If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
4-Unit Play. #375 Take Tulane (+16) over Syracuse (12:30 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
I like this Tulane team. We backed them in their lone loss to a surprising South Alabama team in a close loss. Here, despite the heavy underdog label, I think the points will be good. The Green Wave have the offensive punch to score enough points against the Orange to not only cover but also compete for an outright victory. I can't remember Syracuse being this big a favorite over a team that wasn't a complete cupcake. Well, I can tell you Tulane is no walkover and I feel good about the points and the dog in this match-up. Outside of a 52-0 win over a horrible Wager team, Syracuse has lost its only two games this season, and I don't think they should be this big of chalk. Grab the points and the small conference team in this match-up.
4-Unit Play. #336 Take Maryland (-4.5) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
Equal parts fade the Mountaineers and back the home Terps. I basically think this WVU squad is nothing to write home about. Graduating Geno Smith will catch up with them sooner than they will get over not having their do-it-all quarterback from a season ago. Maryland has some nice momentum with a 3-0 start and get a modest home line if I can say so as well. West Virginia has won each of the past three games in College Park, however this season the Terps are the better team. I was assuming this line would be around a touchdown in favor of the home team, so it's a value pick of sorts. Let's go with Maryland to continue their strong start to their 2013 season.
4-Unit Play. #387 Take Missouri (-1) over Indiana (8 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
It's all well and good for the Hoosiers to put up points in bulk against the likes of Indiana State, Navy and Bowling Green. However the SEC's Mizzou is a whole different opponent. Granted the Tigers aren't a legit Top Ten team or anything, however I think Missouri is in a class well beyond Indiana. I see this being another 30-point performance by Mizzou's high tempo offense as well as a win and a cover. Not trying to think too much on this one because I think Missouri is clearly the pick here. Go with the SEC over the Big Ten.
*Boise St. 33 - FRESNO ST. 29—After unexpected week off, Fresno
refreshed for revenge battle vs. old WAC foe Boise. But not sure Bulldogs
ready to reverse recent series domination vs. Broncos (won and covered last 7),
especially with Fresno “O” dangerously imbalanced in early going without
infantry diversion graduated RB Rouse provided LY. Bulldog “D” also leaked in
opener against Rutgers, and confidence-restored Boise QB Southwick (6 TDP
last 2 games) capable of firing needed scoring shots in Dog House. CABLE
TV—ESPN
Boise State 27 - FRESNO STATE 20 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Bronc QB Southwick set
Boise efficiency record with 27-of-29 effort vs AirForce. He now has 6 TDs in 2
games, while Ajayi amassed 125 RYs (4 TDs) vs Falcons. Fresno game at Colo
was literally washed out. Ran for just 81 yds vs Rutgers, but Carr 74-of-104 (661
yds & 8 TDs). Boise owns series, & has bounced back from Wash debacle.
*FRESNO STATE over BOISE STATE by 3
While the Broncos didn’t have an opposing passing game to worry about in last
week’s meeting with Air Force, pass defense has been good for them recently,
especially last year against Fresno State when they held a 37-6 TD-INT passer
to a 1-1 TD-INT game and 60 fewer passing yards than average. Derek Carr is
already 8-1 TD-INT this season for Fresno State, and has to be encouraged that
Boise’s pass defense might have some holes in it this season with an inexperienced secondary and 324 passing yards allowed against quarterback Keith Price
of Washington. Fresno State’s game at Colorado was cancelled for area flooding
last weekend but we’ll let other people guess on how that might affect them as
they saddle up for seven straight losses worth of revenge against Boise (at 0-7
ATS!).
FRESNO STATE, 31-28.
Fresno State* over Boise State by 7
It wouldn’t shock us if this game followed the same tack as Boise opener at
Washington. However, the Broncos stifled the Fresno State attack last year and an
unscheduled bye has a way of throwing a team off-kilter.
FRESNO STATE 35-28
Game Breakdown: Boise has dominated this matchup recently. The Broncos have won and covered seven straight times against Fresno, including a 20-10 victory at home last October. Fresno star QB Derek Carr has averaged just 5.37 YPA in two career games against Boise, and Fresno had just 322 yards of offense against the Broncos last year. The Bulldogs have won their first two games of 2013 SU, but failed to cover in both. Boise has dominated their first two opponents, missing a cover by a point against Air Force last week.
• Chris Petersen is 17-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as coach of BOISE ST.
• FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the L2 seasons.
• FRESNO ST is 14-4 ATS in games played on turf over the L3 seasons.
STATFOX FORECASTER: Boise State 33 Fresno State 34
Comment