10-1-13

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Reds at Pirates: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 6.5)

The Pittsburgh Pirates participate in their first postseason game in 21 years when they host the Cincinnati Reds in Tuesday’s National League wild-card game. Pittsburgh secured home-field advantage by sweeping a three-game series in Cincinnati and the winner of this one-game round meets the St. Louis Cardinals in the divisional round. The Reds are in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons but staggered down the stretch with five consecutive losses to match a season-worst skid.

Cincinnati planned to start Mat Latos but scratched him due to elbow soreness and will instead go with Johnny Cueto, who has a stellar 8-2 mark with a 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 13 career starts at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park. The Pirates opted for left-hander Francisco Liriano, who struggled against the Reds this season with a 0-3 record and 3.70 ERA in four starts. Pittsburgh standout Andrew McCutchen (.317 average, 21 homers, 84 RBIs and 27 steals) had an MVP-caliber campaign while Cincinnati star Joey Votto (.306 average, 24 homers, 73 RBIs) set a franchise record by reaching base 316 times.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE: The Bucs opened as -120 home faves and have moved to -130. The total has remained at 6.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow out to left field at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Johnny Cueto (5-2, 2.82 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02)

Cueto has excelled in two starts since returning from an injury and has allowed one earned run and eight hits in 12 innings. He blanked the Pirates on one hit over eight innings on May 31 and then went on the disabled list for the second of three times this season. Cueto is 13-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 21 career starts against Pittsburgh.

Liriano has been fantastic at home, sporting an 8-1 mark and 1.47 ERA in 11 outings. Though he set a career best for victories, he struggled in September with a 1-2 record and 5.14 ERA in five starts. Liriano had a sharp outing against Cincinnati on Sept. 20 when he gave up two runs and three hits in eight innings while receiving a no-decision.

TRENDS:

* Reds are 0-5 in their last five overall.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last six road starts vs. Pirates.
* Pirates are 0-4 in Liriano's last four starts vs. Reds.
* Over is 4-1 in Reds last five playoff games.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Cincinnati 2B Brandon Phillips (shin) expects to play after being hurt while fouling a ball off his leg on Saturday.

2. McCutchen is batting .231 with three homers in 39 career at-bats against Cueto, while Votto is 2-for-10 against Liriano.

3. Pittsburgh won the season series, 11-8 – including a 5-4 mark at home.

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MLB betting: Looking at NL Wild Card starters

Major League Baseball's postseason officially starts Tuesday with the National League Wild Card game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates and Reds will renew acquaintances for the seventh time in the past 10 games for each club.

Mat Latos was manager Dusty Baker's first choice to make the start, but the big righty has a bone chip in his elbow which is causing him discomfort, so Johnny Cueto gets the call.

The Bucs will call on southpaw Francisco Liriano to take the hill.

Here is a look inside the numbers for Tuesday's starting pitchers.

Liriano versus the Reds - 0-3, 3.70 ERA in four starts.

- The Reds roster bats .260 (32-for-123) with four homers and 12 RBIs versus Liriano.
- Todd Frazier is 3-for-9 with a pair of solo homers off the Pirates lefty.

Cueto versus the Pirates - 1-0, 0.73 ERA in two starts.

- The Pirates roster bats .209 (45-for-215) with five homers and 17 RBIs versus Cueto.
- Andrew McCutchen is 9-for-39 (.231) with three homers and five RBIs versus Cueto.

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NHL betting: Top goalscorer prop bet

The National Hockey League makes a welcomed return on Tuesday, Oct. 1.

One of the most popular prop bets in the world of hockey betting is, obviously, the top goalscorer in the league.

Steven Stamkos (of course) of the Tampa Bay Lightning leads the way with a total of 51.5, but there are a host of other players that should be able to compete for the Rocket Richard Trophy.

Here is a look at 2013-14 regular season total goals for the top scorers in the NHL.

Odds courtesy of SportsInteraction.com:

Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning - Over/Under 51.5
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals - Over/Under 48.5
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins - Over/Under 32.5
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins - Over/Under 40.5
James Neal, Pittsburgh Penguins - Over/Under 35.5
Jeff Carter, Los Angeles Kings - Over/Under 36.5
Zach Parise, Minnesota Wild - Over/Under 30.5
John Tavares, New York Islanders - Over/Under 37.5
Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks - Over/Under 34.5
Rich Nash, New York Rangers - Over/Under 32.5
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks - Over/Under 29.5
Jordan Eberle, Edmonton Oilers - Over/Under 29.5
Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks - Over/Under 33.5
Jarome Iginla, Boston Bruins - Over/Under 29.5
Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks - Over/Under 34.5
Daniel Sedin, Vancouvery Canucks - Over/Under 30.5
Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets - Over/Under 24.5
Nazem Kadri, Toronto Maple Leafs - Over/Under 21.5
Evander Kane, Winnipeg Jets - Over/Under 28.5

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NHL Pacific Division preview: Wide-open race provides value
By SEAN MURPHY

There’s no clear favorite to win the NHL’s Pacific Division with the Ducks, Kings, Canucks and Sharks all looking like potential frontrunners.

Here’s a quick look at how all seven teams stack up entering the new season.

Anaheim Ducks (2012: 30-12-6)

Odds to win division: 4-1
Season point total: 98.5

Why to bet the Ducks: Losing Bobby Ryan wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Ducks have some emerging young stars ready to pick up the slack and, of course, the nucleus remains in place with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf leading the way. You can be sure veterans Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu are hungrier than ever.

Why not to bet the Ducks: The same reason that most are excited about the Ducks, their young talent both up front and on the blueline, is also a cause for concern. Will the gradual youth movement work? Or perhaps the better question is, how quickly can the Ducks return to Stanley Cup status.

Season point total pick: Over 98.5

Calgary Flames (2012: 19-25-4)

Odds to win division: 300-1
Season point total: 63.5

Why to bet the Flames: I’ll be brief as to be honest, there’s little reason to lay your hard-earned money on the rebuilding Flames. Maybe the fact that everyone is counting them out will light a fire under them. The element of surprise is certainly there.

Why not to bet the Flames: There is little veteran leadership to turn to, nor is there much young talent that’s ready to step to the forefront right now. Karri Ramo is an unproven commodity in goal, where the Flames could be the weakest team in the league.

Season point total pick: Under 63.5

Edmonton Oilers (2012: 19-22-7)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season point total: 90.5

Why to bet the Oilers: The young Oilers are brimming with talent and poised for a breakout year if they can stay healthy. New GM Craig MacTavish didn’t stand pat during the offseason, making a number of key moves to improve his team. Andrew Ference and David Perron could turn out to be underrated pick-ups.

Why not to bet the Oilers: We’ve heard this story before. Every year it seems that the Oilers are on the cusp of greatness, only to fall flat by the midway point of the season. Question marks abound in net, where Devan Dubnyk has yet to prove he can shoulder the load of being the No. 1 guy.

Season point total pick: Over 90.5

Los Angeles Kings (2012: 27-16-5)

Odds to win division: 2-1
Season point total: 104.5

Why to bet the Kings: Continuity is key for the Kings, as they continue to ice virtually the same team that won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. They boast world class talent all over the ice, with goaltender Jonathan Quick the cornerstone. L.A. has the ability to win in so many different ways.

Why not to bet the Kings: Are things getting stale in SoCal? The Kings seemed to be stuck in neutral for parts of last season, but perhaps that can be chalked up as a Stanley Cup hangover. After the top five forwards, there isn’t a ton of scoring depth up front.

Season point total pick: Under 104.5

Phoenix Coyotes (2012: 21-18-9)

Odds to win division: 8-1
Season point total: 90.5

Why to bet the Coyotes: With the off-ice distractions in the rearview mirror, the Coyotes can get back to focusing on the product on the ice. Adding Mike Ribeiro should help a team that was offensively challenged last season. Goaltender Mike Smith is in line for a solid bounce-back season.

Why not to bet the Coyotes: The fact that a defenseman, Keith Yandle, led the team in scoring last year is more than a little concerning. After Ribeiro there are few proven goal scorers to turn to. Mike Smith is a proven commodity in goal, but he’ll need to stay healthy for the Yotes to contend.

Season point total pick: Under 90.5

San Jose Sharks (2012: 25-16-7)

Odds to win division: 3-1
Season point total: 102.5

Why to bet the Sharks: It’s getting close to “now-or-never” time for the Sharks. The core of this team continues to age, but that should only leave them hungrier than ever to reach the ultimate goal. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dan Boyle are all heading into free agency at the end of the season, so the motivation to perform is there.

Why not to bet the Sharks: Has head coach Todd McLellan worn out his welcome in San Jose? Whatever he’s doing doesn’t seem to be working as the Sharks continue to fail in the postseason on a yearly basis. Only a couple of minor offseason moves were made to boost the team’s chances.

Season point total pick: Under 102.5

Vancouver Canucks (2012: 26-15-7)

Odds to win division: 3-1
Season point total: 102.5

Why to bet the Canucks: A coaching change could work wonders in Vancouver as John Tortorella attempts to light a fire under an aging but still talented team. Roberto Luongo is once again the unquestioned starter in goal and that should take a load off the time-tested netminder.

Why not to bet the Canucks: The Canucks didn’t make any sort of splash in the offseason, only bringing in role players, Brad Richardson, Mike Santorelli and Yannick Weber. Beyond the top two lines, where is the offensive production going to come from?

Season point total pick: Over 102.5

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Maple Leafs at Canadiens: What bettors need to know

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens (-130, 5.5)

With new divisions, new rules and dozens of players with new teams, it's nice for fans to have something familiar from the get-go. They'll get just that Tuesday night as the Montreal Canadiens host the Toronto Maple Leafs in the season opener for both teams - and the latest chapter of one of hockey's oldest rivalries. Both teams exceeded expectations a season ago, with Toronto halting a lengthy playoff drought and Montreal recording the second-best record in the East.

Following up on their respective strong seasons will be a tall task. The Maple Leafs face a goaltending controversy before they've even played a game, and will be without their top free-agent acquisition for the first 10 regular-season contests. The Canadiens will ice a lineup similar to the one that won them the Northeast Division crown but ultimately ran out of magic en route to a first-round playoff exit at the hands of the Ottawa Senators.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS

ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS (2013: 26-17-5, 5th East): The acquisition of Jonathan Bernier in an offseason trade with the Los Angeles Kings gave Toronto a legitimate netminder to challenge incumbent James Reimer for the starting role. While head coach Randy Carlyle hasn't yet named a No. 1 goalie - or even a starter for the season opener - Reimer looks to have the edge. He posted a .925 save percentage and a perfect mark in the shootout during the preseason, while Bernier had an .891 save percentage and was remembered most for scrapping with Buffalo's Ryan Miller.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (2013: 29-14-5, 2nd East): After seeing his team hang with the class of the conference during last year's lockout-shortened season, few could have blamed general manager Marc Bergevin for making one or two bold moves for the short-term. But Bergevin is staying the course, favoring minor tinkering over a significant shake-up. The only change of consequence came up front, with Montreal adding veteran winger Danny Briere to a lineup already full of diminutive, slick-skating forwards.

TRENDS:

* Maple Leafs are 5-1 in the last six meetings in Montreal.
* Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.
* Road team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Canadiens are 2-5 in their last seven home games.

OVERTIME:

1. Toronto won three of five meetings with Montreal last season, with the home team prevailing just once.

2. The Maple Leafs and Canadiens are part of the NHL's revamped Atlantic Division, joining old division rivals Buffalo, Boston and Ottawa and joined by Detroit, Florida and Tampa Bay.

3. Toronto will be without F David Clarkson until the end of October after he was given an automatic 10-game suspension for leaving the bench during the Maple Leafs' brawl with the Sabres.

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Louisville Cardinals are the frontrunners in the mutant AAC, getting off to a perfect 4-0 start and taking on the worst team in the conference – 0-4 Temple – Saturday. Books have set UL as a 34-point road favorite in Philadelphia.

The Cardinals are coming off a 72-0 win over Florida International and have an important matchup with Rutgers on a short week in the following game. If Louisville gets up big in the second half, expect head coach Charlie Strong to start resting starters in preparation for Thursday’s home date with Rutgers, leaving the backdoor wide open for the Owls.

Letdown spot

Take a look at the teams behind the 2-2 Cleveland Browns in the NFL standings. Go ahead, we’ll wait. The Browns have won back-to-back outings, taking down the Vikings and Bengals as underdogs and QB Brian Hoyer is making Cleveland fans forget all about Brandon Weeden, who is nursing a thumb injury.

The Browns’ turnaround has convinced oddsmakers enough to set them as 4-point home chalk hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Bills are also a surprising 2-2 and coming off an upset win of their own, taking down Baltimore in Week 4. While Buffalo could also be in “letdown” mode, we’re siding with the points in this matchup.

Schedule spot

The Toronto Maple Leafs have huge expectations heading into the NHL season after a Game 7 collapse versus Boston in the first round of the playoffs. The Leafs added goaltending support and some talent up front, but a tough back-to-back opening slate could put Toronto behind right out of the gate.

The Maple Leafs open the 2013-14 schedule in Montreal for an Original Six rivalry Tuesday, then hop on a plane for Philadelphia Wednesday night. Toronto is still working on chemistry and teams are continuing to get into game shape. The Leafs could be a little worse for wear two games into the season.

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Tuesday's Champions League betting cheat sheet

The UEFA Champions League makes a welcomed return as the Group Stage continues Tuesday. Group F heats up with an incredibly appetizing match in London as the boys from Naples try to stop the razor-sharp Arsenal attack.

Arsenal v Napoli (+110, +260, +275)

Why bet Arsenal: Despite a ton of injuries, Arsenal continues to play sublime football in both England and Europe. The Gunners are on a nine-match winning streak in all competitions having not dropped points since an opening day 3-1 loss at the hands of Aston Villa.

Key players out/doubtful: Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski

Why bet Napoli: The Partenopei are healthy and enjoying a pretty good run of form themselves with five wins and just one draw (at home to Sassuolo) in Serie A. The club sits second in the league table just two points behind the high-flying AS Roma and defeated Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund 2-1 in their group stage match back on Sept. 18.

Key players out/doubtful: Christian Maggio

Key betting note: There have been over 2.5 goals in five of Napoli's previous six matches in Champions League.


Celtic v Barcelona (+800, +400, -250)

Why bet Celtic: Celtic boss Neil Lennon and the club will be excited that the Catalans will be without the services of the world's best player, Lionel Messi. The Scottish side will also be confident having defeated Barca in Champion's League last season at home in Glasgow.

Key players out/doubtful: Steven Mouyokolo

Why bet Barcelona: Just because Messi isn't in the lineup, does not mean Barca is not without goalscoring weapons. Now, in the Argentine's absence, could be the time for young stars such as Neymar and Cristian Tello to have on impact on the European stage. The club is rolling in La Liga having won all seven of its matches.

Key players out/doubtful: Lionel Messi, Ibrahim Afellay, Jordi Alba, Carles Puyol

Key betting note: Celtic and Barca have gone over the 2.5 goal total in their last three meetings in Glasgow.

Tuesday's other matches with odds:

Zenit v Austria Vienna (-400, +550, +1400)
Ajax v AC Milan (+175, +240, +170)
Basel v Schalke (+160, +240, +188)
Borussia Dortmund v Marseille (-350, +500, +1100)
Porto v Atletico Madrid (+190, +230, +163)
Steaua Bucharest v Chelsea (+425, +260, -125)

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College football line watch: Jump on NIU now
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9)

Through the first five weeks of the season, no price in games involving NIU has moved against the Huskies. If anything, numbers have tended to trend slightly in NIU’s direction, including last week at Purdue when the Huskies were modestly bet up from 3 to 4 at most Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Although there was not much reaction to the earliest posted -9 for the Huskies this Saturday at Kent State, NIU’s support base has acted more like a growing groundswell each week. Perhaps because it mostly flies under the national radar in the MAC, price adjustments in Huskies games have tended to move slowly and inexorably, rather than in the quick bursts we see associated with many other well-supported “public” sides.

After QB Jordan Lynch and the explosive offense triggered last week’s 55-24 demolition of Big Ten rep Purdue, however, expect appetite for NIU to appear a bit more quickly in the marketplace, likely pushing this price up to the next key number at 10 against the Golden Flashes.

Whether 10 acts as a resistance point or not remains to be seen.

At least by jumping on the Huskies ASAP, those NIU backers are not going to have to worry about laying a double-digit price.

This number is very unlikely to drop, so Huskies supporters might as well get their positions now while the price remains in single digits.

Spread to wait on

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers (+3.5)

After home losses to Navy and Missouri in September, Indiana backers are laying low at the moment. So low, in fact, that they offered very little resistance when the price for this Saturday’s game versus Penn State was bet up from an opening 2.5 and right through a key number resistance point at 3 in early wagering action.

As of Monday afternoon, most Las Vegas wagering outlets were posting the Hoosiers at +3.5 or 4 for Saturday’s Big Ten clash at Bloomington.

We suspect that there is more run left in this price move toward the Nittany Lions, who have mostly offered good spread value for second-year coach Bill O’Brien; Penn State is now 11-5 its last 16 on the board.

Moreover, the marketplace will also begin to digest some of the hard-to-believe series trends that are so lopsided in the direction of the Nittany Lions, who have not lost straight up to the Hoosiers since entering the Big Ten in 1993 and have a spotless 16-0 straight up record all-time versus IU.

Don’t be surprised for this number to eventually test the next key numbers up the scale, perhaps all of the way up to the “big” 7, as buy pressure for Penn State doesn’t figure to abate anytime soon.

Later in the week, IU likely attracts some investors, but we advise Hoosier backers to sit tight for a few days to see how high this number inflates. No surprise if the Nittany Lions will be forced to lay near a full TD at sometime before kickoff, at which time we expect some IU money to materialize at the Nevada sports books.

Total to watch

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears

Like those who like to see how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut can devour at the annual Nathan’s Contest each 4th of July at Coney Island, there is a similar curiosity in the wagering marketplace regarding the most-extreme “totals” each week. And along with Oregon, no team generates that sort of interest like high-octane Baylor, which hosts West Virginia on Saturday.

“Totals” devotees certainly recall the Bears-Mountaineers shootout last season in Morgantown, when Geno Smith tossed a whopping 8 TD passes for WVU in its wild 70-63 win.

Geno has graduated to the NFL, and the Mounties aren’t quite spinning the scoreboards as they were the past couple of seasons, but Baylor has definitely picked up the slack as it scores better than point-per-minute in the early going this season for HC Art Briles.

Baylor’s early schedule has been mostly flown under the national radar against the likes of Wofford, Buffalo and UL-Monroe, so this is the first time we’ll get to see how the marketplace reacts to a “total” on a featured Bears game. And after scoring 69, 70, and 70 in the first three, we anticipate some “over” pressure no matter where oddsmakers post the “total” for Saturday’s game vs. WVU.

With thin markets in earlier games, “totals” on Bear games to date still moved upward 2-3 points in the first three contests. Oddsmakers are also not expected to fool around any longer with “totals” involving teams like Baylor or Oregon; the books had no hesitation posting the Ducks’ “total” vs. Cal in the low 80s last week, though the knowledge of upcoming monsoon-like conditions in Eugene prevented excessive buy pressure on the “over” for Ducks-Bears.

We’re very curious to see how the marketplace reacts to the next “total” involving Baylor...especially if weather forecasts are for a fast track in Waco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report
By JASON LOGAN

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ScLiveDogs

Why we like the Reds on Tuesday at +126...the Pirates will be coming into Tuesdays Wild Card game after a three game sweep against the Reds as well as being winners of their last 6 of 8 games. With that being said, the Pirates will be coming off of a day off and into a playoff atmosphere that they have not been exposed to in years past, while the Reds have been in this situation before. The Reds will be pitching Johnny Cueto who comes into Tuesdays game while allowing just 1 run over his last 12 innings of work. Cueto also comes into this game with extra rest which should play well to his advantage as he has posted a 3-1 record with a 2.03 era when pitching on 6 or more days of rest. To take Cueto a step further, he has an excellent track record against this Pirates team where he is 13-4 with a 2.37 era against them. Cueto has faced the Pirates twice this year with both starts being IN Pittsburgh while allowing a combined 1 run through 12 innings of work on 3 hits, 2 BBs & 9 Ks. When we look at Cueto last six outings IN Pittsburgh dating back to 2011, Cueto carried a 1.76 era through 41 innings while allowing 25 hits, 9 BBs, 28 Ks & 1 HR. Through 209 ABs, this Pirates team has a combined .220 average with just 5 HRs off of Cueto. The Pirates will be pitching Francisco Liriano who will be coming into Tuesdays start after pitching the most innings that he has had in a season since 2010. We are going to match that with the fact that Liriano has faced the Reds four times in his career, with all four outings coming in 2013. In those four outings, Liriano allowed a 3.75 era through 24 innings on 17 hits, 10 BBs, 28 Ks & 4 HRs. Also worth noting is that Liriano went 0-3 in those starts while the Pirates were 0-4 in those starts. Look for both bullpens to come out firing with the extra days rest, but we do give the edge to the Reds bullpen where past playoffs have shown that power bullpens win playoff games. Expect Cueto to be the MVP of this game. Play on the Reds at +126.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

NL Wild Card game
-- Cueto was on DL three times this year; he is 1-0, 1.50 in two starts coming off DL last time, 1-0, 1.46 in two starts vs Pittsburgh this season.
-- Liriano is 1-1, 3.24 in his last four starts, 0-3, 3.70 vs Cincinnati this year.

Reds lost their last five games, scoring a total of 8 runs. Pirates are 5-1 in their last six games; they're 11-8 vs Cincinnati this year, 5-4 at home.

Reds are 41-41 on road this season. 27-25 vs lefty starters; Pittsburgh is 76-55 vs righties; they went 51-30 at PNC Park, which is hosting first-ever playoff game-- Pirates were last in playoffs in 1992.

Under is 8-3 in Cueto starts this season, 6-3-1 in Liriano's last 10 home starts, 5-1 in last six Cincinnati games, 3-1 in last four Pirate games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

MLB Top Play

Cincinnati Reds +125

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Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati hits the road tonight for the NL Wild Card game and looks to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 0-4 in Francisco Liriano's last 4 starts against the Reds. Cincinnati is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.489; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.341 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Toronto at Montreal

The Canadiens open the season at home tonight and look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 3-13 in its last 16 Tuesday games. Montreal is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Toronto at Montreal (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.730; Montreal 12.190 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Under

Game 3-4: Washington at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.347; Chicago 11.262 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+150); Over

Game 5-6: Winnipeg at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.731; Edmonton 12.397 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-150); Under