10-27-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Redskins at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)

Peyton Manning has built a reputation for his legendary preparedness, but he will be in somewhat unfamiliar territory when the Denver Broncos look to rebound from their first loss in more than a year against the visiting Washington Redskins on Sunday. The Broncos were upended at Indianapolis 39-33 last week to snap a franchise-record 17-game winning streak dating to Oct. 7, 2012. The defeat also dropped Denver one game behind first-place Kansas City in the AFC West.

The Redskins are trying to dig themselves out of a hole for the second straight season, winning for the second time in three games after prevailing in a wild 45-41 shootout with Chicago last week. It marked a season high in points allowed by Washington, which has surrendered more than 30 four times and is yielding an averaging of 30.7 per contest. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan returns to the city where he coached for 14 seasons and led Denver to back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Broncos opened -13.5 and are now -11. The total opened at 56.5 and is up to 58.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-4): Washington's success last season was built around a punishing ground game, one which produced its second straight 200-yard effort last week. Quarterback Robert Griffin III appeared tentative to run last month in his comeback from a torn ACL, but he has piled up 161 yards rushing in his last two and posted a season-best 105.2 passer rating while throwing for 298 yards and two scores against Chicago. Alfred Morris, who amassed 1,613 yards rushing last season as a rookie, had 95 yards on a season-high 19 carries last week and backup Roy Helu added 41 yards and three scores.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1): Denver is on a record-setting pace with 298 points scored - the most in history through the first seven games of the season - but was unable to come all the way back from a 19-point deficit against the Colts. Manning leads the league in scoring passes (25) and yards (2,565) after throwing for three touchdowns and 386 yards against his former team, but the Broncos are also permitting a league-worst 319.9 passing yards per game and will likely be without star cornerback Champ Bailey (foot). Manning was back at practice Thursday after sitting out Wednesday with a sore ankle.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Week 8.
* Broncos are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 11-1 with 38 TDs and four interceptions at home since joining the Broncos.

2. Redskins S Brandon Meriweather will serve a one-game suspension for repeated hits to the head of opponents.

3. Denver's margin of victory in its four home games is 21.5 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Series betting: Game 4 prop bets

Here are prop bets for Game 4 of the World Series between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals courtesy of the LVH Superbook.

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Clay Buchholz (Bos)

Over 4.0 -120
Under 4.0 EVEN

Buchholz fanned four Tigers batters in his last outing and K'd six and five in each of his previous two outings this postseason.

Will Clay Buchholz (Bos) allow a Home Run?

Yes +125
No -145

The righty as been touched for three home runs in the postseason, but didn't allow a long ball in his last outing.

Will Clay Buchholz (Bos) be the Winning Pitcher?

Yes +270
No -330

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Lance Lynn (StL)

Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 EVEN

The Cardinals righty struck out five Dodgers in his last start and surpassed the above 5.5 total in his first start in the postseason with six K's against the Pirates.

Will Lance Lynn (StL) allow a Home Run?

Yes +125
No -145

Lynn did not allow a home run in 5 1/3 innings of work in his last start. Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez did take him deep in Game 2 of their series.

Will Lance Lynn (StL) be the Winning Pitcher?

Yes +180
No -210

Most Total Bases

David Ortiz (Bos) -120
Matt Carpenter (StL) EVEN

Ortiz was limited to a single last night.
Carpenter went 2-for-5 with a double and a single.

Most Total Bases

Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos) -120
Carlos Beltran (StL) EVEN

Ellsbury went 2-for-5 with a pair of singles last night.
Beltran went hitless.

Most Total Bases

Dustin Pedroia (Bos) EVEN
Matt Adams (StL) -120

Pedroia went 0-for-4 in Game 3.
Adams went 2-for-5 with one double and a single.

Most Total Bases

Shane Victorino (Bos) +120
Matt Holliday (StL) -140

Victorino finished the night 0-for-2.
Holliday was 2-for-5, including onen double and one single.

Will Matt Holliday (StL) get at least one RBI?

Yes +145
No -165

Holliday had three RBIs last night, giving him four in the series.

Will any player get Exactly 3 Hits?

Yes +145
No -165

Cardinals C Yadier Molina was the first player to collect three his in the series last night as he finished 3-for-4.

Total Number of Different Players to Throw a Pitch in Game 4

Over 10.5 -140
Under 10.5 +120

Twelve pitchers entered the game last night.

Total Runs/Hits/Errors by: Red Sox and Cardinals

Over 25.0 -110
Under 25.0 -110

The teams combined for 29 runs, hits and errors last night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Night Football Selections

Dunkel

Green Bay at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.021; Minnesota 130.329
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9); Over

Colin Cowherd

Vikings +9

BeatYourBookie

10* Play Green Bay -9 over Minnesota (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Green Bay is 12-2 ATS vs. division opponents the last three seasons
Green Bay is 13-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in their last four games

CHAD MATTHEWS

4-Unit Play. #229 Green Bay Packers -8.5 over the Minnesota Vikings (Sept 27 @ 8:30pmET)
The Green Bay Packers head to Minnesota for a rivalry match up with the Vikings. The Vikings have been a huge disappointment to bettors all season long and again they are having problems under the center. This weekend Vikings quarterback Josh Freeman has been ruled out due to concussion type symptoms and the Vikings decided to turn to quarterback Christian Ponder to replace him. Ponder started off the season with the Vikings only to disappoint and be replaced by Cassell until the Vikings finally signed Josh Freeman two weeks ago. Last week the Vikings lost to the then 0-6 Giants 23-7 as 4 point dogs and the week prior got blown out at home against the Carolina Panthers 35-10 as 3 point favorites. The Vikings need to rebuild. They have no defense, their offense is completely out of sync and they have no business even at home being a 8.5 dog against this talented Packers team. It's a no brainer here, take the Packers and lay the road chalk and take the -8.5

JASON LOGAN

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9.5, 47)

Packers’ run defense vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

Rarely do we have Peterson on this side of the mismatch. Usually “All Day” is exploiting a mushy run defense in our weekly feature. However, with everything going on off the field and the Vikings’ QB woes on it, Peterson hasn’t come near the numbers of 2012. In his last two efforts, he’s mustered a total of 90 yards on 23 carries – an average of 3.91 yards per attempt. That’s below his season average of 4.4. Along with an understandable lack of focus following the death of his son, Peterson is nursing a sore hamstring and missed practice this week.

Green Bay knows what’s coming Sunday. With Minnesota playing musical chairs under center, the Packers can almost forget the passing game and focus solely on stopping Peterson. The Cheese Heads are undergoing a defensive renaissance this fall and boast the third toughest rushing defense in the NFL. Teams are picking up only three yards per carry in the Packers last three games and Green Bay has faced some reputable rushing attacks this season.

Covers.com

- The Green Bay Packers are the top Covers consensus pick for Sunday at 72 percent. The Pack are 9.5-point road faves at Minnesota Sunday night.

Tale of the Tape: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings hope their latest foray into the national spotlight is more successful than their previous one.

Christian Ponder takes the latest spin on the Vikings' quarterbacking merry-go-'round as Minnesota hosts Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 23-7 loss to the previously winless New York Giants in the Monday nighter.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Led by the cannon arm of Rodgers, the Packers boast an impressive pass offense ranked fourth in the league in yards per game (300). Rodgers' 13 touchdown passes rank Green Bay in a tie for seventh-most in the NFL, and he has been intercepted just four times so far in 2013. The Packers' rush attack has been stout as well, averaging 134.7 yards per contest - sixth-most in the league.

The Minnesota QB carousel - featuring appearances by Ponder, Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman - has yielded predictably subpar results. The Vikings are averaging just 214 passing yards per game - tied with Seattle for 24th in the league - with five touchdowns and eight interceptions. The running game has been underwhelming, as well - despite boasting defending rushing champion Adrian Peterson, Minnesota ranks 19th in the NFL with 102 yards per game.

Edge: Green Bay

Defense

The Green Bay pass defense has struggled all season long. The Packers have yielded 267 yards through the air per game - tied for 23rd - with 12 touchdowns against and just three interceptions. The outlook has been much brighter when it comes to run defense, however. Green Bay has surrendered the fewest total rush yards (474), the third-lowest per-game average (79) and just three total touchdowns on the ground.

Minnesota's offensive struggles have been accentuated thanks to a pass defense that has also underperformed. The Vikings are getting torched for 289 passing yards per game - the fourth-highest mark in the league - while surrendering 14 touchdowns. Minnesota has been better in run defense, ranking 14th at 102.3 yards against per game while forcing five fumbles - tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.

Edge: Green Bay

Special Teams

There is no worse kick-return unit than Green Bay, which averages just 14.9 yards on 10 attempts. The Packers are more effective in the punt-return game, ranked 10th in the league at 9.7 yards per attempts. Green Bay is surrendering a league-high 29.5 yards per kickoff return but just 7.9 yards per punt return try. Packers kicker Mason Crosby has connected on 14 of 16 field-goal attempts, going 1-for-2 in last week's 31-13 triumph over the Cleveland Browns.

Minnesota is one of only two teams with a kickoff return touchdown this season, helping bolster its average return to 30.4 yards - good for second in the NFL. The Vikings also rank second in punt return average (15.9). Minnesota allows the second-highest kick return average (29.1) but ranks a respectable 11th in opposing punt return average (7.1). Minnesota kicker Blair Walsh is 9-for-11 on field goals, but is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Edge: Minnesota

Mighty Quinn

Packers

Cappers Access

Vikings +8

Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.0 - Green Bay at Minnesota

LINEBEATERS

Packers -9

The Gold Medal Club

#230 Minnesota +9.5

WinningAngleSports

Green Bay -9.5 over Minnesota

Marc Lawrence

3-Unit-Vikings

Platinum Plays
Best bet

the Green Bay Packers -9 over
the Minnesota Vikings

Totals 4 You
2013 National Football League Rivalry Total of the Year!!!!!
Green Bay/Minnesota under 47 1/2


Dave Cokin

Vikings +8.5

Intpicks

2* Minnesota +10

Sports In Sights

Best bet
Minny +9.5

Advanced Sports Investments
JIMMY

08:30PM Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
(Minnesota Vikings +8 -110)

Michaels

Vikings

Northcoast

Marquee
under 47 gb/minn

Sean Higgs

4* Vikings

From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

GREEN BAY (229) AT MINNESOTA (230)
Latest Line: MINNESOTA +8.0; Total: 47.0

NFC North foes going in different directions clash Sunday when the Packers face the Vikings. Green Bay has won three straight games, but hasn't covered on the road this year (0-2-1 ATS) and could be without three of its top four receivers in TE Jermichael Finley (head), WR James Jones (shin) and WR Randall Cobb (fibula). Minnesota's quarterback situation is a mess with Josh Freeman completing just 20-of-53 passes for 190 yards (3.6 YPA) and 1 INT in a horrible team debut Monday. The Packers are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this series since 2010, but the Vikings won 37-34 in Week 17 of last year to clinch a playoff spot.
FORECASTER: Green Bay 28, Minnesota 24

Seabass

100 units:
Green Bay

Ben Burns
Main Event
Vikings

Wayne Root

Inner Circle
Minnesota

Lenny Stevens

20* Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Sharps, public divided on Sunday nighter

An NFC North rivalry is renewed in this week's edition of Sunday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on the Sunday Night Football matchup and where oddsmakers see the line closing come kickoff:

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9, 47)

Christian Ponder is back under center for the Vikings and, truthfully, there is no place to go but up after the poor display from new-signing Josh Freeman against the Giants.

The Packers opened as double-digit faves at most wagering outlets and, despite the incredibly bad performance by the Vikes, action had come in on the dog.

"We opened the Packers -10 and figured 'who in their right mind would bet the Vikings' after witnessing their performance on Monday," said Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker wih CarbonSports.ag. "We immediately booked sharp action on the dog at +10, immediately went to 9.5 and again, another sharp bet on the dog. We went to 9 and dealt that line most of the week before today when we once again saw more sharp action on the Vikings."

Despite the flow of Sharp action on the home dog, Stewart says that earlier today, they were inundated with Packers money.

"All the betting public remembers is what they saw on Monday night and they always love betting the Packers every week," Stewart says. "It’s a case where the sharps are against the betting public, and it’s a case where we’re definitely on the side of the sharps."

Stewart anticipates a rush of more Packers money up until kickoff and knows this game will be big for his book.

"We’re going to continue to book Packers money for the rest of the day, throw in every teaser and parlay on this game has the Packers tied to them, this will be our biggest decision of the week."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Double Dragon:

9-Unit "Lectra-Hydra"
Vikings +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Night Football betting: Packers at Vikings

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5, 47)

Christian Ponder is expected back at quarterback when the Minnesota Vikings try to stun the visiting Green Bay Packers in Sunday night’s nationally televised contest. Recently acquired Josh Freeman bombed in his Minnesota debut and then was diagnosed with concussion-type symptoms, which is resulting in Ponder’s first start since Sept. 22. Green Bay has no such issues with Aaron Rodgers behind center, winning three consecutive games to lead the NFC North by a half-game over Chicago and Detroit.

Vikings receiver Greg Jennings, who played seven seasons with the Packers, sharply criticized Rodgers in the offseason but is taking a different approach leading up to his first game against his former team. “I can’t live in the past of what was said – I have to move on,” Jennings said in a conference call. “I know and you guys know that he’s a great quarterback.” Green Bay will be without several key players, including linebackers Clay Matthews (broken thumb) and Nick Perry (foot), tight end Jermichael Finley (neck) and receiver Randall Cobb (leg).

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Packers opened as 10-point road faves and are now -7.5. The total opened at 46.5 and is up to 47.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-2): Injuries to Cobb and James Jones (knee) opened the door for second-year receiver Jarrett Boykin, who had eight receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland last Sunday in his first NFL start. Rodgers has passed for 13 touchdowns against just four interceptions and the running game has been sparked by second-round pick Eddie Lacy, who has 301 rushing yards over the past three games and leads all NFL rookies with 352. Outside linebacker A.J. Hawk has been sensational with 54 tackles and three sacks but the Packers have forced just seven turnovers thus far.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-5): The return of Ponder (five interceptions and only two touchdowns) makes three different starting quarterbacks in three games after Matt Cassel two weeks ago and Freeman in last Monday night’s loss to the previously winless New York Giants. Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson, who is seventh in the NFL with 511 rushing yards despite an ailing hamstring, had a season-low 28 yards against the Giants while Jennings has struggled to make an impact with 24 receptions for 327 yards. Defensive end Jared Allen has four sacks but the defense is ranked just 27th by allowing 391.2 yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Vikings last four home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Minnesota recorded a 37-34 victory last Dec. 30 behind 199 rushing yards by Peterson to snap a five-game regular-season skid against Green Bay.

2. The Packers have allowed less than 85 rushing yards in each of their last four games and rank third in the NFL in rushing defense (79 per game).

3. Peterson rushed for 409 yards in two regular-season games against Green Bay last season but was limited to 99 in Minnesota’s playoff loss to the Packers.