9-7-13

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Kevin NFLBettingPicks

CFB

Sat Sept 7th - Utah State vs Air Force- [330] AIR FORCE +10 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)


Sent earlier this week:


Fri Sept 6th - Central Florida @ Florida International - [483] CENTRAL FLORIDA -23 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)


Sat Sept 7th - Texas vs BYU - [344] BYU +7.5 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)


Sat Sept 7th - Arizona vs UNLV - [378] UNLV +10 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)


Sat Sept 7th - San Jose State vs Stanford - [380] STANFORD -26.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SamsWins

CFB
(305) Florida -3 @ (306) Miami 12pm et
Miami has 18 starters back and they are ready to win a big game on campus. Al Golden has been a very good underdog coach in his career and Miami as sprung some home upsets recently, beating Ohio State and Georgia Tech as unranked favorites over ranked teams in 2011 and then giving Florida State a test last year while easily covering a 21-point spread. Miami can play. They have a bye week next so they are going to max out in this game. I just think they have equal talent and more motivation. And getting the value with the points is too much to pass up. The Gators enter this game ranked No. 12 after dropping a few spots after week one. I'm not going to go as far as to say the Gators will be outside the national rankings come January, however this team has done nothing to earn their lofty ranking at this point. Saturday's clash between these in-state rivals should be a gritty affair with some quality defense as it always seems to be when the best from the state of Florida get together. However the luxury of having home run hitters on offense for the hometown Hurricanes is going to be huge in this game and could get out of hand if the Gators have any turnovers early.
5* Miami +3 is my pick!

(335) Duke -4 @ (336) Memphis 4:30pm et
Duke was able to stretch their legs and shake the rust off against N.C. Central last week, and they looked sharp doing it. Head Coach David Cutcliffe will have these guys ready for a road tip over to Memphis to face a shaky Tigers team. Memphis on the other hand getting ready for the season seems to be looking for any offense and where it will come from. They will lack any offensive production this year.
5* Duke -4 looks like a winner!

(365) Notre Dame @ (366) Michigan 51 8pm et
Despite Notre Dame scoring two touchdowns in the first five minutes of their game last week, we still easily collected with the under in their matchup against Temple. The Fighting Irish have been money in the bank for under bettors. Notre Dame has a terrible field goal kicker, and thus expect them to struggle inside the 30-yard line as points will not be a given, we all witnessed this last week.
5* Under 51 has to be the play!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER ANGLES Week 2 NCAA Trends & Angles

We are now one week into the 2013 college football season, and hopefully everyone survived the plethora of FCS upsets over established FBS teams in Week 1. Thankfully, many sportsbooks do not have lines on such matchups so that helped avoid a total bloodbath for bettors.

Week 2 again has a good amount of non-conference games, but there are also more conference games this week than in Week 2s of years past, probably because of more large conferences with longer conference schedules necessitating earlier starts. That is fine with us though as one of our favorite NCAA Football Trends & Angles is playing on conference underdogs during the month of September, especially on the road.

Why, may you ask? Well, blindly playing on all conference road underdogs during the month of September without any other filters is now 268-197-14, 57.6 percent since 2000! With that in mind, we will focus on some precise conference systems this week that apply to September games only. Please note that all records are since the 2000 season.

Bet on September road conference underdogs coming off an ATS loss
(112-76-4, 59.6% ATS):
Bettors can be very impressionable in the early going, easily souring on teams that either lost early or were not impressive in non-covering wins and then turn up as road underdogs. What they often fail to realize is that the teams that lost or won unimpressively often improve when getting into conference play early, either because the loss was to a better non-conference team or because the team got caught looking ahead, as conference games are the more important ones on the schedule.

Bet on September conference underdogs coming off a straight up win
(209-151-11, 58.1% ATS):
Note that this angle applies to all conference underdogs and not to only the ones on the road like the previous angle does. This one often has to do with perception as bettors that are unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team early often rely on the oddsmakers to "tell" them who the better team is and then knee-jerk to the favorite. The problem there is that the lines are the softest early in the season and conference underdogs coming off a win may simply be undervalued at this early stage.

Bet on September road conference underdogs that were underdogs in their last game
(116-84-5, 58.0% ATS):
This goes back to perception also as when bettors see a team is an underdog in two straight games, they assume that team is inferior to the opposition. However, those underdogs are much more familiar with conference opponents so they often improve simply because of better preparation.

Bet on September road conference underdogs coming off a straight up home win
(118-81-9, 58.8% ATS):
When bettors see a road underdog coming off of a home win, they often assume that the team's performance would slip once leaving the comforts of home and that the team would be favored if it were as good as it looked the previous week. Again, this is a combination of perception and a team being undervalued, possibly because home field is being given too much weight. Taking this angle one step further, a great subset has been conference road underdogs coming off of straight up and ATS home wins at 55-36-6, 60.4 ATS.

Bet on September road teams in conference games coming off an 'under'
(136-89-8, 60.4% ATS):
Many bettors like to bet flashy teams that score boatloads of points, and teams coming off an 'under' are often the very antithesis of that. However, these "boring" teams often play good defense also, which naturally gives them more value than the scoring machines that are often overvalued.

Bet against September home conference favorites coming off a straight up loss
(112-60-5, 65.1% ATS):
Bettors often tend to excuse teams coming off of a loss if the team is home, thinking that the home crowd will inspire the team to a better performance and the fact that they are favored must mean they are the better team. What bettors don't consider is that these teams could just as easily be overvalued, as one loss does not change a team's power rating much when perhaps it should, at least early in the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NCAAF - Week 2

3* ILL +8

3* BOWLING GREEN -7

4* TULANE -6

5* GOW - DUKE -4

1* PSU -24

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DHayes2

CFB

1* Utah St -9 -115

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Vegas Sports Informer

CFB
Ball State
Tulane
Under - Michigan/ND

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Norm Hitzges - Picks of the Pole

Picks of the Pole
Last week stretched over 5 days we were a total of 10-7....that brings our season record to 17-12

College Football

DOUBLE PLAY: Wyoming -28 Idaho

SINGLE PLAYS

Illinois +7 1/2 Cincy
Oklahoma -21 W. Virginia
So. Carolina +3 1/2 Georgia
Air Force +9 1/2 Utah State
Oregon -23 Virginia
Indiana -12 1/2 Navy
Texas -7 BYU
W. Kentucky +13 1/3 Tennessee
Minnesota -14 1/2 New Mexico St.
Washington +15 1/5 USC
UNLV +10 1/2 Arizona

NFL

New Orleans -3 Atlanta
Tampa Bay -3 NY Jets
Cincy +3 Chicago
Carolina +3 1/2 Seattle
San Francisco -4 1/2 Green Bay
Indy -10 Oakland
New England--Buffalo OVER 51
Tampa Bay--NY Jets UNDER 39 1/2
Dallas -3 1/2 NY Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Sheet

BALL STATE 45 - Army 20 - (1:00 EDT) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 7, and is now minus 7½. When these 2 squads
get together, it is always the overland game of the Cadets, vs the aerial attack of the Cards. Check
the Knights with a 750-386 RY edge in their last 2 games vs BallSt, while the Cardinals check in with
a 568-38 PY advantage. Result: 2 wins & covers for BSt (by 31 pts ATS in last series hoster: '11).
Wenning threw for 509 yds in those 2, & he opened this season with a 340 PY effort. Gone from the
Army attack is brilliant QB Steelman (Santiago a project). BSt is on a 13-4 ATS run, & host is 15-4
ATS in Army tilts.
RATING: BALL STATE 89



Cincinnati 44 - ILLINOIS 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 7½, and is now minus 8. Is the monkey off the
Illini back? Sure that 9-game losing skein is now history, but rest assured that one game does not a
season make. Fact of the matter is that Illinois, which ranked 98th in the land in rushing production a
year ago, managed a paltry 49 RYs vs mighty SoIllinois last week, with Scheelhaase tossing for 415
yds. However, he has always blown hot-&-cold, so check the fact that he also suffered 4 sacks.
Bearcats continue on: 53-13 SU 5 of last 6 yrs, & opening day rout of Purdue. Fully focused.
RATING: CINCINNATI 89



Western Kentucky 31 - TENNESSEE 30 - (12:20) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 14, and is still minus 14. Sure,
the Vols were successful in new head coach Jones' debut, over hapless AustinPeay. Improvement is
a must, as that Tennessee "D" has been a sieve of late, allowing 41.4 ppg in its last 9 lined games.
Not only that, but 3 consecutive losing campaigns for this formerly perennial quality program. The
guest is on a 19-8 spread run in UT games, with the dog a solid 17-7 ATS. Enter the Hilltoppers,
who've unveiled a nicely balanced "O" under Petrino. WKy has covered its LAST 11 RGs!
RATING: WESTERN KENTUCKY 88



Oregon 48 - VIRGINIA 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Oregon minus 22½, and now minus 22. A week ago, Byu repre-
sented our only Saturday setback on rated Pointwise plays, losing to this Cav squad in the final 2:39,
despite 21-14 FD & 362-223 yd advantages. Can Virginia work its home field magic for the 2nd
straight week? Forget it The Ducks are still among the most dangerous teams in the nation. Try 500
RYs & 772 RYs (no punts) in their opener vs patsy Nicholls. New coach Helfrich inherited a goldmine,
& will keep dynasty purring. Ducks are at 39.4 ppg in last 29 LGs, & Cavs have toppped 20 pts just 3
times since '11.
RATING: OREGON 88



Arkansas State 33 - AUBURN 31 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 13½, and is now minus 13. Of course the
WarEagles got off on the right foot in their opener, but squeaking past 15-pt dog WashingtonSt is
hardly a sign of an upswing, under new coach Malzahn (head man with ArkansasSt in '12). After all,
the Tigers had deficits of 363-396 in TYs & 16-28 in FDs. Thus a 2-TD chalk over a Red Wolve outfit,
which is in off a pair of 10-3 seasons, seems a bit much. ArkySt is at 33 ppg in its last 7 regular
season LGs, & won't be awed, as it has covered at Auburn, Illinois, VaTech & Oregon the last 4 yrs.
RATING: ARKANSAS STATE 88

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard | CFB Total - Saturday, Sep 7 2013 12:00PM
305 Florida / 306 Miami UNDER 48.0 Bookmaker.com double-dime bet

Analysis: 306 Florida v Florida State Under
The last 10 times the Gators faced a quality opponent 7 times the game ended with less points than the current total of this contest. The Florida offense returns 6 starters from a team that only scored 26.5 ppg a year ago. QB Driskel plays pretty well in this system but he's not known as a player who can beat you with his talent. The defense for the Gators is the reason for this play. Florida allowed 14.5 ppg a year ago and despite just 4 returning starters we look for another big season from this stop unit. Florida held down a very good offense vs Toledo last week which is hard to do regardless of who the Rockets play. Toledo had gone 36 straight games without being held to single digits and they managed just 6 against the Gators last week.
Miami brings back a whopping 18 starters this year and many feel this will be the breakout year for Al Golden. While we do believe the defense will be much improved we still have serious concerns about this offense, especially when taking on quality stop units. We are not a believer in QB Stephen Morris who only managed to complete 58.2% of his passes last year. When stepping up against good defenses last season the Hurricanes were held to 13 against Kansas State, 3 vs Notre Dame and 14 against North Carolina, while they managed 20 vs Florida State. Despite the high number of returning starters on offense we don't see that trend changing.
PLAY UNDER

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Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 7 2013 7:00PM
343 Texas -7.0(-110) Hilton vs 344 BYU double-dime bet

Analysis:
There's been a lot of early steam on the Longhorns and the move is right.

BYU can't stay with Texas' athletes. The Cougars don't have enough offense to trade points with Texas. Their recruiting has gone done since becoming an independent.

Texas has outstanding athletes on offense and now has its best quarterback, David Ash, in the past four years. The Cougars aren't used to seeing an offense this good.

The Longhorns win on the road, too, posting 11 consecutive non-conference away victories. They were 4-1 on the road last year, including posting victories against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.



Pick Made: Sep 5 2013 9:25PM PST

Stephen Nover | CFB Total - Saturday, Sep 7 2013 10:30PM
375 Washington St. / 376 Southern Cal OVER 53.5 Bookmaker.com double-dime bet

Analysis:
I see Washington State scoring a lot of points now that the Cougars are in the second year of running Mike Leach's high octane offense.

The Cougars are pass happy under Leach. Connor Halliday threw 65 times in the Cougars' opening 31-24 road loss to Auburn. He completed 35 of those for 344 yards and a touchdown. The Cougars also rushed for 120 yards and only gave up two sacks in generating 464 total yards. Halliday has his four starting receivers back from last year.

Southern Cal is going to put up a lot of points against the Cougars, who gave up an average of 30 points per game during their last 11 games last year. The Trojans' passing attack should be sharper with quarterbacks Cody Kessler and Max Wittek each getting snaps after both played last week in a 30-13 road win last week against Hawaii. They have one of the best wide receivers in the nation to throw to in Marquise Lee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor 3.0 NCAAF Picks - 9/7

Saturday 9/7
12 PM
308. Kentucky -16.5


3:30 PM
348. Missouri -16.5


7:30 PM
Arkansas St. +11


Rest of Games
335. Duke -4
363. UL Lafayette +10.5
317. North Texas St. +4
344. BYU +7
365. Notre Dame +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler CFB Week Two

Miami (OH)-Kentucky: Probably want no part of this game. Kentucky has L'ville next, which is not only a challenge but a rivalry. And the score against WKU was really not indicative of how poorly they played. Penalties galore. Miami got eaten up once Marshall woke up, but they had exactly nine first downs and allowed thirty-four. Should be sloppy game, so perhaps under.

Michigan State-South Florida: Spartans struggled far more with WMU than most thought they would, but glaring stat to me is a net of 116 passing yards. Their defense won this game and it appears it will have to win many more, and they forced four turnovers. And South Florida simply gets abused by McNeese State. I get that McNeese is a great FCS school but 53-21 at home is a bit much. McNeese had the ball for almost 35 minutes, and USF simply could not make a first down. Spartans have Youngstown on deck, so they may continue to play three deep trying to find playmakers. However, little chance of taking USF here. Under, probably.

Oklahoma State-UTSA: Welp, the Roadrunners got it done for us with a pretty balanced attack against a disciplined, if nothing else, New Mexico team. Surprisingly the Cowboys got most of it done on the ground against Mississippi State, and didn't turn the ball over. Because this at UTSA, I might make a case for the Roadrunners again if they want to give us enough points.

Houston-Temple: The Owls covered in South Bend, but only because Notre Dame let them, really. Ress pretty much lit them up passing, averaging over 15 yards a completion. First thought was what would the Cougars passing attack do to them, but it was Houston who rushed for almost 400 yards against Southern, and whose average per completion was only 6.5 yards. Not sure if that's a product of playing Southern, or a trend. I suppose, again, if there's enough points, playing at home w/Fordham next, we might think about the Owls, although Houston does have a bye week.

North Texas-Ohio: Obviously UNT after the easy win/cover at home on the up-tick and we'll have to see what Ohio does against L'ville. If we want to back the home team, it'd be better if they got killed in Louisville because we'd get better value. Mean Green clearly a team on the rise, and at home to Ball State (tough game) next week and at UGA the following week, where I do think they cover (in Athens). They'll be ready for Conference play, so perhaps a futures bet there, because they will be over valued, IMO.

Here's some of the week two SEC stuff I started last week, which were written before week ones' games. I know you want the winners. Later. Shall retrieve and add to my notes later :)

Florida at Miami: Much bigger game than many might realize, since it was UF who cancelled this rivalry several years ago. The people in Miami are also pissed because it's a Noon game, and they lobbied hard for the 7PM night game for the exposure, and of course the atmosphere. As it turns out, ABC has NASCAR that night from Richmond, and ESPN is doing the Notre Dame-Michigan game. The game is, however, sold out and was in July. Florida hasn't won in Miami in over a decade, losing the only two games played in 2003 and 2004. This WAS the look-ahead game for both teams, and both teams have a bye next week. IMO advantage 'Canes since they return so many and are at home, as opposed to Florida who had eight players (three in the first two rounds, all on defense) drafted, and six more signed as free agents with NFL teams.

South Carolina at Georgia: A game everyone's had circled since the two met last year in Columbia, in a game the 'Cocks took control of early and never let up. It was clearly the biggest National embarrassment to the 'Dawgs in some time, not just from "losing", but the "way they lost". I fully expect them to be about as motivated for this game as they were the SEC Championship game against Alabama last year. A lot of people are high on South Carolina and a lot of people are or having taken over 9.5 wins for this team, and I am not sold on it. Tough schedule mid-season w/three straight Conference road games, right before playing the only other game they may lose, to Florida, at home. This game dictates a ton, nationally. The winner is in the drivers' seat for the SEC East very early, and the loser will need help they may not get.

Missouri-Toledo: Missouri is actually one of my under-the-radar teams for this season. Franklin, although I don't think he's great, did miss the better part of five games last season. And, under Pinkel, this was a team that had gone to about seven straight Bowls prior to playing in the SEC. I just think they were totally unprepared and dealt with injuries. Not saying they've got a chance to win anything, but they will cover some games (at home v/South Carolina, IMO) that many might not expect. Toledo is a team that will also make some noise, and one that Missouri shouldn't take too lightly. If they escape Florida without serious incident, they bring back most of an offense that lost three games last year, exclusive of a Bowl meltdown against Chuckie Keaton. They lost at Arizona in OT, lost to Ball State (on the road) and at home to Northern Illinois. So, the Tigers had better not sleep on them.

Tennessee-Western Kentucky: After thumping the shit out of Austin Peay, one would think that Butch Jones has them back on the map. Let's not be too hasty here. The Vols lost everyone on offense and had no defense last season, and they have no bye. Hardly. They play at Oregon and at Florida in the next two weeks. And last season they played in Alabama (35-0) so this is far from virgin territory to this team. And of course the Hilltoppers just played at Kentucky (sort of) so they've had some test, in in a huge revenge game, as opposed to Austin Peay. Western is breaking in a new quarterback, and bring back half of what actually was a reasonable defense, considering they played in the Sun Belt Conference. I can see, however, WKY stubbing their toe here, since Butch Jones, albeit without much talent, will have Tennessee at least playing error-free football. That's one reason I do lean to the under here.

Vanderbilt-Austin Peay: Well props to Austin Peay for trying here. But, with Vanderbilt's issues and a game against South Carolina next week, Austin Peay covering what will surely be a big number is far from out of the question. Let's not forget they covered +52 at Virginia Tech last year, so again, they won't be overwhelmed here at all. This will be rare air for the Commodores, being favored by this much, although last season they were -33 to UMass and won by 42. Probably too close for comfort, and there is simply no chance of me taking Vanderbilt here, no matter what the number is.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

FB off to nice 15-6 start

4* B.Green -6.5

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Larry Ness

Legend - Ohio

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ASA

5 USC over
4 Kansas St
3 Syracuse