9-9-13

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Eagles at Redskins: NFL bloggers debate who will cover

The first Monday Night Football game of the season is a divisional war between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. Oddsmakers have tabbed Washington as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 1.

In order to get the best grasp on this NFC East battle we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Brandon Gowton of Philadelphia blog “Bleeding Green Nation” and Kevin Ewoldt of Washington blog “Hogs Haven” strap on the helmets and butt heads over which team will not only win but cover the spread Monday night.

WHY PHILADELPHIA WILL COVER

Brandon Gowton writes for Bleeding Green Nation. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @BleedingGreen.

Chip Kelly Factor

Chip Kelly makes his NFL debut on Monday Night Football. No one knows exactly what Kelly's NFL offense looks like yet. There may be incorporated elements of his Oregon Ducks' college offense, but it could catch the NFL by surprise. Kelly was very successful at Oregon (46-7) and he came to the NFL to continue his winning ways at the next level.

Run, run, run the ball

Eagles star running back LeSean McCoy called Chip Kelly's offense a "track meet". McCoy noted multiple running backs will be utilized because Kelly loves to run the ball. Along with McCoy, Bryce Brown and Chris Polk have flashed serious NFL talent. With a steady rotation of carries keeping these RBs fresh, the Eagles ground game could figure to be a problem for the Redskins defense.

Vick reinvigorated

Michael Vick looked flawless at times in Kelly's offense during the preseason. Vick earned the Eagles’ starting QB competition by beating out Nick Foles and hopes to play the best football of his career in order to hold on to his starting job. Kelly aims to harness the talents of Vick in full form while cutting back on Vick's mistakes. The Eagles offense will have no problem scoring points if Vick looks as sharp as he has under his new coach.

WHY WASHINGTON WILL COVER

Kevin Ewoldt is the managing editor for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @HogsHaven.

Rookie coaches stink

In 2012, seven teams had new coaches. They went 1-6 straight up in their week one games and the loss margin in those games was an average of 9.2 points (three teams lost by 15 or more). The sole winner was the Bucs’ squeaker win at home versus the dysfunctional Panthers. The Eagles and rookie coach, Chip Kelly, are on the road. I smell a parlay.

Shanahan dominates Week 1

Mike Shanahan is 15-4 SU in Week 1 and is 3-0 with the Redskins both SU and ATS (two of those wins were with McNabb and Grossman). Last year, he went into New Orleans as a 7.5-point dog and won by eight in Week 1. He's been studying Oregon film since the spring and realistically, the Redskins defense practices against one of the fastest offenses in the NFL every day.

Recent history

Last year, the Eagles were 1-5 ATS in September and now they're entering Week 1 with new systems on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have covered 10 of their last 12 games versus NFC East opponents. With the new CBA rules preventing heavy contact and two-a-days, in addition to Chip Kelly not wanting to show his hand in preseason, the Eagles enter Week 1 without really testing out either sides of the ball.

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NFL betting: Monday night injury watch list

Here is a quick look at some of the players who are probable, questionable and doubtful for the two Monday night games.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 52)

Eagles

- TE James Casey is dealing with a hamstring injury but is expected to play Monday against the Redskins
- CB Cary Williams has a hamstring injury but is expected to play Monday against the Redskins
- T Dennis Kelly is still recovering from back surgery and will miss at least the first two games of the regular season

Redskins

- QB Robert Griffin III has been recovering from reconstructive knee surgery but will be the starter for Monday's game against the Eagles
- WR Aldrick Robinson is dealing with a thigh injury but is expected to play Monday against the Eagles
- WR Leonard Hankerson is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable to play

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers (+3.5, 44.5)

Texans

- RB Arian Foster is questionable to play Monday against the Chargers as he deals with a right calf strain
- G Wade Smith is expected to be ready for Monday's game against the Chargers
- WR DeVier Posey is recovering from a torn left Achilles' tendon but is expected to be ready
- WR DeAndre Hopkins has a concussion and is questionable to play Monday
- T David Quessenberry will undergo surgery after breaking his foot during practice and is out indefinitely
- S Ed Reed nderwent minor hip surgery in April to repair a small tear in his labrum and will be a game-time decision
- LB Darryl Sharpton has a concussion and is expected to miss Monday's game

Chargers

- WR Eddie Royal left practice on August 17th in an ambulance after suffering a bruised lung and a concussion. He is questionable to play Monday
- WR Malcom Floyd was carted from the practice field during preseason with a right knee injury but is expected to be ready to play
- LB Manti Te'o is dealing with a foot injury and will sit out Monday's game
- DE Corey Liuget is dealing with shoulder discomfort but is expected to play

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Bettors beware big MLB moneyline favorites
By JASON LOGAN

The Oakland Athletics are holding strong atop the American League West while the Houston Astros dwindle at the bottom, after the A’s took two of the first three games of a four-game set this week.

However, if you were betting on Oakland during that span, you’re in the red thanks to the hefty price tags on the home side. The Athletics were tabbed as -275, -270 and “thrifty” -217 favorites during the first three games of the series, and a $100 Oakland bettor would down almost $17 over those three contests.

Moneylines in the -270 and up range are more common this time year, especially when a playoff-bound team plays a basement dweller with no motivation in September. While the odds may look like a sure thing, big MLB favorites have been anything but money in the bank this season.

Favorites of -270 or higher are just 9-7 as of Sunday. If you bet $100 on each of those teams you would be down more than -$388. Moneyline chalk of -300 or higher is a bankroll draining 2-4. The Texas Rangers are 1-2 as -300 or more favorites while Detroit is 1-1 and Tampa Bay lost its lone game as a -320 favorite.

Last year, big MLB favorites lived up to the oddsmakers expectations. Teams priced between -270 and up went a collective 15-2. In 2011, those moneyline monsters were 10-4. Those most consistent winners over the past three years (2011-2013) have been favorites between -270 and -280, which are a combined 12-2.

There was a rash of big favorites between 2009 and 2010, with a total of 77 games having a moneyline favorite of -270 and above. Those high-priced teams went a collective 56-14, which may seem like a respectable record until you size up the return on investment on those massive odds.

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Z Money Sports 9/9

Philadelphia +4
Philly/Wash over 52
Sd/Houston over 45

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Johnny Serrone 9/9


Texans -4


Pit/Tex Under 8


Eagle/Skins Under 52

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Prediction Machine
Sides
WAS
SD

O/U
Was/Phi - Over
SD/Hou - Under

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CHRIS JORDAN

200 Eagles (has them at +4. Says t buy half pt to make +4.5)

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bob balfe redskins -4 1/2

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/9
San Diego Chargers +4 over the Houston Texans

(System Record: 135-5, Won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 135-119

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Philadelphia vs. Washington - September 9, 2013 - 7:10 PM

Pick: Your pick will be graded at justbet @ 4.5 -110 Philadelphia
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Sep 9 - 7:10 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Skins had their way with the Eagles last season. However, that was with Foles at QB and with Reid as the head coach. Things are different in Philly now and I look for a much different team and result on the field this evening.

I like the coaching change that the Eagles made. Reid did a lot of good things, but his time here was clearly done. Kelly is a winner and he's brought a winning mentality with him.

Obviously, Griffin has some special talents and he had a great season last year. Keep in mind that he'll be taking his first snap in an NFL game since reconstructive surgery and since re-hurting his right knee in the playoff loss vs. Seattle.

While he's considerably older, keep in mind that Vick has a lot of the same skills that Griffin does. With a renewed emphasis on the ground game, Vick will finally be encouraged to utilize his running skills.

Vick was quoted saying: "I'm going to have the opportunity to do what I want to do in this offense and run the football. And yes, I will be a threat. I think you've got to take on a certain mindset that you're going to play the game all-out."

Vick's "all out" mentality might make it difficult to last the entire season - but it should make him extremely dangerous, when healthy. Note that he was 20 of 28 for 333 yards and four touchdowns to go with 73 yards rushing.

Kelly said this of his QB: "The biggest thing with Mike that you saw was just his growth and improvement. He just kept learning the system ... His willingness to learn, his passion for the game of football was evidenced since the first day we saw him."

The Skins, who ranked just 28th defensively last season, have long been terrible in the favorite role. They're 51-81-3 ATS the last 135 times that they were laying points, including a 12-24 ATS mark when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While that's admittedly largely ancient history, they were also 0-2 ATS in that role the past couple of seasons.

Meanwhile, despite a poor record at the betting window overall, the Eagles have quietly gone a profitable 3-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

While they were beaten badly here last season, the Eagles remain a healthy 13-7-1 ATS (14-7 SU) their last 21 visits here. Vick has won his last three starts against the Skins, throwing for better than 900 yards while recording eight touchdowns. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* NFC Best Bet

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9xSports


(MLB) 7:05PM CLEVELAND INDIANS-110

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Tom freese

Angels
texans

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Michael David:

houston

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

PHILADELPHIA (479) AT WASHINGTON (480)
Latest Line: Redskins -3.5; Total: 52

Two exciting dual-threat quarterbacks play under the lights on Monday when Eagles QB Michael Vick tries to outscore Redskins QB Robert Griffin III. Griffin put up insane numbers during his team's sweep of Philly last year, completing 30-of-39 passes for 398 yards and 6 TD, plus 88 more running yards. He won't scramble as much with his knee brace, but Washington RB Alfred Morris also hurt the Eagles with 191 total yards in the two wins. Philly's defense got a major overhaul in personnel, and new head coach Chip Kelly has delivered his up-tempo offense from Oregon that centers around Vick and RB LeSean McCoy.

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

HOUSTON (481) AT SAN DIEGO (482)
Latest Line: Chargers +4; Total: 44.5

The big question for part two of the Monday doubleheader is how much Texans star RB Arian Foster will play versus the Chargers. Foster, who led the NFL with 351 carries, was slowed with calf and back injuries throughout camp. There’s nothing wrong with Houston’s Defensive Player of the Year, DE J.J. Watt, who hopes to wreak havoc in Mike McCoy's first game as San Diego's head coach. McCoy and new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt will allow QB Philip Rivers to throw downfield, while hoping RB Ryan Mathews can keep defenses honest. The Chargers are 4-0 (SU and ATS) all-time versus the Texans.
FORECASTER: Houston 22, San Diego 21