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Re: 11-23-08
RAS
UC Davis -1
RAS
UC Davis -1
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Re: 11-23-08
King Creole Sports!:
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
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1:00pm ET / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
With 4 straight wins by the Dolphins, there’s playoff fever down here in South Florida these days. This big divisional battle with the Patriots now has post-seasons implications. There’s also a rare scheduling situation as Miami hosts their 3rd straight home game. Each of the last 2 (vs Oakland + Seattle) went Under the Total.
12-2 O/U L8Y for all NFL teams playing their THIRD straight home game... when the first 2 games went UNDER the Total. Favorites of 21 < pts have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U.
The Dolphins are actually on a current 0-4 O/U run in their last 4 games. The database tells me it’s time to go the other way.
16-4 O/U L10Y for Game 9 > favs of 4 < points playing off 4+ Unders in a row... and 6-0 O/U L8Y when the OU Line is 38 > points.
Despite winning their last 4 games, Miami has lost the ‘cash’ in their last 2. That rare role give us more OU ammo: 8-1 O/U L10 Y for all NOVEMBER teams off BB SU wins but BB ATS losses.
New England comes into town off the Thursday night SU home favorite loss to the New York Jets (34-31). That result has them active in 3 HIGH-scoring Systems. 10-1 O/U s’2002 as road dogs off a SUATS home THURSDAY loss.. and 5-0 O/U L3Y. Now let’s create a set based on their favorite role last week.
This System has been virtually DEAD-on so far this year: 10-2 O/U for ALL teams off a SU home fav DIVISION loss. Our final query looks at last week’s divisional opponent: 10-2 O/U last 2 years for all NFL teams off a SU loss to the NEW YORK JETS.... and 7-1 O/U as underdogs.
1:00PM ET / TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
The winless Lions dropped another one last week, with the 31-22 loss to the Panthers. There has been very strong OVER tendencies for teams who have yet to win a game this late in the year.
4-0 O/U since 2001 for all Game 10 > WINLESS home teams.... and 6-1 O/U for all winless home DOGS of 3 > pts L10Y.
Detroit allowed a whopping 264 rushing yards in that road loss.
6-1 O/U L4Y for ALL home dogs off a SU road loss in which they allowed 250+ rushing yards. There’s been ONE qualifier in this System so far this season (DETROIT Game 3 vs the Packers.) Result? Game went OVER by 28 points.
As this is a non-division DOME game, let’s head to the Indoor System that I created in the database: 28-7 O/U L3Y for all Game 9 > ‘DOME HOMERS’.... 16-3 O/U vs NON-division opponents.... and 8-1 O/ U as pure home DOGS.
The Lions have gone OVER the Total in each of their last 3 games. ‘DOME HOMERS’ off 3+ Overs are 8-1-1 O/U L2Y... and 3-0-1 O/U this season.
Despite their home Florida location, the Buccaneers are also very comfortable in the controlled environments. The Bucs went 4-1 in DOMES last year... are 1-0 O/U this year... and 6-1 O/U as dome FAVORITES in the last 7 years.
With a solid 7-3 SU record, Tampa will be laying a bunch of points on the road this week.13-3 O/U L7Y for all Game 9 > .700 or greater road favs vs a < .250 opponent... and 11-1 O/U when the OU line is > 38 points.
Big road favs have been PERFECT so far this year.3-0 O/U for all non-div BIG road favs of 8 > pts off a SU win....
1:00pm ET / CHICAGO BEARS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
This one qualifies in the EXACT same System as our above play: As this is a non-division DOME game, let’s head to the Indoor System that I created in the database:
28-7 O/U L3Y for all Game 9 > ‘DOME HOMERS’.... 16-3 O/U vs NON-division opponents.... and 8-1 O/ U as pure home DOGS.
Both teams come in off MULTIPLE losses in a row. That's a good sign for a high-scoring game... in the right conditions.
10-2 O/U last 5 years for all NFC favorites playing off BB SU losses (Bears) vs an opponent off 3 or more SU losses in a row (Rams).... this has gone 8-1 O/U in the last 3 seasons... and is ALREADY a PERFECT 2-0 O/U so far this season.
If we focus on the 2nd HALF of the season, big DOGS off multiple losses are a very strong OVER play.
7-0 O/U Last 3 years for all NFC Conference big dogs of 7+ points playing off BB SU losses (Rams) vs a fellow NFC Conference opponent (Bears).
The Bears got their asses handed to them last week vs the Green Bay Packers... losing by a whopping final score of 37-3 on the division road. Another EXTREMELY good indicator of high-scoring potential.
15-1 O/U in the last 4 years for ALL NFL teams playing off a road loss of 34 or more points (Bears).... and a PERFECT 10-0 O/U when also taking on an opponent off a SU loss (Rams).
We've got a matchup of a NFC North teams versus a NFC West team. When these tow division hook up, the results historically favor an OVER.
10-2 O/U last 3 years for all NFL regular season games between the NFC NORTH and the NFC WEST.... and 8-1 O/U when the OU line is 40 or more points.
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Re: 11-23-08
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Buffalo -3 over Kansas City
On paper the Bills matchup unbelievable on offense against this KC defense. The offensive line has a huge size advantage which should help the Bills run the ball and pass the ball with ease today. This game is too important for Buffalo to lose. The Chiefs are a better team at home, but I do not think they can keep up scoring today. This should be a pretty entertaining game with more points then people think. Look for Buffalo to get a big win on the road. Take the Bills.
Dolphins +1 over Patriots
The Dolphins went into Foxboro early this season and not only beat the Patriots, but crushed them. Matt Cassell has played great for New England, but he just isn't going to cut it. The Dolphins have been a bad football team for a few years and a win today would really help this team turn the corner and get back to a dominate threat in the AFC East. Take Miami.
Chargers +2.5 over Colts
Payton Manning is probably still the best QB in the NFL, but he has not been lights out this year at all. The Chargers had some early season struggles and their playoff dreams will be over with a loss tonight. San Diego really put a hurting on the Colts last year with Sproles in the kick return game. I look for this to be the X-Factor tonight. This is a huge Sunday Night Game and at home I give the edge to the Chargers.
College Football
No plays today.
NBA Basketball
TWolves +10.5 over PistonsComment
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Re: 11-23-08
Dave Malinsky
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: 4* Over 42
We were not sure that we would ever be using the following phrase this season – “The Kansas City offense is providing a major headache for their opponent this week”, but we indeed have that here. And on a warm afternoon in the Midwest, it means that the points come easily in this one.
As each week goes by with Tyler Thigpen as the starting QB we are seeing the Chiefs get more comfortable in their new offensive designs. Thigpen’s mobility enables them to spread the field and get a lot of receivers out into coverage, and he is doing a solid job of finding them – over the last four games the offense has averaged 22.5 points, and Thigpen completed 85-140 passes for 945 yards in that span, with a sparkling ratio of eight touchdown passes vs. only one interception. And with Larry Johnson having had some game contact to get his timing back, there will also be a run balance that has been lacking for much of the stretch.
That style of play creates major headaches for the Bills. Not only do they have to travel off of a short practice week, hich makes adjusting to these new looks difficult enough, but they will be missing starters Donte Whitner and Jabari Greer in the secondary, and possibly Bryan Scott, Whitner’s back-up, as well. For a team that has struggled all season to get a pass rush (only 15 sacks in 333 opposing pass plays), that disheveled secondary is going to be hard-pressed throughout the game, especially since Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, who each have 55 receptions already, can beat just about anyone man-to-man that Dick Jauron has at his disposal.
Jauron’s team can still win here, however, because they can score on their own. The Kansas City defense continues to shuffle lineups each week, and lacks both talent and chemistry. The Chiefs are simply without a strength, lacking the ability to stop the run (1,654 yards and 16 rushing TD’s at 5.1 per carry); rush the passer (six sacks in 316 pass plays); or cover receivers (65.8 percent completions and 7.77 yards allowed per pass). It is the ideal unit for Trent Edwards to get his confidence back, which turns this into a game dominated by the offenses.
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Re: 11-23-08
Steven Budin-CEO SUNDAY'S PICK 25 DIME PLAY
MINNESOTA
This price is between 2 1/2 and 3.
If you have +3, I suggest you buy up the 1/2 point to make Minnesota a 3 1/2 point underdog so you get the win should Jacksonville prevail by only a field goal.
If you have Minnesota +2 1/2, either shop around for 3 or buy up the 1/2 point to +3 so you get a push even if Jackonsville wins by a field goal.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
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