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Wake Forest/Boston College split last 10 games; Wake won last couple meetings, 27-19/28-14- they're 3-2 in last five visits here, with losses by 3-10 points. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in series, 3-2 here. Since '07, Deacons are 7-15 as road underdogs. BC has ten defensive starters back; they were down 14-7 at half to I-AA Villanova last week, won 24-14 in game, forcing four turnovers (TY 413-355). Eagles are 3-7 in last 10 tilts as a home favorite. Both teams have experienced QBs and three senior starters on offensive line.
Home side won both Central Florida-FIU games last two years; Knights avenged upset loss in '11 with 33-20 win (-17) LY (TY 431-306). Over last decade, UCF is 9-15 as road favorite, 2-5 last two years- they've got game at Penn State next week, will probably overlook this some. FIU is 9-6 as home dog since '06, but they were 1-4 LY- they lost seven starters on both sides of ball, including all five starters on OL. UCF has one of more underrated QBs in country (Bortles, 15 starts); they averaged 11.8 yards/pass attempt last week, converted 9-14 on third down in waxing Akron 38-7 (-23.5).
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MINNESOTA) excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season, after a one run loss
76-42 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.4% 34.7 units )
14-11 this year. ( 56.0% 3.4 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets
MLB NY METS at CLEVELAND
NY METS are 17-6 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.1)
Play On - Favorites (LOS ANGELES) cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% 5.6 units )
WNBA WASHINGTON at CONNECTICUT
Play Against - Home underdogs vs. the money line (CONNECTICUT) terrible defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 75 points or more
123-39 since 1997. ( 75.9% 0.0 units )
15-4 this year. ( 78.9% 0.0 units )
WNBA INDIANA at CHICAGO
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (INDIANA) off a loss against a division rival, well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
10-1 this year. ( 90.9% 8.9 units )
2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Burnett vs Kelly
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
The Pirates and Cardinals will meet for a weekend series as they battle it out for 1st place in the NL Central. The Pirates took 2 of 3 vs Milwaukee this week to hold their position at the top of the division, while the Cardinals lost 3 of 4 in Cincinnati. These two teams met last weekend in Pittsburgh, with the Pirates taking 2 of 3 but St Louis winning when tonight's starter, Joe Kelly, took the mound. Kelly is 7-3 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. At home he is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA, as a starter he is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA (compared to 4.26 ERA out of the bullpen) and since the All Star break he is 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA. He has started twice vs Pittsburgh, both on the road, and he has allowed just 1 run over 12 innings of work. The Pirates will send A.J. Burnett to the mound who is 7-9 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. Although he has a 2.32 ERA at home it rises to 3.89 on the road where he is just 3-6. St Louis has seen Burnett 5 times this year, and although Burnett has pitched stellar vs them at home, he has allowed 7 earned runs over 10.1 innings of work in St Louis where the Cardinals are hitting .310 against him. Take note that the Cardinals are 9-2 when Joe Kelly takes the mound, while the Pirates are just 11-14 when Burnett starts. Pittsburgh is 5-12 in their last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 road starts, and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts as a favorite. The Cardinals have struggled recently on the road, but they are 6-2 in their last 8 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog, 5-0 in Kelly's last 7 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts overall. This is a huge series for St Louis at home, and I like getting them as an underdog vs Burnett who doesn't pitch as well on the road and lasted just 4.1 innings in his August 15th start in St Louis.
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