odds: Week 2 opening line report

Beginning Thursday and finishing up Monday, Week 1 has been filled with the brand of excitement we have come to expect from NCAA ball.

But let's look ahead to Week 2 of the season. A week which boasts a few big-time matchups.

Here’s an early look at several important games, with help from Peter Korner, founder of the Las Vegas oddsmaking firm The Sports Club.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs (-6)

Georgia (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) suffered a tough 38-35 loss to Clemson as the Bulldogs opened the season on the wrong foot. Mark Richt and Co. will look to right the ship in the home opener in Athens in Week 2, but things won't get easier with the South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) in town.

"This is going to be a great game obviously," Korner told Covers. "We've got five guys that do the numbers and our range was pretty good. We were all between 5.5 and 6.5 Georgia and I put it at 6."

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)

The Irish (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) head into the Big House following a fairly lackluster performance at home against the Temple Owls. The Irish defense was not overly sharp as the Owls tallied 25 first downs and 362 total yards, running the ball effectively.

"Notre Dame had a good game, but it wasn't something that overwhelmed us," says Korner. "We did have a variety of numbers anywhere from a pick 'em to Michigan -6. That -6 kind of stood out there a little bit too far and I threw the pick 'em and the 6 away and the rest of us were at 2, 2.5 and 3.5 so we'll put it at Michigan -2.5."

Florida Gators (-2.5) at Miami Hurricanes
Florida (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) RB Mack Brown led the assault on Toledo as he rushed for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 24-6 victory over the Rockets to open the season. The competition gets ramped up a notch in Week 2 as the Gators face a tougher test versus in-state rivals The U.

"We had ranges from 1.5 up to 6.5 on Florida," said Korner. On the road here we put it just below the 3 and we've got it at Florida -2.5 and it's going to be a really competitive game. Not necessarily a high-scoring game, but it should be a 26-24 or 24-21 type of game."

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners (-19)
The Sooners (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat up on an overmatched UL Monroe squad. The Sooners defense pitched a shutout and looked like a well-oiled machine versus an experienced Warhawks offense. That's a very promising performance for Sooners fans.

"We had this as low as 14 and as high as 21," claims Korner. "The guys that had the higher numbers had the best arguments and I like the high end of this. We put out Oklahoma -19 and, basically, they shouldn't have any problem with this game."

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bookiemonsters

141-90 run

17-7-1 run last 25 plays

pod braves under 8.5

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Beat Your Bookie

10* Play Atlanta -200 over NY Mets (MLB TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST
Atlanta is 84-55 in day games the last three seasons
Atlanta is 35-18 when playing in the 2nd half of the season


10* Play San Diego -150 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)
3:30 PM EST
Barry Zito is 2-11 when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher
Barry Zito is 0-8 in road games this season with an ERA of +100 or higher

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Beat Your Bookie

10* Play Pittsburgh +10 over Florida State (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
8:00 PM EST
Florida State is 17-28 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Florida State is 11-19 ATS when playing in the 1sttwo weeks of the season

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO

Play On - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts
78-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.0% 36.0 units )
9-7 this year. ( 56.3% 0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at KANSAS CITY

SEATTLE is 15-7 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.

The average score was: SEATTLE (4.9) , OPPONENT (4.1)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA LOS ANGELES at ATLANTA

Play On - Home teams (ATLANTA) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% -2.3 units )

WNBA LOS ANGELES at ATLANTA

Play On - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) in a game involving two average defensive teams (40.5-43.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
83-41 since 1997. ( 66.9% 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA LOS ANGELES at ATLANTA

Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% 47.6 units )
8-1 this year. ( 88.9% 6.9 units )

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Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -125 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 73-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 73-76-2

Football Crusher
Pittsburgh +10.5 over Florida St
(System Record: 8-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 8-5

Soccer Crusher
Belgrano + Atletico Rafaela UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 448-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 448-388-59

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Paul Leiner

100* Pirates -130

50* Rangers -115

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JOE WIZ Free Play

Monday... In Baseball play Over 7 runs Tampa Bay and L.A. Angels

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XpertPicks

Monday Football

Play Pittsburgh +10 over Florida State
8:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 9 of the last 14 home games and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 14 games vs. conference opponents. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they averaged 36 points a game on offense at home last season.

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College football odds: Week 2 opening line report

It's certainly good to have college football back in the fold.

Beginning Thursday and finishing up Monday, Week 1 has been filled with the brand of excitement we have come to expect from NCAA ball.

But let's look ahead to Week 2 of the season. A week which boasts a few big-time matchups.

Here’s an early look at several important games, with help from Peter Korner, founder of the Las Vegas oddsmaking firm The Sports Club.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs (-6)

Georgia (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) suffered a tough 38-35 loss to Clemson as the Bulldogs opened the season on the wrong foot. Mark Richt and Co. will look to right the ship in the home opener in Athens in Week 2, but things won't get easier with the South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) in town.

"This is going to be a great game obviously," Korner told Covers. "We've got five guys that do the numbers and our range was pretty good. We were all between 5.5 and 6.5 Georgia and I put it at 6."

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)

The Irish (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) head into the Big House following a fairly lackluster performance at home against the Temple Owls. The Irish defense was not overly sharp as the Owls tallied 25 first downs and 362 total yards, running the ball effectively.

"Notre Dame had a good game, but it wasn't something that overwhelmed us," says Korner. "We did have a variety of numbers anywhere from a pick 'em to Michigan -6. That -6 kind of stood out there a little bit too far and I threw the pick 'em and the 6 away and the rest of us were at 2, 2.5 and 3.5 so we'll put it at Michigan -2.5."

Florida Gators (-2.5) at Miami Hurricanes

Florida (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) RB Mack Brown led the assault on Toledo as he rushed for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 24-6 victory over the Rockets to open the season. The competition gets ramped up a notch in Week 2 as the Gators face a tougher test versus in-state rivals The U.

"We had ranges from 1.5 up to 6.5 on Florida," said Korner. On the road here we put it just below the 3 and we've got it at Florida -2.5 and it's going to be a really competitive game. Not necessarily a high-scoring game, but it should be a 26-24 or 24-21 type of game."

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners (-19)

The Sooners (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat up on an overmatched UL Monroe squad. The Sooners defense pitched a shutout and looked like a well-oiled machine versus an experienced Warhawks offense. That's a very promising performance for Sooners fans.

"We had this as low as 14 and as high as 21," claims Korner. "The guys that had the higher numbers had the best arguments and I like the high end of this. We put out Oklahoma -19 and, basically, they shouldn't have any problem with this game."

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Clemson's win over UGA shuffles BCS Championship odds

The Clemson Tigers’ big Week 1 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs has shuffled the ACC power’s BCS Championship futures odds, moving Clemson from 25-1 to 15-1 at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

The Tigers defeated the Bulldogs 38-35 as 1.5-point home underdogs Saturday night. Georgia, which opened the season among the BCS favorites, plummets from 12-1 to 30-1 to win the national title.

Alabama, the two-time defending national title winner, had its futures trimmed after a convincing 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in Week 1. The Crimson Tide moved from +250 to +225, with Georgia’s loss sending ripples through the rest of the SEC. Texas A&M (15-1 from 12-1), LSU (25-1 from 20-1) and Florida (30-1 from 25-1) all had their odds go up a tick with Alabama’s closest competition now all but out of the national title running.

Michigan was among the more notable adjustments to the BCS futures following Week 1. The Wolverines had their priced chopped in half, jumping from 50-1 to 25-1 following a 59-9 blasting of Central Michigan on the weekend.

Oregon State came into the season as a 100-1 long shot to win the BCS title but a loss to FCS Eastern Washington knocks them to 9999-1. The same goes for Kansas State, which opened 300-1 but is now 9999-1 after falling to FCS kings North Dakota State.

Here’s a look at the full list BCS futures heading into Week 2 (courtesy of the LVH Superbook):

ALABAMA 9-4
OREGON 6
GEORGIA 30
TEXAS A&M 15
OHIO ST 9-2
LSU 20
SOUTH CAROLINA 20
FLORIDA 30
CLEMSON 15
TEXAS 15
OKLAHOMA ST 25
STANFORD 15
NOTRE DAME 40
MICHIGAN 25
USC 60
UCLA 50
FLORIDA ST 20
OREGON ST 9999
ARIZONA ST 100
NEBRASKA 30
OKLAHOMA 25
LOUISVILLE 30
BYU 9999
VIRGINIA TECH 1000
TEXAS TECH 500
ARIZONA 1000
BOISE ST 9999
MICHIGAN ST 100
UTAH 1000
TCU 500
BAYLOR 100
NORTH CAROLINA 9999
ARKANSAS 1000
WISCONSIN 60
NORTHWESTERN 300
WASHINGTON 100
FRESNO ST 200
CINCINNATI 200
VANDERBILT 9999
MISSOURI 500
OLE MISS 100
AUBURN 200
TENNESSEE 500
NORTH CAROLINA ST 1000
KANSAS ST 9999
GEORGIA TECH 1000
MISSISSIPPI ST 5000
IOWA 9999
WEST VIRGINIA 2000
FIELD 50

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North Coast

Monday Night Marquee - Under Pitt/Florida St

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Jimmy Boyd

4* (NCAAF) Florida State -10

3* (MLB) Detroit Tigers ML +120