10-10-13

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Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Thursday, Oct 10 2013 8:25PM
CHI -7.5 double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Thursday, Oct 10 2013 8:25PM
NYG/CHI OVER 47.0 double-dime bet

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games
105-67 since 1997. ( 61.0% 44.2 units )
8-13 this year. ( 38.1% -5.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 37-13 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NHL TORONTO at NASHVILLE
Play Against - Road teams against the money line (TORONTO)[/B] after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a top-level team (>= 70%) playing a bad team (30% to 40%) in the first half of the season
55-33 since 1997. ( 62.5% 36.4 units )

NHL CAROLINA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (CAROLINA) vs. division opponents, off a road loss against a division rival
194-175 since 1997. ( 52.6% 95.6 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )

NHL PHOENIX at DETROIT
Play Against - Any team against the money line (DETROIT) off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses
43-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% 26.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at ATLANTA

Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) average shooting team (40.5-43.5%) against an good defensive team (38-40.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at ATLANTA
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) after 5 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season
47-6 since 1997. ( 88.7% 0.0 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at ATLANTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5[/B] good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a win by 10 points or more
174-102 since 1997. ( 63.0% 61.8 units )
15-10 this year. ( 60.0% 4.0 units )

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Inside Sports Report

4* Over Air Force

3* Over NYG/CHI

3* Detroit Tigers

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Paul Leiner

100* A's -110
100* Over 55 Louisville/Rutgers
50* San Diego State -4

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Winning Angle Sports

NFL
Chicago -8 over New York Giants

CFB
Louisville -19 over Rutgers
Air Force +4 over San Diego State
Arizona +6 over USC

MLB
Oakland +110 over Detroit (TOP PLAY)

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Power Play Wins

Today's Play Of The Day

Chicago Bears -7

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Tale of the Tape: New York Giants at Chicago Bears

The New York Giants look to end their winless stretch Thursday night as they visit the Chicago Bears. Here's our tale of the tape for this mid-week matchup:

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The combination of Andre Brown's broken leg in the preseason and David Wilson's ineffectiveness and recent neck injury has saddled the Giants with the worst rush-yards-per-game average in the NFL (56.8). That likely won't improve much with Brandon Jacobs and Da'Rel Scott handling the rushing duties Thursday. Eli Manning has been turnover prone, but has still led the Giants to the ninth-most passing yards per game in the league through five weeks (280.2).

Chicago's Marc Trestman-led offense has been solid, if unspectacular. Jay Cutler has the team ranked 12th in pass yards per game at 260.6, and is tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the league with 10. Chicago is sitting in the middle of the pack in rushing yards per contest (108), and its four rushing touchdowns is tied with the Seattle Seahawks for 11th in the NFL.

Edge: Chicago

Defense

The Giants' defensive effort to date has been an abomination. New York is 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 269.2 - a total that may have been even higher were it not for the Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs opting to run the ball late in their blowout wins over the Giants. The run defense is even worse, with New York allowing the fourth-highest per-game average in football (126).

Chicago may not have as many defensive issues as its Thursday counterpart, but the once-vaunted Bears defense is showing cracks in the absence of retired linebacker Brian Urlacher. The Bears rank a stunning 24th in pass yards permitted per game (278.4), though facing Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees back-to-back certainly doesn't help. Chicago is considerably better against the run, ranking 13th overall at 98.2 yards per game against.

Edge: Chicago

Special Teams

Even a competent kicking game has eluded the Giants so far in 2013. After cutting Lawrence Tynes loose in the offseason, the Giants turned to Josh Brown - and he has made just 4-of-6 field goal attempts this season, missing kicks against Carolina and Kansas City and not registering an attempt against Philadelphia last weekend. New York has the second-worst kickoff return average (18.7) but is the only team in the league with more than one punt-return touchdown.

The Bears have one of the best placekickers in the league in Robbie Gould, and he has been his best so far. Gould has connected on all eight of his field-goal attempts, including a 27-yarder in last Sunday's 26-18 loss to the Saints. Chicago boasts one of the top return games in the league, ranking third in both kickoff return average (27.1) and punt return average (15.2). The Bears are also one of only two teams with a kickoff return touchdown this season.

Edge: Chicago

Notable Quotable

"Sometimes it's good to have a short week and just stay focused and quickly get your focus on Chicago and start game planning and get excited about how we're going to run our offense and how we're going to make some plays." - Giants quarterback Eli Manning

"(The loss to New Orleans) really was about our offense's inability to move the football. It was unacceptable. (After) the way we practiced, the way we worked and the way we started games and moved the football in the first month, (the loss) was terribly disappointing." - Bears head coach Marc Trestman

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GC: NCAAF Play

Thursday card has 3 Big plays Including a 5* Triple System NFL Side. In College we have a Big ESPN Power system play. Moving to bases we have the 21-2 Game 5 A.L.D.S. Playoff system side. Football is ranked at or near the top of All Major Leader boards. Free NCAAF Total below.


On Thursday the free College Football total is on the Over in the San Diego St at Air force game. Rotation numbers 105/106 at 9:00 eastern. Both teams have mediocre defenses that allow 437 and 493 yards per game. SD. St is averaging over 400 yards on offense and Air force 379. In the series 5 of the last 7 here have flown over the total and simulations have this game averaging in the mid to high 60/s. Air Force has gone over 11 of 15 as a dog and the last 4 in Conference play. Look for this one to go over the total here tonight. On Thursday we 3 Powerful Plays led by a 5* Triple System NFL Side. The College Power system play is on ESPN and the MLB Game 5 Side has a 21-2 Playoff System indicator. Football is ranked at or near the top of All Major Leader board this season. Jump on Now and Put the Power of these plays on your Side. For the free play. Play the over in the San Diego St at Air force game. GC

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Pezgordo 2013 CFB Picks – Week # 7

107 Arizona – 108 USC UNDER 48 (1 unit)

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Where the action is: Books bracing for Bears money

The Chicago Bears try to avoid a three-game slide against the winless New York Giants Thursday night. We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this mid-week matchup and where the odds could end up come kickoff:

New York Giants at Chicago Bears – Open: -9.5, Move: -7

Some markets opened this game with the Giants as near 10-point underdogs in the Windy City, but most have either adjusted down or posted this game around a touchdown.

New York was a play-on team for NFL bettors in the first three weeks of the season, with most expecting the G-Men to right the ship. And it seems like the early action is once again banking on the Giants to keep this one closer than 10 points. However, since the move, the money has balanced on both sides as of Thursday afternoon.

“Action so far is pretty split with a bit more on Chicago so far,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “However, as kickoff approaches, I expect we will see much more Chicago money, but we hope to hold the seven. But it won’t be a tragedy if we have to move off, given our balanced action so far at the key number.”

As for the total, the number opened as low as 45 points. According to Black, the Over is taking steady action and has been driven up to 47.5 before buyback came in on the Under, trimming the total to 46.5.

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NHLPredictions

Kevin's Pick(s):


We cashed in another winner last night on the OVER 5 as the Kings won with a final score of 4-3 in overtime. I look for another winner tonight with my first 4 Unit play of the season.


4 UNIT = New York Rangers @ Anaheim Ducks - DUCKS TO WIN (-135)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 2.96 units)


The New York Rangers are in a tough spot as they open their season with a 9 game road trip due to some renovation work at Madison Square Garden. They opened the season up with a 4-1 loss in Phoenix, went to Los Angeles winning 3-1, and then were thumped in San Jose on Tuesday 9-2. The Rangers have been outshot in each contest, and are averaging 24 shots on net and giving up an average of 36 shots against per game (3rd worst in the NHL). If their start to the season wasn't tough enough they also lost Rick Nash to a head injury. Anaheim has also started off the season on the road, but tonight will have some added motivation in their home opener. The Ducks have had a much better start to their season than the Rangers as they opened the year off with a 6-1 loss in Colorado (although they outshot Colorado 36-29 in that game), they then went to Minnesota and won 4-3, and improved to 2-1 with a 3-2 victory over Winnipeg on Sunday. The Ducks looked good in their latest game out shooting the Jets 34-17 on the road. So far this year Anaheim has been out playing their opponents averaging 33.3 shots per game (and giving up just 26.3 against), and I expect them to play well again tonight at home where they were 16-7-1 last season. The Rangers were just 10-12-2 on the road last year. Henrik Lundqvist is expected to start for the Rangers and he is 1-2 with a 3.62 GAA and .897 SV% so far this year. Although Jonas Hiller isn't confirmed over Viktor Fasth for tonight's home opener, he is the expected starter. He has gotten one start going 1-0 with a 2.77 GAA and .909 SV%. After a 9-2 loss in San Jose Tuesday it will be tough for the Rangers to bounce back playing against a solid Ducks team in their home opener. I like the line here on Anaheim and will take that for 4 units tonight.


Kyle's Pick(s):


2 UNIT = SJ Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks - OVER 5.5 GOALS (+115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.30 units)


I was absent yesterday, as I was busy with previous commitments and did not feel like short changing you guys with a hurried play. I'm never going to force a bet that isn't researched. However, Kevin nailed a pretty easy winner, so hopefully everyone cashed in on that play in the Kings game. All three of my losses this year have been as close as you can get without winning. Two lost by .5, and my last play was on the Canucks to win in regulation. Of course they bury a goal 2 minutes into OT. Doesn't matter if you win a bet by 10 or 1, though. It's all irrelevant in the end. Let's shake the misfortunes off Thursday and come back strong.


Fortunately enough, the play I like most tonight is in the game I am most excited to watch. It is a battle of the seasons early best, with the San Jose Sharks taking their flawless record of 3-0 on the road to Vancouver. And the Sharks have been just that, flawless. It's not simply the record, the Sharks have been winning games in dominating fashion so far this season. During this three game winning streak, the Sharks have scored a whopping 17 goals, including a nine goal effort in their last outing against the Rangers. The Sharks have been piling the shots on as well, averaging 44.3 per game in their first three games. Problem for the Sharks tonight is the fact that perhaps their best defenseman, Brad Stuart, will be serving the first game of his three game suspension. This opens up a door for the Canucks offense, that hasn't been too bad either. They have scored 14 goals thus far, averaging 3.75 a game. The only reason we are getting a positive price here is because of Roberto Luongo. I think Luongo will ultimately have a good season without the distractions, but I like the Sharks to continue putting the puck in the back of the net. I will be on the over for a regular, 2 unit wager.

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Factsman Thursday
Rutgers +18

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NORTH Coast

Marquee USC -6