9-26-13

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Jimmy Boyd

4* (NCAAF) Tulsa -2.5

3* (NCAAF) Virginia Tech +7

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Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Baylor Bears (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Bears haven't yet faced a quality opponent, but they sure have beaten up on the opposition so far. Last week, they defeated the UL Monroe Warhawks by a score of 70-7. Success on offense is nothing new for Baylor, as the Bears were the highest scoring team in the country last year.

Their defense couldn't stop anybody though, including the Warhawks, who came close to pulling off the upset in a 47-42 defeat last September. It looks like this year's team has vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball and that's going to make them tough to beat.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS)

Tommy Rees isn't having a lot of success at quarterback for the Irish and he had a particularly tough game last week. Rees completed 14 of 34 attempts for 141 yards, as the Irish hung on to win 17-13 over Michigan State. The Oklahoma Sooners come to town this weekend and if they hand the Irish a second loss, expect to see Notre Dame fall out of the rankings.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Missouri Tigers (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS)

The Tigers moved to 3-0 with a convincing road win over Indiana, but they have yet to face an SEC team. Missouri will host Arkansas State this week, then the schedule gets a lot tougher in October with games against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina. A win over Arkansas State will likely propel Missouri into the Top 25, but it could be short lived unless they can get an upset over Vanderbilt on the road.

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Cal-Oregon over/under ranks second-highest total ever
By JASON LOGAN

According to oddsmakers, the Cal Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks will score 1.4 points per minute when these Pac-12 rivals collide in Eugene, Oregon Saturday night.

If you’re slow on the math, the total for this game is at 84 points, which makes it the second-highest over/under line in college football since 1985 (as far back as our stats engine goes). In conversations with veteran Las Vegas oddsmakers, none remember seeing totals this high in the past.

Top billing goes to last year’s Week 14 Big 12 battle between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Baylor Bears, which closed at 88 points and was high as 88.5 during that week. Baylor edged OSU 41-34, playing under that massive number.

In fact, of the 11 games to boast a total of 80 points or more in the past 28 seasons, five have played over the number and six have stayed under. Over/unders in the 82-plus range – which there were five – saw the over hit just twice.

College football bettors have already tangled with an 80-point number this season. Books posted a total of 80 points for last week’s Lone Star State shootout between the SMU Mustangs and Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies beat the Mustangs 42-13, playing well under the total.

The Ducks are averaging 61.3 points per game – second most in the land – while the Golden Bears have hung an average of 33.7 points on opponents and rank second in the FBS with 437 passing yards per outing.

Cal’s defense is among the worst in the country, getting gashed for 42 points on 559.7 yards per game, but has played a tough opening stretch of schedule featuring Northwestern, Ohio State and FCS offensive power Portland State.

Both Cal and Oregon bring a 3-0 O/U record into Saturday’s contest.

Here’s a look at the 11 games with 80-plus totals since 1985:

80 – SMU 13, Texas A&M 42 (Sept 20, 2013)
82 – UCLA 26, Baylor 49 (Dec 27, 2012)
88 – Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 41 (Dec 1, 2012)
80 – Baylor 52, Texas Tech 45 (Nov 14, 2012)
82.5 – Baylor 63, West Virginia 70 (Sept 29, 2012)
80 – Washington 56, Baylor 67 (Dec 29, 2011)
82 – Texas Tech 42, Baylor 66 (Nov 26, 2011)
83 – Baylor 59, Oklahoma State 24 (Oct 29, 2011)
80.5 – Tulsa 30, Houston 70 (Nov 15, 2008)
80.5 – New Mexico State 13, Hawaii 50 (Oct 27, 2007)
80 – Colorado 21, Texas Tech 26 (Nov 1, 2003)

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Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Bowling Green Falcons (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

This week: -14.5 vs. Akron

Bowling Green has won four in a row against Akron, including a 24-10 road victory last season. The Falcons are also 5-0 ATS in their last five against the Zips. Akron may be hard-pressed to contain Bowling Green’s offense and turn the tide of the head-to-head series.

The Falcons are averaging 510.2 total yards through four games and they went off for 576 in its first Mid-American Conference contest (a 41-22 thrashing of Kent State). Matt Johnson is throwing for 250 yards per game and Travis Greene is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference showdowns and 5-0 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records (Akron is 1-3). They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.

Team to beware: Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

This week: +23.5 at North Carolina State

Central Michigan travels to N.C. State Saturday and its first foray into BCS competition this season did not end well. The Chippewas paid a visit to the Big House and trailed Michigan 56-6 after three quarters before losing 59-9. They are allowing 193.5 rushing yards per game (Michigan went for 242), which is bad news because the N.C. State offense is racking up 196.7 ground yards per contest.

Recent trends also do not favor Central Michigan. The team is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games, 2-9 ATS in its last 11 out of conference, 0-4 ATS in its last four against the ACC, and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against opponents with winning records (the Wolfpack are 2-1 following a 26-14 loss to Clemson).

Total team: Utah State Aggies (2-2 SU, 3-1 O/U)

This week: 61 at San Jose State

Utah State’s defense has been stingy this season, especially since an opening loss to Utah. The Aggies held Air Force to 20 points in a blowout win, crushed Weber State 70-6, and they just barely lost 17-14 on the road at Southern Cal last week.

Weber State passed for a mere 34 yards on 20 attempts and USC managed just 164 through the air. Friday opponent San Jose State may have to try its hand on the ground, but the team is averaging only 74.7 rushing yards per game.

The under is 4-0 in Utah State’s last four Friday dates and 6-0 in its last six against teams with losing records (San Jose State is 1-2). It is a solid 13-6 in the team’s last 19 overall.

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Jeff white

Va tech +7.5

SF -3

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

The Hokies look to build on their 19-8 ATS record in their last 27 Thursday games. Virginia Tech is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Yellow Jackets favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (9/25)

Game 103-104: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 94.477; Georgia Tech 98.904 Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 7 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+7 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Iowa State at Tulsa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 80.431; Tulsa 84.939 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 4 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 2 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-2 1/2); Over

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Sixth Sense

NFL

SF -3

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The wizard - niners -3.5

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cardinals on Wednesday and likes Georgia Tech on Thursday.

The deficit is 1323 sirignanos.

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Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at St. Louis

The 49ers look to snap their two-game losing skid and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. San Francisco is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/25)

Game 101-102: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.518; St. Louis 128.169 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 12; 46 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 42 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

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Cappers Access

Rams +3.5
Georgia Tech -7.5
Iowa St +2.5

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Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech: What bettors need to know

Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-7, 42)

Georgia Tech seeks to continue its strong start in the ACC while visiting Virginia Tech strives to continue its recent success against the Yellow Jackets when the squads meet Thursday night. Georgia Tech has won its first two ACC games for just the third time in 15 years and can place a firm grasp on the Coastal Division lead with a win over the Hokies, their biggest division threat. Virginia Tech has won three straight and five of the last six meetings.

The Yellow Jackets defeated North Carolina 28-20 last week and have won six consecutive ACC regular-season games, one shy of the school mark set from 2009-10. Virginia Tech has won three consecutive games since losing to Alabama in its opener, but had to go into triple-overtime before outlasting Marshall 29-21 last week. The Hokies beat Georgia Tech last season 20-17 in overtime.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Georgia Tech opened at -7.5 and has moved to a touchdown favorite. The total opened at 41.5 and has moved up to 42.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing ENE at 5 mph.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (3-1, 0-0 ACC, 0-3-1 ATS): Senior quarterback Logan Thomas is off to a poor start, completing 48.5 percent of his passes and being intercepted six times while throwing four touchdown passes. Thomas has rushed for 22 career touchdowns - one off the school mark for quarterbacks set by Tyrod Taylor (2007-10) - while redshirt freshman Trey Edmunds (who rushed for 132 yards against Alabama in his first collegiate game) has a team-best 352 rushing yards. Senior defensive end J.R. Collins has a team-best 4.5 sacks, senior middle linebacker Jack Tyler has a team-high 33 tackles while freshman cornerback Brandon Facyson (three) and junior safety Detrick Bonner (two) have combined for five of the Hokies’ nine interceptions for a defense that ranks fifth nationally (233.3 yards per game).

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (3-0, 2-0 ACC, 3-0-0 ATS): The Yellow Jackets are racking up 345.3 yards per game on the ground (fourth nationally) and have rushed for at least 324 in each game. Senior David Sims (211 yards) has yet to be tackled for a loss on 38 rushes, sophomore quarterback Vad Lee (seven passing touchdowns) has 180 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and senior Robert Godhigh (174 yards) is averaging 12.4 yards per rush and also has five receptions for 83 yards. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets are allowing 11.3 points (12th nationally) and are unsure whether junior outside linebacker Quayshawn Nealy (hamstring) or sophomore safety Chris Milton (wrist) will be available due to injuries suffered in the North Carolina game.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Virginia Tech leads the series 7-3.

2. Georgia Tech is 18-0 when scoring 40 or more points in coach Paul Johnson’s six seasons.

3. The Hokies scored their 18th blocked-punt touchdown during coach Frank Beamer’s 27-season tenure last week when senior Kyle Fuller made the block and junior Derek DiNardo recovered and returned it 11 yards for a touchdown.

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Iowa State at Tulsa: What bettors need to know

Iowa State Cyclones at Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (-2.5, 54)

Despite a lack of familiarity with each other historically, Iowa State and Tulsa are far from strangers. On Thursday, the Golden Hurricane welcome the Cyclones in the third game between the schools over the last 12 months. Iowa State kicked off its 2012 campaign with a 38-23 comeback victory over Tulsa on Sept. 1, but the Golden Hurricane returned the favor 31-17 in the Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31 to cap off the second 11-win season in school history.

Both schools are off to a slow start in 2013 and coming off difficult losses. Iowa State fell to 0-2 for the first time since 2007 in a 27-21 home setback against Iowa on Sept. 14 despite a career day from sophomore receiver Quenton Bundrage. Tulsa was routed by Oklahoma 51-20 on the same day, allowing scores on nine of the Sooners’ 11 possessions while also surrendering 607 yards of total offense.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE: Tulsa opened as a 3-point favorite and has been bet down to -2.5. The total has remained steady at 54 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 80s with clear skies and winds blowing SSE at 8 mph.

ABOUT IOWA STATE (0-2, 0-2 ATS): Bundrage set career highs with seven catches for 146 yards and three touchdowns, getting two of those scores over the final 4:27 as the Cyclones attempted to rally from a 20-point deficit. Sophomore quarterback Sam Richardson made his fourth career start against Iowa, but was still hampered by the sprained ankle he suffered in a season-opening loss to Northern Iowa. Coach Paul Rhoads suggested that if Richardson – who is also dealing with a groin injury – is limited Thursday, backup Grant Rohach will take over.

ABOUT TULSA (1-2, 0-3 ATS): The Golden Hurricane were unanimously selected to repeat as Conference USA West Division champions, but have been held to less than 95 yards rushing in each of their losses to Bowling Green and Oklahoma. "You can't just plan on becoming more physical and have it happen," coach Bill Blankenship said. "You have to grow into it. I hope that's where we are now." Senior running back Trey Watts has been a bright spot, however, and ranks third in the nation with 200 all-purpose yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Cyclones are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
* Golden Hurricane are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. Big 12.
* Under is 13-5 in Cyclones last 18 road games.
* Under is 7-2 in Golden Hurricane last 9 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tulsa has won eight in a row at home, but each of the last four victories – and five of the last six – have come by six points or fewer.

2. Iowa State has yielded an average of 223 rushing yards over its first two games, which ranks 108th in FBS.

3. The Golden Hurricane’s two rushing touchdowns against the Sooners were their first of the season.

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Tale of the tape: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

The NFC West was supposed to be the power conference but the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams have come off the tracks to start the year. One will right the ship while the other one will continue its slide when they meet on Thursday Night Football. We break down both sides with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Niners offense has stalled to start the season, averaging just 14.7 points – 29th in the NFL. Injuries have depleted their once-potent offense, including a hamstring ailment for TE Vernon Davis. He’s questionable for Thursday but did return to practice this week. The Niners’ rushing attack has lost its teeth, with QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore averaging only 101.7 yards on the ground.

The Rams are coming off a 31-7 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. St. Louis missed out on plenty of gains due to careless drops by its receiving corps. QB Sam Bradford, who hadn’t been sacked in the first two games, was sacked six times and knocked down numerous others. The rushing attack is limping out for only 57 yards an outing, behind RB Daryl Richardson.

Edge: San Francisco

Defense

St. Louis has been a cupcake on defense, giving up 28.7 points per game – 27th in the NFL. The Rams biggest issue is their passing defense, which is allowing 288 yards through the air. However, they were bulldozed by Dallas RB DeMarco Murray for 175 yards last week. In their last meeting, San Francisco rushed for 148 yards versus the Rams.

The Niners defense is also a broken unit, with Aldon Smith in rehab, Patrick Willis nursing a groin injury and Justin Smith slowed by a bum shoulder. San Francisco budged for 179 yards rushing in a loss to the Colts last weekend and 172 yards in Week 2’s defeat to the Seahawks. The 49ers do ranked eighth versus the pass – 199 yards per game – which is pretty good considering they’ve faced Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.

Edge: San Francisco

Special teams

With two teams struggling to find the end zone, field goals could determine Thursday’s game. San Francisco kicker Phil Dawson is 4 for 5 on FG attempts, missing a 40-plus yarder. St. Louis kicker Greg Zuerlein is a perfect 5 for 5, connecting on his lone 40-plus yard attempt.

The Rams kick returner Benny Cunningham is averaging 23.4 yards per kickoff return but St. Louis is picking up just 3.3 yards per punt return. St. Louis had a return TD burned by penalties last Sunday. The 49ers’ Perrish Cox is picking up 27.3 yards per kick return and Kyle Williams is averaging only 5.5 yards per punt return.

San Francisco punter Andy Lee has been busy, punting 16 times this season for 46.1 yards per punt. Rams punter Johnny Hekker is second in the NFC, averaging 48.8 yards on 14 punts this season.

Edge: Draw

Notable quotable

"Everybody goes through situations like this. A tipped ball, a shoe-string tackle on a third-down scramble by the quarterback where he has 40 yards to run. Their offense is a huge concern of ours because they're so talented and well coached. We're going to have to play real good defense this week." – Rams coach Jeff Fisher.

"We've just got to get back to us, and being one. We'll be fine. We feel we can do whatever we want, like before." – Niners RB Frank Gore after arguing with head coach Jim Harbaugh on his lack of carries.