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5 Unit Play. #226 Take New Orleans -6½ over Miami (8:40p.m., Sunday, Sept 29 ESPN)
(Week #4 Game of the Weekend)
Both teams come into this Monday Night matchup perfect but too bad somebody has to lose. The Saints get this game in their backyard and boy is it hard to win in New Orleans especially when Sean Payton has the headset on at home. I can't believe I'm getting ready to say this but the Saints are winning games on their defense not their offense. The Saints ?D? hasn't given up 20 points in either of their 1st 3 games and last year their defense was giving up points at will. The Superdome on Monday nights can be crazy and with the Saints playing defense and Drew Brees behind center I see the Saints winning this game, covering and giving the Dolphins their 1st loss of the season. The Saints are 11-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite against a team coming off a win. Miami usually struggles on Monday night games and in their last 5 Monday night games they are 1-4 ATS. The Saints are also 6-1 ATS in Week #4 games and all these trends point to the home team and again anytime I can get Sean Payton with Drew Brees at home on MNF! I'm biting and I'm cashing.
It is a must-win scenario for the Tampa Bay Rays and host Texas Rangers on Monday if they wish to advance to a second must-win situation. The two teams tied for the second American League wild-card spot and will break the tie for the right to meet the Cleveland Indians in Wednesday’s one-game round. Texas has won seven straight games and Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 10 contests.
Rays ace David Price starts against Rangers rookie Martin Perez and Texas announced that power-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz will be activated for Monday’s game. Cruz’s 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs ended Sunday and he has fared well against Price, going 6-for-12 with two homers against the left-hander. Price is fired up about getting the ball in the tiebreaker. “This is a moment that I want to be in,” he said. “I want to be able to relish the moment and go out there and have fun.”
TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE: Texas opened as a +119 home underdog and has been bet down to +105, taking Tampa Bay down from -129 to -116. The total has stayed steady at 7.5 runs.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s, clear skies and winds blowing south at 6 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH David Price (9-8, 3.39 ERA) vs. Rangers LH Martin Perez (10-5, 3.55)
Price didn’t face the Rangers this season but has traditionally struggled against them, going 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in eight career outings. After being sensational in July and August, Price was 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five September starts. He has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last six turns.
The 22-year-old Perez won seven of his last nine decisions as one of Texas’ most-reliable starters over the second half of the season. He didn’t face the Rays this season and his lone career outing against them was a five-inning stint last season in which he gave up two runs and seven hits. Perez has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last 11 starts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Texas.
* Under is 5-2 in Prices last seven starts vs. Rangers.
* Rays are 2-5 in Prices last seven starts vs. Rangers.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Texas defeated Tampa Bay in the AL Division Series in 2010 and 2011 en route to back-to-back World Series appearances.
2. The Rangers earned the right to host the play-in game because they won the regular-season series 4-3. The teams split a four-game series in mid-September.
3. Rangers OF Alex Rios is batting .435 with two homers and seven RBIs in 23 career at-bats against Price.
Tampa Bay has won 71 of the last 116 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher and they have also won 80 of the last 134 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Tampa Bay has won 48 of the last 80 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have won 89 of the last 157 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers.
100* Play Tampa Bay -110 over Texas (TOP MLB PLAY)
David Price has won 30 of the last 48 road games and they have also won 20 of the last 28 games when playing in the month of September. David Price has won 10 of the last 16 games when pitching on a Monday and he has an ERA of 2.95 over his last three starts.
100* Play New Orleans -6 over Miami (NFL TOP PLAY)
New Orleans has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games coming off a home win by ten points or more. New Orleans has covered the spread in 17 of the last 23 games when playing in a dome stadium and they have covered the spread in 14 of the last 17 games when playing as a home favorite.
· Play UNDER 48 New Orleans/Miami (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST
Miami has gone UNDER the total in 62 of the last 100 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also gone UNDER the total in 106 of the last 174 games coming off a win. Miami has gone UNDER the total in 94 of the last 169 games when playing as an underdog and they are only allowing 15 points a game on defense in road games this season.
· Play UNDER 7.5 Tampa Bay/Texas (TOP MLB PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
8:00 PM EST
Texas has gone UNDER the total in 21 of the last 31 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and they have also gone UNDER the total in 48 of the last 78 home games. Texas has gone UNDER the total in 78 of the last 136 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have gone UNDER the total in 29 of the last 46 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game.
Dolphins +6 at Saints (47): On balance the Saints are the better football team and have played very well at home over the past half decade. But there’s plenty of room for an improved Miami to compete all the way even if they ultimately fall short on the scoreboard. MIAMI.
Great fade 2013
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Dennis Ball
Monday
Dolphins +6 at Saints: A classic battle of 2 undefeated clubs on Monday night football. The Fish have surprised many including myself with their smash mouth defense and flair for the dramatic on offense. I’m betting it will come down to the final minutes and Miami either upsets or within a FG. DOLPHINS.
GamingToday’s Consensus Picks September 30, 2013 6:16 AM by GT Staff
NFL Monday Night Football
226 New Orleans Saints -7: Huge game in New Orleans tonight as both the Saints and the Dolphins will try and stay perfect, but looking back we find that home teams in the NFL that start the season at 3-0 are 31-4 SU when facing a non division team and 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU ATS win.
225 Miami Dolphins / 226 New Orleans Saints OVER 48½: There wasn’t much defense in the NFL on Sunday it this game looks to keep those overs going, this game opened at 47½ and looks to go at least as high as 49.
Baseball Wild Card Tiebreaker
981 Tampa Bay Rays / 982 Texas Rangers UNDER 7½: Last game of the season for one of these two teams as the winner will travel to Cleveland tomorrow and play the Indians for the final wild card spot. Both teams will be tight early and the under is the play.
Baseball Play of the Day September 30, 2013 6:22 AM by GT Staff
Baseball Wild Card Tiebreaker
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers +120 at 5:05 p.m. PST
Must take the home dog here as the usual fade by the Texans did not happen this year as they ended their season with a seven game win streak, the place will be rocking tonight in this 5:05 start and our TV’s will be in constant switch mood going from the Saint game to this game. Cruz may be back in the lineup for the Texans tonight and that could seal the deal.
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