10-28-13

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Today's NFL Pick

MONDAY, OCTOBER 28
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/23) Game 231-232: Seattle at St. Louis (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 138.973; St. Louis 125.491
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

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r.a.w. Football
3* = seattle

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NFL

Week 8

Seahawks (7-1) @ Rams (3-4)—Kellen Clemens gets first Ram start under center with Bradford (knee) out for year, not exactly what is needed vs Seattle team that is 14-2 in last 16 series games, though they did lose two of last three visits here, with average total in their last three visits here, 28.7. 4th road game in five weeks for Seattle, with all four games in domes; Seahawks are 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road, with wins on foreign soil by 5-3-12 points and 34-28 loss at Indy (led 12-0 early). Popular wisdom is that Rams will try to run more with backup QB, but defenses will load up box and make Clemens try and beat them; Rams are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points. On their first drive of game, St Louis has run 26 plays for 70 yards (2.7 ypp) for no points- they’ll need to get ahead early, to keep smallish crowd engaged. If Game 5 of World Series is going on couple of blocks away, this could be a very small crowd. Five of last six Seattle series wins are by 10+ points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. Four of last five Seattle games, six of seven St Louis tilts went over the total.

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College football odds: Week 10 opening line report

Is the state of Florida the 'King of Football' once again?

One thing is for certain, Week 10 of the college football schedule will bring us a matchup to determine who the king in the Sunshine State actually is when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida State Seminoles.

Both of these programs boast 7-0 records but it's the Seminoles who come in as the sexier team.

Another blowout victory, this time a 49-17 triumph over North Carolina State, has the Seminoles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) opening as huge home faves over the Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS).

The 'Canes keep winning, but not in the same, dominant fashion which their in-state rivals do.

They escaped Wake Forest as 24-21 victors, but were far from covering the daunting 26-point spread that oddsmakers installed.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says he and his team of oddsmakers are fully aware of the quality and talent on both sides, but sent out a big number of FSU -20 nonetheless.

"We sent out -20 but only see this number going higher. Florida State warrants it," Korner told Covers. "They're the 'it' team right now and they're looking better and better each week. Miami is good but they're facing a buzz saw this weekend."

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

Another classic in-state battle has the Michigan Wolverines (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) traveling to face the Michigan State Spartans (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS).

The visitors are coming off a bye week after putting up 63 points against offensive-oriented Indiana. It was a good bounceback game after suffering their first loss of the season to Penn State on Oct. 12.

The Spartans posted an impressive 42-3 victory over a slumping Illinois team for their fourth-straight victory.

Michigan backers have felt stung in the previous meetings between the two programs as the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

"Our range went from MSU -1.5 to -4.5 and settled at -3.5," Korner says. "It's a good rivalry game in which our numbers reflect a competitive contest. Michigan State should take care of business but the hook may grab some dog players early in the week."

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators (+1.5)

The 2013 edition of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" is set to go Saturday and both Georgia and Florida sport identical 4-3 records.

Both teams are coming in cold, however, having lost two straight games.

The Georgia Bulldogs (1-5-1 ATS) have severely cooled off since a great victory over LSU in Week 5. Their ATS record is dreadful and places near the bottom of the standings.

Coming off a much-needed bye week, the Gators (2-5 ATS) will look to capture their first Okefenokee Oar trophy since 2010.

"We were all on Georgia's side but between a PK and -2," Korner said. "We sent out GA -1.5 knowing this number can swing to Florida's side. Either one of these teams can win straight up so the number looks to be in the PK zone all week. We don't feel this number will take off either way."

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3)

The Red Raiders (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season against the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 9. Many felt their 7-0 record was potentially smoke and mirrors as it is and their competition in Week 10 is another power in the Sooner State.

After a shocking loss to West Virginia in Week 5, the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have rattled off three-straight victories, including a 58-27 thumping of Iowa State in Week 9.

Korner and his team like the Cowboys as field goal faves and are confident the number will swing throughout the week.

"We sent out Oklahoma State -3 and though we saw the offshores swung their number over to Texas Tech's side, we're not falling for it. Oklahoma State is the better team and that number will come back our way come kick off."

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Mighty Quinn

Seattle

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LINEBEATERS

Seahawks -11

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Monday Night Football betting: Seahawks at Rams

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+11.5, 42.5)

Having lost their starting quarterback for the season and whiffed on an attempt to lure Brett Favre out of retirement, the St. Louis Rams are facing the unenviable task of solving one of the league's most ferocious defenses in a prime-time matchup. Former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford suffered a torn ACL in last week's loss to Carolina, putting Kellen Clemens in the line of fire when the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks visit the Rams on Monday night.

The Seahawks have won two straight since their lone defeat at Indianapolis and hold a one-game lead over San Francisco atop the division. Seattle's calling card is a unit that is second in total defense (282.1 yards per game) and interceptions (11) and third in the league in points allowed with an average of 16.6 per game. Although the teams split a pair of narrow decisions last season, the Seahawks have won 14 of the last 16 against St. Louis.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Rams opened as 10-point home dogs and are now +11.5. The total opened 42.5.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-1): While Seattle's defense receives a ton of attention, the offense has been efficient behind second-year quarterback Russell Wilson and wrecking-ball running back Marshawn Lynch, who is second in the league in rushing with 578 yards. Wilson has thrown for 11 touchdowns versus four interceptions while awaiting the return of marquee wide receiver Percy Harvin, who returned to practice this week after undergoing hip surgery in preseason. The Seahawks are tied for second in turnover differential at plus-7 and have forced at least two in each game.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-4): St. Louis' modest two-game win streak came to a crashing halt last week at Carolina, a defeat magnified by the loss of Bradford. Clemens, a former second-round pick of the New York Jets who is in his third season with the Rams, has only 12 starts and 31 career appearances on his resume, posting a completion percentage of 51.8 and passer rating of 62.2. Clemens will be relying on a pair of the team's first-year players - wideout Tavon Austin leads all rookies with 29 receptions while running back Zac Stacy is averaging 70 yards rushing in his past three.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall.
* Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch has rushed for 100 yards in three straight against St. Louis.

2. The Rams are 30th in the league in rushing defense at 126.4 yards per game.

3. Wilson is seeking his sixth straight win against an NFC West opponent.

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Oct. 21-27.

Hot team

Minnesota Wild (3-0 SU)

The Wild had a great week as they posted victories over the Nashville Predators, Carolina Hurricanes and the Chicago Blackhawks. Minnesota has been paced by stellar goaltending from both Josh Harding and Niklas Backstrom. We'll see how strong the Wild are as the the 'Hawks come to town with revenge in mind Tuesday night.

Cold team

Detroit Red Wings (0-3 SU)

The Winged Wheel got off to a great start, typical of the stellar franchise. That went pear shaped quickly as the Wings have dropped four-straight games and lost all three efforts this past week. Even worse, the three losses came at home against San Jose, Ottawa and the New York Rangers.

Best Over play

Phoenix Coyotes (3-0 O/U)

The Coyotes are a young and exciting team and strong defensively. Supposedly. You'd think a blue line featuring Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle and Mike Smith between the pipes would keep scorelines low. Apparently not so. The 'Yotes sit 25th in the league with 3.17 and gave up seven to the Kings earlier this week.

Best Under play

Buffalo Sabres (1-2 O/U)

The lowly Sabres are the best Under play on the season at 3-9 O/U and have played under the total in back-to-back games heading into the new week. Buffalo is having huge problems lighting lamp and are dead-last in the league averaging 1.46 goals per game. On the flip side, goalies Ryan Miller and Jhonas Enroth were extremely good throughout the week. There's a good chance they could appease Under bettors this upcoming week as they face fellow low-scoring teams like the Dallas Stars and New York Rangers.

Surveying the schedule

- The Boston Bruins are a perfect 4-0 on the road and have two big road games this upcoming week. They are at the Pittsburgh Penguins Wednesday and at the New York Islanders Saturday evening.

- The Vancouver Canucks have been a dominant 5-2-1 against Eastern Conference opponents this season. The Canucks begin a a three-game road trip Monday night at Washington and then travel to Detroit Wednesday before facing the Leafs at Toronto Saturday night.

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NHL betting: Despite rule changes, Unders cashing in

Even with the expectation that goalscoring would increase (which it still may, of course) due to size restrictions on goalie equipment, NHL Unders are hitting at 55.26 percent in all games and 57.01 in non-overtime games heading into Sunday's action.

The new rule restricts the size of a goalies' pads, making them shorter and exposing a bit more of the five hole.

Another rule change, one that kind of slid under the radar, is the decrease in the size of the net. Due to this, there is more room behind the net, thus more space to set up and make pass, or even attempt a wrap around.

There are a number of teams that have posted excellent records skewing to the Under side to start the season.

The Buffalo Sabres (3-9 Over/Under), Montreal Canadiens (3-8 O/U), Philadelphia Flyers (2-7 O/U), Chicago Blackhawks (3-8 O/U), Minnesota Wild (3-7 O/U) and Boston Bruins (2-6 O/U) are the top under plays in the league at the moment.

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Dr. Ed Meyer (MTI Forcasting)| NFL Side pick232 STL 12.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 231 Seattle

Analysis:
This has been a solid spot for the Rams. They were inexplicably undisciplined and sloppy last week against the Panthers. Coach Fisher is an excellent head coach and should have them ready here. St Louis is 7-0 ATS as a dog vs a divisional opponent that has a better record, as can be seen with this SDQL text:

team=Rams and D and DIV and WP<o:WP and date>=20120101

In addition, the Rams are 6-0 ATS when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30, with the SDQL text:

team=Rams and oA(passes)<30 and date>=20120101

and a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The SDQL text is:

team=Rams and D and o:streak>=2 and date>=20120101

Regarding the Seahawks, they are playing very well and are being mentioned in debates on which is the best team in the league. The spot they are in, however, activates them for a strong play-against system. It reads, " TD-plus road favorites are 0-17 ATS when they had at least three sacks as a favorite in each of their last two games and they are not off a bye." The SDQL text is:

A and line<=-7 and 3<=p:sacks and 3<=pp:sacks and p:F and pp:F and date>=20051101 and NB

We first used this system in 2010, when it was just 0-10 ATS and it has been perfect since then. Note that these big road favorites are only 4-4 straight up their last eight. Historical results indicate that the points are the way to go here.

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LA Syndicate
World Series Game #5 Top Play - St Louis Cardinals

Chicago Syndicate
World Series Game #5 Top Play - Cardinals/Red Sox Under 7

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Today's MLB Picks

Boston at St. Louis

The Red Sox look to follow up their 4-2 win last night and build on their 10-1 record in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Boston is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, AUGUST 28 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 959-960: Boston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 17.122; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.569 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Under

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MLB

Lester is 5-1, 2.11 in his last seven starts, 2-1, 1.40 in three playoff starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts.

Wainwright is 5-0, 1.25 in his last six home starts, 2-2, 2.89 in his last four in playoffs. Cardinals scored once in his last two starts, but four of his last five starts went over the total.

Boston is 6-3 in its last nine games; they're 4-3 on road in playoffs.

St Louis won eight of last 12 games; they've allowed 13 runs in their nine postseason wins, 33 in six losses. Cardinals are 13-2 in their last 15 games at home- four of their last six games went over the total.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Minnesota won its last three games, allowing four goals.
-- Canucks won their last three games, all in OT/SO. Washington won three of its last four.

Cold teams
-- Buffalo lost 11 of its 13 games. Dallas Stars lost five of their last seven games.
-- Penguins lost their last three games, scoring four goals. Carolina lost five of its last seven.
-- Canadiens lost three of their last four games. First home game for 3-6 Rangers, after they remodeled Madison Square Garden.
-- Chicago lost three of its last five games.

Series records
-- Dallas Stars lost five of their last six games with Buffalo.
-- Penguins won six of their last seven games with Carolina.
-- Rangers lost their last three games with Montreal, outscored 8-1.
-- Blackhawks won six of last eight games with Minnesota (lost 5-3 Sat).
-- Canucks won four of last five games with Washington.

Totals
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of five Carolina home games stayed under the total.
-- All four Montreal road games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four Chicago road games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Vancouver home games stayed under the total.