9-12-13

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NCAAF

Week 3

Thursday's games

Texas Tech (-1.5) beat TCU 56-53 LY, despite being outgained by 127 yards, primarily because of +3 turnover ratio. Red Raiders passed for 910 yards on 106 passes in first two games- they're 7-3 as home dogs since '06. TCU is down to one quality QB with Pachall (arm) out for eight weeks; Horned Frogs allowed 404 rushing yards first two games, including 207 to SE Louisiana- they're 1-4 as road faves last 2+ years. Neither team has much experience on OL; Tech has new coach, new QB, five new starters on OL.

Tulane (-6.5) lost at home to I-A newbie South Alabama last week, after being outgained by I-AA Jackson State week before. Since 2010, Green Wave is 9-7-1 as road underdogs; Tech lost 15 of 22 starters from LY; they're 4-6 as home favorites last 3+ years, but with a new coach, new QB and five new starters on OL, hard to endorse laying poiints. Since '07, Skip Holtz is 10-18 vs spread as a home fave, at ECU/USF. These teams haven't met since '98.

Arkansas State beat Troy last two years, with two different coaches; its 4th coach in four years for ASU now- they got drilled 38-9 by Malzahn and Auburn last week, outgained only 468-422. Red Wolves are 10-4 vs spread as home favorites since '10- they beat Troy the last two seasons, 41-34/45-14 Trojans' QB Robinson has more career starts (38) than his whole starting OL combined; he's completed 58-64 passes in first two games, rallying his team back from down 17-7 at half to beat UAB in OT in opener. Troy is 13-11-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.

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Cappers Access

Patriots -11.5
Texas Tech +3
Troy +8

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Friday Tulane/Louisiana Tech Over 57

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start
215-100 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% 71.8 units )
51-29 this year. ( 63.8% 9.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB SAN FRANCISCO at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 28-10 (+17.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season.

The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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Paul Leiner

100* Jets +12

100* Over 57.5 - Tulane/La Tech

50* Indians -140

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Tulane +7½

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Minnesota at Los Angeles

The Sparks look to build on their 19-7 ATS record in their last 26 games against the Lynx in LA. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Seattle at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.670; Tulsa 116.237 Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 7 1/2; 140 Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 5; 146 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-5); Under

Game 653-654: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.404; Los Angeles 118.299 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 164 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 159 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Over

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game
201-120 since 1997. ( 62.6% 69.0 units )
26-14 this year. ( 65.0% 10.6 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play On - Any team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
224-88 since 1997. ( 71.8% 0.0 units )
10-3 this year. ( 76.9% 0.0 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

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CHRIS JORDAN

200 Patriots -11

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Hondo

cle (mlb)

NE (nfl)

TTech (cfb)

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The Winners Circle

THURSDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play St. Louis -170 over Milwaukee MLB TOP PLAY

Joe Kelly has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Joe Kelly has won 10 of the last 11 games when pitching in the 2^nd half of the season and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.50.


5* Play Pittsburgh -175 over Chicago Cubs MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play LA Dodgers -175 over San Francisco MLB TOP PLAY

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TKWins

Sport League Competitor Selection Odds Units Game Date / GameTime
VIP FULL ACCESS	NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN	Tcu V/s TEXAS TECH	Texas Tech	+3EV	4	12 Sep 2013 / 7:30 pm
VIP FULL ACCESS	NCAA FOOTBALL - MEN	Tulane V/s LOUISIANA TECH	Louisiana Tech	-7-105	3	12 Sep 2013 / 7:30 pm
VIP FULL ACCESS	NFL - REGULAR SEASON	Ny Jets V/s NE PATRIOTS	Ny Jets	+12½-110	4	12 Sep 2013 / 8:25 pm

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JACK JONES
20* Jets/Patriots AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +13

The Jets actually played a very good game against the Buccaneers overall in what should have been a bigger blowout last week. They put up a respectable 304 total yards behind rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who completed 24 of 38 passes for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also showed some guts late in leading the Jets down the field to set up the game-winning field goal.

New York was even more impressive on the other side of the ball, holding a very solid Tampa Bay offense to just 250 total yards. It limited Josh Freeman to 15 of 31 passing for 210 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It also held the electric Doug Martin to only 65 rushing yards on 24 carries.

New England clearly had some chemistry issues against Buffalo, needing a last-second field goal to win 23-21 despite being a double-digit favorite. It will not be able solve those issues in less than a week’s time. The new receivers aren’t quite on the same page as Brady, and now both Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are banged up. Brady only completed 29 of 52 passes with two touchdowns and an interception against Buffalo. Rookie QB E.J. Manuel completed 18 of 27 passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns for the Bills.

New York is 1-2 in its last three trips to New England, but its two losses have come by a combined 12 points. The Jets are 44-27 against the spread in road games versus division opponents since 1992. Rex Ryan is 13-5 against the number off a home win as the coach of New York.

Plays against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) – poor defense from last season – allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Jets Thursday.

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Sportswagers NFL

Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013


N.Y. Jets @ NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND -11 -104 over N.Y. Jets


The Jets were at home last week and had it not been for a stupid personal foul penalty on the second last play of the game, New York would be 0-1 after a 17-15 loss to the Buccaneers.The start of the Geno Smith era went pretty well even if it did not have a lot to do with him. Facing one of the worst defenses from last year who were on the road would be a prescription for "as good as it gets" but pretty it was not. Kellen Winslow hung on to make the roster and then led the Jets with seven catches for 79 yards. Facing one of the weakest rush defenses from 2012, Chris Ivory only gained 15 yards on 10 carries. Bilal Powell looked like a powerhouse by comparison when he gained 29 yards on 12 carries. The Jets are getting way too much credit here for one lousy win in a game they deserved to lose. Had this game been scheduled for Week 1, the Patriots would’ve been a 14½-point choice. We now get the benefit of a weaker line because of Week 1 results. Pencil us in for that. New England’s stock is low after its opening game wasn't nearly as clean and pretty as we have come to expect from the Patriots. Any time that Tom Brady has to run five times to gain a four-yard loss is a game that is not going to plan. Stevan Ridley was benched for fumbling twice and the Pats two best players last week, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen are both out this week. We say big deal. Brady still passed for nearly 300 yards and two TD’s. The Pats defense held E.J. Manuel to 150 passing yards and the Bills have way more weapons than the Jets have. Ridley is a fumble away from being in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and that’s a place he surely doesn’t want to be in. Ridley had nine carries for 46 yards on the 15 plays he was on the field, but fumbled twice. Belichick gave him the “you gone!” and Shane Vereen took over and ran for 101 yards. The only saving grace for Ridley is that Vereen broke a bone in his wrist and will miss a month, which may help him dodge a bullet. But once Uncle Bill gets pissy, it’s hard to get back in his good graces, even for a young buck with Ridley’s talent. With that hanging over his head, Ridley could go off for a huge game here. There’s nothing Belichick enjoys more than beating up on the Jets and Rex Ryan. The Patriots near loss in Buffalo has many scared to lay such a big number but for us, it has the opposite effect. Buffalo is much improved and it’s always a tough place to play in. The Jets are one of the worst teams over the past decade and nothing has changed. Patriots should have little trouble holding Geno Smith, in his first NFL road game, and the New York offense to very little if anything at all. Expect New England to go off for 24 or more and that should be plenty to get this cover.

Our Pick
NEW ENGLAND -11 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)




Survivor Pick - Week 2
CHICAGO over Minnesota
Survivor Pick - Week 2

Raise your hand if you sweated out last week’s Survivor Pool with New England or Indianapolis and shame on you if you penciled in the Steelers after we warned you to not go near that favorite last week. Once again, we’re going to stick to our philosophy of avoiding the biggest picks of the week and that would be New England, Houston, Green Bay or Philadelphia of which 85%-95% of your pool will be on. Anybody picking one of those first three teams could not be faulted, however, we would be rather cautious about playing the Eagles. That brings us to our choice, the Bears over the Vikings. The Lions won by 10 points over the Vikings, but left a ton of points on the field by shooting themselves in the foot over and over again in the first half. They could have scored 50 and should have scored 40. Many teams will make adjustments after Week 1 but the Vikes just don’t have the personnel to get much better. This league is becoming more offensive minded every season and Minnesota is one of few teams that aren’t making the adjustment. Christian Ponder is not fit to QB in this league and when you don’t have a quality QB, you have no shot of winning more games than you lose. The Bears beat a very tough and well-prepared Bengals squad. Unlike the Lions, who defeated the Vikes by 10, Chicago rarely leaves points on the table. The Bears used to be known for their great defense and they are still a top unit. However, this season, the new Trestman offense has been a success in the one game played and it’s only going to get better. Chicago takes a huge step down in class this week, they have a vastly superior QB and offense and they also have the much better defense. Oh, and the Bears are at home. Our Week 2 Survivor Pick - straight up - is Chicago.
Used
Week 1 Denver √

Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	5	2	0.00	+6.18
Season to Date	7	3	0.00	+8.18

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Sportswagers NCAAF
Today's Free Picks for Sep 12, 2013





Texas Christian @TEXAS TECH
TEXAS TECH +136 over Texas Christian


The Horned Frogs come in as the 24th ranked team in the nation and when a ranked team is playing an unranked team, the line is usually inflated and that’s certainly the case here. TCU is not the 24th best team in the country and by the end of September or sooner, they will no longer be ranked. TCU played a decent game against nationally ranked LSU in its opener, eventually losing 37-27 but that is a flattering score to the Tigers. TCU managed just 259 yards of offense, had a lousy 12 first downs the entire game and much of its offense came at garbage time with the Tigers up 30-17 going to the fourth quarter. At home against SE Louisiana last week, the Horned Frogs were a 40-point favorite and didn’t even score 40 points, winning 38-17. Allowing 38 points to a conservative LSU offense and then allowing 17 to an FCS opponent is not exactly a ringing endorsement for the visitor. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs lost its #1 QB last week and will travel on four days rest to play this undervalued and quality opponent. Texas Tech defeated Stephen F Austin last week 61-13. Yeah, big deal. However, they went into SMU in Week 1 as a four-point favorite and buried the Mustangs, 41-23. After two games, Tech has racked up 102 points and nearly 600 yards of offense per game. It’s no coincidence that TTU’s offense is thriving. Kliff Kingsbury, a former TTU standout QB himself, was brought as the new head coach and he knows a thing or two about offensive efficiency and creativity. Kingsbury served as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at both Houston and Texas A&M the last four years. He has mentored former UH standout Case Keenum and was instrumental in helping A&M's Johnny Manziel win the 2012 Heisman Trophy. Kingsbury is working with freshman QB, Baker Mayfield and the kid has been near flawless, completing over 70% of his passes for 780 yards (third in the FBS), tossing seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Red Raiders defense is not great but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that because they might be better than advertised, they have the offense to compensate and they’re facing a second stringer. TCU has not looked sharp in the early going and as we have seen over and over again, that lack of sharpness has a way of lingering for an entire season when a team gets off to a poor start. We also get the profitable angle of playing the unranked home dog in a nationally televised ESPN game. Keep the points. TTU outright.

Our Pick
TEXAS TECH +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)

Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	5	6	0.00	-0.60
Season to Date	5	6	0.00	-0.60