9-24-13

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Chip Chirimbes's Pick Pack
MLB Daily Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: Ryu, Hyun-Jin (L) vs. Cain, Matt (R)
Play: San Francisco (ML -113)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: September 24, 2013 @ 11:49:30 AM EDT


L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco 10:15 ET
Giants over Dodgers- Well, the defending World Series champions are 12 games under .500 and will sufferer their first losing season since 2008. The Dodgers meanwhile have clinch the West and are gearing-up for the playoffs and are just looking to remain healthy the rest of the way. The Giants Matt Cain (8-9, 4.06 ERA) has struggled against LA but this Dodgers line-up should be just a shell of itself.
Take the GIANTS!
Member Plays
Matchup: Philadelphia at Miami
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Tue)
Play: Miami (ML -108)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: September 24, 2013 @ 11:49:30 AM EDT

ATTENTION MEMBER: The Big Game Player has posted SIX STRAIGHT MLB 'Guaranteed' Vegas Insiders Winners and has another one Tuesday between the Rays and Yankees...Don't miss it!


Philadelphia at Miami 7:10 ET
Marlins over Phillies- Yesterday we posted The Marlins as out lone release and were rewarded with a 4-0 victory as Philadelphia has now dropped their last five. The Phillies could dropped to 20 games under .500 (28-47) with a loss here. Ryan Sandberg just signed as manager and it's players the Phillies need. Both teams stink but one team hasn't quit...Take MIAMI!


Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: Moore, Matt (L) vs. Kuroda, Hiroki (R)
Play: Tampa Bay (ML -110)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: September 24, 2013 @ 11:49:30 AM EDT


Tampa Bay at New York Yankees 7:05 ET
Rays over Yankees- The Yankees have played the entire season on the disabled list as 57 different players have made the line-up. They have made a great effort and managed to give the good fight but they just don't have enough. New York has six of their last nine while the Rays have won nine of their last 12. Matt Moore (15-4, 3.34 ERA) lost for the first time in more then three months his last time out (we had Texas) but is 2-0 against the Yankees this year. After a great start for New York Hiroki Kuroda (11-12, 3.17) is 0-5 with a 6.37 ERA in his last seven starts. Take TAMPA BAY!

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XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

· Play Texas -1.5 runs over Houston (TOP MLB PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
8:00 PM EST

Houston has lost 58 of the last 79 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 114 of the last 158 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season. Houston has lost 98 of the last 142 games coming off two or more losses and they have lost 133 of the last 179 games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher.

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· Play Pittsburgh -150 over Chicago Cubs (BONUS MLB PLAY)—RISK 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL
· Play Cincinnati -175 over New York Mets (BONUS MLB PLAY)—RISK 1% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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The Winners Circle

TUESDAY BASEBALL PLAYS

10* Play Detroit -180 over Minnesota MLB TOP PLAY

Scott Diamond has lost 22 of the last 31 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has lost 18 of the last 28 home games. Scott Diamond has lost 13 of the last 19 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost two of the last three games with an ERA of 7.31.


5* Play Cincinnati -175 over New York Mets MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Texas -300 over Houston MLB TOP PLAY
5* Play Cleveland -220 over Chicago White Sox MLB TOP PLAY

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TheSportsCapper

TUESDAY BASEBALL

100* Play Cincinnati -175 over New York Mets (TOP MLB PLAY)

Mike Leake has won 7 of the last 8 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 38 of the last 61 home games. Mike Leake has won 7 of the last 11 games when pitching in the month of September and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 0.84.

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50* Play Texas -1.5 runs over Houston (BONUS MLB PLAY)
50* Play Baltimore -150 over Toronto (BONUS MLB PLAY)
50* Play Pittsburgh -150 over Chicago Cubs (BONUS MLB PLAY)

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Jeff Benton

75 Dime
Miami/Phillies Under

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•Situational Analysis Of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL).
W-L Record: 53-9 over the last 5 seasons. (85.5%, +37.3 units)

**Note: This StatSystemsSports Situational Analysis situation's record this season is: (8-3 +2.9 units).

-- Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CLEVELAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts.
W-L Record: 66-14 since 1997. (82.5%, +41.9 units)

**Note: This StatSystemsSports Situational Analysis situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.4 units).

-- Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ARIZONA) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, in September games.
W-L Record: 51-15 over the last 5 seasons. (77.3%, +32.9 units)

**Note: This StatSystemsSports Situational Analysis situation's record this season is: (7-3 +3.2 units).

-- Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), in September games.
O/U Record: 59-24 over the last 5 seasons. (71.1%, +32 units)

**Note: This StatSystemsSports Situational Analysis situation's record this season is: (12-7 +4.2 units).

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Burns' Personal Favorite MLB - I'm playing on BALTIMORE !

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/24

Tampa Bay Rays -115 over the New York Yankees (MLB Baseball)
(System Record: 144-5, Lost last game)
Overall Record: 144-125
Also, listed below is your bonus extra picks for today:

Baltimore Orioles -160 over the Toronto Blue Jays (MLB Baseball)
Milwaukee Brewers +116 over the Atlanta Braves (MLB Baseball)
Pittsburgh Pirates -160 over the Chicago Cubs(MLB Baseball)

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RAS

118 Buffalo +2
129 UAB +21
151 Army +1

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Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Sep 24, 2013





Philadelphia @ MIAMI
MIAMI -110 over Philadelphia
The Phillies are another one of those teams that can’t get this season over quick enough. Philadelphia has dropped five in a row. They are finished playing at home this season now must play in an empty stadium with no atmosphere. The Phillies dropped the opener last night, 4-0. They had short AB’s and quick half innings at the plate. The Phillies epitomize the term, “playing out the string”. Zach Miner has made one start and 13 relief appearances this season. He’s not likely to go past four innings here because he does not have the stamina to do so. In just 22 innings over 14 appearances, Miner has walked 12 batters. That’s when he’s been called in to face one or two batters. In relief, Miner has an xERA of 6.02 and he also brings a 1.52 WHIP to the table. If the Phillies were playing any other team besides Miami or Houston, Miner would be a +170 pooch. We get the benefit of that value here by playing the favorite. Miami is not as bad as you might think. This team will not be a pushover next season. They have the potential of an outstanding starting staff with Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi and tonight’s starter, Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez comes in with a 4-5 record in 15 starts to go along with a serviceable 4.05 ERA. However, a look under the hood shows the seeds of something good. Alvarez owns good velocity and a very nice groundball tilt (58% of his last five starts). He'll need to find more strikeouts to take a sustained step forward but there are elements in his pitch mix that suggest he can do so. Get this; Alvarez has allowed a measly four extra-base hits in 400+ times he has thrown his four-seam fastball, slider, and change-up. Alvarez can pitch and is a very cheap price against Zach Miner and a Phillies team that just wants to go home.


Our Pick
MIAMI -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)






Arizona @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO -108 over Arizona
The D-Backs are likely spent. After a huge four-game series against the Dodgers followed by a trip to the thin air in Colorado, Arizona came in here last night and dropped a 4-1 decision. They have three more games here before closing out the season at home against the Nationals, making these final three road games of the season difficult to get up for. To make matters worse, Arizona must now face Tyler Ross. Ross is at home in PETCO Park, which suppresses runs by 10% and LHB HRs by 15%. Since joining the rotation July 23, all four of his home starts have been pure quality. Ross has a 2.58 xERA, 10.5 k’s per nine and a 60% groundball rate over 26 IP over his past five starts. The D-backs are 15th in runs scored and are just 35-42 on the road. This is not a favorable matchup, nor a favorable spot. Wade Miley has labored through the past month. The D-Backs have lost five of his past six starts and he’s been hit hard in many of them. Miley has never pitched as many innings as he’s pitched this season and one of the signs of fatigue is issuing free passes. He walked four in his last start in five innings and we’ve also seen a dip in his groundball rate from a solid 52% over his first 23 starts to just 38% over his last eight starts. Miley’s WHIP has also increased to an unacceptable level of 1.52 over his past five starts. We get the better pitcher in much better form, we also get the home side in the final week of the season and we get to spot less than a dime in a favorable situation. That works.

Our Pick
SAN DIEGO -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)






Milwaukee @ ATLANTA
Milwaukee +134 over ATLANTA


Of all the post-season teams, the Braves seem the most disengaged at the moment and that makes them and Freddy Garcia a very sweet fade here. The Braves were 3-hit last night in a 5-0 loss. They’ve lost two of three and five of eight while being shut out in three of those five losses. Garcia will fill in here but come playoff time, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. Garcia’s 1.31 ERA in two starts makes him grossly overpriced here but in actuality, that ERA is laughable and just proves how luck plays a huge factor in small sample sizes. Garcia’s line drive rate in those two starts is 37% (league average is 21%) and his has a 90% strand rate (league average is 72%). Garcia is a 37-year-old, washed up, two-pitch pitcher, one of which is an 87-MPH fastball. He does not possess the stuff to get major-league hitters out with regularity. The Brewers are going good right now and figure to put up some runs here.
Tyler Thornburg was unceremoniously welcomed with 4 HR’s in his MLB debut. Three more went yard in next two games but work in minors suggests more hr/f fluke than chronic issue. On plus side, Thornburg showed ability to carry his good strikeout rate to the majors and he’s been very good in his past three starts with a 2-1 record and a skills supported 2.00 ERA over 18 frames. Bullpen may be home long term, but intriguing enough to keep an eye on and certainly worth a wager against the Braves and Garcia.


Our Pick
Milwaukee +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

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Diamond Dog Sports

Red Sox (RL)
Cubs (RL)
Under Cubs
Under Padres

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Kyle Hunter

3*Kansas City/Seattle(Under)

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Power Play Wins

Today's play of the day

Pittsburgh Pirates

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HM Sports (2-2 in mlb last night they won with Minn and Milw, lost with Wash and houston)

3 units Houston +290 (texas has not won back to back games since 8/27-8/28)
3 units NYY +105
3 units Colorado +129
3 unit parlay (2-0 on parlays in 2013) pays 25.5 units
Houston +1.5 runs
Dodgers +104
Washington Nats +107

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Kelso

15 rays