9-21-13

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GamingToday's Consensus Picks September 21, 2013 6:27 AM by GT Staff

NCAA Football

307 North Texas +33: The Mean Green catch the Bulldogs in a perfect situation as Georgia is off big win over South Carolina and they get LSU next week.

319 Pittsburgh -4: The Panthers are an improved team this year with a real good passing attack, Duke has gone 0-6 ATS as a dog the last six times in this situation.

325 Ball State -11: The ball will be in the air in this game and Eastern Michigan is a lowly 6-12-1 ATS at home under HC Ron English.

332 Miami Ohio +23: Miami gets home after two weeks on the road and had a week off to get things in order, they get the cover in this one off a big effort.

334 Georgia Tech -5½: We look for both teams to go up and down the field but the Yellow Jackets get the nod in a high scoring affair in front of a huge crowd.

333 North Carolina / 334 Georgia Tech OVER 60

338 Minnesota -4½: Good spot for the Golden Gophers as they look to go 4-0 for the second straight season we think they get the job done and get the cover.

355 Michigan State +7: Notre Dame is not as good as people think and Michigan State fits the same bill, these two will slug it out in a very close game which will come down to a field goal.

357 Kansas State +6: The theme in Austin is what is going on with our program as it is in dissaray, the theme in Manhattan is we own the Longhorns as the Wildcats have beaten Texas 5 straight since 2003.

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NCAA Football Play of the Day September 21, 2013 6:45 AM by GT Staff

Michigan State at Notre Dame at 1:30 p.m. PST

Sparty could pull off the outright upset. Irish struggled to beat a weak-to-mediocre at best Purdue.

355 Michigan State +5

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Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior September 21, 2013 7:02 AM by Mark Mayer

NCAA Football

311 Western Michigan +16½: Figure Hawkeyes to come in flat.

333 North Carolina +6½: Tar Heels had two weeks to get prepared.

345 Utah +7: We’ll take a touchdown in the Holy War.

363 Colorado St. +38½: Roll Tide but by less in first post Manziel game.

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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

CFB week 4 picks

Added play

Sat Sept 21st - Wake Forest @ Army - [317] UNDER 48 (-107) *Added*
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87)

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MMA Professor Picks 9/21

Brendan Schaub (even) over Matt Mittrione

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60 percent guaranteed

sat. Sept. 21

Wisconsin -23
Penn st . -22
Mizz -2
Stanford -6.5

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MajorCovers 9/21

UNC at Georgia Tech Over 58.5
Marshall +10
Maryland -5
Utah St. at USC Under 50
Kansas St at Texas Under 59

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CHRIS JORDAN

200 Iowa/Western Mich under 47

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UFC 165 betting: Do MMA stats back up Jones' big odds?
By MMAODDSBREAKER

For the first time ever, Jon Jones is going to pick on someone his own size when he puts the UFC light heavyweight belt on the line against Swedish contender Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 Saturday.

The champ is currently a -900 favorite over Gustafsson at +600. That’s a big spread, even for a title fight where the lines have a tendency to run away when there’s a popular favorite. Let’s see if the numbers justify the 9-to-1 odds that Jones keeps his belt.

Tale of tape:

Gustafsson recently divulged his real reach is actually 81 inches, contrary to what the UFC has been reporting for years. Even if we take his word for that, despite being slightly taller, Gustafsson will still be at a reach disadvantage.

The more interesting twist for both fighters is that they are finally facing a high-caliber opponent who is the same age. Both fighters have enjoyed running through some older opponents, but there will be no youth advantage for either.

The last variable of note is speculative, and that’s Jones’ stance. He has shown an ability to switch his stance frequently during fights. So while they are both listed as Orthodox, Jones could mix in some southpaw work depending on his fight strategy.

Overall, there’s still a slight edge to the champion, supported by his shorter layoff and far greater big-fight experience.

Striking:

It will definitely be an interesting start to the fight when these two try to establish range. Gustafsson is accustomed to controlling the standup with a high pace and dominant cage control. However, there’s a hole in his game that is worth noting. For a long fighter, his jab accuracy is actually below average and his head striking defense is downright bad.

He may have a better reach than we thought, but that just makes me interpret his historical stats with even more skepticism. A rangy fighter should normally show good jab accuracy and striking defense, but Gustafsson doesn’t.

Jones, on the other hand, has been very accurate with his jab and his defense is excellent. If these two get into a strike-and-fade battle for points, Jones should land more often. The counter point here is Gustafsson’s big power, which comes out to a knockdown rate that is twice as high as Jones’.

Jones will have more versatile attacks while Gustafsson will be head hunting per usual. These are light heavyweights, so if either lands something clean it could be over. If that happens though, it would be a first as both fighters have shown stout chins and have yet to be knocked down.

In the clinch is where things get interesting. Both fighters have used this position to attempt takedowns, and Jones should have the advantage here. So if either fighter closes the distance, it probably won’t be a striking matchup for long.

Grappling:

The ground game more heavily leans towards Jones. Both fighters attempt takedowns at an average pace, but Jones has more success at landing them. On defense, Gustafsson has been good at defending takedowns, but Jones has been perfect. Once on the ground, Jones has never been put on his back, while Gustafsson has spent approximately a third of his time there.

Despite the submission attempt rate favoring the challenger, there’s no doubt that Jones is the greater submission threat. He has secured a variety of submission finishes, including impressive taps and naps from high level BJJ black belts. Gustafsson, on the other hand, has secured two rear naked chokes against opponents with questionable grappling skills.

Jones is more likely to get top control on the ground and once there, he’s shown the ability to work very effectively from guard using strikes. The versatile attack he can mount on the ground all points to a big advantage for Jones, where he can end the fight with submissions or strikes.

Final analysis:

I think Jones will win here, but the straight victory line of -900 is too ridiculous to touch. Jones “inside the distance” is a far more reasonable play at -205, especially considering he has five full rounds to get a stoppage.

Also consider that the Over play of 2.5 rounds is a nearly even return at -120. I wouldn’t be surprised if the two take some time to feel each other out on the feet.

While I think Jones has all the finishing instinct necessary to submit or finish Gustafsson on the ground, the fight may take some time to develop. Two of his title fight submissions have come in the fourth round, bucking the usual trend of late-round submissions getting more difficult to secure.

So even if the fight gets to the third round, Jones is still a big finishing threat. An Over bet could hedge the inside the distance play and if Jones gets a late finish they’ll both hit.

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Youngstown Connection

Florida Atlantic +3.5

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty was waiting on the Rays on Friday and likes Arkansas on Saturday.

The deficit is 1518 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo rolling with bama

Fresno State was heroic for Hondo Friday night as Carr wrecked Boise State to lower the accounts payable to 1,860 bryants.

Saturday night: Mr. Aitch is no homer, but nevertheless will drop 20 units on Bailey and the Reds. Also, he expects 'Bama to beat the massive number against Colorodao State - 20 units.

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Jimmy Boyd

5*(NCAAF) Michigan -17.5

4*(NCAAF) Maryland -5
4*(MLB) Pittsburgh Pirates ML -114

3*(NCAAF) Ball St -9.5
3*(NCAAF) Texas St/Texas Tech OVER 58
3*(NCAAF) Wyoming -4.5

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Cleveland Insider

CFB
2* Vanderbilt/UMass over 55
2* New Mexico State/UCLA under 67.5
1* Wake Forest/Army over 49
1* Cincinnati/Miami (OH) over 53.5
1* Oregon State/San Diego State over 54.5
1* Michigan/UConn under 52.5
1* Kansas State/Texas under 59.5

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TheSaturdayEdge

Maggiore
michigan -20, 3u

ND/MSTate o42.5