9-7-13

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Donahue Sports Ball St -8

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB UTAH ST at AIR FORCE

Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

CFB UTAH ST at AIR FORCE

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (UTAH ST) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season
41-17 since 1997. ( 70.7% 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

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Inside The Press Box/Phil Steele

CFB BEST BETS

Air Force
Tulane
Texas
Penn St.
USC

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NASCAR Concludes Regular Season Saturday Night
By: Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Federated Auto Parts 400

Saturday, September 7 – 7:00 p.m. EDT
Richmond International Raceway – Richmond, VA
The last race before the Chase for the Cup takes place Saturday night in Richmond, the third straight night race for the NASCAR circuit. Seven different drivers will secure a spot in the Chase with a win in this race -- Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Newman. Defending points champion Brad Keselowski, Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard are all still mathematically alive for a berth in the NASCAR playoffs. Richmond International Raceway is a 0.75-mile short track built as a D-shaped oval with varying degrees of banking from 2 to 14.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch 5-to-1
Matt Kenseth 7-to-1
Brad Keselowski 7-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 7-to-1
Kasey Kahne 8-to-1
Jeff Gordon 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Denny Hamlin 12-to-1
Clint Bowyer 12-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Joey Logano 18-to-1
Carl Edwards 18-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-to-1
Brian Vickers 25-to-1
Greg Biffle 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 40-to-1
Mark Martin 60-to-1
Juan Montoya 60-to-1
Jamie McMurray 75-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Kyle Busch (5/1) - Although he's the favorite, how can you not put a wager on Busch at this short track? In his past nine starts in Richmond, he has four wins, two runner-ups, a 5th-place finish and a 6th-place finish. In total, Busch has top-5 finishes in 12-of-17 (71%) career starts at Richmond, and 28 career top-5's in 52 starts on short tracks. He’s also been racing extremely well heading into racing's second season with two wins in his past four starts and top-8 showings in eight of his past 13 races. The payoff isn’t too exciting, but the smart play on Saturday night is definitely the No. 18 car.

Clint Bowyer (12/1) - The defending champion of this fall race has already clinched a spot in the Chase, so he'll go all out to win at this track for the third time since 2008. Bowyer also finished second at this track in April, marking his sixth top-7 finish in his past eight Richmond races and lowering his career average finish to 9.1 at this venue. His average finish this season has been 11.8 thanks to 11 top-6 showings, five of which have occurred in his past 10 races. With double-digit odds, Bowyer is certainly worthy of a sizable wager here.

Jeff Gordon (10/1) - One of many desperate drivers, Gordon also needs this win for a shot at making 2013 a meaningful campaign. He has put himself in this position with four strong finishes in his past six starts -- 7th at Brickyard, 2nd at Pocono, 7th at Bristol and 2nd at Atlanta last week. Although Gordon hasn’t won at Richmond since 2000, he’s been awfully close recently with a pair of runner-ups and two third-place showings in his past eight starts on this track. Gordon's odds are favorable enough to justify a small wager here.

Martin Truex Jr. (20/1) - Truex Jr. continues his late-season surge, banging out four top-3's in his past 11 starts despite crashing twice during this span. One of those came last week in Atlanta. Although Truex has never won on a short track, he does have five career top-5 finishes at this length. His Richmond history isn't checkered with much success, but three straight starts of ninth or better is at least something to build on. He also tested on this track, which can only improve his chances. Don’t wager more than a unit on this darkhorse, but increasing that unit 20 times is not too shabby of a payoff.

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NASCAR Betting Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview

Richmond International Raceway will play host to a nerve-wracking Federated Auto Parts 400. There are plenty of talented drivers yet to qualify for the Chase, but not enough spots for all of them.

Here is our betting preview.

Favorite: Kyle Busch (5-1)

Kyle has raced extremely well at Richmond winning four times in 17 starts at the .75 mile oval track. Busch, who is fifth in the standings, won last week in Atlanta and a victory at Richmond would tie him for the top Chase seed.

Live dog: Martin Truex, Jr. (20-1)

Truex, Jr. will need to put in a strong performance to qualify for the Chase and a victory Saturday would basically see the New Jersey native advance. Truex finished 17th at Richmond earlier in the year after starting ninth in the grid. The track has traditionally gotten the best of him as he has an average finish of 23.3 over the past five years there, but he'll be gunning for a solid result as he looks to get to the playoffs.

Long shot: Ryan Newman (40-1)

Newman has fared well at Richmond posting five top-10 results and one top-five over the past five seasons. He's maintained composure as he still looks for a home in 2014 (though he's expected to move to the No. 31 Caterpillar car). Newman won at the Brickyard 400, so a victory here would give him claim to at least a wildcard position.

Key stat: Kevin Harvick, who won the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond back in April, has started 25 races at the track and has yet to record a DNF.

Weather: Forecasts are calling for clear conditions and temperatures in the mid-70s.

Notable quotable:

"Well, after last year, this is going to be easy. We went through so much last year that I think it allows us to be more relaxed, be more prepared knowing that you got to race as hard as you can until the final lap. I think the way (last year) prepared us was knowing no matter what happens, you can't ever give up. You just have to put every bit of effort into every single moment, every lap. If the car's off, you've got to work on it. Sometimes take big swings at it. If your car's perfect, don't get complacent." Jeff Gordon on the pressure of battling for a Chase spot.

Odds to win the Federated Auto Parts 400:

Kyle Busch 5-1
Jimmie Johnson 6-1
Brad Keselowski 7-1
Matt Kenseth 7-1
Kasey Kahne 8-1
Jeff Gordon 10-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Clint Bowyer 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Kurt Busch 15-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-1
Carl Edwards 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-1
Brian Vickers 25-1
Greg Biffle 30-1
Ryan Newman 40-1
Mark Martin 60-1
Juan Montoya 60-1
Jamie McMurray 75-1
Paul Menard 100-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Danica Patrick 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Jeff Burton 100-1
Field ( Any Other Driver ) 100-1

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Minnesota at Seattle

The Storm look to bounce back from their 97-74 loss to the Lynx last Saturday and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following an ATS defeat. Seattle is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 101.038; Indiana 115.219 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14; 135 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 139 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Minnesota at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.395; Seattle 117.177 Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 154 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 148 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+7 1/2); Over

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R.A.W. Football - Saturday
Ball State
Western Kentucky
Indiana
Miami(Fla)
"under" on Mich./N.Dame

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CHI WHITE SOX at BALTIMORE

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (BALTIMORE) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL
306-126 since 1997. ( 70.8% 94.7 units )
28-21 this year. ( 57.1% -8.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY METS at CLEVELAND

NY METS are 17-6 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: NY METS (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.1)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at SEATTLE

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after scoring 75 points or more
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% -0.5 units )

WNBA CONNECTICUT at INDIANA

Play On - Any team vs the money line (INDIANA) revenging a road loss versus opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team after 15 or more games
58-24 since 1997. ( 70.7% 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA CONNECTICUT at INDIANA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 60.5 and 65.5 points after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, vs. division opponents
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

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Bankroll Sports

2* Tulane Green Wave -6.5

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North Coast

4.5*
USF
UVA
Penn St.

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Mitch Wilson

Weekly Newsletter Pick: Miami Hurricanes ML

Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators 12PM EST ESPN The Line: Miami +3
Most of you know this is one that is close to my heart but this is also one that is pretty easy to figure out. While the SEC still gets all of the props, and hey, for what they have done as far as winning National Championships much of it has been deserved, but in some cases it gets out of hand and that is the case here.
Both of these teams are young and the Florida defense despite having just four returning starters played extremely well against Toledo last week. But while Toledo is a very nice non-BCS team, they are hardly in the class of a Miami when it comes to team speed. Speed is a great equalizer and UF was able to make up for a lot last week (in a game they didn’t cover) with speed alone but that won’t be the case here. Miami is loaded at receiver and Stephen Morris at QB may have one of the strongest arms in the nation. Duke Johnson at running back is tough as nails and has some of the best cutback ability I have ever seen. The Gators D will be keying on Johnson leaving the Miami receivers in single coverage and with Morris’ arm and Miami’s speed here, there is only so much the Gators’ DB’s can do.
When we look at the Florida offense against the Miami defense, Miami’s defense has experience but they were very suspect a year ago and had some big drops of easy interceptions last week. Don’t expect them to have as many opportunities here as Florida won’t be throwing deep often. Florida QB Jeff Driskel simply doesn’t have a good arm and the coaching staff doesn’t design many plays where he throws more than three or four yards, even when they need seven. If the Gators fall behind and Driskel is called upon to air it out Florida will be in very big trouble. If we look at Florida’s stats since Driskel took over they bear this out as they have a roster full of first team High School All-Americans with very low productivity.
When we look at the ACC vs. SEC thing, it didn’t seem to bother the home teams last week as Clemson beat Georgia and South Carolina beat UNC. Alabama beat VT but that was a neutral site game. I don’t expect Miami to have the same home field edge Clemson had, though the stadium will be far more full than usual.
When programs are on the rise they have a signature win and this is Miami’s, I am rolling with the Canes on the money line to win outright.
Mitch’s Pick: Miami +140

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Justin Harrison Sports

NCAAF Game of the Month For Saturday

3:30pm / Toledo Rockets +17

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LINE CHANGERS

Illinois vs Cincinnati
Play: Illinois +8
5 Units

Texas-San Antonio vs Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -26
5 Units

Virginia vs Oregon
Play: Oregon -23
3 Units

Miami (FL) vs Florida
Play: Miami (FL) +3
3 Units

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Money Line: Georgia -155