10-7-13

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NFL NY JETS at ATLANTA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (NY JETS) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

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Falcons look to end losing skid Monday vs. Jets
by Zach Cohen

Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -9, Total: 44

The Falcons look to get back on track when the Jets come to town on Monday night.

Atlanta was unable to beat the Patriots Sunday night, losing 30-23 and falling to 1-3 on the year. The Jets also came away empty-handed in Week 4, as they were destroyed on the road against the Titans, 38-13. Since 1995, the Falcons are 3-1 (SU and ATS) against the Jets producing double-digit wins in each home meeting. The last matchup between these teams was a 10-7 win-and-cover in favor of the Falcons in December 2009 in New Jersey. Both teams are staring at negative trends for this game. Over the past two seasons, the Jets are 0-8 ATS off of 1 or more overs in a row, and are also 31-55 ATS (36%) off of a road loss since 1992. Atlanta, however, is 15-31 ATS (33%) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992 and is 3-17 ATS (15%) after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games during that span. The Jets are going to be without top WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring), while top TE Kellen Winslow is questionable with a knee injury. The Falcons must continue to run without their star RB Steven Jackson, who is out for another two weeks with a hamstring injury.

The Jets are now 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) after suffering a beatdown against the Titans in which Jake Locker threw all over their defense before going down with a hip injury. New York rookie QB Geno Smith followed up his best performance of the year with a subpar outing, as he went 23-of-34 for 289 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. In his two road games, Smith has thrown 1 TD and 5 INT. Smith also lost two fumbles in the game, including a truly bone-headed one where he tried to put the ball behind his own back to avoid a pass rusher. RB Bilal Powell played well in the game for New York, rushing for 66 yards on 14 carries while also catching three passes for 42 yards. After gaining just 3.1 YPC in his first two games, Powell has averaged a stellar 5.2 YPC over his past two contests. TE Kellen Winslow was the Jets’ leader in the receiving game with six catches for 73 yards, and he and WR Stephen Hill will likely be Smith's top targets with the injury to WR Santonio Holmes. New York’s defense struggled to stop the Titans, but the offense didn’t help them by giving the Titans good field position all game. The Jets D has really played well all season, leading the NFL with 14 first downs per game allowed and placing second in the league in total defense (283 total YPG, 4.3 yards per play allowed) and yards per carry (3.0 YPC). But it all starts with Smith having to play mistake-free football if the Jets are to have a chance to keep this game close against the Falcons.

Atlanta nearly pulled out an amazing win on Sunday night, trailing 30-13 with less than five minutes to play and giving itself a chance to tie the game when a fourth down pass from the Patriots 10-yard-line fell incomplete. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw plenty of passes in this game trying to bring his team back from a large deficit, as he went 34-for-54 for 421 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He now has 1,330 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 8 TD and 3 INT on the year and will be asked to throw a lot without top RB Steven Jackson and due to the Jets' run defense being so difficult to gain yards on. TE Tony Gonzalez finally turned in the performance Atlanta fans have been waiting for with 12 receptions for 149 yards and 2 TD versus New England. He entered the game with just 11 catches for 93 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. WR Julio Jones had 108 yards on six catches in last week's loss, but outside of one 49-yard play, Patriots CB Aqib Talib did a pretty good job shutting the superstar down. Jones leads the NFL with 481 receiving yards, including 218 yards after catch (2nd in league), but WR Roddy White (high ankle sprain) is getting healthier each week and was able to play on 74 of 76 offensive snaps last Sunday. With six straight seasons of 80+ catches and 1,150+ yards, White is expected to give this offense another boost. Where the Falcons really struggled in Week 4 was in the running game where they got just 58 yards combined from RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling on 15 carries (3.9 YPC). For the season, Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense (82 YPG), despite a strong 4.4 yards per carry (11th in league). Defensively, the Falcons have done an excellent job stopping the run (92 YPG, 6th in NFL), but have been burned for 301 passing YPG (7th-most in league). That is a big reason why opponents have 6.1 yards per play against them, the fourth-most in the NFL. Injuries to CB Asante Samuel (thigh) and LB Akeem Dent (ankle) are not helping the cause. Both players are listed as questionable for Monday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Sunday with the pirates -$150Cardinals.

For Monday "Mr Chalk" likes the Tigers -$150/A's.

"Mr Chalk" is 106-67 +$600 for the 2013 MLB season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

4* (NFL) NY Jets +10

3* (MLB) Detroit Tigers ML -148

MLB TOTAL 188-186 -39 Units
27-25
48-50
113-111

NCAAF TOTAL 27-24 +16 Units
5-4
7-5
15-15

NFL TOTAL 9-22 -55 Units
1-4
5-7
3-11

OCTOBER TOTAL 8-13 -14 Units
0-3
3-3
5-7

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From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

NY JETS (437) AT ATLANTA (438)
Latest Line: Atlanta -9.0; Total: 44.0

The slumping Falcons look to get back in the win column when they host the Jets Monday night. New York has a minus-8 turnover margin in two road losses this season, and was crushed 38-13 at Tennessee last week. Although Atlanta is 1-3 SU, the three defeats have been by a total of 17 points to teams with a combined 11-1 SU record. This will be a game of contrasting style with the Jets looking to run the football with RB Bilal Powell (215 rushing yards in past two weeks) to control the clock, while the Falcons aim to air it out, especially with top RB Steven Jackson (hamstring) still out. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 333 YPG and 8 TD this year. The Falcons are 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in the past five meetings, including an ugly 10-7 road win when they last met the Jets in 2009.
FORECASTER: Atlanta 23, NY Jets 18

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Early Seabass:
50 OVER Oakland
100 St. Louis

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Vegas Runner:

2* True Steam: STL-115
3* True Steam: Boston-115

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 7.5 - Braves/Dodgers
50* Redsox -110

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Bankroll Sports

2* Athletics/Tigers Over 7

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Winning Angle Sports

NFL
Atlanta -9.5 over New York Jets

MLB
Pittsburgh +110 over St. Louis (TOP PLAY)
LA Dodgers -150 over Atlanta
Oakland +140 over Detroit
Boston -110 over Tampa Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL NEW JERSEY at EDMONTON
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (NEW JERSEY) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
35-16 since 1997. ( 68.6% 32.7 units )

NHL NEW JERSEY at EDMONTON
Play On - A underdog against the money line (NEW JERSEY) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
61-46 since 1997. ( 57.0% 39.8 units )

NHL NEW JERSEY at EDMONTON
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line (NEW JERSEY) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with 2 days rest
25-10 since 1997. ( 71.4% 20.6 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -110 (moneyline) at BetOnline

It has started to look like the energy the Rays spent to just get to the post-season has left this team tired and searching for answers. The answers will be even harder to find today facing Clay Buchholz, who if not for a mid-season injury, may have been a Cy Young winner. Buchholz has had an amazing season at 12-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He hasn't skipped a beat since coming back allowing a total of five runs in four starts. One of those starts was a five inning, 0 run performance against this Tampa team. Cobb has struggled in his four starts vs. the Red Sox where he is winless with a 5.16 ERA. Boston owns a 28-6 record behind Buchholz with a money line from -110 to -150. The Rays have dropped five straight post-season home games. Play this one on Boston.

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Northcoast

3 star late phone Atlanta -9-

Marquee-under 44

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TMC Sports Advisors

Tigers Detroit -1.5 +140

Oakland/Detroit Under 7

Cardinals/Pirates Under 7.5

Pirates Pittsburgh +100

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Monday card has a Pair of 5* Plays one is in the NFL where we have 2 Perfect totals systems that both date to 1989. We have hit all 4 NFL Plays on Monday night this season. In MLB Playoff Action we have a 5* side from a 17-2 Power system. Free N.L. Division Series Play below.

On Monday the free MLB National League Divisional series Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 927 at 3:05 eastern. The Cardinals find themselves down in this series after dropping last nights game 5-3 here in Pittsburgh. St. Louis does bounce back well though as they are 12-2 this season as a road favorite off a road loss. The Pirates are 0-5 as a home dog off a home favored win by 2 or more runs. St. Louis has M. Wacha making the start and he went 7 strong shutout innings allowing just 2 hits vs the Pirates earlier in the season. He will oppose C. Morton tonight and Morton has not fared well in starts vs the Cardinals as he has a 6.52 era. He has lost all 3 home starts vs the Cardinals and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings here in an earlier start vs the Cardinals. Look for St. Louis to send this one back to St. Louis for a series deciding game five. On Monday we have two 5* Plays. The NFL Total tonight has 2 Perfect 100% Totals systems. Football combined continues to rank at or near the top of All Major Leader boards after we cashed the top play AFC total of the Year on Sunday. We have hit all 4 plays this year on Monday night Football. In MLB we have a 5* Power System Side with a 17-2 System and Several Solid angles. Jump on now as we start the week big again. For the free play take the St. Louis Cardinals. GC