10-23-13

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Cardinals, Red Sox open World Series Wednesday
by Robert Livingston

World Series - Game 1
First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -115, St. Louis +105, Total: 7

The Cardinals begin their quest for their second World Series title in three years on Wednesday night against a Red Sox team looking for a repeat of 2004 when they swept the Redbirds in the Fall Classic.

Adam Wainwright (21-10, 2.82 ERA) will take the mound for underdog St. Louis in this one with a 2-1 record and 1.57 ERA this postseason, adding to his career-long playoff success (4-1, 2.10 ERA). Opposing him will be Boston southpaw Jon Lester (17-9, 3.64 ERA) who has been way better at home this year, where he is 8-2 (team is 12-30 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The Cardinals have generally struggled against lefties this season, going 22-25 (.468). Overall, St. Louis is 45-41 (.523) away from Busch Stadium in 2013, while the Boston is a dominant 57-29 (.663) at Fenway Park. The Cardinals have struggled at the plate this postseason with a .210 BA and 3.8 runs per game, but their pitching has been outstanding, limiting opponents to a .207 BA and 2.5 runs per game. The Red Sox lineup has been up-and-down during the playoffs, batting .236 with 4.5 runs per game, but their pitching has also been strong with a 3.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Wainwright (1.05 WHIP) has led the Cardinals to victory in 25 of his 37 starts (.676) this year, including a 7-1 mark in his past eight starts where he has not allowed more than three runs in any outing, tallying a 1.71 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 52 K's and just seven walks in 58 IP during this span. He has been slightly worse on the road this season with a 3.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but he still amassed a 10-4 record (team 12-6) away from Busch Stadium. And he lives for October, now with a 2.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 16 career postseason outings, seven of which were starts. He has 62 strikeouts and only seven walks in those 55.2 postseason innings. That mirrors his dominance this year where he has 239 strikeouts and a pithy 36 walks in 264.2 innings. He has never pitched against the Red Sox in his career, though has some experience pitching well against some of their current hitters, holding them to a combined .162 BA in 68 career at-bats. SS Stephen Drew is 2-for-19 with five strikeouts, C David Ross is 2-for-11 with 4 K's, OF Jonny Gomes is 2-for-10 with 4 K's while ALCS Game 6 grand slam hero OF Shane Victorino is just 5-for-22 (.227 BA) against Wainwright in his career. Despite the struggles, Ross, Gomes and Victorino have a homer and 3 RBI off the right-hander. Wainwright doesn’t usually need much bullpen help with 7.2 innings per start this year, but the Cardinals bullpen is usually pretty solid with a 3.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. On the road they’re even better with a 3.11 ERA, but have a slightly worse 1.23 WHIP. But during the postseason, the St. Louis bullpen has been lights-out with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 30 innings, which includes a 1.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in the NLCS win over the Dodgers.

Lester (1.28 WHIP in 2013) has also been great in the postseason so far with a 2-1 record and 2.33 ERA this October. That echoes his historical postseason dominance, as he has a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 career postseason appearances, nine of which were starts. He has 191 strikeouts in 232.2 innings this year, though he sometimes struggles with his control with 74 walks. He has one career start against the Cardinals, earning the win against them while giving up two earned runs on nine hits in 7.1 innings in 2008. Only three current Cardinals have ever faced Lester, as OF Matt Holliday is 2-for-6 with 1 RBI and 1 K, OF Carlos Beltran is 1-for-1 with two walks and C Yadier Molina is 0-for-3. The important thing to watch out with the St. Louis hitters will be monitoring the health of 1B/OF Allen Craig, whose status for the series is questionable with a foot injury. Craig batted .315 with 13 HR and 97 RBI during the regular season, but has not played since Sept. 4 because of his injury. Despite some injuries of its own, Boston’s bullpen has been extremely reliable this year with a 33-23 record, 3.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. At Fenway Park, the unit is 18-9 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. During the 2013 postseason, Red Sox relievers have been outstanding with a collective 3-1 record, 0.84 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and five saves, all by Koji Uehara.

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World Series Games Leaning Toward 'Under' since 2000

The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals send their respective aces to the mound for Game 1 of the World Series Wednesday, but don’t jump on the Under just yet.

Since 2000, the Over/Under in Game 1 of the World Series has bounced around on both sides of the number, with contending teams posting a 7-6 O/U record in that span.

Boston gives the ball to Jon Lester (2-1, 2.33 ERA) while St. Louis goes with Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.57 ERA), keeping the Game 1 total at a low 7 runs.

While Game 1 of the World Series hasn’t produced a solid lean to either side of the total, looking back at the entire series has shown the Under is the smart play. World Series contenders are 28-37 O/U since 2000 – a winning percentage of 57 percent for Under bettors.

Looking back at World Series involving either the Red Sox or Cardinals, and the under is 8-12 O/U in those games, including a 1-3 O/U record when these clubs collided in the 2004 World Series in which Boston swept 4-0.

The Red Sox and Cardinals have been fairly split on the Over/Under this postseason with a collective 11-8-2 O/U mark heading into Game 1. However, in their league championship series, Boston and St. Louis were a combined 4-6-2 O/U.

Heading into Wednesday’s series opener, Boston and St. Louis have gone 2-6-1 O/U in their last nine meetings but are 5-2-1 O/U in their last eight head-to-head contests at Fenway Park. The Over is also 3-1-1 in each of Wainwright’s and Lester’s last five starts.

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Wednesday's Champions League Betting Cheat Sheet

Wednesday's Champions League action features matches from Groups A, B, C and D. A pair of European giants - Man United and Juventus - are off to slow starts and will look to build a little momentum with positive results.

Manchester United vs. Real Sociedad (-200, +333, +550)

Why bet Man United: Because this is a club that needs something good to happen. United sits in top position in Group A with four points and a serious push in Champions League will soften the blow of a terrible start (in United standards) to the Premier League campaign. The Red Devils were on the verge of a solid 1-0 victory over Southampton, but the plucky Saints managed an 89' goal from Adam Lallana to force a tie. These are things that didn't happen to United under Fergie.

Why bet Real Sociedad: Coming off a very successful campaign in La Liga last season, a lot of expectation was heaped upon Real Sociedad. It hasn't been a good start in either Champions League and in Spain, however. Sociedad has yet to record a point in a tough Group A with losses versus Shakhtar and at Leverkusen. The side is talented and better then the start we've seen, so potentially picking up points at Old Trafford could turn their season around, and prove to skeptics that they belong in Europe.

Key betting note: Sociedad has played under the 2.5 goal total in three of its four Champions League matches (including qualifiers) this season.

Real Madrid vs. Juventus (-188, +333, +500)

Why bet Real Madrid: Madrid is off to an incredible start in Group B after thrashing both Galatasaray and Copenhagen. Juventus will be the first real test, however, but Madrid is already sitting pretty in the group after the Italian side drew both of its matches against the same opponents. The top of the table in La Liga is log jammed as Madrid sits third, but the squad is so deep and so talented that a good run in Europe is surely in the cards.

Why bet Juventus: Juve ran away with the Serie A crown last season, but has gotten off to a rough start domestically this time around. The Old Lady was thrashed by a game Fiorentina side 4-2 at the weekend and a slow start in Champions League won't help. Juventus drew both Galatasaray and Copenhagen and must find its form against Madrid or else could be on the outside looking in.

Key betting note: Juventus has won its last four matches versus Madrid in all competitions.

Wednesday's other matches with odds:

CSKA Moscow v Manchester City (+400, +290, -133)

Anderlecht v PSG (+600, +350, -222)

Bayer Leverkusen v Shakhtar Donetsk (-120, +275, +320)

Bayern Munich v Viktoria Plzen (-1400, +1400, +4000)

Benfica v Olympiakos (-138, +275, +375)

Galatasaray v FC Copenhagen (-250, +375, +700)

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Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Boston

The Red Sox open the World Series at home and look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games when the total is set at 7 runs or less. Boston is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (10/21)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.420; Boston (Lester) 17.771 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under

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Beltran, Pedroia, Holliday headline World Series MVP odds

The World Series opens in Boston Wednesday night. On top of the Game 1 odds, series prices and World Series props, baseball bettors can also wager on which player will win World Series MVP.

Adam Wainwright +1200
Allen Craig +1500
Carlos Beltran +800
Clay Buchholz +1800
David Ortiz +1200
David Freese +1500
Dustin Pedroia +800
Jacoby Ellsbury +1200
Jarrod Saltalamacchia +1800
Jon Jay +2000
Jon Lester +1200
Koji Uehara +1500
Matt Adams +1800
Matt Carpenter +1200
Matt Holliday +800
Michael Wacha +1200
Mike Napoli +1200
Shane Victorino +1500
Stephen Drew +2000
Trevor Rosenthal +1500
Xander Bogaerts +2000
Yadier Molina +1200
Field +800

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World Series betting: Red Sox Game 1, series faves

The Boston Red Sox head into the 2013 World Series as -145 (Bet365) favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Sox will play for their first World Series trophy since 2007 when they swept the Colorado Rockies.

The Cardinals, priced at +125, were the 2011 champions after outlasting the Texas Rangers in seven games.

The two clubs did not face one another this season - and haven't since 2008 - but the Sox have the edge in Interleague matchups this season.

Boston posted a 14-6 record against National League opponents and outscored them at a 118-54 clip.

St. Louis was 10-10 against American League teams and had the upper hand in runs as well, outscoring AL opponents 100-75.

It looks as if the series will open with staff aces toeing the rubber at Fenway Park Wednesday evening.

Adam Wainwright is probable to get the call for St. Louis and Jon Lester is the probable starter for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox are Game 1 faves at -125 and the total is currently 7.

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MLB

Wednesday, October 23

Cardinals at Red Sox: What bettors need to know

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (-119, 7)

The St. Louis Cardinals have won a pair of World Series since falling to the Boston Red Sox in 2004 and will make their fourth trip to the Fall Classic in 10 years looking for revenge. The Red Sox completed a remarkable turnaround from last place in 2012 and will try to take down the Cardinals again when they host Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday. David Ortiz is the only player left from Boston’s sweep in 2004 and is still piling up key postseason hits.

St. Louis’ lone holdovers from that 2004 showdown are Mike Matheny, who went from starting catcher to manager, and Yadier Molina, who went from Matheny’s backup to one of the best catchers in the game. One of Boston’s big advantages in the American League playoffs was on the base paths - an area Molina regularly controls. The Cardinals and Red Sox are stacked up and down the roster and tied for the most wins in the majors during the regular season with 97.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 40s with partly cloudy skies and a 52 percent chance of rain early Wesnesday. Winds blowing west at 7 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2-1, 1.57 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (2-1, 2.33)

Wainwright served as the closer on St. Louis’ 2006 World Champion squad and was forced to watch the 2011 team win from the bench while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 32-year-old led the National League with 19 wins during the regular season and was spectacular during the NL playoffs, striking out 20 batters while issuing one walk in 23 total innings. Wainwright’s lone road playoff start was his only loss, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings at Los Angeles.

Lester allowed two or fewer runs in each of his three postseason starts and 10 of the last 13 going back to the regular season. The 29-year-old won the clinching game of the 2007 World Series in Colorado, allowing three hits in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Lester is 4-4 with a 2.49 ERA in 11 career postseason games - nine starts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Boston.
* Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 World Series games.
* Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight World Series games.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Cardinals 1B Allen Craig (foot) missed the first two rounds of the playoffs but is expected to be activated for the World Series.

2. Boston rookie 3B Xander Bogaerts reached base in eight of his 11 postseason plate appearances and is likely to stay in the lineup.

3. St. Louis RF Carlos Beltran owns a .337 batting average and .449 on-base percentage with 16 homers and 37 RBIs in 45 career playoff games, but will be making his World Series debut.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Bruins won three of their last four games, are 3-0 on road.

Cold teams
-- Sabres lost nine of their first ten games, are 0-6 at home.
-- Senators lost five of their last seven games. Detroit lost its last two games.

Series records
-- Sabres are 5-4 in last nine games against Boston.
-- Detroit won last four games with Ottawa, outscoring them 19-11.

Totals
-- Under is 5-0-2 in Boston games this season.
-- Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Detroit games.

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Today's NHL Picks

Ottawa at Detroit

The Red Wings look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is 1-5 in its last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Detroit is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23 Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Ottawa at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.747; Detroit 12.432 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 3-4: Boston at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.115; Buffalo 11.202 Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-185); 5 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+165); Over

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Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -120 over St. Louis Cardinals
(System Record: 93-9, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 93-104-2

Hockey Crusher
Boston Bruins -170 over Buffalo Sabres
(System Record: 9-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 9-4

Basketball Crusher
Toronto Raptors (PK) over Memphis Grizzlies
(System Record: 1-0)
Overall Record: 1-0

Soccer Crusher
Gremio + Corinthians OVER 1.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 474-17, won last game)
Overall Record: 474-406-65

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Hondo

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Red Sox in series
Red Sox game 1

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MLB

Wednesday, October 23

Wainwright is 2-1, 1.57 in three playoff starts this season; in his career he has a 4-1, 2.10 career record in seven postseason starts.

Lester is 2-1, 2.33 in three postseason starts this year; he is 4-4, 2.49 in nine career postseason starts.

Cardinals are in playoffs for 10th time in last 14 years, so they're battle tested, having won World Series two years ago and in '06. St Louis is 7-4 in playoffs, 2-3 on road. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Cardinals are 5-5 playing in AL ballparks this year- those games had the DH (over 6-4).

Red Sox went 69-93 LY, retooled roster and are in playoffs for first time in four years; they won World Series in '04, and '07. Boston is 7-3 in playoffs, scoring total of seven runs in the losses. Over is 10-3-2 in their last fifteen games.

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Cappers Access

Red Sox -125