9-29-13

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Sam Martin 10*

Game: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Sep 29 2013 1:00PM
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

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DHayes2

Cowboys -1.5

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LA Syndicate

Added

MLB
Under Yankees
Under Rangers

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Sports Boss

4* Lions, Bills, Falcons
3* Steelers, Texans, Giants, Chargers

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ATS Lock Club

7* Under Bucs
7* Raiders
6* Ravens
6* Pats

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NEW ENGLAND VS. ATLANTA
September 29, 2013 - 8:30 PM

Pick: Pinnacle @ -2.5 -113 Atlanta
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Sep 29 - 8:30 PM

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I expect the Falcons to be the more "desperate" team in this matchup. They're 1-2 and chasing the Saints. They can't afford to fall to 1-3 here. On the other hand, the Patriots are 3-0. While the Dolphins have the same record, the Pats likely aren't too concerned about not making the playoffs, something that has to be priority #1 for the Falcons. While needing to win doesn't always translate to actually winning, I expect that sense of urgency to come into play on Sunday.

Before getting too excited about the Pats' 3-0 record and their strong defensive numbers, keep in mind that they've faced the Jets, Bills and Bucs. Two of those three teams have a rookie QB and the third team just benched their QB, as he had the worst numbers in the league. Needless to say, facing Matt Ryan at the Georgia Dome represents an entirely different ballgame.

As for the Falcons, their loses came against teams (NO and Miami) that currently have a perfect 6-0 combined record. They also came on the road. The Falcons won their lone home game (by 7) and are 15-4 SU here the past 2+ seasons.

While the Pats did beat the Bucs, they're still only 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS against NFC teams the past couple of years. During that span, the Falcons are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS against AFC opponents.

While the Falcons do indeed have some injuries, the same can be said of the Pats. Of course,* New England did also suffer those offseason personnel losses at the receiver position. While he's obviously still very dangerous, thus far, Brady's numbers are nothing special.

Brady got the better of Ryan when the two went head-to-head before. However, that was back in 2009 and it was at Atlanta. Ryan's got a few more years to gain experience, while by 2009 Brady was arguably past the point where the extra years could help him. Perhaps more importantly, now the rematch is at Atlanta. I say Ryan and co. get some revenge, getting themselves back into the playoff race in the process. 10* SNF Main Event

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Trev Dog Sports

NFL Arizona Cardinals ML +117

NFL Detroit Lions -2
NFL Texans PK

NFL Bengals -3

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King Creole 3* over phi/den 57.5

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Vegas Nightmare

TOP PLAY - New England +2.5
Seattle -2.5
Kansas City -4.5
Dallas -2
NE/ATL under 51

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Stephen Nover

ML 201 BAL vs 202 BUF double-dime bet

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CHICAGO VS. DETROIT
September 29, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: 5dimes @ -3 -101 Detroit
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Sep 29 - 1:00 PM

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Bears are 3-0. The Lions are 2-1. The Bears were 2-0 in the series last season and have won nine of the last 10 meetings. Yet, its the Lions who are listed as small favorites. That will have many tempted to take the points. I believe the Lions are favored for good reason though.

The nationally televised blowout of Pittsburgh is fresh in people's memories. Keep in mind that the Bears barely eked out wins in each of their first two games, a 3-point win vs. Cincinnati and a 1-point win vs. Minnesota. (The Lions beat the Vikings by 10.)

While the Bears' defense has been scoring points, they've also been giving up some. They're tied for 19th in scoring defense at 24.7 points per game and rank 25th in yards allowed at 383. Note that Chicago starting defensive tackle Henry Melton will undergo season-ending knee surgery. Also, note that Tillman, who normally covers Calvin Johnson, is questionable.

For all their trouble over the years, the Lions are actually a profitable 18-13-1 (21-11 SU) the last 32 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points, 1-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. They know they desperately need to find a way to beat this team and I look for them to finally step up and get it done. 8*

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Dwayne Bryant 3* under sea/hou

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Veritas Sports Investments
4-1 last Sun
NFL
Houston+1

Score
Eagles over 58

Vip action
Colts-9

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Dave Cokin NFL (2-0 yesterday )

NY Jets

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Sports bank
500 detroit