10-3-13

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DCI College Football

The Daniel Curry Index
Week 6 Scores/Predictions

Thursday, October 3, 2013
Big 12 Conference
Texas 33.7 at IOWA STATE 22.3, 7:30 pm ET

Pacific-12 Conference
Ucla 38.3 at UTAH 32.1, 10:00 pm ET

Sun Belt Conference
Western Kentucky 28.5 at ULM 25.7, 7:30 pm ET

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Jeff White

Iowa State +8.5

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The Gold Medal Club CFB Selection 02/10/2013

#308 Utah +5.5

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Thursday Night Football Betting: Bills at Browns

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-4, 40.5)

What had the makings of a lost season has evolved into a remarkable turnaround for the Cleveland Browns, who will seek their third consecutive victory when they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Browns appeared to have raised the surrender flag after losing their first two games and trading away star running back Trent Richardson. Instead, third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer has guided Cleveland to two straight wins and into a tie atop the AFC North.

The Bills expected some growing pains with rookie E.J. Manuel as their starting quarterback, but they are coming off an impressive 23-20 home victory over Baltimore to get back to .500. Manuel struggled against the defending Super Bowl champions, but Buffalo rode an impressive ground game and stout defensive performance to stifle the Ravens. The Bills and Browns have split six all-time meetings, with Buffalo prevailing 24-14 in Cleveland last season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Cleveland opened as low as -3 and has moved to -4. The total opened at 41 and moved down to 40.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with a 61 percent chance of thunder showers and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+5.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Browns -5

ABOUT THE BILLS (2-2, 3-1 ATS): Buffalo has major injury concerns entering Thursday's matchup as running backs C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (knee) were both hurt after combining for 164 yards on the ground against Baltimore. Jackson said he has a torn MCL in his left knee but expects to play while X-rays revealed no structural damage for Spiller, who will test the ankle before Thursday's game. Manuel threw for only 167 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and a lost fumble, but Buffalo's defense collected four sacks and intercepted quarterback Joe Flacco five times, including two by rookie linebacker Kiko Alonso.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-2, 2-2 ATS): First-year coach Rob Chudzinski is not about to tamper with a winning formula, saying he will stick with Hoyer at quarterback - "Certainly he's been the spark that I had hoped for," the coach said - even though 2012 first-round pick Brandon Weeden is ready to return after missing two games with a thumb injury. Hoyer has developed a great chemistry with tight end Jordan Cameron, who had 10 catches in Sunday's 17-6 win over Cincinnati and has 16 receptions and four touchdowns in the past two games. Cleveland's defense limited the Bengals to 266 total yards, including 63 on the ground in 20 attempts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bills last five vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Bills held the Browns to 240 yards in last season's 24-16 win.

2. Hoyer is the first Cleveland QB to win his first two starts since Mark Rypien in 1994

3. Alonso is only the fourth linebacker in league history to intercept four passes in September, a list that includes Hall of Famer Jack Lambert and former Super Bowl MVP Chuck Howley.

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Tale of the Tape: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Two vastly different ground attacks highlight Thursday night's showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the host Cleveland Browns. The Bills boast one of the most robust rushing games in the NFL through the first month of the season, but has struggled defending the ground game. The Browns have the opposite problem, limiting opponents' rushing yards but struggling mightily to generate their own.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Buffalo is still looking for consistency from its passing game behind rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. The Bills rank 28th in the league in passing yards per game at 198, with just five touchdowns and three interceptions. The rushing attack is another matter altogether, with Buffalo sitting second in the NFL at 152 yards per game. What makes that statistic stand out is the fact that feature back C.J. Spiller has been underwhelming so far in 2013, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and still looking for his first rushing touchdown of the year.

The Browns' decision to trade lead back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts without getting a rusher in return signaled the start of a dreadful committee that has resulted in one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL. Cleveland is averaging a paltry 76 rushing yards per game - the sixth-worst mark in the league - and are one of only two teams, along with St. Louis, without a TD on the ground. The passing game has improved dramatically with Bryan Hoyer under center, ranked 13th in total yards (991) and tied for ninth in touchdowns (seven).

Edge: Buffalo

Defense

The Bills' pass defense has been mostly mediocre, allowing the 10th-most yards in football (1,108) and the ninth-most touchdowns (eight). The Bills do have a star in the making in rookie LB Kiko Alonso, who has racked up four of the Bills' league-leading nine interceptions. Where Buffalo really struggles is in rush defense, where it has surrendered the sixth-highest yardage total and the ninth-highest yards-per-attempt average (4.2). The Bills have managed the red zone well, however, allowing just one rushing store.

As poorly as the Browns run the ball, they don't let other teams do it, either. Cleveland's rush defense is the class of the NFL through the first four weeks, allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.9) and limiting opponents to a longest run of just 14 yards. Strangely, however, the Browns have permitted five rushing touchdowns on the year, tied for the third-most in the league. Cleveland has been stingy through the air, as well, limiting opponents to 213 yards per game while allowing just two touchdowns - tied for the fewest in the NFL.

Edge: Cleveland

Special Teams

Bills placekicker Dan Carpenter has connected on 10-of-11 field goals so far this season, including two 27-yarders and a 22-yarder in Buffalo's 23-20 triumph over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. The Bills have had just two kick returns for a total of 37 yards, while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on seven punt returns. Buffalo has done well in minimizing opponents' returns, allowing the ninth-fewest yards per kickoff return (20.1) and sitting near the middle of the pack in average return yards per punt (8.4).

Cleveland has had plenty of experience on kickoff returns - bringing back nine to date - and is averaging 25.9 yards per return, good for eighth in the NFL. The Browns' 7.7-yard average on punt returns ranks 15th out of 32 teams. Cleveland is limiting opponents to 20.3 yards per kickoff return - ranking 10th overall - and has surrendered just 67 total yards on 10 punt returns. Veteran placekicker Billy Cundiff has struggled to date, converting just five of his seven field-goal attempts. Both of his misses came in last week's win over Cincinnati.

Edge: Buffalo

Notable quotable

"Sitting at 2-2, it's not where we wanted to be. But after an 0-2 start, it's as good as we could have done. Sitting there with a lot of games to go, but still fighting in the division. You can't ask for any more." - Browns tackle Joe Thomas

"It just shows you, like I've heard Fred (Jackson) saying, 'We're not the same Bills.' I would say fans are starting to believe. And we're going to keep believing and keep pushing." - Bills safety Da'Norris Searcy

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Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones (+8, 56.5)

A win over Kansas State quieted the critics briefly, but Texas still has some work to do to get back national attention. The Longhorns look to put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season when they visit Iowa State on Thursday. Texas coach Mack Brown is under fire to put a championship-caliber team back on the field, and even school legend Earl Campbell recently called for his firing.

“Nobody likes to get fired or leave a job, but things happen,” Campbell told KRIV-TV in Houston. “I’d go on record and say yes, I think it’s time.” Brown is under contract until 2020 with one of the largest annual salaries in the NCAA but is just 24-18 since a loss to Alabama in the 2009 National Championship game. The Cyclones don’t have quite the storied history of the Longhorns but are always a pesky opponent for the Big 12’s top tier and are coming off an impressive win over Tulsa.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Texas opened at -9 and has moved to -7.5. Total moved from 56 to 56.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, with 73 percent chance of thunder showers, winds blowing S at 3 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 35-17 in Cyclones' last 52 games overall.

Western Kentucky Hilltopppers at UL Monroe Warhawks (+7, 48.5)

The Warhawks will be without starting QB Kolton Browning Thursday. He is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a quad injury. Browning, who has passed for 967 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions, will be replaced with backup sophomore Brayle Brown, who is making his first start. UL Monroe is 2-3 on the year, having lost two straight and allowing 101 total points in defeats to Baylor and Tulane.

Western Kentucky comes into Thursday riding back-to-back wins over FCS Morgan State and Navy, covering the spread in both games. Hilltoppers RB Antonio Andrews has been a dominant force on offense with 727 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. WKU will be out for revenge after losing to ULM in overtime during last year’s homecoming.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: WKU opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -7. Total steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s, 20 percent chance of thunder showers with winds blowing SE at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (+5.5, 60.5)

After winning its first three games in convincing fashion, UCLA begins Pac-12 play on Saturday at Utah, where the 13th-ranked Bruins have been outscored 75-12 in their last two visits. The Utes have the personnel to keep pace with a UCLA offense averaging 52.7 points, but Utah's defense remains a question mark. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and UCLA should be particularly well-rested after routing New Mexico State 59-13 on Sept. 21.

Utah opened the last two seasons with four straight conference losses before dropping this year's opener 51-48 in overtime to Oregon State on Sept. 14. The Utes followed the close loss with an impressive 20-13 win at BYU on Sept. 21, when sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson continued his strong play with 273 passing yards and two touchdowns. Wilson needs a repeat performance against UCLA, which is seeking its first 4-0 start since 2005 after winning its first three games by a total of 93 points.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.
LINE: UCLA opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 61.5 to 60.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 40s with 71 percent chance of snow and winds blowing NNW at 13 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.
* Over is 8-2 in Bruins' last 10 games overall.

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Dodgers at Braves: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (+129, 6)

The Atlanta Braves have lost seven consecutive playoff series and might have to face Los Angeles ace Clayton Kershaw twice in order to end that dismal streak. Atlanta hosts the Dodgers in Thursday’s opener of the National League Division Series and a Game 1 victory over Kershaw would bolster the Braves’ odds of prevailing. The Dodgers are back in the postseason after a three-season absence and turned their season around with a stretch of 42 wins in 50 games.

Los Angeles will ride the bats of shortstop Hanley Ramirez, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and outfielder Yasiel Puig in the series and is moving outfielder Carl Crawford into the leadoff spot for the opener. Atlanta’s most consistent bat belongs to first baseman Freddie Freeman and he’ll receive offensive support from outfielder Justin Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson. The Braves opted to leave struggling Dan Uggla off the series roster and will go with journeyman Elliot Johnson as the starting second baseman.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with clear skies and winds blowing SSE at 2 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83 ERA) vs. Braves RH Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11)

Kershaw led the majors in ERA and WHIP (0.92) and had an NL-leading 232 strikeouts while putting together a season that will likely earn him his second Cy Young Award. He hasn’t faced Atlanta since 2011 and is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four career outings against the Braves. Kershaw limited opposing hitters to a .187 average in 16 road starts while going 8-3 with a 2.14 ERA.

Medlen was superb down the stretch, going 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five September starts while being named NL Pitcher of the Month. He went 1-0 against the Dodgers this season, allowing one unearned run and seven hits over 13 2/3 innings and is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in eight career appearances (three starts). Medlen was 9-3 with a 2.38 ERA after the All-Star break.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Atlanta.
* Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
* Dodgers are 2-5 in the last seven meetings in Atlanta.
* Dodgers are 2-5 in the last seven meetings.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Braves won the season series, 5-2, but all the meetings were in the first half of the season before the Dodgers caught fire.

2. Atlanta OF Justin Upton is just 3-for-29 with nine strikeouts against Kershaw from his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

3. Los Angeles OF Andre Ethier (ankle) has batted once since Sept. 13, while OF Matt Kemp (ankle) will miss the postseason.

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Pirates at Cardinals: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-152, 6.5)

The St. Louis Cardinals endured a season-long battle with division rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati before winning the National League Central, but they will line up against a familiar foe when they host the Pirates in Game 1 of the NL Division Series on Thursday. St. Louis surged into the playoffs with a six-game winning streak while allowing only six runs. Pittsburgh will have to slow the highest-scoring team in the NL in its first postseason appearance since 1992.

Pittsburgh won the season series 10-9 and beat up on the Cardinals at home, but St. Louis took the last four matchups, including a three-game sweep in September that served as a springboard for a 17-5 finish. The Pirates rely on a strong home-field edge - See: raucous crowd in Tuesday's 6-2 wild card win over Cincinnati - but they were among the best teams in the majors with a 44-37 record on the road. The return of Jason Grilli as closer could give the Pirates an edge at the back of the bullpen.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 80s with a 40 percent chance of thunder showers and winds blowing south at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH A.J. Burnett (10-11, 3.30 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94)

Burnett enters the playoffs off back-to-back wins against Cincinnati to give him nine consecutive seasons with double-digit victories. He'll be facing St. Louis for the seventh time this season and the results have been dramatically different between home and away. Burnett gave up two runs in 21 innings at PNC Park but was tattooed for 10 runs over 7 1/3 innings in two late-season starts in St. Louis.

Wainwright led the majors in complete games (5) and tied for the NL lead in victories after winning his last four decisions, including seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball against Pittsburgh on Sept. 7. He absorbed consecutive beatings by Cincinnati before rebounding to permit only seven runs in his last five starts. Wainwright is 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and four complete games in 17 home starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 16-4-2 in the last 22 meetings in St. Louis.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Pirates are 0-4 in the last four meetings in St. Louis.
* Cardinals are 7-3 in Wainwright's last 10 starts vs. Pirates.

WALK-OFFS:

1. St. Louis' balanced lineup can be a nightmare - it featured five players who had at least 78 RBIs and batted between .296 and .319.

2. Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen is 12-for-28 and wild card hero Russell Martin (two homers) is 9-for-22 versus Wainwright.

3. Cardinals 2B Matt Carpenter is 9-for-21 with two doubles and two triples against Burnett.

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Line Lounge
Thursday, 10/03/2013-CFB


Take # 307 UCLA (-5) over Utah


UCLA looks to extend their winning streak on Thursday night as they travel to Utah to face the 3-1 Utes. UCLA's offense looks on point, as sophmore QB Brett Hundley is averaging 335 yards a game. UCLA's offense is packed with fire power, with WR's Evans and Fuller snagging 25 passes. Also, RB Jordon James is 5th in the country, averaging 141 yards a game. This game is lining up to be an offensive shootout and it will be up to the Utes offense to keep pace.


The Utes lean on dual-threat QB Wilson to create their offense, and it will be up to the Bruins' linebackers to contain him. They should have some experience with this though when they faced QB Martinez in the game against Nebraska. Utah's only decisive win came against a weak team, and have struggled to gain much of a lead in all their other games. They will have travel keeping up in this game.


Look for Hundley to pick apart Utah's backs and for the Bruins defense to hold up their end on the field.


Projected Score: UCLA 35 UTAH 21

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MLB

Playoffs

Pirates-Cardinals
Burnett is 2-1, 2.07 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under; he is 3-1, 3.67 in six starts vs St Louis this season.
Wainwright is 4-0, 1.80 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1), 1-0, 3.00 in three starts vs Pittsburgh.

Pirates won six of their last seven games; they are 10-9 vs St Louis this year, but lost last four meetings, allowing 33 runs. Cardinals won their last six games, outscoring opponents 27-6. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

Dodgers-Braves
Kershaw is 2-1, 1.67 in his last four starts; he hasn't faced Atlanta since giving up six runs in 15.2 IP in two starts vs Braves in 2011.
Medlen is 5-0, 1.84 in his last six starts; he allowed one unearned run in 13.2 IP in two starts against LA back in spring. Under is 6-0-1 in his last seven starts.

Dodgers jogged to division title; they lost four of last five games with seven of last nine games staying under the total. Kemp is out, Ethier is banged up, but they've got quality depth.

Braves also had easy time winning division; they won three of last four games, with three of last four going over total. Atlanta is 5-2 against Dodgers this year, but 3-0 home sweep in May was before Puig came to big leagues.

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NHL

Series records
-- Flames lost four of last six games with Washington.
-- Devils won their last three games against Pittsburgh.
-- Bruins won their last four games with Tampa Bay.
-- Blues won five of their last six games with Nashville.
-- Kings lost four of their last five visits to Minnesota.
-- Road team won last two Florida-Dallas games.
-- Rangers won three in row, six of last seven games vs Phoenix.
-- Sharks were 7-0 vs Vancouver LY, sweeping Canucks in playoffs, with two of their four wins in overtime

Totals
-- No totals trends for Flames-Caps.
-- Under is 15-6-1 in last 22 Devil-Penguin games.
-- Under is 5-1 in Lightning's last six visits to Boston.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Nashville-St Louis games.
-- Under is 5-2 in Kings' last seven visits to Minnesota.
-- No totals trends for Panthers-Stars.
-- Three of last four Ranger-Coyote games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Canucks' last twelve visits to San Jose.

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Today's NFL Picks

Buffalo at Cleveland

The Browns look to follow up their 17-6 win over the Bengals last weekend and build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Browns favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/2)

Game 301-302: Buffalo at Cleveland (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.637; Cleveland 135.701 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44 Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2); Over

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Texas at Iowa State

The Cyclones look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a losing SU record. Iowa State is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+9). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3 Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/2)

Game 303-304: Texas at Iowa State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas 90.794; Iowa State 90.431 Dunkel Line: Even; 60 Vegas Line: Texas by 9; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+9); Over

Game 305-306: Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 78.331; UL-Monroe 68.886 Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 7; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-7); Under

Game 307-308: UCLA at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 106.916 Utah 97.147 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 10; 64 Vegas Line: UCLA by 5 1/2; 60 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-5 1/2); Over

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Pezgordo 2013 CFB Picks – Week # 6
307 UCLA -4 (1 unit)
Briefly, UCLA is the best team in the PAC 12 South and depending on how well their defense develops, they are probably the only team in the conference capable of hanging with Stanford and Oregon. This is a legit top 15/20 team and borderline top 10. They have the best QB in the league outside of that guy up in Oregon, and they are loaded with athletes and playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Any of you who read our PAC 12 Prospectus knows I don’t have the same opinion or outlook concerning Utah. They are a very average team who already lost to another average team at home a few weeks ago in Oregon State.
I often talk about recruiting (which is an obvious correlation to talent on hand) at USC and UCLA levels because that is the standard for other PAC 12 teams. Utah doesn’t have anywhere near the talent that UCLA has.
Utah has only added a quartet of four-star recruits since it was announced the team would make its move to the Pac-12. I don’t mean to keep beating a dead horse, but as I have mentioned on numerous occasions, Utah just doesn’t have the talent to compete with the better teams in the conference.
UCLA 38, Utah 27