10-9-13

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Scott Spreitzer

NLDS GOY St. Louis

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Dave Price

STL CARDS

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season, in October games
77-65 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.2% 35.9 units )
2-11 this year. ( 15.4% -8.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH is 20-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.5)

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL CHICAGO at ST LOUIS
Play On - Any team against the money line (ST LOUIS) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
75-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% 39.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NHL MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play Against - A underdog against the money line (CALGARY) good offensive team - scoring 2.85+ goals/game on the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
71-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 77.2% 38.2 units )

NHL MONTREAL at CALGARY
Play On - Home teams against the money line (CALGARY) poor team - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game, after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games
44-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.8% 24.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields
by Mark Kern

Wednesday, October 9 – 11:30 p.m. ET
Barueri, Brazil
Demian Maia (18-4) vs. Jake Shields (28-6-1)

Welterweight bout
Line: Maia -285, Shields +225
Two UFC veterans square off at UFC Fight Night in Brazil on Wednesday night as Jake Shields will look to defeat No. 4-ranked Demian Maia in the main event.

This is a very intriguing matchup as it puts two of the most successful grapplers in the UFC in the Octagon against each other. Since losing to Chris Weidman on Jan. 28, 2012, Maia has looked very impressive in winning his past three fights. His last match against Jon Fitch at UFC 156 on Feb. 2 was a very tough and grueling bout, but he was able to do enough to get the unanimous victory. At No. 4 in the welterweight class, Maia has a chance to move up the ladder and enter the conversation for a title bout, but he is going to have to take care of Jake Shields, who is out to prove he is still the same fighter he used to be. Things seemed to be going well for Shields after he defeated Ed Herman at UFC 150 in August of 2012. However, he failed a drug test after the fight, and was suspended six months as his punishment. He was able to get a victory at UFC 161 on June 15 over Tyron Woodley, but it was not the kind of dominating victory that Dana White wanted to see coming off suspension. Shields has shown the ability to successfully win the big match, as he has defeated the likes of Dan Henderson and Martin Kampmann. Once again, Shields has the opportunity to show the UFC world that he has put the past behind him.

However, MAIA is too big and strong for Shields, and will win the match in dominating fashion.

Maia came into UFC as a guy that was thought to be able to take over the sport. After winning six of his first seven matches, he got the opportunity to fight Anderson Silva for the belt on April 10, 2010, but lost a five-round unanimous decision. Of his 18 career MMA victories, nine of them have been by way of submission, and of his dozen UFC victories, six have been by submission. At UFC 153, Maia submitted Rick Story in the first round by way of a neck crank. He must use that grappling part of his game, as Shields is the much better striker of the two, with 1.82 strikes landed per minute for Maia, compared to 2.74 strikes landed per minute for Shields. For the 35-year-old Maia, he has been very close to a title once in his career, and with a win, could inch closer to earning another shot at a UFC championship. However, he must stay focused on the task at hand, and not allow Shields to get comfortable in the match.

There is no doubt that with everything that has happened in his past, this is a must-win for the 34-year-old Shields. Of his 28 career victories, 15 have come by decision. His cardio has never been questioned, and he has shown on numerous occasions that he can go the distance in a match without becoming fatigued. He was once known as one of the best submission finishers in the UFC, piling up 10 career submission victories, but has not won a match in that fashion since defeated Robbie Lawler in 2009. He really struggles with his takedown defense, blocking just 37.5 percent of the opposition’s attempted takedowns, but his 33.1% takedown accuracy is slightly better than Maia's 32.7% clip. If Shields is going to win this match, he must not allow Maia to get his hands on him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC Fight Night 29: Silva vs. Hamill
by Mark Kern

Wednesday, October 9 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Barueri, Brazil
Thiago Silva (15-3) vs. Matt Hamill (12-4)

Light heavyweight bout
Line: Silva -340, Hamill +260
Thiago Silva looks to build off his last victory as he goes up against one of the toughest fighters in UFC history in Matt “The Hammer” Hamill at UFC Fight Night in Brazil on Wednesday night.

In his victory over Rafael Cavalcante on June 8, Silva showed his knockout ability by delivering the decisive blow with just 30 seconds to go in the first round. Silva has faced some of the very best that the sport has to offer, and taken them the distance. His last two losses are to Rashad Evans and Alexander Gustafsson, who showed how special he is last month by taking Jon Jones the distance. Silva will be going up against Hamill, who is one of the best stories in all of UFC. He is also the only fighter who has a victory over Jon Jones on his resume, although it was because Jones got disqualified for illegal elbows. But Hamill has an impressive list of victories, including 2010 wins over both Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine. He is a terrific wrestler, something that Silva has struggled with at times.

However, in the end, it will not matter as SILVA is just too big and powerful for Hamill. Look for this match to end very quickly.

There is no doubt how Silva wants to end this match, and that is by way of the knockout. Of his 15 career victories, 13 of them have come by way of knockout. He has extreme power in his fists, and is looking to turn the fight into a brawl, as five of his past nine fights have ended in the first round. Silva lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute, and is very accurate, connecting on 51 percent of those strikes. In those defeats to Evans and Gustafsson, he showed better than expected cardio by going the distance against those fighters. While Silva is not likely to finish a match with a submission, he has the ability to score points by way of takedown. He has a takedown accuracy of 47 percent, which is much better than the great wrestler Hamill (36 percent). If Silva comes out focused and takes care of business, he should be able to get the victory. However, if there is one thing that many UFC fighters have learned though the years, it is to not overlook Hamill.

Of Hamill’s 12 victories, six have come by way of knockout and six by decision. He does an outstanding job of wearing down his opponents and gaining points throughout the fight to secure the victory. Even though he has the six victories by way of knockout, the last thing he really wants to do is go punch-for-punch against a guy with the power of Silva. Hamil's past three victories have come by way of decision, including an impressive UFC 121 victory over Tito Ortiz. Hamill, who is giving one inch to Silva, has a tremendous 92% takedowns defended rate. The one thing known about Hamill is that he will keep fighting the entire bout. If he can survive an early flurry of punches thrown by Silva, then there is a chance for him to steal a victory, which would be his seventh in his past nine bouts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

500* Over 6.5 - Pirates/Cardinals

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Cole, Wainwright clash in Game 5 Wednesday
by Robert Livingston

National League Division Series
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:07 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -155, Pittsburgh +145, Total: 6.5

The Cardinals return home for the deciding Game 5 of this NLDS series as they will look to put the Pirates’ season to an end.

Pittsburgh had a chance to finish this series off at home, having built a 2-1 series advantage, but they were nearly no-hit by rookie Michael Wacha and ultimately lost 2-1, sending the series back to Busch Stadium. The Pirates will start their own rookie phenom Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.14 ERA), in hopes to keep their improbable season alive, earning the start over A.J. Burnett, who started Game 1, but was hit hard (2 IP, 7 ER). Cole will have his work cut out for him against Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.90 ERA), who easily led the Cardinals to a 9-1 rout when he pitched in Game 1. The Pirates have been a respectable road team all year, going 45-38 away from home, but the Cardinals were one of the majors' best at home with a 55-28 mark. That has included winning 7-of-11 games at Busch Stadium against the Pirates, although their division rival still holds the series edge in 2013 at 12-11.

The 23-year-old Cole (1.14 WHIP) showed phenomenal poise in his first postseason start, evening up the series at one with a one-run, two-hit effort over six innings in which he struck out five and walked only one batter. That’s been the story of his season as he has posted 105 strikeouts and walked only 29 in 123.1 innings while limiting opponents to only eight home runs. The lone run he allowed in Game 2 was a homer to C Yadier Molina, and that was his only career start against the Redbirds. Cole hasn't lost since Aug. 29, leading his team to six straight wins where he has personally gone 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, fanning 44 batters in 38 innings. And even though he’s a rookie, don’t expect any inconsistency from him, as he has allowed four earned runs just once in 20 starts season, leading the Pirates to a 13-7 record. That sort of consistency makes things easier for the Pittsburgh bullpen, which is 31-20 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 56 saves (79% success rate) in 2013, though those figures are slightly worse on the road where Pirates relievers are 13-11 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Wainwright (1.07 WHIP) was brilliant in his first postseason start of 2013, giving up one run on three hits in seven innings of work while piling up nine strikeouts and zero walks. That one run came on a homer by Pedro Alvarez, who has three jacks in the four games against the Cardinals this series. Though Wainwright has pitched quite well against the Pirates this season, going 2-0 (team 3-1) with three quality starts and a 2.57 ERA, he hasn’t always been so good against them. Although he has a 10-4 career record (team 12-7) versus Pittsburgh, that has come with a 4.43 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Alvarez has two career home runs against Wainwright despite a .227 batting average (5-for-22) while others such as OF Andrew McCutchen (.419 BA, 710 SLG in 31 AB) and C Russell Martin (.370 BA, .469 OBP in 27 AB) have regularly gotten the best of Wainwright. If the right-hander struggles for some reason, he is supported by a bullpen that looked brilliant finishing off Game 4 with 1.2 scoreless innings, and now has a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the NLDS, and a 3.42 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the entire season. Those numbers have been worse at Busch Stadium though, where St. Louis relievers carry a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Pitt (mlb)

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had Np on Tuesday.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" likes the Cardinals -$150/Pirates.

"Mr Chalk" is 1-1 -$100 for the week 106-68 +$500 for the 2013 MLB season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

121 Buff -10
137 Kent +15.5
192 N Tex -5.5
146 UTSA +2.5

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GamingToday’s Consensus Picks October 09, 2013 6:23 AM by GT Staff

Baseball Divisional Playoffs

952 St. Louis Cardinals -150: The pressure is getting to the Pirates and now they find their backs to the wall in St. Louis in a very hostile atmosphere. Their bats have gone silent as their magical season comes to an end.

NHL Hockey

3 Montreal Canadiens / 4 Calgary Flames OVER 5½ GOALS: Montreal plays little defense especially on the road as their last 14 of 19 road games have gone over the listed total with three going under and two ties.

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Ike from refpicks over 5.5 Blackhawks vs Blues

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Baseball Play of the Day October 09, 2013 6:28 AM by GT Staff

Baseball Divisional Playoffs

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals at 5:05 p.m. PST on TBS

Tight will be the name of tonight’s game with both teams being ultra careful and both managers will take no chances with their starters. Neither team pounding the ball as we look for a very low scoring affair.

951 Pittsburgh Pirates / 952 St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 6½ RUNS

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS----Randy Rose
Risking 5 Units (St.Louis Cardinals-1.5)(Run/Line)