10-30-13

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Cincinnati at Memphis: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-3)

Cincinnati has preyed on the bottom of the American Athletic Conference after enduring a great deal of adversity during its non-conference schedule. The Bearcats, who will travel to Memphis on Wednesday, lost quarterback Munchie Legaux to a season-ending knee injury in the second game of the season. Two weeks later, Cincinnati was dealt a more severe blow when freshman guard Ben Flick was killed and two other players were injured in a car accident following a victory at Miami (Ohio).

The Bearcats lost their first game following the accident, but have rebounded with home triumphs over Temple and Connecticut - teams that have yet to win a conference game. The Tigers are also searching for their first AAC victory, but held second-half leads on co-conference leaders Central Florida and Houston before falling in each contest. Memphis took its third straight loss in a 34-29 setback to Southern Methodist on Oct. 19, trailing by as many as 31 before scoring the final 26 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Cincinnati opened -3 and outside of a few books briefly going to -3.5, the spread has been steady at a field goal.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s with a 7 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms and winds blowing south from corner to corner at 9 mph.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (5-2, 2-1 American Athletic Conference, 3-4 ATS): Freshman receiver Mark Barr, one of the two players injured in the accident, was released from the hospital last week. Brendon Kay, who took over for Legaux following his injury, is completing 79.4 percent of his passes in conference play and tied a career high with four touchdown passes in the Bearcats’ 41-16 victory over Connecticut. The defense did its part as well against the Huskies, setting season highs for interceptions (three), sacks (eight) and tackles for loss (11).

ABOUT MEMPHIS (1-5, 0-3, 3-3 ATS): Despite allowing 460 yards to SMU, the Tigers rank 13th in FBS in total defense and are tied for 34th in scoring defense after finishing 51st and 80th, respectively, in 2012. Linebacker Ryan Coleman played a key role in the Tigers’ second-half surge, tying an NCAA record with two fumble returns for touchdowns. Memphis, which gives up an average of 80 penalty yards (the second-highest mark in FBS), drew nine flags for 110 yards against SMU – the second time it has surrendered at least 100 yards in penalties.

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bearcats are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Tiger's last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cincinnati and Memphis rank second and third, respectively, in the conference in total defense.

2. The Tigers have committed nine or more penalties in three of their six games.

3. The Bearcats allowed a second-half touchdown for the first time in five contests in their victory over Connecticut.

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Cardinals at Red Sox: What bettors need to know

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (-117, 7)

Boston leads series 3-2.

The Boston Red Sox rode David Ortiz to a World Series lead and are hoping the slugger has one more great game left this season. Ortiz will take his .733 World Series batting average into Game 6 when the Red Sox host the St. Louis Cardinals with a chance to close out the series. Ortiz matched a World Series record by reaching base safely in nine straight plate appearances and contributed three hits and an RBI to Game 5’s 3-1 victory.

The Cardinals will not only have to face Ortiz but Mike Napoli on Wednesday, with Ortiz moving back to the designated hitter spot and Napoli coming off the bench to play first base in the American League park. “The fact is we’re going home,” Red Sox manager John Farrell said. “Going back to a place that our guys love to play in, in front of our fans.” St. Louis could use some offense of its own after being limited to a total of three runs in the last two games. The bottom of the order is providing very little and the top two hitters (Matt Carpenter and Shane Robinson) combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts in Game 5.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 40s with partly cloudy skies and winds WNW at 3 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH John Lackey (0-1, 3.68)

Wacha is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four postseason starts but surrendered more than one run for the first time since Sept. 19 in Game 2 at Boston, yielding two runs on three hits and four walks. The 22-year-old needed a season-high 114 pitches to complete the six frames. Wacha allowed a two-run homer to Ortiz that briefly put the Red Sox on top in that contest.

Lackey went up against Wacha in Game 2 and left with a 2-1 lead after 6 1/3 innings despite being at just 95 pitches. Craig Breslow came on and allowed the inherited runners to score, saddling Lackey with the loss. The veteran came out of the bullpen in Game 4 and tossed a scoreless eighth on his between-starts throw day.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.
* Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 playoff road games.
* Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four Game 6 of a series.

UMP TRENDS - Jim Joyce:

* Over is 4-0 in Joyce's last four games behind home plate.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Joyce's last six interleague games behind home plate.
* Under is 13-6 in Joyce's last 19 games behind home plate vs. Boston.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox RF Shane Victorino (lower back) was held out of the starting lineup in Game 4 and 5 but was available off the bench.

2. Matt Holliday has both of the Cardinals’ home runs in the series and is 1-for-10 against Lackey in his career, with the lone hit a Game 2 triple.

3. Ortiz (11) needs two more hits to tie the record for a single World Series shared by Bobby Richardson (New York Yankees, 1964), Lou Brock (St. Louis, 1968) and Marty Barrett (Boston, 1986).

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Grizzlies at Spurs: What bettors need to know

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 188.5)

The San Antonio Spurs dealt the whole offseason with the pain of just missing the franchise’s fifth NBA title. They take the first steps toward recovery Wednesday when they host the Memphis Grizzlies, the team they swept in the Western Conference finals before losing to the Miami Heat in the oh-so-close championship series. The cores of both teams return, although Memphis has a new coach with former assistant David Joerger taking over for Lionel Hollins.

Both teams are expected to again compete in the talent-laden West, and San Antonio will do its best to shake its postseason heartbreak — but it won’t be easy. “We’re gonna continue to think about it, because it’s going to continue to hurt whether we talk about it or let it go or not,” Spurs star Tim Duncan said at the team’s media day last month. “When the regular season starts and the ball goes up, then we’ve got to focus on a whole ‘nother season.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Memphis), KENS (San Antonio)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (2012-13: 56-26, 46-34-2 ATS): Memphis returns all the key pieces from last year’s team that set a franchise record for wins. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are one of the league’s most formidable frontcourt duos, and Mike Conley has become a dependable point guard. The Grizzlies had a relatively quiet offseason but added big man Kosta Koufos and sharpshooter Mike Miller.

ABOUT THE SPURS (2012-13: 58-24, 39-41-2 ATS): The NBA’s model franchise for consistency didn’t do anything to shake that label in the offseason. Coach Gregg Popovich is back for his 18th season, and Duncan is right behind him with 17. With those two around, San Antonio has long been one of the league’s most difficult destinations for opponents, and that was no different last year when the Spurs went 35-6 at home in the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Popovich has been coaching the Spurs three times longer than the league’s next longest-tenured coach (Eric Spoelstra, who is entering his sixth season in Miami).

2. The Grizzlies have not won a season opener since the franchise moved to Memphis before the 2001-02 season.

3. The teams split their four regular-season games last year.

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Cincy seeks 3rd straight win Wednesday in Memphis
by Freddy Wander

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -2.5, Total: 44.5

Memphis looks to win its first conference game in the inaugural season of the American Athletic Conference, but 5-2 Cincinnati may have other plans when the schools meet on Wednesday night.

The Tigers made the move to the AAC this year in hopes of boosting their program and improving for the future, but at the moment the team has not improved over the past year. In the C-USA last season, they were a modest 4-4, but now in a stronger conference, Memphis lost its first three games. The Bearcats, on the other hand, were conference co-champions in the Big East last season and have gone 2-1 in conference this season; with their only loss coming in an emotional loss to USF, Cincinnati’s first game played after redshirt freshman Ben Flick died in a car crash. The Bearcats have been the better team all-time in this series and have gone 7-6 SU (8-5 ATS) against Memphis since 1992. The teams have not played since 2004 though, when the Bearcats defeated the Tigers 49-10 as 4.5-point underdogs. Although Cincinnati has been strong this year SU, it has gone only 3-4 ATS and was favored in both of its losses this season. Both teams have really struggled with turnovers in the 2013 campaign, with the Bearcats giving up the ball 15 times in their seven games and the Tigers equaling Cincinnati’s 15 turnovers, but in one less game.

The Bearcats have been strong this season in both facets of their offense. The passing game has averaged 275.1 YPG while the rushing attack has put up a modest 191.9 YPG, for 467 total YPG (34th in nation). QB Brendon Kay has done well after taking over the starting job midseason last year. He has 1,386 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Kay has been at the top of his game over the Bearcats' previous two games (Temple, Connecticut) completing 48-of-61 passes (79%) for 570 yards and six touchdowns (plus 2 rush TD). Cincinnati has used a wealth of HBs to put up numbers this season, with three different players having more than 50 carries so far. HB Hosey Williams leads the team in rushing yards (362) and is tied in rushing touchdowns (four) but has only 13 attempts on the ground over the past three games and did not play against Temple on Oct. 11. WR Anthony McClung has been the Bearcats’ biggest threat in the passing game this season with 364 yards on 28 receptions (13.0 avg.) and four touchdowns. LB Greg Blair (45 tackles) is a top NFL prospect and has helped lead a solid Bearcats defense, which is giving up only 17.6 points per game. In their five wins this season, their defense has really excelled, giving up an average of only 10.4 points per game.

Memphis has really struggled putting points on the board, averaging only 20.2 PPG which ranks near the very bottom in college football (108th). Through their struggles, the Tigers have stuck with their freshman QB Paxton Lynch. On the season, Lynch has thrown for 1,193 yards with only three touchdowns and five interceptions. He has eclipsed 35 attempts in each of his past three games (699 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), with the team losing all three contests. The run game has depended on the performance of HB Brandon Hayes, who has 444 yards on 88 attempts (5.0 YPC) and three touchdowns. No receiver has really taken over in the Memphis offense this season. TE Alan Cross has only seven catches for 53 yards on the year, but does have two of the three touchdown catches for the team. The Memphis defense has done well this year, allowing only 22.5 points per game and is seventh in the nation in rushing defense (99.0 rushing YPG).

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NBA Top 6: Easiest & Hardest Early Schedules

The NBA season kicks off Tuesday, and some teams will have an easier time of it than others in the early going.

Here are three teams with easy schedules over the first five games, along with three teams that have a tough opening sked:

Easy Schedules

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers represent one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference capable of knocking off the Miami Heat - and they've been handed a gift opening schedule. They'll kick off the season with games against non-contenders Orlando, New Orleans and Cleveland. A visit to Detroit is followed by Indiana's only tough game of the stretch, a home date with Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are expected to challenge for one of the final East playoff berths, and can bolster their chances - albeit infinitesimally - with a friendly opening stretch. Milwaukee opens on the road against the turmoil-riddled New York Knicks and putrid Boston Celtics, then return home to face Toronto, Cleveland and Dallas. A winning record over this span should be close to a given.

New York Knicks

Despite facing plenty of question marks about their roster, the Knicks have a favorable opening to the season. Consecutive games against Milwaukee and Chicago should provide a stiff test, but with just three games over the next nine days - one against Minnesota and two against woeful Charlotte - New York should be fresh and competitive in the second half of that stretch.

Hard Schedules

Houston Rockets

No team has a busier early stretch than the Rockets, who play their first five games in a seven-day span. The only easy one in that stretch is the home opener at Charlotte, but Houston will entertain the Dallas Mavericks two nights later before hitting the road for a three-game trek. Facing games against the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers in a four-game stretch will test Houston's early-season fitness level.

Atlanta Hawks

It's unclear who the Hawks ticked off at the league office, but something must have happened for Atlanta to end up with such a bizarre - and demanding - season-opening docket. Atlanta visits Dallas in its opener before traveling back to Georgia for a one-game homestand against Toronto. That's followed by road games against the L.A. Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Denver Nuggets.

Philadelphia 76ers

The good news for Philadelphia - and there isn't that much this season - is that they'll play five of their first six games at home. The bad news: three of those games come against legitimate conference contenders - Miami, Chicago and Golden State. Add in a pair of games against the improving Washington Wizards, and the 76ers may find themselves 0-5 to open the campaign.

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WINNING POINTS

NBA Wednesday, Oct. 30
Miami over *Philadelphia by 16
Forget that Miami is playing a second straight night and could be in a letdown spot.
No team is worse than Philadelphia.
MIAMI 98-82.

Brooklyn over *Cleveland by 2
Cleveland's young talent needs time to gel while the Nets' new veteran talent needs
time to get to know each other.
BROOKLYN 94-92.

*Toronto over Boston by 8
Boston's star veterans are gone and Rajon Rondo isn't back yet so this is going to be
a tough debut for Brad Stevens.
TORONTO 102-94.

*Detroit over Washington by 6
The Wizards failed to cover their past three opening games.
DETROIT 96-90.

*New York over Milwaukee by 7
The Knicks have a bigger game the following night. 100-93.

*Houston over Charlotte by 16
Al Jefferson is questionable for Charlotte and the Rockets would like to justify their
preseason hype with a blowout home-opening victory.
HOUSTON 109-93.

*Minnesota over Orlando by 9
The T’wolves have a healthy roster for the first time in years.
MINNESOTA 98-89.

**PREFERRED
*New Orleans over Indiana by 10
The Pacers struggled during preseason, Danny Granger still can't be relied upon and
the Pelicans are dangerous when healthy and have upgraded their backcourt with Jrue
Holiday.
NEW ORLEANS 94-84.

*Dallas over Atlanta by 4
There's going to be a learning curve for the Hawks early with a new coach bringing in
a different offensive and defensive system.
DALLAS 102-98.

*San Antonio over Memphis by 3
Big revenge spot for the Grizzlies, who were swept by the Spurs in the Western
Conference finals.
SAN ANTONIO 92-89.

Oklahoma City over *Utah by 6
The Thunder don't need injured Russell Westbrook to beat youthful and rebuilding
Utah on the road.
OKLAHOMA CITY 98-92.

*Phoenix over Portland by 4
The Suns have covered the past four times in this series and are 3-0 SU and ATS at
home the past two seasons against the Trail Blazers.
PHOENIX 103-99.

Denver over *Sacramento by 7
The Nuggets have won and covered in their last four visits to Sacramento, including
going 2-0 last season winning by an average of 16 points.
DENVER 103-96.

**PREFERRED
Los Angeles Lakers over *Golden State by 2
Having already played a game could prove a positive for the Lakers as they adjust to
playing without Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. The Warriors are weak defensively
and not a strong rebounding team.
LA LAKERS 105-103.

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Two for Tuesday
by GT Staff

2 for Tuesday by Richard Saber

1) Cincinnati -3 at Memphis (NCAA)
Found nothing we liked Tuesday so making this a Wednesday special. We have a feeling about the improved Tigers, especially home. They played well against UCF and Houston. MEMPHIS.

2) Cincinnati at Memphis (46 total)
This total can only go higher so wait before you plunge. Before last week Memphis had played all of its games below the posted total. Look for them to try and control the ball. UNDER

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB CINCINNATI at MEMPHIS
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game
58-37 over the last 10 seasons. ( 61.1% 0.0 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )

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Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Boston

The Red Sox look to clinch the title and build on their 6-1 record in John Lackey's last 7 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Boston is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30 Time Posted: 6:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 961-962: St. Louis at Boston (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 16.408; Boston (Lackey) 17.883 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Cincinnati at Memphis

The Tigers look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is coming off a 41-16 win over Connecticut and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Memphis is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3). Here are all of this week's lined games.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30 Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 301-302: Cincinnati at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 80.181; Memphis 82.340 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2; 40 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); Under

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MLB

Wacha is 5-0, 0.76 in his last five starts, allowing 22 baserunners in 35.2 IP in those five games (10 H, 12 BB); four of his last five starts stayed under total.

Lackey threw 17 pitches in a scoreless 8th inning Sunday; he is 2-1, 3.44 in his three playoff starts. Eight of his last eleven home starts stayed under total.

Cardinals were delayed several hours flying out of St Louis Tuesday, didn't get to Boston until 11pm or so; they're 3-4 on road in playoffs. Cardinals scored total of 12 runs in their seven playoff losses, 43 in their nine wins. Three of last four games in this series stayed under the total

Boston is 5-2 at Fenway during postseason; they're 2-4 in playoffs when they allow 4+ runs, 8-1 when they do not. Last time Red Sox won World Series at home, Babe Ruth was a defensive replacement-- 1918.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Bruins won four of their last five games.
-- Maple Leafs won three of their last four games. Calgary won its last three home games.
-- Vancouver won its last four games, all by one goal, three in OT/SO.
-- Sharks won ten of their first twelve games. Kings won four of six road games.

Cold teams
-- Penguins lost three of their last four games.
-- Detroit lost its last four games, outscored 15-5.

Series records
-- Bruins swept Pittsburgh in playoffs 4-0 LY, after having lost six in row to Penguins coming into that series.
-- Flames won three of last four games with Toronto.
-- Red Wings won six of last nine visits to Vancouver.
-- Home team won last 12 San Jose-LA games; Kings beat Sharks in seven games in last spring's playoffs; losing teams scored seven goals in seven games.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Boston-Pittsburgh games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Toronto road games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Vancouver home games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four San Jose games stayed under the total.

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Today's NBA Picks

Memphis at San Antonio

The Spurs look to open the season and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus the Grizzlies. San Antonio is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Miami at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.110 Philadelphia 119.957 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 12; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+12); Over

Game 703-704: Brooklyn at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.224; Cleveland 113.862 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 191 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3 1/2; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.216; Toronto 117.193 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8 1/2; 189 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+8 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Washington at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.580; Detroit 119.118 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 190 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under

Game 709-710: Milwaukee at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 113.943; New York 125.530 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 191 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 8; 196 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (-8); Under

Game 711-712: Charlotte at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 112.677; Houston 121.453 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 9; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 12 1/2; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+12 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Orlando at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 112.332; Minnesota 118.182 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 197 Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+10); Over

Game 715-716: Indiana at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.805; New Orleans 115.832 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 184 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2); Under

Game 717-718: Atlanta at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.688; Dallas 118.734 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 196 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2); Over

Game 719-720: Memphis at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.728; San Antonio 134.285 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 183 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 188 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5); Under

Game 721-722: Oklahoma City at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.012; Utah 117.113 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 195 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-6); Under

Game 723-724: Portland at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 111.175; Phoenix 117.092 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 198 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+6); Over

Game 725-726: Denver at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.759; Sacramento 118.716 Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 210 Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 205 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

Game 727-728: LA Lakers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.326; Golden State 128.928 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 16 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 12; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-12); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

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