10-16-13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that has proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Missouri shook up the SEC landscape with a 41-26 beating of Georgia Saturday. The Tigers capitalized on two interceptions and two fumbles against the Bulldogs, picking up the program’s biggest victory since moving to the SEC. That notable win has the Tigers primed for a letdown in Week 8.

Mizzou is back in Columbia this weekend, hosting the Florida Gators as a slight home underdog. The Gators are off a tight loss to LSU and come into Saturday with bad intentions. Florida boasts one of the best defenses in the land and could feast on an offense missing its key cog, with Tigers QB James Franklin out with a separated shoulder.

Lookahead spot

Earlier this NFL season, before Pittsburgh and Minnesota made the trip to London, England, we pointed out that the last 12 teams to play in London (2007-2012) were a combined 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in the week previous to making the trip to England. The Steelers and Vikings followed suit and failed to cover in the week before jumping the pond, both losing SU and ATS in Week 3.

Now, with the last 14 teams combining for a 4-10 ATS mark the week before leaving for London – 28.5 winning percentage – eyes are on the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6 of the season. The Niners and Jags, who tangle in Wembley Stadium on Oct. 27, are in lookahead mode this Sunday. San Francisco is a 4-point road favorite in Tennessee while Jacksonville is getting 9.5 points at home to San Diego in Week 7.

Schedule spot

The Vancouver Canucks hit the bricks for the majority of the month, starting in Philadelphia Tuesday night. The Canucks are on a seven-game road run which has them playing four games this week to open this chunk of schedule.

Vancouver has split its first two road games of the season, losing at San Jose and squeaking out an overtime win at Calgary. The Canucks travel across the country for games against the Flyers, Sabres, Penguins, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Devils and Blues. That’s a tough test for a team still finding its form under a new head coach.

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Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: UCLA Bruins (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS)

The Bruins have covered the points in all six of their wins this season and bettors are taking notice. After opening as 6.5-point underdogs versus Stanford on the road this week, public money has brought that line down at least two points.

The Cardinal were upset by the Utes in Utah last week, a team that UCLA handled with relative ease just 11 days prior. The Bruins offense is averaging over 45 points per game (seventh in the country). Quarterback Brett Hundley threw for a career-high 410 yards against Cal last week.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS)

The Red Raiders didn't look good in their win over Iowa State this week, allowing a special teams touchdown and turning the ball over three times. With games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State coming up in the next few weeks, remaining undefeated is going to be tough.

After opening as 8-point favorites on the road in West Virginia next week, that line has now been bet down below a touchdown. It's easy to see why people would be skeptical about the Red Raiders covering on the road.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Utah Utes (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

The Utes have made the best of a tough schedule, with impressive victories over Utah State, BYU, and then a shocker over Stanford Saturday. The remainder of the schedule only sees one more ranked opponent, but that's a game against Oregon in which they won't stand much of a chance.

Still with five games against unranked teams, a bowl appearance is still in play. Both of their losses this season have come at home, and one of those was an overtime thriller against the Beavers. Utah has consecutive road games against Arizona and USC coming up.

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NFL line watch: Hold off on betting Big D at Philadelphia
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

This line opened at 5. There are still some 4.5s out there, but a few 4s are creeping onto the board now as well. Don't wait to jump on this one if you're planning on backing the home side this week.

When the Titans take the field Sunday, they'll be looking to improve upon their 2-1 home record. Tennessee's defense surrendered just 30 combined points in the two home victories. The Jags are a writeoff and the Texans are plummeting. With a date vs. the Broncos next week, the Colts are likely going to be sitting at 4-3 on Monday morning. If that scenario occurs, an outright victory Sunday would move the Titans into a tie for the AFC South lead.

The 49ers have bounced back after a dismal start, but there's no question their Achilles’ heel has been their play on the road this year, where they’re just 1-1. Tennessee has a similar smashmouth style of defense that the Seattle Seahawks do, a team which held San Francisco to just three points in Week 2. The Titans were in the Pacific Northwest last week and took those same Seahawks down to the wire in the eventual 20-13 setback.

With the sharps and the public jumping on the underrated home side, don't wait any longer if you plan on backing the Titans this weekend.

Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys backers should wait closer to kickoff before getting down on this one. This line would open as a pick but the home side has seen considerable action already. The Eagles now sit as 2.5-point favorites across the board, with a couple of 3's starting to make an appearance as well.

The Cowboys have shown marked improvement over the last two weeks, taking the Broncos down to the wire and having their way in a 31-16 victory over Washington last week. Dallas, though, is 0-2 on the road this year, losing 17-16 at Kansas City and 30-21 at San Diego, and has a ton of injuries on defense along with RB DeMarco Murray.

The Cowboys and Eagles are now tied atop the NFC East, making this week's contest crucial. Both the sharps and the public know that division games are always the most important and almost always it's more important for the home side.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (56)

This line is already dropping. Sunday night games have paid big dividends for Over bettors this season, but both teams are coming off offensive duds.

While the Broncos pulled away with a convincing 35-19 victory over the lowly Jaguars last week, they were unable to cover the sky-high 28-point spread and were up just two points (14-12) at half-time.

Indianapolis came into its Monday night game in San Diego with a lot of momentum but got caught looking ahead and laid an egg in a 19-9 setback.

There will be many storylines to consider in this matchup, but it's clear that both the sharps and the public are thinking that Peyton Manning's return to the stadium that he helped build will be more of a defensive battle once the smoke settles.

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MLB

Tigers-Red Sox
Peavy is 1-0, 4.70 in his last five starts, with three of last four staying under the total. He allowed four runs in seven IP in 7-4 win over Detroit July 25, in his last start for the White Sox.

Fister is 2-0, 4.05 in his last three starts, with four of his last six staying under the total. He started against Boston twice this year; June 21 he gave up 11 hits, six runs in 3.1 IP in a 10-6, then he blanked Red Sox for seven innings in a 3-0 win Spetember 2.

Boston rallied from down 5-1 in 8th inning to even series with 6-5 walkoff win Sunday, and now lead series after 1-0 win Tuesday; nine of their last twelve games went over total. Red Sox are 5-5 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 6-4 in those games. Boston lost four of their last seven road games.

Detroit is 6-9 in its last 15 games; nine of their last twelve stayed under the total. Tigers won seven of their last eleven home games.

Dodgers-Cardinals
Kelly is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; Cardinals are 7-3 in his last 10 starts, with over 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts against LA.

Kershaw is 3-1, 1.13 in his last five starts, with three of last four going over the total. He is 0-2, 3.32 in three starts against LA this season.

Dodgers are 5-6 against St Louis this year, with eight of 11 games going under the total. LA is 4-4 in playoffs but 10-14 in last 24 games overall; all four games in this series stayed under the total-- they've scored seven runs in 40 innings in this series so far.

Cardinals won 14 of their last 18 games, but lost three of last five road games; they allowed seven runs in first four games of this series- five of their last six games stayed under total.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Anaheim won its last four games, allowing six goals. Flames won three of their last four.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost last three games by combined score of 20-5. Washington lost three of its last four games.

Series records
-- Rangers won four of last five games vs Washington after Caps had taken 2-0 series lead in LY's playoffs, shutting them out in last two games.
-- Ducks are 8-3 in their last eleven games with Calgary.

Totals
-- Last three Ranger games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Anaheim-Calgary games stayed under the total.

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Red Sox at Tigers: What bettors need to know

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-123, 7)

The Boston Red Sox have scored in just four innings of the American League Championship Series but can take a 3-1 series lead if they can topple the host Detroit Tigers on Wednesday night. Boston’s Mike Napoli homered off Justin Verlander for the lone run in Game 3 and it gave the Red Sox consecutive wins, counting their epic Game 2 comeback. The Tigers’ pitchers have accumulated 43 strikeouts, a record through three games of a Championship Series.

Two of the first three games were decided by 1-0 scores, a stunner considering Boston and Detroit were the two highest-scoring teams in the majors in the regular season. “The runs are pretty stingy,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. “This is what it’s about in postseason – is good pitching.” Boston is batting just .133 in the series, the lowest mark through three games in Championship Series history. Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz is 1-for-10 with the hit being his memorable game-tying grand slam in Game 2.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67)

Peavy hasn’t won a postseason game in his career but did pitch a solid 5 2/3 innings – giving up one run and five hits – in the AL Division Series against Tampa Bay to lower his postseason ERA to 8.22. He is 4-5 with a 4.83 ERA in 12 career starts against the Tigers, winning his lone outing this season against Detroit as a member of the Chicago White Sox. Peavy is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA in five career outings at Comerica Park.

Fister received a no-decision in his ALDS outing against Oakland, allowing three runs and seven hits in six innings. He tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball to beat Boston on Sept. 2 but was pounded for six runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in June. Fister is 2-4 with a 4.36 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Red Sox are 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Detroit.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Detroit starters Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer and Verlander combined to allow two runs and six hits with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings.

2. Napoli broke out of a slump with his sixth career postseason homer – he’s 3-for-21 with 10 strikeouts in the current postseason.

3. Tigers DH Victor Martinez suffered a quadriceps injury in the ninth but expects to play in Game 4. He is 4-for-11 in the series.

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Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Detroit

The Red Sox look to follow up yesterday's 1-0 win and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 3-10 in Doug Fister's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 915-916: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.588; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.984 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Boston at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 16.728; Detroit (Fister) 16.047 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Washington

The Capitals look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Washington is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16 Time Posted 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.514; Washington 11.915 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 53-54: Calgary at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.265; Anaheim 11.061 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+165); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1115-837 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 6-1 run WED Red Sox w/ Peavy

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

NY - Washington - over 5.5

Calgary/Anaheim over 5.5

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TMC Sports Advisors

Dodgers

Tigers

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Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox +117 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 93-8, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 93-100-2

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Hockey Crusher
Calgary Flames +166 over Anaheim Ducks
(System Record: 5-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 5-1

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Soccer Crusher
San Lorenzo + Arsenal de Sarandi UNDER 2 - Argentina (pending)
Cruzeiro + Fluminense OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 469-16, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 469-403-65