9-6-13

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Stampeders at Eskimos: What bettors need to know

Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (+3, 56.5)

Four days after they played a wild Labour Day Classic in Calgary, the Stampeders and Edmonton Eskimos will square off again on Friday, this time in Edmonton. The Eskimos staged a dramatic comeback attempt in the fourth quarter Monday, but once again fell short as Calgary won its sixth straight meeting between the provincial rivals. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly threw four touchdown passes in just over six minutes during the rally - the kind of production the Eskimos need in the first quarter, when they have not scored a touchdown since Week 2.

Bo Levi Mitchell took over at quarterback after Kevin Glenn left with an injury in the second quarter and Mitchell - who began the year as Calgary’s third-string option - did not disappoint, throwing two touchdowns and running for another. The Stampeders continue to find success on offence despite missing starting quarterback Drew Tate and leading receiver Nik Lewis and playing with a banged-up Jon Cornish, who is still the second-leading running back in the league despite recording only 60 yards on Monday after missing a game.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (7-2, 6-3 ATS): Defensive linemen Charleston Hughes and Cordarro Law ran roughshod over Edmonton’s offensive line Monday, combining for five sacks. Wide receiver Maurice Price was the latest member of Calgary’s receiving corps to fill the role of Lewis, catching three touchdown passes as part of a massive 165-yard game. Slotback Marquay McDaniel was the leading receiver two weeks ago, while wide receiver Brad Sinopoli and slotback Jabari Arthur have both proven to be capable and reliable. The biggest danger for the Stampeders appears to be complacency - their relaxed play in the fourth quarter keyed the Eskimos’ comeback.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-8, 4-5 ATS): Edmonton general manager Ed Hervey has instructed his coaching staff to indefinitely bench offensive lineman Simeon Rottier after Calgary sacked Reilly seven times, telling reporters “it wouldn’t bother me if [Rottier] didn’t play another down this year.” Thanks to his fantastic fourth quarter, Reilly threw for 246 yards Monday, bringing his season total to 2,277 - second in the league behind Hamilton's Henry Burris. Slotback Fred Stamps and wide receivers Cary Koch and Nate Coehoorn account for nearly 75 percent of that total. The Eskimos played Monday’s game without running back Hugh Charles (hamstring) or defensive end and team sack leader Odell Willis (shoulder), who are questionable for Friday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Stampeders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Edmonton.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Edmonton.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Edmonton is 0-4 at home and 0-5 against West Division opponents.

2. Calgary K Rene Paredes leads the league with 106 points.

3. The Eskimos have lost their last five games by a combined 15 points and have scored 105 of their 150 points during that span in the second half.

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CHRIS JORDAN

100 Brewers (list Lohse)

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Road Warrior Play

Friday we have the Highest Rated N.L. Central Game from a Never Lost Rare Power system and an amazing totals system that averages 14 runs per game. We also have the ACC Winner in College Football. Congrats to those with us For Thursday 3-0 Sweep. MLB System Play below.



On Friday the Late Night snacker system side is on Texas. Game 925 at 10:05 eastern. Texas has won 10 of 12 vs LA this season as they have Dominated Division play. Overall in the series Texas has won 7 of the last 8 here in Los Angeles. Texas is averaging 5 runs per game vs Leftys and 5.6 runs vs Division opponents. LA has C.J. Wilson on the mound and while he has been good at home. He has been mediocre vs Texas with an 8.63 era. M. Garza goes for the Rangers and he has won both starts vs the Angels this season. Texas has the benefit of a day off in this one and should rebound from the 11-4 loss they suffered to Oakland on Wednesday. There is also a league wide system here that plays against home teams like the Angels that are of a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent like Texas that is off a road loss by 5 or more runs. Backed with the system and the indicators above we will. Take Texas tonight. On T.G.I.F we have a Solid 3 Game pack with the Highest Rated 100% N.L.Central play this season and a superb totals system that averages and incredible 14 runs per game. We also have the Side in the ACC Game on ESPN. Last night we swept the board going 3-0. Now we are poised to start the weekend Big. Jump on now and Cash. Take Texas as a regular rated 3 unit side tonight. GC

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SB Professor MLB Early Picks 9/6

902. Chicago Cubs +108

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Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Sep 06, 2013

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Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
Milwaukee -117 over CHICAGO

Despite having a 2.74 ERA through nine starts this season, there are several warning signs surrounding Chris Rusin and his start here against Milwaukee. Rusin's 4.30 xERA indicates regression may be on the way and this is supported by poor command and a very average skill set. A 33%/22% pure quality start/disaster start also confirms the fact that there's more risk in this start than Rusin's surface stats may lead you to believe. Rusin has made just four starts at home this season and the Cubbies have lost them all. Over his 21 home innings pitched, Rusin has allowed 24 hits, walked nine and struck out 12. Rusin also has a BAA of .282 at Wrigley. Additionally, the Cubs’ 28 wins at home is the NL’s worst mark and second worst mark in the entire league, ahead of only the Astros.
Offensively, the Brewers are so much more dangerous than the Cubbies. When we look at Milwaukee’s batting line-up it’s somewhat crazy that this team is 19 games under .500. They are loaded with quality hitter’s from top to bottom and should have little trouble scoring a few against Rusin. The same can’t be said for the Cubs against Kyle Lohse. In 171 innings this season, Lohse has walked 33 batters. His outstanding control and knowledge of hitter’s make Lohse a valuable asset. In 28 games started, Loshse has lost just eight times. He comes in with a solid 3.32 ERA and 19 pure quality starts. Remember when Lohse wasn't attracting any interest from free-agent suitors last offseason? Clearly, major league teams had doubt about his ability to match his five-year performance in St. Louis. But at 34, he's been a rock in an otherwise turbulent Brewers rotation. Lohse’s pure-quality start/disaster start split is strong and shows he's a stable bet to avoid blow-ups. The same can’t be said for Rusin.



Our Pick
Milwaukee -117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.71)



N.Y. Mets @ CLEVELAND
N.Y. Mets +145 over CLEVELAND

In the traditional sense, a quality start is awarded to a starting pitcher that allows three runs or less in six innings or more. That’s about as simplistic a stat as it gets and tells is very little. You often hear us mention a pure quality start and here’s the criteria for that:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a quality start.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he gets a pure quality start, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
We point this out because Scott Kazmir has just 10 pure quality starts in 24 attempts this season. Kazmir is just as likely to throw a six-inning gem as he is of getting whacked like he has in so many other games this season. In a recent two game stretch against the A’s and Angels, Kazmir faced a combined 43 batters and induced just three groundball outs against 30 fly-ball outs. His 15% soft-hit balls rate is one of the worst marks in the majors. As a dog, Scott Kazmir may have some value but as a significant favorite in September, after missing the past two years, he has zero value.



Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)



Houston @ OAKLAND
Houston +245 over OAKLAND

We’ll absolutely take our chances with the Astros at this price against a team that struggles to score and against a very average pitcher in A.J. Griffin. Griffin is never a safe bet. In his rookie season last year he threw just 82 innings and he’s more than doubled that already this year. A sign of fatigue is issuing walks and Griffin has now walked 17 batters over his past 29 frames. Over his last five starts, Griffin has posted a 3.45 ERA but his xERA over that span is 5.18 due to a very fortunate strand rate of 84%. A.J. Griffin has one of the highest fly-ball rates in the majors and as a result, he’s allowed 33 jacks this year, which is also one of the worst marks in the game. Sure, Griffin could come up aces again here against a weak hitting road team but in no way can he and the A’s be trusted spotting a tag like this one.
The Astros have been giving the A’s some trouble. Houston came in here last night and took the opener against Sonny Gray and has now won four of the past six meetings with the A’s. That alone makes them worthy of a wager here at this price. Dallas Keuchel has become bet-worthy for the first time in his career. He features solid command and a nice groundball tilt of 54%. Keuchel’s pitch mix has evolved as follows: +9% four-seam fastballs, -7% two-seam fastballs, -7% cut fastballs, +17% sliders, -8% curveballs, -4% change-ups. He's another guy who has benefited from using his curveball less and slider more. Hitters have a .471 BA and .765 SLG against his curveball, compared to a .224 BA and .408 SLG against his slider. Keuchel’s low 18% line-drive rate is further proof that this guy has already begun to figure things out. Dallas Keuchel holds some tremendous profit potential down the stretch and we have no reservations about backing him here.



Our Pick
Houston +245 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.90)

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Hondo

NYY (mlb)
MIA (mlb)
KC (mlb)

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Ats insiders club

Fiu +24.5

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Mitch Wilson

Dog of the day: KC Royals

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Kelso

10 wake forest
15 brewers

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/6
Milwaukee Brewers -115 over the Chicago Cubs (EARLY PLAY: Game Starts at 2:20 PM EST)

(System Record: 133-5, Won last 6 games)
Overall Record: 133-118

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Jimmy Boyd

3* (NCAAF) Wake Forest +3
3* (MLB) Detroit Tigers ML -106

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington at Connecticut (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Connecticut +3.5 (-107) at 5Dimes

The Washington Mystics have far exceeded expectations off a five-win season a year ago, while the Connecticut Sun have limped their way to a 7-22 mark. Despite a losing record with just five games to play, the Washington Mystics have done enough to be playoffs bound in the weak WNBA East. The Mystics have won just six times all season on the road. Washington has had two losing streaks of four games or more, so they are far from a sure thing against anyone. The Sun lost their home game to the Mystics by just 4 points, and have a double revenge situation here, which should give them a lift at home. Play on Connecticut.

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Xpert Picks

Friday Football

Play Wake Forest +3 over Boston College
8:00 PM EST

Boston College has lost 18 of the last 25 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 16 games vs. conference opponents. Boston College has lost 10 of the last 15 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 5 consecutive games coming off a win in their last game.

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Ats lock club

4 units-Boston College -2.5

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TheSportsCapper Football

FRIDAY

100* Play UNDER 48.5 Boston College/Wake Forest (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Boston College has gone UNDER the total in 12 of the last 14 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also gone UNDER the total in 14 of the last 18 games when playing with six days or less of rest. Boston College has gone UNDER the total in 12 of the last 15 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have gone UNDER the total in 53 of the last 84 games against the spread coming off a loss against the spread in their last game.


100* Play UNDER 53 FIU/UCF (NCAA TOP PLAY)

FIU has gone UNDER the total in 7 consecutive games when playing as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points and they have also gone UNDER the total in 17 of the last 23 games coming off a loss by 17 points or more. FIU has gone UNDER the total in 13 of the last 16 games after gaining 225 or less total yards in their last game and they have gone UNDER the total in 21 of the last 35 non-conference games.

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50* Play Wake Forest +3 over Boston College (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play FIU +24.5 over UCFL (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Calgary -3.5 over Edmonton (CFL BONUS PLAY)