9-19-13

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Kansas City at Philadelphia

The Chiefs look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Kansas City is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (9/18)

Game 301-302: Kansas City at Philadelphia (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.509; Philadelphia 130.236 Dunkel Line: Even; 55 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Gil's Umpire UNDER streaker:

Joyce 9-2-2 L13 (ARI/LAD)

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

148-98-2 run

24-15-3 run last 42 plays

pod tigers game under 8

[Mr. IWS]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cole is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts. Kennedy is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three outings.
-- Bumgarner is 1-0, 2.00 in his last three starts. Niese is 3-1, 2.93 in his last six.
-- Wacha is 2-1, 1.86 in his last five starts.
-- Miley is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts. Nolasco is 4-1, 3.00 in his last five starts, but got KO'd in second inning in his last start.
-- Gonzalez is 3-1, 2.93 in his last four starts.

-- Paxton is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two starts.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 0.84 in his last three starts.
-- Redmond is 2-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 7-0, 2.04 in his last ten starts.
-- Straily is 4-0, 1.90 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Arrieta is 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts. Lohse is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four.
-- Oswalt is 0-5, 6.85 in five starts this season.
-- Alvarez is 2-3, 5.28 in his last six starts.

-- Fister is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Keuchel is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-4, 7.71 in his last six starts.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 4.93 in his last five starts. Tillman is 1-2, 4.43 in his last three.
-- Darvish is 0-4, 3.51 in his last four starts; he lost his last two starts 1-0.
-- Correia is 1-4, 4.05 in his last six starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Kennedy 9-29 (0 of last 8); Cole 5-16 (3 of last 3)
-- Bumgarner 3-30 (0 of last 10); Niese 7-21
-- Arrieta 2-12 (0 of 7 with Chi); Lohse 8-30 (1 of last 12)
-- Wacha 1-7; Oswalt 1-5
-- Nolasco 7-30 (1 of last 8); Miley 10-30 (4 of last 7)
-- Alvarez 2-13; Gonzalez 8-30

-- Paxton 0-2; Fister 7-30
-- Keuchel 3-20 (1 of last 6); Jimenez 6-29 (1 of last 14)
-- Kuroda 9-30 (3 of last 4); Redmond 2-11
-- Tillman 8-30 (4 of last 7); Lackey 10-27 (1 of last 6)
-- Darvish 9-28; Moore 7-24 (1 of last 10)
-- Correia 7-29 (1 of last 15); Straily 6-25 (1 of last 5)

Totals
-- Nine of last twelve San Diego games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Giant games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Seven of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.

-- Eight of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games.
-- Last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Baltimore games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Tampa Bay games.
-- 11 of last 17 Minnesota games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- San Diego won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Giants won seven of their last ten games. Mets won four of last six.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of their last seven games.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games..

-- Detroit won six of its last eight games.
-- Indians won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last twelve games. Orioles won four of last five.
-- Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games.
-- A's won nine of their last twelve games.

Cold teams
-- Pirates lost last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Cubs are 11-25 in their last 36 games.
-- Colorado lost 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Dodgers lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost ten of its last thirteen games.

-- Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost last five games, outscored 30-9.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last eight games. Bronx lost four of its last five.
-- Texas lost 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Twins lost 10 of their last 14 games.

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
New York Yankees -122 over Toronto Blue Jays
(System Record: 79-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 79-88-2

Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs + Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 51
(System Record: 15-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 15-9

Soccer Crusher
Bahia + Internacional UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 457-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 457-394-61

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Atlanta

The Dream look to open up the playoffs and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 home games versus the Mystics. Atlanta is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Washington at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.664; Atlanta 115.986 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 152 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Under

Game 653-654: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.163; Los Angeles 120.327 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10; 168 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 161 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-7 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

NY Yankees at Toronto

The Yankees look to build on their 5-1 record in Hiroki Kuroda's last 6 starts against the Blue Jays. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: San Diego at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.770; Pittsburgh (Cole) 14.545 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Over

Game 953-954: San Francisco at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.739; NY Mets (Niese) 14.137 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 14.810; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.113 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135); Under

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.111; Colorado (Oswalt) 13.790 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 10 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 15.479; Arizona (Miley) 14.274 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under

Game 961-962: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 13.678; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.045 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-270); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-270); Over

Game 963-964: Seattle at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.435; Detroit (Fister) 14.424 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+170); Under

Game 965-966: Houston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.270; Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.727 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-240); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-240); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.167; Toronto (Redmond) 14.765 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 17.449; Boston (Lackey) 16.658 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 971-972: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.588; Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.671 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Over

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 13.553; Oakland (Straily) 16.026 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-230); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-230); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1097-827 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS: Phil Eagles -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Run for your money: Handicapping MLB's wild-card races

With more than 150 games down and roughly 10 to go, a handful of major-league teams remain in the hunt for a wild-card berth. The American League race remains one of the most complex in recent years, while the National League playoff chase is more about positioning at this point.

Here's a look at teams from each league that remain in the running of a playoff spot (World Series odds courtesy LVH):

American League

Tampa Bay Rays (83-68, first wild-card spot)

The Rays (20/1 to win the World Series) were challenging the Boston Red Sox for the American League East title not long ago, but a 3-7 tailspin to open the month left the wild card as their only chance at playoff glory. Tampa Bay has a tough road the rest of the way, with a four-game homestand against fellow contender Baltimore leading into a season-ending six-game road trip against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

Texas Rangers (82-69, second wild-card spot)

The Rangers (20/1) have fallen apart over the past two and a half weeks, going 3-13 so far in September - a stretch that includes a seven-game losing streak during which the club was held to two runs or fewer four times. Texas has a much more manageable schedule than the Rays, visiting Kansas City for a three-game set before wrapping up the campaign with seven straight home games against woeful Houston and the underachieving Los Angeles Angels.

Cleveland Indians (82-70, half game back of Texas)

An 11-6 showing for the month has the Indians (30/1) back in the postseason conversation after being all but ruled out three weeks ago. Cleveland has gained four games on the Rangers over the past week and a half, but still has Baltimore (one game back of Texas) and the Yankees and Royals (2.5 back) to contend with. Cleveland has a powder-puff schedule, however, with a six-game homestand against the Astros and White Sox and a four-game trek to Minnesota.

National League

Pittsburgh Pirates (87-65, first wild-card spot)

Barring a collapse by the Pirates (14/1) or a miraculous run by the Washington Nationals (see below), Pittsburgh will end a two-decade playoff drought at the end of the month. But the Pirates have loftier goals, namely catching the Cardinals for top spot in the National League Central. Pittsburgh enters Friday two games off the pace, with six of its final 10 games against the team directly behind it in both the division and wild-card standings (also see below).

Cincinnati Reds (87-66, second wild-card spot)

The aforementioned Reds (16/1) continue to hang around, making the Central the only legitimate division race remaining. Cincinnati has surged into contention with an 11-6 September that includes a road sweep against lowly Houston earlier this week. In addition to having six games against Pittsburgh to close out the regular season, the Reds have the privilege of facing a New York Mets team that is playing out the string.

Washington Nationals (81-71, 5.5 games back of Cincinnati)

It will take a sensational run - and some help - for the Nationals (200/1) to return to the postseason. The division race is all but over - Atlanta has an nine-game lead with 10 to play - and unless either the Reds dominate the Pirates or vice versa, Washington won't be able to make up enough ground for a long winning streak to matter. The Nationals host Miami for four games before finishing up with three games each in Atlanta and Arizona.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Cards -1.5 -120

Cleveland -1.5 -125

[Mr. IWS]

Sweetjones55
Clemson Tigers -13.5 (x0.5) / -14 (x1)

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

NC St +14.5
Eagles -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

bal (mlb)
tex (mlb)

PHI (nfl)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler Double Dime bet

Clemson/NC State Under

Yes, it would be very easy to assume this is a 38-35 game or even higher, based on not only last years' game but the very fact that Clemson is the third ranked team in the nation and they've got the Star Power on offense. I suppose it could be that type of game, but that's the last thing I see. Remember, that's ten touchdowns to lose this bet.


Coming in, NC State simply has to know they're probably not going to want to get into a shootout with Clemson and expect to win. They'll do whatever they can to keep the ball, and in their first two games they were very good at it, holding time of possession about 67% of the time. True, those two games were against La Tech and Richmond, but in fact one would think the opposite would be true and that they'd score rather easily and NOT hold the ball the whole game. Two things. First of all in those game the Wolfpack kicked seven field goals and scored six touchdowns. That's just terrible Red Zone play, and if that happens again on Thursday, that's four less points per possession every time it does. Also, NC State figured to win both those games, so this is indeed the game THEY'VE been looking to as much as Clemson has. And they, as well as Clemson, bring back three defensive lineman and two linebackers. Nobody talks about defense, but they'll be the ones that win this game for either side.


Pete Thomas has some gaudy numbers here, but remember, he's a CSU transfer that's never played in a game of this magnitude, or at least one with an huge ESPN audience. And clearly Doeren knows that and won't ask him to win the game, at least not early. And with the Northern Illinois pedigree, you simply know the Wolfpack will be disciplined on defense.


Then there's Clemson, who we like to knock for not having a defense, but they came up pretty big against UGA, who is obviously far superior on offense to the Wolfpack. BOTH teams have had extra prep time, and Clemson's second game against SC State wasn't even a challenge, so they really haven't had to exert anything since the opening night, and that was at home. NC State was a DD dog twice last year, and at home beat FSU outright, and even in that Clemson game, lost but covered the big number.


Last years game featured over 1300 yards of total offense, and Clemson RAN for over 300 yards, while BOTH teams threw for over 400 yards! It would be easy to assume that happens again, but back to the original point, what was the outcome and does NC State want that again? I doubt it, and as the home team, they should be able to dictate some of the flow here. We're hearing all this talk about Clemson remembering what happened here two years ago, but that was then and thi½s is now, and Clemson being the heavy chalk and highly ranked has been something they just can't seem to live up to year after year. The sharp side here is the Wolfpack, as of this writing, and if they're going to cover the 14 points, this should struggle to hit 60, really. I could only wish is were not even THAT close, but they should find a way to make enough mistakes (remember, it's still early and timing isn't perfect) or fail in the Red Zone enough times to keep this game under the number. Remember, NC State has something to prove here, too. That they can not let Taj Boyd break school records (which he did last year in this game) and account for eight touchdowns. Not with Doeren coaching this team, and Clemson's defense may not be LSU's, but they are a bit under rated.


And FWIW I also lean and am betting the UNDER in the NFL game at 51.5, but that number may be gone by Thursday night. This one shouldn't be.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phil V Clemson